Norfolk Southern (NSC) Risk Analysis

Severe weather conditions and other natural phenomena resulting from changing weather patterns and rising sea levels or other causes, including hurricanes, floods, fires, landslides, extreme temperatures, significant precipitation, and earthquakes, have caused, and may again cause damage to our network, our workforce to be unavailable, and us to be unable to use our equipment, or otherwise cause significant interruptions to our operations. Additionally, shifts in weather patterns caused by climate change are expected to increase the frequency, severity, or duration of certain adverse weather conditions, which could cause more significant business interruptions that result in increased costs, increased liabilities, and decreased revenues. Our inability to quickly and effectively restore operations following adverse weather and disasters could materially impact our business and results of operations. To the extent such weather events or natural disasters become more frequent or severe, disruptions to our business and those of our customers and costs to repair damaged property and equipment or maintain or resume operations could increase. Furthermore, climate change may contribute to an increase in the incidence and severity of natural disasters and adverse weather conditions and reduce the availability or increase the cost of insurance for such events.

We rely on the capital markets to provide some of our capital requirements, including the issuance of debt instruments and the sale of certain receivables. Significant instability or disruptions of the capital markets, including the credit markets, or deterioration of our financial position due to internal or external factors could restrict or eliminate our access to, and/or significantly increase the cost of, various financing sources, including bank credit facilities and issuance of corporate bonds. Instability or disruptions of the capital markets and deterioration of our financial position, alone or in combination, could also result in a reduction of our credit rating to below investment grade, which could prohibit or restrict us from accessing external sources of short- and long-term debt financing and/or significantly increase the associated costs.

Before the Mergers may be completed, the requisite regulatory approvals must have been obtained, including STB approval. While the initial Merger application with the STB was determined to be incomplete, the Company and Union Pacific are in process of preparing a revised application that incorporates the additional items identified by the STB. The terms and conditions of the approvals that are granted may impose requirements, concessions, limitations, or costs or place restrictions on the conduct of the combined company's business. Subject to the terms and conditions of the Merger Agreement, Union Pacific and the Company have each agreed to use their reasonable best efforts to take, or cause to be taken, all actions, and to do, or cause to be done, and to assist and cooperate with each other in doing, all things necessary, proper, or advisable to cause the conditions to closing set forth in the Merger Agreement to be satisfied and to consummate and make effective the Mergers and the other transactions contemplated by the Merger Agreement prior to the end date, except that Union Pacific and its subsidiaries are not required to take, or commit to take, or agree to or accept any "materially burdensome regulatory condition." For purposes of the foregoing, "reasonable best efforts" includes, among others, (i) proposing, negotiating, committing to, and effecting, by consent decree, hold separate order, or otherwise, the sale, divestiture, license, hold separate, or disposition of any and all of the share capital or other equity interest, assets, products, or businesses of Union Pacific and its subsidiaries or of the Company and its subsidiaries and (ii) otherwise taking or committing to take any actions that after the first effective time would limit Union Pacific's or its subsidiaries' freedom of action with respect to, or their ability to retain, or otherwise agreeing to any restriction, requirement, or limitation with respect to their or one or more of their subsidiaries' assets, products, or businesses, in each case as may be required in order to avoid the entry of, or to effect the dissolution of, any injunction, temporary restraining order, or other order that would otherwise have the effect of preventing or delaying the closing. The STB and other regulatory and governmental authorities may impose requirements, concessions, and other conditions on the granting of such approvals. If such regulatory and governmental authorities seek to impose such requirements, concessions, or conditions, lengthy negotiations may ensue among such authorities, Union Pacific and the Company. Such requirements, concessions, and conditions and the process of obtaining regulatory approvals could have the effect of delaying completion of the Mergers and such requirements, concessions, and conditions may not be identified or satisfied for an extended period of time following the Union Pacific special meeting and the Company's special meeting. Such requirements, concessions and conditions may also impose additional costs or limitations on the combined company following the completion of the Mergers and the parties have agreed to accept such requirements, concessions, and conditions, even if significant, subject to the agreed-upon materially burdensome regulatory condition limitation in favor of Union Pacific. These requirements, concessions, and conditions may therefore reduce the anticipated benefits of the Mergers, including synergies, which could also have a significant adverse effect on the combined company's business and cash flows and results of operations, and neither Union Pacific nor the Company can predict what, if any, requirements, concessions, and conditions may be required by regulatory or governmental authorities whose approvals are required. The requisite regulatory approvals may not be obtained at all, may not be obtained in a timely fashion, and may contain conditions on the completion of the Mergers. In addition, under existing law, railroad competitors and customers of Union Pacific and the Company and other interested parties may intervene to oppose the STB application or seek protective conditions in the event approval by the STB is granted, which might affect the decision of the STB, delay the approval process, or reduce the anticipated benefits of the Mergers. Furthermore, if the STB does not provide final approval or imposes conditions on its approval in a final order, and Union Pacific and the Company decide to appeal such final order from the STB, any such appeal might not be resolved for a substantial period of time after the entry of such order by the STB.

Our growth strategy includes increasing the volume of shipments moving through our railway networks. We are reliant on the success of our strategic plans and initiatives to execute on this growth strategy, as well as to help offset increasing costs. These strategic plans include marketing, service, growth, and productivity initiatives. The timely and effective execution of our strategies are dependent upon, among other factors, (i) our ability to maintain satisfactory relations with our customers, employees, and other key stakeholders, (ii) our ability to effectively control costs, (iii) the progress and success of our safety programs and inspection technologies, and (iv) our ability to timely and effectively maintain and upgrade technology systems and other infrastructure for our railway networks. Our failure to successfully execute on our strategic initiatives may expose us to a number of risks, including, that our projected volume growth may differ from actual results, and prior capital investments based on our projections may contribute to excess capacity that could negatively impact our profitability.

If we fail to develop, acquire or implement new technology, or otherwise fail to maintain, protect or integrate our information or operational technology systems, we may suffer a competitive disadvantage within the rail industry and with companies providing alternative modes of transportation service. The techniques used by cybersecurity threat actors to obtain unauthorized access, disable or degrade service or sabotage systems change frequently, as data breaches and other cybersecurity events have become increasingly commonplace. Consequently, these techniques may be difficult to detect and cybersecurity events are therefore increasingly difficult to prevent. The rapid evolution and increased adoption of emerging technologies, such as artificial intelligence and machine learning (both of which we use), may make it more difficult to anticipate cybersecurity threats and implement adequate protective countermeasures. If we fail to adequately develop or maintain our information or operational technology systems or cybersecurity infrastructure, we may become increasingly vulnerable to cybersecurity events, or other breaches or disruptions to our information or operational technology systems.

We have experienced and may again experience capacity constraints on our rail network related to employee or equipment shortages, increased demand for rail services, severe weather, congestion on other railroads, including passenger activities, or impacts from changes to our network structure or composition. Such constraints could result in operational inefficiencies or adversely affect our operations. Significant increases in demand for rail services could result in the unavailability of qualified personnel and resources like locomotives. Changes in workforce demographics, training requirements, and availability of qualified personnel, particularly for engineers and conductors, have negatively impacted and may again negatively impact our ability to meet short-term demand for rail service. Unpredicted increases in demand for rail services may exacerbate such risks and could negatively impact our operational efficiency.