Octave Specialty Group (OSG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $376.35M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 774.57K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.92
• Revenue Growth: -37.46%
• EPS Growth: -117.36%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,078
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Oil & Gas Midstream
• EPS (TTM): N/A
• Shares Outstanding: 43,812,035
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 701,699
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 774,574
• PEG Ratio: -1.91
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.55
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.80
• P/FCF Ratio: 3.76
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.87
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 7.11
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -41.83
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -4.97
• 1Y Price Target: $15.00
• Price Target Upside: 74.62% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.68
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $85.59M

No summary available

Octave Specialty Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ambac Financial Group, Inc. (AMBC) is a financial services holding company primarily focused on the municipal bond insurance industry. The company provides financial guarantees and credit enhancement to a diverse range of public sector transactions, including municipal bonds, structured finance, and other debt obligations. Ambac operates mainly in the United States but also engages in international markets, offering products and services designed to enhance the credit quality of issuers and facilitate their access to capital markets.

How the Company Makes Money

Ambac Financial generates revenue primarily through the issuance of financial guarantees and credit enhancements for municipal bonds and structured finance products. The company collects premiums from issuers for providing these guarantees, which are based on the risk associated with the underlying debt. Additionally, Ambac earns income from investment income generated from its own portfolio of investments, which include fixed-income securities. The company may also receive fees for advisory services and asset management. Partnerships with municipalities and financial institutions further bolster its revenue streams, as these relationships help Ambac to secure a steady flow of business in both the public and private sectors.

Octave Specialty Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Ambac Financial is facing significant financial challenges, with a dramatic net loss and declining revenues. The elimination of debt is a positive step, but the low equity ratio and poor cash flow metrics highlight vulnerabilities.

Income Statement

Ambac Financial's income statement reveals significant challenges. The company experienced a dramatic net loss in 2024, with a negative net profit margin of -235.9%, down from a modest profit in 2023. Revenue growth has been erratic, with a decrease of 12.3% in 2024 following a decline from 2022 to 2023. The absence of EBIT and EBITDA in 2024 further highlights operational difficulties.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a decrease in stockholders' equity, reducing from $1.36 billion in 2023 to $379 million in 2024, indicating a weakened equity position. However, the company has removed its debt obligations, improving its debt-to-equity ratio from high levels in previous years. Despite this, the equity ratio is relatively low at 6.1%, suggesting potential financial instability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a sharp decline in operating cash flow from $200 million in 2023 to $762,000 in 2024, illustrating cash generation issues. The free cash flow has also deteriorated, reflected in a negligible free cash flow growth rate. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is unfavorable, reflecting poor cash conversion efficiency.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020	Dec 2019
Income Statement
Total Revenue	99.13M	451.87M	466.80M	359.06M	418.69M	355.55M
Gross Profit	-16.86M	125.15M	90.18M	193.00K	67.29M	57.66M
EBITDA	-141.81M	165.38M	139.74M	40.15M	101.01M	95.48M
Net Income	-780.16M	62.45M	26.56M	-46.25M	30.00M	8.68M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.15B	1.08B	1.14B	1.12B	1.23B	1.18B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	478.69M	91.16M	78.73M	83.17M	69.70M	41.50M
Total Debt	0.00	573.89M	657.07M	640.90M	692.25M	705.25M
Total Liabilities	1.00B	724.83M	799.38M	777.12M	851.93M	833.92M
Stockholders Equity	843.38M	354.05M	339.69M	338.61M	379.81M	341.55M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-34.95M	72.17M	66.47M	-19.63M	-9.92M	-59.87M
Operating Cash Flow	-34.95M	102.96M	72.82M	-11.83M	52.67M	73.45M
Investing Cash Flow	112.78M	-30.79M	-21.15M	24.34M	-78.15M	-129.91M
Financing Cash Flow	-78.88M	-74.64M	-56.20M	931.00K	53.63M	17.50M

Octave Specialty Group Technical Analysis

• Last Price: 8.59

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OSG, the sentiment is undefined. The current price of 8.59 is equal to the 20-day moving average (MA) of ―, equal to the 50-day MA of ―, and equal to the 200-day MA of ―, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of ― indicates undefined momentum. The RSI at ― is undefined, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of ― is undefined, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a undefined sentiment for OSG.

Octave Specialty Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%