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Ontrak (OTRK)
NASDAQ:OTRK
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Ontrak
(NASDAQ:OTRK)
39Underperform
Ontrak (OTRK) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$6.37M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)12.80K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.99
Revenue Growth-4.05%
EPS Growth89.52%
CountryUS
Employees102
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength69
IndustryMedical - Healthcare Information Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-10.58
Shares Outstanding4,217,846
10 Day Avg. Volume15,658
30 Day Avg. Volume12,798
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)0.58
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)-1.20
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$4.00Price Target Upside154.78% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering0
Ontrak Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionOntrak, Inc. is a healthcare technology company that focuses on helping its clients, primarily health plans, improve the health and well-being of their members through data-driven solutions. The company specializes in offering behavioral health management services that integrate care coaching, analytics, and digital interventions to address chronic health conditions, particularly those with underlying behavioral health issues. Ontrak's services aim to enhance patient engagement and care outcomes while reducing healthcare costs.
How the Company Makes MoneyOntrak makes money through contracts with health plans, insurers, and employer groups by providing its behavioral health management services. The company operates on a value-based care model, where it receives payments based on the success of its interventions in improving patient outcomes and reducing healthcare costs. Revenue is generated primarily from the fees charged for its health management services, which are often structured as performance-based arrangements, aligning Ontrak's income with the cost savings and health improvements achieved for its clients. Key factors contributing to its earnings include the efficacy of its intervention programs, the scale of partnerships with healthcare payers, and the expansion of its service offerings to cover more health conditions or populations.
Ontrak Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Ontrak's financial health is weak, with persistent losses affecting profitability and cash flow. The company's revenue has declined significantly, and it relies heavily on external financing. While the balance sheet shows some stability, negative cash flows and net losses pose significant risks.Income Statement
The company's income statement shows persistent losses with negative net income and operating margins over time. Despite a high gross profit margin of 54.3% in TTM, revenue has decreased significantly from 2021 levels, indicating volatility and challenges in maintaining revenue growth. The net profit margin remains negative, reflecting ongoing profitability issues.25
Negative
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet indicates moderate equity with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.71 in TTM, suggesting a balanced capital structure. However, stockholders' equity has decreased substantially from previous years, indicating potential financial strain. The return on equity is negative due to net losses, undermining investor confidence.35
Negative
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis reveals negative free cash flow in TTM, reflecting challenges in generating sufficient cash to cover operational needs. Operating cash flow to net income ratio is unfavorable, highlighting inefficiencies in cash generation from operations. The company has relied significantly on financing activities to manage cash requirements.20
Very Negative
| Breakdown | |||||
| TTM | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 | Dec 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | ||||
| 11.24M | 12.74M | 14.51M | 84.13M | 82.84M | 35.09M | Gross Profit |
| 6.10M | 8.80M | 7.05M | 52.92M | 39.23M | 14.69M | EBIT |
| -18.35M | -20.68M | -43.18M | -19.03M | -14.92M | -20.01M | EBITDA |
| -16.25M | -14.42M | -42.38M | -24.65M | -14.92M | -21.78M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -26.72M | -27.92M | -51.57M | -37.14M | -22.71M | -26.17M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | ||||
| 11.11M | 9.70M | 5.03M | 58.82M | 86.91M | 13.61M | Total Assets |
| 15.90M | 19.85M | 25.76M | 93.68M | 144.70M | 23.86M | Total Debt |
| 9.48M | 1.69M | 11.26M | 37.45M | 47.97M | 34.19M | Net Debt |
| 7.59M | -8.01M | 6.23M | -21.37M | -38.93M | 20.57M | Total Liabilities |
| 15.01M | 5.58M | 20.08M | 48.13M | 83.95M | 47.76M | Stockholders Equity |
| 892.00K | 14.27M | 5.68M | 45.55M | 60.75M | -23.91M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | ||||
| -12.95M | -15.78M | -25.12M | -30.64M | -8.04M | -16.90M | Operating Cash Flow |
| -12.76M | -15.50M | -23.97M | -26.16M | -6.28M | -16.90M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -191.00K | -285.00K | -1.16M | -4.48M | -4.64M | 0.00 | Financing Cash Flow |
| 11.69M | 15.77M | -31.11M | -6.63M | 100.11M | 27.35M |
Ontrak Technical Analysis
Positive
1.57
Price Trends
1.52
Positive
1.61
Negative
2.26
Negative
Market Momentum
>-0.01
Negative
45.03
Neutral
11.11
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OTRK, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1.57 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.52, above the 50-day MA of 1.52, and below the 200-day MA of 2.26, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 45.03 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.11 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for OTRK.
Ontrak Risk Analysis
Ontrak disclosed 60 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ontrak reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Ontrak Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (48)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
56 Neutral | $1.85B | 29.58 | 4.87% | ― | 8.33% | 256.54% | |
48 Neutral | $6.35B | 1.19 | -46.26% | 2.67% | 19.24% | 1.75% | |
43 Neutral | $110.21M | ― | -54.13% | ― | -1.81% | 70.88% | |
40 Underperform | $195.53M | ― | -154.01% | ― | 187.79% | 32.40% | |
39 Underperform | $6.37M | ― | -782.98% | ― | -4.05% | 89.52% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
OTRK
Ontrak
1.57
-5.03
-76.21%
OCGN
Ocugen
0.69
-0.90
-56.60%
LIVN
LivaNova
33.96
-19.41
-36.37%
AMWL
American Well
7.06
-4.09
-36.68%
Ontrak Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Nov 13, 2024 | % Change Since: -16.49% | Next Earnings Date: Apr 14, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted significant new customer acquisitions and expansion of services, showcasing growth in the sales pipeline and improvement in outreach success rates. However, these positive developments are counterbalanced by declines in revenue and gross margin, alongside negative cash flow. Despite the challenges, there is a positive outlook for future revenue growth.Highlights
New Customer Expansion
Ontrak Health expanded its services to Sentara Health plans, offering its Engage solution to approximately 20,000 planned members, including specialized care coaching.
Success in Sales Pipeline
Secured 2 new regional health plan customers and 4 health plan expansions since January 2024, demonstrating versatility across various plan types such as Medicaid and Medicare Advantage.
High Outreach Success Rate
Achieved a greater than 50% outreach success rate, more than double the industry standard, positively impacting HEDIS scores for clients.
New Customer and Product Launches
Announced signing of a large health plan in the Northeast, expanding services to include Ontrak's quality solutions, helping to close over 30,000 HEDIS gaps in care.
Positive Revenue Projections
Current customers under contract account for $11 million to $13 million of annual revenue, with potential new deals adding $9 million to $12 million of additional revenue.
Lowlights
Revenue Decline
Q3 revenue of $2.6 million, a 31% decrease compared to the same period last year due to the loss of a customer.
Decreased Revenue per Member
Quarterly revenue per health plan enrolled member per month decreased to $449 from $552 in Q3 2023, mainly due to new customer pricing structures.
Reduced Gross Margin
Gross margin reduced to 62% from 72% in Q3 2023, with expectations of potential slight decreases during new customer expansions.
Negative Cash Flow
Operating cash flow for Q3 was negative $1.4 million, though this was an improvement from negative $4.5 million in Q2 2024.
Company Guidance
During the Q3 2024 earnings call for Ontrak Health, several key metrics and guidance points were discussed. Brandon LaVerne highlighted the company's expansion with Sentara Health plans, which will offer the Engage solution to approximately 20,000 members, focusing on those with rising health risks. The company secured two new regional health plan customers and four expansions since January 2024, covering Medicaid, HARP, commercial, and marketplace plans. The pipeline is robust, with 4 late-stage prospects, including a potential partnership with a prominent healthcare system in the West and a large Blues plan in the Midwest, representing significant growth opportunities. Mary Lou Osborne mentioned that Ontrak's quality solutions aim to close over 30,000 HEDIS gaps in care, achieving a greater than 50% outreach success rate. Financially, James Park reported Q3 revenue of $2.6 million, a 31% decrease year-over-year, with a gross margin of 62% and a projected Q4 revenue increase to $2.9 million-$3.2 million. The company's cash reserves stood at $8 million, with $11 million to $13 million in annual revenue from current contracts and an additional $9 million to $12 million potential revenue from near-term opportunities.Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.