Octave Specialty Group (OSG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $251.92M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 749.19K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.92
• Revenue Growth: -37.46%
• EPS Growth: -117.36%
• Country: US
• Employees: 380
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Insurance - Specialty
• EPS (TTM): -0.21
• Shares Outstanding: 43,812,035
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 528,569
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 749,192
• PEG Ratio: >-0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.69
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.52
• P/FCF Ratio: 779.75
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.88
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.23
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -13.11
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -1.56
• 1Y Price Target: $15.00
• Price Target Upside: 160.87% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 43 Neutral
• Price Target: $6.00 ▲(4.35% Upside)

The score is primarily held down by very poor TTM financial performance (large losses and negative cash flow) and a clearly bearish technical trend (price below major moving averages with negative MACD). Offsetting this, the earnings call indicates meaningful strategic actions (asset sale, buybacks, cost reductions, and growth initiatives), and the balance sheet shows improved leverage, but operating results remain the key risk.

Octave Specialty Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Octave Specialty Group, Inc. operates as a financial services holding company. It operates in two segments, Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance; and Insurance Distribution. The Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance segment provides specialty property and casualty program insurance with a focus on commercial and personal liability risks. The Insurance Distribution segment offers specialty property and casualty insurance distribution services, which include managing general agents, underwriters, insurance broker, and other distribution and underwriting businesses. The company was formerly known as Ambac Financial Group, Inc. and changed its name to Octave Specialty Group, Inc. in November 2025. The company was founded in 1971 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

How the Company Makes Money

Ambac Financial generates revenue primarily through the issuance of financial guarantees and credit enhancements for municipal bonds and structured finance products. The company collects premiums from issuers for providing these guarantees, which are based on the risk associated with the underlying debt. Additionally, Ambac earns income from investment income generated from its own portfolio of investments, which include fixed-income securities. The company may also receive fees for advisory services and asset management. Partnerships with municipalities and financial institutions further bolster its revenue streams, as these relationships help Ambac to secure a steady flow of business in both the public and private sectors.

Octave Specialty Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement and cash flow are very weak in TTM, with sharply deteriorated profitability (very large net loss and deeply negative margins) and negative operating/free cash flow. The main offset is an improved leverage profile (reported total debt at 0 in TTM) and a sizable equity base, but returns on equity are extremely poor due to losses.

Income Statement

Profitability has deteriorated sharply in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months): revenue is down (-3.3% growth) and both gross profit and operating profit are deeply negative, culminating in a very large net loss (net margin around -787%). While 2023 showed modest profitability, results swung materially negative in 2024 and worsened further in TTM, signaling weak earnings quality and high volatility despite prior periods of growth.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks significantly improved versus earlier years: total debt is reported at 0 in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) and was modest in 2024 (debt-to-equity ~0.18), a major step down from very high leverage in 2020–2023. Equity remains sizable (about $843M in TTM), supporting the capital base; however, returns are very poor (TTM return on equity about -91%) due to heavy losses, which is the key balance-sheet risk despite the lower reported debt load.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is weak and trending worse: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating and free cash flow are both negative (~-$35M), and free cash flow growth is sharply down. 2023 showed strong positive operating/free cash flow, but 2024 collapsed to near break-even, and TTM turned negative again—indicating inconsistent cash conversion and elevated funding/earnings risk while losses persist.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	99.13M	235.81M	124.73M	53.61M	247.00M	156.00M
Gross Profit	-16.86M	98.65M	47.99M	24.36M	319.00M	-69.00M
EBITDA	-141.81M	-30.52M	-18.99M	-31.91M	246.00M	-160.00M
Net Income	-780.16M	-556.45M	3.63M	521.25M	-17.00M	-437.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.15B	8.06B	8.43B	7.97B	12.30B	13.22B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	478.69M	331.90M	354.96M	1.93B	1.85B	2.83B
Total Debt	0.00	150.00M	3.48B	3.75B	6.45B	7.23B
Total Liabilities	1.00B	6.86B	7.00B	6.65B	11.19B	12.07B
Stockholders Equity	843.38M	856.91M	1.36B	1.25B	1.04B	1.08B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-34.95M	762.00K	200.00M	70.37M	-131.00M	-353.00M
Operating Cash Flow	-34.95M	762.00K	200.00M	70.37M	-131.00M	-175.00M
Investing Cash Flow	112.78M	-166.37M	435.00M	-41.16M	776.00M	432.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-78.88M	194.22M	-423.00M	-19.23M	-657.00M	-303.00M

Octave Specialty Group Technical Analysis

• Last Price: 5.75

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OSG, the sentiment is undefined. The current price of 5.75 is equal to the 20-day moving average (MA) of ―, equal to the 50-day MA of ―, and equal to the 200-day MA of ―, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of ― indicates undefined momentum. The RSI at ― is undefined, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of ― is undefined, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a undefined sentiment for OSG.

Octave Specialty Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%