tiprankstipranks
Trending News
More News >
ONE Gas (OGS)
NYSE:OGS

ONE Gas (OGS) AI Stock Analysis

Compare
155 Followers

Top Page

OGS

ONE Gas

(NYSE:OGS)

Select Model
Select Model
Select Model
Outperform 71 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$95.00
â–²(8.65% Upside)
Action:UpgradedDate:02/20/26
The score is driven by strong technical trend and a positive earnings-call outlook (higher 2026 guidance and reiterated long-term growth), supported by a reasonable valuation with a ~3.1% yield. The main limiter is financial performance, where recurring negative free cash flow in the last two years weakens cash-quality despite improved leverage in 2025.
Positive Factors
Regulated utility with steady customer growth
ONE Gas operates in a regulated framework with predictable rate-based returns and consistent customer additions (~23k residential customers/year). Low bill CAGR (~2%) preserves affordability, supporting durable demand, stable revenue growth and predictable cash flows over the medium term.
Material balance sheet improvement & strong credit ratings
A sharply lower debt-to-equity (~0.29 in 2025) and affirmed A-/A3 ratings enhance financial flexibility and access to capital. This stronger credit profile reduces refinancing and interest-rate risks, supporting the heavy multi-year capital program and preserving the ability to fund regulated investments and shareholder distributions.
Large, disciplined capital program driving rate base growth
Sustained high capex ($760M in 2025 and $800–$900M annual guidance) builds system integrity and expands rate base, creating durable earnings visibility through regulated returns. Major pipeline and large-load projects also diversify revenue sources, underpinning long-term EPS growth assumptions and customer service resilience.
Negative Factors
Weak free cash flow and volatile cash generation
Recent negative free cash flow despite accounting profits indicates earnings are not fully converting to cash. Persistent negative FCF increases reliance on external financing for capex and dividends, tightening liquidity cushions and raising execution and refinancing risk if adverse conditions persist.
Widening regulatory vs GAAP accounting delta
A growing delta from Texas regulatory accounting complicates earnings comparability and masks true cash timing: accruals are recovered when rolled into rates, not immediately. This increases investor complexity, could delay cash realization, and creates timing mismatches between reported earnings and cash flows.
Elevated O&M and execution/timing risk
O&M costs running above long-term targets—partly from accelerated project execution—can persistently pressure margins and cash flow. Executing projects earlier raises near-term expense and creates timing risk around benefits realization and regulatory recovery, challenging medium-term cost control.

ONE Gas (OGS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

ONE Gas Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionONE Gas, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a regulated natural gas distribution utility company in the United States. The company operates through three divisions: Oklahoma Natural Gas, Kansas Gas Service, and Texas Gas Service. It provides natural gas distribution services to 2.2 million customers in three states. It serves residential, commercial, and transportation customers. As of December 31, 2021, it operated approximately 41,600 miles of distribution mains; and 2,400 miles of transmission pipelines, as well as had 51.4 billion cubic feet of natural gas storage capacity. ONE Gas, Inc. was founded in 1906 and is headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma.
How the Company Makes MoneyONE Gas generates revenue primarily through the sale and distribution of natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers. The company's revenue model is based on the regulated utility framework, where it earns income through the delivery of natural gas and associated services, which are subject to oversight by state regulatory commissions. Key revenue streams include monthly customer charges, usage-based fees, and additional services such as new service installations. Furthermore, OGS benefits from significant partnerships with producers and suppliers of natural gas, as well as strategic collaborations for infrastructure projects. Factors contributing to its earnings include overall demand for natural gas, regulatory decisions affecting pricing, and investments in technology to improve operational efficiency and customer service.

ONE Gas Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 18, 2026
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong operational resilience (notably during Winter Storm Fern), solid full-year and quarterly financial performance with double-digit improvements in adjusted and GAAP metrics, clear growth projects and continued customer additions, and affirmed credit ratings. The company also introduced non-GAAP adjustments to reflect regulatory accounting impacts from Texas House Bill 4384, which increased the persistent delta between regulatory and GAAP results and introduces some complexity and timing differences for cash recoveries. O&M was slightly above guidance due to earlier execution of projects, and some legislative/regulatory changes (Kansas GSRS) remain uncertain. Overall, positive operational and financial momentum outweighs the manageable accounting and timing challenges described.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Full-Year Financial Performance
2025 GAAP net income of $264 million ($4.37 per diluted share) versus $223 million ($3.91) in 2024, an increase of ~18% in net income and ~11.8% in EPS. 2025 adjusted net income was $271 million ($4.48) versus $225 million ($3.94) in 2024, up ~20.4% in adjusted net income and ~13.7% in adjusted EPS.
Solid Fourth Quarter Results
Q4 adjusted net income of $90 million ($1.48 per diluted share) compared with $78 million ($1.35) in Q4 2024 — a ~15.4% increase in adjusted net income and ~9.6% increase in adjusted EPS year-over-year.
Raised and Met Guidance; Consistent Execution
Raised midpoint of EPS guidance to $4.37 in August and finished the year in line with that midpoint — marking the 12th consecutive year of meeting or surpassing the midpoint of initial EPS guidance.
Forward Guidance and Long-Term Growth Outlook
2026 adjusted net income guidance of $306M–$314M and adjusted EPS guidance of $4.83–$4.95. Long-term adjusted net income growth projected at 7%–9% and adjusted EPS growth of 5%–7%, implying a 2030 adjusted EPS midpoint of roughly $6.
Operational Resilience During Winter Storm Fern
Delivered over 3 billion cubic feet of gas on the peak storm day with no supply disruptions. Available winter peak capacity increased ~25% after Austin system reinforcement; storage capacity increased to over 60 Bcf and, across the service territory, over 80% of gas needed during the storm was shielded from temporary price increases.
Significant Capital Investment and Growth Projects
Completed $760 million of capital expenditures in 2025 (including $170 million for customer growth). Announced a ~$120 million pipeline to deliver over 100 billion cubic feet annually to Western Farmers Electric Cooperative and broke ground on a project to serve an advanced manufacturing plant (on track for Q3 service).
Customer Growth and Affordability
Added about 23,000 new residential customers annually. Kept cumulative residential bill CAGR below inflation at just under 2%, supporting affordability while growing the system.
Operational Efficiency and Safety Improvements
Completed 1.3 million line locates, performing ~40% in-house. Excavation damages per 1,000 locates decreased by over 14% YoY despite an 8% increase in ticket volumes, reflecting improved execution and reduced long-term costs.
Stronger Financing and Credit Profile
S&P affirmed A- with stable outlook and Moody's affirmed A3 with stable outlook. 2025 cash flow metrics were several hundred basis points above downgrade thresholds; interest expense in the quarter was $2.9 million lower YoY (excluding KGSS1), helped by Federal Reserve cuts.
Regulatory Wins in Texas
Received final Texas rate case order approving a $14.4 million revenue increase, a 9.8% return on equity and a 59.9% equity ratio, and consolidation of three Texas jurisdictions into a single statewide division — expected to simplify filings (one GRIP filing for Texas Gas Service).
Negative Updates
Increased O&M Expense
Full-year O&M expense rose approximately 5% versus 2024, slightly above the company's long-term 4% CAGR guidance. Management attributes part of the increase to executing some projects earlier than planned.
Widening Delta Between Regulatory and GAAP Accounting
Expansion of Texas Rule 8.209 treatment under House Bill 4384 widened the difference between regulatory books and GAAP. The delta was nearly $7 million (~$0.11 per share) in 2025 and is expected to be roughly $12 million (~$0.18 per share, ~4% of projected consolidated EPS) in 2026, prompting adoption of non-GAAP adjusted reporting which may add complexity for investors.
Timing of Cash Recovery for Accruals
The accrual/deferral under Texas rules is not an immediate cash benefit — cash recovery occurs when amounts are rolled into rates (e.g., GRIP filings). This means some regulatory earnings-related adjustments are not instantly accretive to cash flow.
Kansas Legislative Uncertainty
Proposed Kansas legislation to expand GSRS eligibility and increase the cap (from $0.80 to $1.35 monthly) is in early stages (cleared the House) and still must pass the Senate. Outcome timing and scope remain uncertain.
Temporary Elevated Expenses Due to Accelerated Project Execution
Executing certain projects ahead of schedule produced short-term elevated O&M and execution costs, increasing 2025 expense levels above the plan even as management views the approach as efficiency-focused overall.
Company Guidance
ONE Gas said it will provide 2026 guidance on its new adjusted basis, expecting adjusted net income of $306 million to $314 million and adjusted EPS of $4.83 to $4.95 (using adjusted 2025 actuals of $271 million and $4.48 per share; GAAP 2025 net income was $264 million or $4.37), and reiterated long‑term adjusted net income growth of 7%–9% and adjusted EPS growth of 5%–7% (implying a 2030 adjusted EPS midpoint of roughly $6); the company noted the expanding Texas accounting delta (≈$2M/ $0.03 in 2024, ≈$7M/ $0.11 in 2025, and an anticipated ≈$12M/ $0.18—or ~4% of consolidated EPS—in 2026) and said it will report adjusted figures going forward, while also citing 2025 capex of $760 million (including $170 million for growth and a ~$120 million pipeline), full‑year O&M up ~5% (versus a 4% CAGR target and a long‑term 3%–4% O&M CAGR outlook), roughly 23,000 new residential customers per year, cumulative residential bill CAGR just under 2%, storage >60 Bcf (up ~20%), peak delivery >3 Bcf on the winter storm peak day, S&P A‑/Moody’s A3 ratings affirmed, and an assumption of no further Fed rate cuts in 2026.

ONE Gas Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Profitability is steady for a regulated utility and the 2025 balance sheet improved materially (much lower debt-to-equity), but cash flow quality is a clear weakness with negative free cash flow in 2024–2025 and volatile operating cash flow.
Income Statement
74
Positive
Revenue has been uneven (down in 2023–2024, then up in 2025), but profitability has remained steady with net margin consistently around ~9%–13%. 2025 shows a meaningful step-up in gross margin (to ~59%) and solid operating profitability, supporting a constructive earnings profile for a regulated utility. The main weakness is the choppy top-line trajectory and some margin variability year-to-year, which limits the quality of growth.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Leverage improved materially in 2025, with debt-to-equity falling to ~0.29 versus ~1.1–1.8 in prior years, which strengthens financial flexibility. Equity has also grown over time and returns on equity have been stable in the mid-to-high single digits (~7%–9%), consistent with a regulated model. The key risk is that leverage was elevated for several years before the sharp 2025 improvement, and total assets continue to grow—so maintaining this healthier capital structure will matter.
Cash Flow
46
Neutral
Cash generation is volatile. Operating cash flow recovered to positive levels after a large 2021 outflow and remains positive in 2024–2025, but free cash flow is negative in 2024–2025 after being strongly positive in 2022–2023, implying heavier investment and/or working-capital drag. Free cash flow relative to net income is negative in the last two years, indicating that accounting earnings are not currently translating into excess cash.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue2.43B2.08B2.37B2.58B1.81B
Gross Profit1.43B775.11M729.08M646.65M583.91M
EBITDA781.52M703.17M666.90M574.25M514.28M
Net Income264.22M222.85M231.23M221.74M206.43M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets9.33B8.43B7.77B7.78B8.40B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments33.73M57.99M18.84M9.68M8.85M
Total Debt3.39B3.33B3.05B3.26B4.18B
Total Liabilities5.89B5.32B5.01B5.19B6.05B
Stockholders Equity3.44B3.10B2.77B2.58B2.35B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-128.39M-334.75M272.90M961.36M-2.03B
Operating Cash Flow578.83M368.41M939.53M1.57B-1.54B
Investing Cash Flow-715.32M-707.50M-669.64M-614.11M-501.08M
Financing Cash Flow91.68M378.23M-248.63M-947.46M2.04B

ONE Gas Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price87.44
Price Trends
50DMA
79.70
Positive
100DMA
79.82
Positive
200DMA
76.39
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
2.08
Negative
RSI
72.21
Negative
STOCH
83.53
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OGS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 87.44 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 83.44, above the 50-day MA of 79.70, and above the 200-day MA of 76.39, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 72.21 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.53 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for OGS.

ONE Gas Risk Analysis

ONE Gas disclosed 15 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. ONE Gas reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

ONE Gas Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
71
Outperform
$5.48B20.038.51%3.45%15.06%12.27%
70
Outperform
$6.37B13.745.42%3.07%-23.15%157.45%
66
Neutral
$5.47B16.7813.66%4.01%13.94%13.93%
66
Neutral
$17.65B18.105.60%3.62%6.62%11.55%
65
Neutral
$2.20B21.117.20%4.18%11.27%20.04%
65
Neutral
$8.03B13.8012.52%3.92%1.10%140.04%
64
Neutral
$5.41B19.898.46%3.82%-4.50%2.49%
* Utilities Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
OGS
ONE Gas
87.44
14.80
20.38%
SR
Spire
91.61
17.87
24.23%
NJR
New Jersey Resources
54.24
7.76
16.71%
NWN
Northwest Gas
53.04
13.95
35.67%
SWX
Southwest Gas
88.17
15.46
21.27%
UGI
UGI
37.41
4.67
14.27%

ONE Gas Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
ONE Gas Posts Strong Q4 Results, Raises 2026 Outlook
Positive
Feb 18, 2026

On February 18, 2026, ONE Gas reported fourth-quarter 2025 net income of $86.3 million, or $1.42 per diluted share, up from $77.0 million a year earlier, with adjusted EPS rising to $1.48. Full-year 2025 net income increased to $264.2 million, or $4.37 per share, while adjusted EPS reached $4.48, driven largely by $116 million from new rates and customer growth, partly offset by higher depreciation, employee costs and taxes.

The company settled forward equity contracts in December 2025 for $205 million in net proceeds, held capital spending roughly flat at $759.5 million, and won approval in Texas for a $14.4 million revenue increase and divisional consolidation effective January 27, 2026. ONE Gas raised its first-quarter 2026 dividend to $0.68 per share and issued 2026 guidance calling for adjusted net income of $306 million to $314 million, underpinned by about $800 million of planned capital investments focused on system integrity and customer expansion.

The most recent analyst rating on (OGS) stock is a Hold with a $73.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ONE Gas stock, see the OGS Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
ONE Gas Announces Leadership Transition to Support Growth
Positive
Feb 18, 2026

On February 18, 2026, ONE Gas announced that senior vice president and chief operating officer Curtis L. Dinan will be promoted to president and chief operating officer effective March 1, 2026. Current president and chief executive officer Robert S. McAnnally will continue as chief executive officer, concentrating on long-term strategy, value creation and stakeholder engagement.

In his expanded role, Dinan will oversee the day-to-day operations of ONE Gas’ natural gas distribution business divisions while continuing to report to McAnnally. The company said the leadership progression is designed to support scaled operations and long-term growth amid rising demand and confirmed that the change does not alter its strategy, regulatory commitments or financial outlook.

The most recent analyst rating on (OGS) stock is a Hold with a $73.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ONE Gas stock, see the OGS Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
ONE Gas Sets 2025 Results Release, 2026 Earnings Calendar
Neutral
Jan 22, 2026

On January 22, 2026, ONE Gas announced it will release its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial results after the market closes on February 18, 2026, followed by a conference call and live webcast with executive management on February 19, 2026, which will also be available for replay on the company’s website and by phone for a limited time. The company also outlined its 2026 investor communications calendar, scheduling first-, second- and third-quarter 2026 earnings releases for May 4, August 4 and November 2, respectively, with corresponding conference calls and webcasts the following days at consistent times, signaling a predictable and structured approach to ongoing engagement with analysts, investors and other stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (OGS) stock is a Hold with a $73.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ONE Gas stock, see the OGS Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyDividends
ONE Gas Announces Modest Dividend Increase and Outlook
Positive
Jan 20, 2026

On January 20, 2026, ONE Gas’ board of directors increased the company’s first-quarter 2026 dividend by one cent to 68 cents per share, equivalent to an annualized dividend of $2.72 per share, payable on March 6, 2026 to shareholders of record as of February 20, 2026. The company also signaled a modest but steady capital return profile by stating it expects average annual dividend growth of 1% to 2% through 2030, reinforcing its income-focused value proposition for investors in a regulated utility business.

The most recent analyst rating on (OGS) stock is a Hold with a $83.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ONE Gas stock, see the OGS Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
ONE Gas Executes Forward Equity Agreements to Raise Capital
Positive
Dec 29, 2025

ONE Gas, Inc., a U.S. regulated natural gas utility, has entered into a series of forward sale agreements to issue a total of 2,633,700 shares of common stock by December 29, 2025. Under these agreements with Bank of America, N.A. and JPMorgan Chase Bank, National Association, the company expects to issue 223,000 and 180,000 shares pursuant to two amended 2023 contracts with Bank of America and 2,230,700 shares under a May 8, 2025 contract with JPMorgan, resulting in aggregate expected net proceeds of approximately $205 million that will bolster its capital resources and financial flexibility.

The most recent analyst rating on (OGS) stock is a Hold with a $85.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ONE Gas stock, see the OGS Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
ONE Gas expands commercial paper program to boost liquidity
Positive
Dec 19, 2025

On December 17, 2025, ONE Gas increased the size of its unsecured commercial paper program, raising the maximum aggregate principal amount of notes outstanding at any time from $1.35 billion to $1.50 billion, while leaving all other terms and conditions of the program unchanged. The move expands the company’s short-term financing capacity, potentially enhancing its liquidity and financial flexibility, although the commercial paper notes will continue to be offered only in transactions exempt from registration under U.S. securities laws and do not constitute a public offering.

The most recent analyst rating on (OGS) stock is a Buy with a $87.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ONE Gas stock, see the OGS Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
ONE Gas launches major Oklahoma natural gas pipeline project
Positive
Dec 18, 2025

On December 18, 2025, ONE Gas, Inc. announced a joint infrastructure initiative to build a 43-mile, large-diameter natural gas pipeline in southeast Oklahoma to support economic growth and enhance energy reliability in the region. The $150–$160 million project, of which ONE Gas will invest about $120 million, will connect the Bennington Natural Gas Hub to Western Farmers Electric Cooperative’s Hugo Plant near Fort Towson, enabling delivery of more than 100 billion cubic feet of natural gas annually to fuel 400 megawatts of natural gas-fired generation by 2029 as the first phase of WFEC’s long-term resource plan; the pipeline, to be installed and operated by Oklahoma Natural Gas, is expected to be completed by the third quarter of 2028, positioning ONE Gas as a key energy infrastructure provider for the plant and surrounding communities.

The most recent analyst rating on (OGS) stock is a Hold with a $83.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ONE Gas stock, see the OGS Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
ONE Gas to Attend Investor Conferences in December
Neutral
Dec 2, 2025

On December 2, 2025, ONE Gas announced its participation in several investor conferences in New York City, scheduled for December 8-10, 2025. Key executives, including the CEO, CFO, and COO, will engage with the investment community, with conference materials available on the company’s website.

The most recent analyst rating on (OGS) stock is a Hold with a $75.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ONE Gas stock, see the OGS Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
ONE Gas Raises 2026 Financial Guidance and EPS Growth
Positive
Dec 1, 2025

On December 1, 2025, ONE Gas announced its 2026 financial guidance, raising its long-term diluted earnings per share growth rate to 5% to 7%. The company expects 2026 net income between $294 million and $302 million, with capital investments primarily focused on system integrity and replacement projects. Over the next five years, capital investments are projected to be $800 million to $900 million annually, supporting a 7% to 9% average rate base growth per year through 2030. The announcement reflects ONE Gas’s strategy to leverage customer growth opportunities while maintaining commitments to safety and affordability, positioning the company for sustainable growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (OGS) stock is a Hold with a $75.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ONE Gas stock, see the OGS Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 20, 2026