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Onto Innovation Inc (ONTO)
NYSE:ONTO

Onto Innovation (ONTO) AI Stock Analysis

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Onto Innovation

(NYSE:ONTO)

70Outperform
Onto Innovation is positioned well financially, with strong revenue growth and a robust balance sheet. The earnings call provided a positive outlook with significant growth in key markets and improved margins. However, technical indicators suggest current bearish momentum, and the high P/E ratio raises valuation concerns. Despite these challenges, the company's overall growth trajectory and market expansion underpin a favorable outlook.
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
Onto’s 4Q24 non-GAAP earnings of $1.51 per diluted share were $0.10 above investor expectations.
Sales Growth
AI Packaging sales grew 180% year over year.
Negative Factors
NAND Market Decline
Management sees upsides in AI packaging, strong growth in GAA and DRAM, offset by a decline in NAND into 4Q24.
Supply Constraints
ONTO missed estimates due to either customer pushout or supply constraints of litho systems.

Onto Innovation (ONTO) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Onto Innovation Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionOnto Innovation Inc. engages in the design, development, manufacture, and support of process control tools that performs macro defect inspection and 2D/3D optical metrology, lithography systems, and process control analytical software worldwide. It offers process and yield management solutions, and device packaging and test facilities through standalone systems for macro-defect inspection, packaging lithography, probe card test and analysis, and transparent and opaque thin film measurements; and process control software portfolio that includes solutions for standalone tools, groups of tools, and enterprise-or factory-wide suites. The company also provides spare parts and software licensing services. Its products are used by semiconductor and advanced packaging device manufacturers; silicon wafer; light emitting diode; vertical-cavity surface-emitting laser; micro-electromechanical system; CMOS image sensor; power device; RF filter; data storage; and various industrial and scientific applications. The company was formerly known as Rudolph Technologies, Inc. Onto Innovation Inc. was founded in 1940 and is headquartered in Wilmington, Massachusetts.
How the Company Makes MoneyOnto Innovation generates revenue through the sale of its advanced process control systems and related services to semiconductor manufacturers and other high-tech industries. Key revenue streams include the sales of metrology and inspection equipment, which are essential for ensuring quality and precision in semiconductor fabrication. Additionally, Onto Innovation offers software solutions that provide data analysis and insights, enhancing the efficiency of manufacturing processes. The company also earns revenue from service contracts and support agreements, providing maintenance and upgrades for its equipment. Partnerships with leading semiconductor firms and ongoing innovation in product offerings significantly contribute to Onto Innovation's earnings.

Onto Innovation Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Onto Innovation demonstrates strong financial health with impressive revenue growth of 21%, high profitability with gross margins of 52.2%, and a solid balance sheet with no debt. The return on equity is effective at 10.5%, and cash flow generation is robust despite capital expenditure impacts. Overall, the company is well-positioned for future growth, showing minimal financial risk.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Onto Innovation's income statement reflects strong profitability with a gross profit margin of 52.2% and a net profit margin of 20.4% in the latest annual report. Revenue grew by 21% year-over-year, indicating strong demand and market position. However, the EBIT margin of 18.9% suggests room for operational efficiency improvements.
Balance Sheet
90
Very Positive
The balance sheet is robust, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.00, indicating no reliance on debt financing. The company maintains a strong equity ratio of 91.0%, reflecting financial stability and low leverage. The return on equity stands at 10.5%, showing effective use of shareholder funds.
Cash Flow
78
Positive
Cash flow analysis reveals a healthy free cash flow growth of 43.1% year-over-year. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.2 indicates solid cash generation relative to earnings. However, lower free cash flow to net income ratio of 1.1 suggests capital expenditures are impacting free cash flow.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Mar 2022Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
987.32M815.87M1.01B788.90M556.50M
Gross Profit
515.31M420.25M539.22M429.09M278.45M
EBIT
187.10M116.08M236.71M156.41M26.68M
EBITDA
187.10M183.29M301.38M222.21M94.25M
Net Income Common Stockholders
201.67M121.16M223.33M142.35M31.02M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
852.33M697.81M547.78M511.34M373.72M
Total Assets
2.12B1.91B1.79B1.65B1.47B
Total Debt
15.16M19.52M22.02M17.72M20.93M
Net Debt
-197.79M-213.99M-153.85M-151.88M-115.80M
Total Liabilities
191.21M173.18M198.44M223.76M203.43M
Stockholders Equity
1.93B1.74B1.60B1.43B1.26B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
213.77M149.40M118.30M163.24M102.16M
Operating Cash Flow
245.68M171.97M136.70M175.28M105.98M
Investing Cash Flow
-226.55M-103.39M-55.69M-141.79M-48.60M
Financing Cash Flow
-35.67M-9.47M-68.35M2.67M-53.70M

Onto Innovation Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price104.44
Price Trends
50DMA
155.15
Negative
100DMA
166.04
Negative
200DMA
184.66
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-8.75
Negative
RSI
32.94
Neutral
STOCH
17.59
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ONTO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 104.44 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 129.34, below the 50-day MA of 155.15, and below the 200-day MA of 184.66, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -8.75 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 32.94 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.59 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ONTO.

Onto Innovation Risk Analysis

Onto Innovation disclosed 38 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Onto Innovation reported the most risks in the “Tech & Innovation” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Onto Innovation Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (57)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
76
Outperform
$2.31B20.8723.12%2.63%36.10%48.15%
73
Outperform
$4.74B28.3721.90%29.83%33.42%
70
Outperform
$5.41B25.7211.01%21.01%65.27%
70
Outperform
$3.93B-6.32%-28.33%-129.75%
57
Neutral
$18.57B9.42-13.42%2.72%5.01%-23.43%
53
Neutral
$2.99B-16.69%-25.29%-449.44%
52
Neutral
$2.22B-8.18%-24.10%-189.99%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
ONTO
Onto Innovation
104.44
-85.44
-45.00%
CAMT
Camtek
50.56
-29.39
-36.76%
IPGP
IPG Photonics
52.12
-35.27
-40.36%
NVMI
Nova
162.03
-18.30
-10.15%
SLAB
Silicon Laboratories
92.08
-40.57
-30.58%
ALGM
Allegro MicroSystems
21.32
-5.33
-20.00%

Onto Innovation Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Feb 6, 2025 | % Change Since: -50.41% | Next Earnings Date: May 7, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong growth and record-breaking revenue, driven by advancements in specialty devices and advanced packaging. Despite a decline in the software and services segment and some challenges with shipment timing affecting cash flow, the overall performance was robust with significant improvements in gross margins and new product launches. The sentiment is predominantly positive due to the company's growth trajectory and market expansion.
Highlights
Record-Breaking Quarterly Revenue
Onto Innovation achieved a new quarterly revenue record of $264 million, marking a 21% increase compared to the prior year.
Growth in Specialty Device and Advanced Packaging Markets
The specialty device and advanced packaging markets grew by 30% for the calendar year, driven by strong AI packaging demand.
Improved Gross Margins
Gross margins improved every quarter in 2024, reaching nearly 55% in Q4.
Advanced Nodes Market Growth
Advanced nodes markets saw the fourth consecutive quarter of growth, with logic and memory both increasing.
Successful New Product Launches
Several new products aimed at advanced packaging, advanced nodes, and power semiconductors were launched and are in the process of being proven out at top semiconductor manufacturers.
Lowlights
Decline in Software and Services Revenue
Software and services revenue decreased by 4% compared to Q3, representing 18% of total revenue.
Timing of Shipments Affected Operating Cash Flow
Operating cash flow was $56 million, down from previous record levels in Q2 and Q3, primarily due to the timing of shipments in the quarter.
Company Guidance
During the Onto Innovation Fourth Quarter Earnings Release Conference Call, the company provided guidance for the first quarter and insights into 2025. They anticipate Q1 2025 revenue between $260 million and $274 million, with gross margins expected to be 54% to 56%. Operating expenses are projected to range from $69 million to $72 million. The company expects non-GAAP earnings per share to be between $1.40 and $1.54, with a diluted share count of approximately 49.8 million. For the full year, an effective tax rate between 14% and 16% is expected. The company highlighted strong growth in advanced nodes, particularly in DRAM and NAND, and an ongoing demand in AI packaging, with a focus on 2.5D Logic. Additionally, they foresee power market revenue exceeding 2024's record levels.

Onto Innovation Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes
Onto Innovation Announces Senior VP Resignation
Neutral
Apr 1, 2025

On April 1, 2025, Dr. Srinivas Vedula informed Onto Innovation Inc. of his resignation as Senior Vice President, Customer Success, effective April 8, 2025, to pursue other opportunities. His departure was not due to any disagreements with the company regarding its operations, policies, or practices.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.