Oshkosh (OSK) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $9.27B
• Dividend Yield: 1.56%
• Average Volume (3M): 796.21K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.5
• Beta (1Y): 1.31
• Revenue Growth: -2.28%
• EPS Growth: -0.53%
• Country: US
• Employees: 18,000
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Agricultural - Machinery
• EPS (TTM): 2.26
• Shares Outstanding: 62,548,630
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 652,919
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 796,207
• PEG Ratio: -4.18
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.78
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.77
• P/FCF Ratio: 13.05
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.12
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.00
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.70
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 8.75
• 1Y Price Target: $171.58
• Price Target Upside: 15.72% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12
• EPS Forecast (FY): 11.33
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $10.92B

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: $159.00 ▲(7.24% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 03/17/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 03/17/26

The score is driven by generally solid fundamentals (improving profitability/ROE and conservative leverage) and supportive valuation, partly offset by weak technical momentum and earnings-call near-term headwinds (tariffs, Access softness, and ramp-related margin volatility despite constructive 2026/2028 guidance).

Positive Factors

Vocational segment strength & backlog

A >$6.6B vocational backlog and high vocational margins provide multi-quarter revenue visibility and margin stability. Strong fire apparatus deliveries and municipal demand reduce near-term cyclicality, support aftermarket parts/service revenue, and underpin predictable cash flows for the core business.

Improved free cash flow generation

Material FCF conversion (~79% of net income) and ~$618M free cash flow in 2025 strengthen the firm's ability to fund dividends, repurchases, modest capex and sustain working capital through cycles. While past volatility exists, current cash generation quality supports capital allocation discipline and balance sheet flexibility.

Conservative leverage and improved liquidity

A conservative debt profile (debt/equity ~0.21–0.26) combined with a new $1.6B revolver and aligned term loan extends liquidity, lowers refinancing risk and preserves capacity for strategic M&A or cyclical downturns. This structural financing upgrade supports funding flexibility over multiple years.

Negative Factors

Significant tariff headwinds

An estimated ~$200M incremental tariff hit in 2026 meaningfully depresses margins and requires either higher customer pricing, absorption of costs, or engineering/reshoring investments. Persistent or escalating tariffs introduce structural margin risk and uncertainty into multi-year profitability and pricing strategies.

Access segment demand softness

Guidance implies mid-term weakness in Access, reducing volume and utilization for JLG products. Lower Access volumes compress fixed-cost absorption and aftermarket cadence, raising the risk of margin pressure and uneven production throughput over coming quarters while recovery is dependent on end-market construction and rental trends.

NGDV/Transport ramp-related margin drag

Transport margins remain low due to NGDV scale-up, fixed-price contract transitions and engineering investments. Ramp-related costs and mix shifts are backloaded, implying ongoing margin dilution at the consolidated level until volume and pricing normalize, creating multi-quarter profit variability risk.

Oshkosh Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Oshkosh Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets specialty vehicles and vehicle bodies worldwide. The company's Access Equipment segment provides aerial work platforms and telehandlers for use in various construction, industrial, institutional, and general maintenance applications. This segment also offers rental fleet loans and leases, and floor plan and retail financing through third-party funding arrangements; towing and recovery equipment; carriers and wreckers; equipment installation services; and chassis and service parts sales. Its Defense segment provides heavy, medium, and light tactical wheeled vehicles and related services for the department of defense. The company's Fire & Emergency segment offers custom and commercial firefighting vehicles and equipment; and commercial fire apparatus and emergency vehicles, such as pumpers, aerial platform, ladder and tiller trucks, tankers, rescue vehicles, wild land rough terrain response vehicles, mobile command and control centers, bomb squad vehicles, hazardous materials control vehicles, and other emergency response vehicles. This segment also provides aircraft rescue and firefighting, snow removal, and broadcast vehicles, as well as command trucks, and military simulator shelters and trailers. Its Commercial segment offers front-and rear-discharge concrete mixers for the concrete ready-mix industry; refuse collection vehicles and related components to commercial and municipal waste haulers; and field service vehicles and truck-mounted cranes for the construction, equipment dealer, building supply, utility, tire service, railroad, and mining industries. Oshkosh Corporation provides its products through direct sales representatives, dealers, and distributors. The company was formerly known as Oshkosh Truck Corporation and changed its name to Oshkosh Corporation in February 2008. Oshkosh Corporation was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Oshkosh, Wisconsin.

How the Company Makes Money

Oshkosh makes money primarily by manufacturing and selling specialty vehicles and equipment, recognized as revenue when products are delivered/accepted under customer contracts. Its key revenue streams are: (1) Access Equipment: sales of aerial work platforms and telehandlers (commonly marketed under the JLG brand) to equipment dealers, rental companies, and end users in construction and industrial maintenance; this segment typically generates revenue from new equipment sales and related aftermarket parts and service support. (2) Vocational: sales of purpose-built vehicles for municipal and industrial applications—such as fire and emergency apparatus (Pierce), refuse collection vehicles (McNeilus), and concrete mixers and related products—sold to municipalities, contractors, and private fleet operators, with additional recurring revenue from parts, service, and maintenance support over the equipment life cycle. (3) Defense: sales of military trucks and tactical/wheeled vehicles and related sustainment/support work under government contracts, primarily with the U.S. Department of Defense and allied customers; revenue in this segment is driven by contract awards for new vehicle production and by ongoing support/sustainment activities tied to fielded fleets. Across segments, earnings are influenced by production volumes, pricing, product mix, input costs, and the level of aftermarket parts and service activity. Specific material partnerships driving earnings: null.

Oshkosh Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Fundamentals are solid but mixed: profitability and ROE improved versus 2022 and leverage is conservative, but 2025 revenue declined versus 2024 with slight margin compression. Cash flow improved in 2025, yet the track record is volatile with uneven cash conversion.

Income Statement

Revenue scale is solid, with strong multi-year growth from 2021–2024, but 2025 revenue slipped versus 2024. Profitability has improved meaningfully versus 2022 (net margin ~2.1% in 2022 to ~6.2% in 2025), and operating profitability is healthy for the group (2025 operating margin ~9.2%, EBITDA margin ~11.4%). The key watch-out is modest margin compression in 2025 versus 2024 (gross, operating, and net margins all slightly lower), suggesting cost or mix pressure.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks conservative and stable, with debt-to-equity around ~0.21–0.26 across 2021–2025 and 2025 total debt (~$1.10B) well supported by a larger equity base (~$4.53B). The balance sheet has also grown (assets up from ~$6.85B in 2021 to ~$10.07B in 2025), indicating expanded capacity/operations. Returns on equity are strong in 2023–2025 (~14%–16%) but remain below the 2024 peak and well above the weaker 2022 level, implying improved but not fully consistent earnings efficiency.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is positive and improved in 2025, with operating cash flow rising to ~$783M and free cash flow up to ~$618M. Free cash flow quality versus earnings is good in 2025 (free cash flow about ~79% of net income), and markedly better than 2023–2024. The main weakness is volatility: free cash flow growth is negative in multiple years (including a sharp drop in 2025 vs 2024), and cash conversion versus reported earnings appears uneven (operating cash flow relative to net income remains low in the provided data), which increases uncertainty around consistency of cash returns.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Sep 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	10.42B	10.73B	9.66B	8.28B	7.74B
Gross Profit	1.76B	1.97B	1.68B	1.05B	1.27B
EBITDA	1.18B	1.22B	1.03B	436.60M	697.50M
Net Income	647.00M	681.40M	598.00M	173.90M	508.90M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	10.07B	9.42B	9.13B	7.73B	6.85B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	479.80M	204.90M	125.40M	805.90M	995.70M
Total Debt	1.54B	961.80M	772.50M	604.70M	819.00M
Total Liabilities	5.54B	5.27B	5.42B	4.54B	3.65B
Stockholders Equity	4.53B	4.15B	3.71B	3.19B	3.20B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	618.00M	269.10M	274.30M	331.80M	1.11B
Operating Cash Flow	783.40M	550.10M	599.60M	601.30M	1.22B
Investing Cash Flow	-204.90M	-388.80M	-1.29B	-300.40M	-245.60M
Financing Cash Flow	-315.90M	-75.10M	3.40M	-485.00M	-180.40M

Oshkosh Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 148.27
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OSK, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 148.27 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 163.24, below the 50-day MA of 158.41, and above the 200-day MA of 134.56, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -3.53 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.16 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 6.69 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for OSK.

Oshkosh Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ALG	70 Outperform	$2.03B	19.44	9.32%	0.69%	-2.73%	-2.91%
LNN	70 Outperform	$1.22B	18.89	14.01%	1.24%	11.41%	13.05%
TEX	67 Neutral	$6.68B	15.89	11.16%	1.24%	4.60%	-65.73%
OSK	66 Neutral	$9.27B	12.46	14.57%	1.56%	-2.28%	-0.53%
AGCO	66 Neutral	$8.15B	10.68	17.36%	1.10%	-20.09%	121.28%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
CNH	59 Neutral	$12.56B	22.56	6.58%	2.67%	-18.10%	-65.24%

Oshkosh Corporate Events

Oshkosh Expands and Aligns Long-Term Credit Facilities

On March 16, 2026, Oshkosh Corporation replaced its prior $1.55 billion unsecured revolving credit facility with a new Fourth Amended and Restated Credit Agreement providing a $1.6 billion unsecured revolver maturing in March 2031, with the option to expand total credit capacity by up to $800 million subject to lender consent and customary conditions. The facility, which includes multi-currency borrowing options, variable interest rates tied to benchmarks such as Term SOFR, SONIA and EURIBOR, and fees on unused commitments and letters of credit, imposes leverage ratio covenants, merger and lien restrictions, and standard default provisions that could accelerate repayment, underscoring Oshkosh’s ongoing focus on long-term liquidity, disciplined leverage and financial flexibility.

Also on March 16, 2026, Oshkosh amended its existing $500 million unsecured term loan facility with PNC Bank to align key terms with the new revolving Credit Agreement, creating a more consistent covenant and documentation framework across its primary debt arrangements. This coordinated refinancing and alignment of credit terms is expected to streamline lender relationships, enhance the company’s ability to fund strategic acquisitions within defined leverage thresholds and reinforce its position in the credit markets while maintaining covenant discipline.

The most recent analyst rating on (OSK) stock is a Buy with a $180.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Oshkosh stock, see the OSK Stock Forecast page.