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Energy Vault Holdings, Inc. (NRGV)
NYSE:NRGV

Energy Vault Holdings (NRGV) AI Stock Analysis

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NRGV

Energy Vault Holdings

(NYSE:NRGV)

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Neutral 53 (OpenAI - 5.2)
,
Neutral 53 (OpenAI - 5.2)
,
Neutral 53 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:53Neutral
Price Target:
$3.50
â–¼(-13.79% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/18/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (ongoing losses, negative free cash flow, and rising leverage). Offsetting this, the latest earnings-call signals improving execution and visibility (revenue growth, better margins, narrowing EBITDA losses, and expanding backlog), while technicals are mixed and valuation remains constrained by lack of profitability and no dividend.
Positive Factors
Large backlog and development pipeline
A ~$920M backlog and a ~ $2.1B pipeline provide multi-quarter revenue visibility and optionality. Converting backlog into realized projects supports sustained top-line growth over 2–6 months, underpins investment in operations, and reduces near-term execution uncertainty tied to new wins alone.
Asset Vault platform launched; recurring EBITDA target
Asset Vault shifts the company toward owning and operating storage assets, creating recurring cashflow streams. A targeted $40M annual EBITDA by 2027 indicates structural margin tailwinds from vertical integration and long-term contracts, improving predictability versus pure project sales.
Strategic partnerships and supply/offtake deals
Partnerships (Crusoe modular AI deployments and Peak sodium‑ion offtake plus APAC channel rights) diversify end markets and secure supply. These structural alliances lower project execution risk, open higher-EBITDA AI infra demand, and strengthen competitive positioning across regions.
Negative Factors
Rising leverage and tighter equity base
Material increase in leverage tightens financial flexibility and raises refinancing risk if operating results falter. Compressed equity limits cushion for project cost overruns and makes future capital raises more dilutive or costly, creating a structural funding vulnerability over the medium term.
Persistent negative free cash flow
Continued negative free cash flow signals the business is not yet self‑funding. Even with improvement, ongoing cash burn requires external financing for growth and Asset Vault investments, sustaining structural dilution and interest/repayment obligations until positive FCF is durable.
Volatile revenue and unproven sustained profitability
Historic revenue volatility reflects project timing and execution dependency, making future cash flow lumpy. Despite margin improvements, consistent bottom‑line profitability is unproven; until recurring Asset Vault cash flows dominate, earnings remain sensitive to project cadence and macro deal structures.

Energy Vault Holdings (NRGV) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Energy Vault Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionEnergy Vault Holdings, Inc. develops and sells energy storage solutions. The company offers gravity-based storage systems, including EVx Platform, a scalable, modular product line starting from 40-megawatt hour to multi-gigawatt hours to address grid resiliency needs in shorter durations; Energy Vault Resiliency Center, a scalable, gigawatt hour scale product line designed to address grid resiliency needs to manage energy disruptive climate events; and Energy Vault solutions. Its solutions allow utilities, independent power producers, and large energy users to manage their power portfolios and efficiently dispatch power. Energy Vault Holdings, Inc. is based in Westlake Village, California.
How the Company Makes MoneyEnergy Vault primarily makes money by delivering energy storage projects and related services to customers such as utilities, independent power producers, and grid/renewable developers. Key revenue streams include: (1) project/system sales and turnkey delivery—revenue from engineering, procurement, and construction-style delivery of storage facilities (including equipment supply, integration, and commissioning) under customer contracts; (2) services revenue—fees for development services, project management, engineering, and other professional services tied to storage deployments; (3) software and controls—revenue associated with the company’s technology used to monitor, manage, and optimize storage operations (e.g., energy management/dispatch controls), when contracted as part of a project or as ongoing support; and (4) long-term agreements—where applicable, recurring revenue from operations and maintenance and other post-commissioning support tied to deployed assets. The company’s earnings are influenced by its ability to secure and execute contracted project backlogs, the timing of project milestones (which can affect revenue recognition), and partnerships with technology and supply-chain providers used in delivering storage projects. null

Energy Vault Holdings Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 10, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 18, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Energy Vault's earnings call reflected significant growth and strategic advancements, including a substantial increase in revenue and the successful launch of the Asset Vault platform. Despite challenges in the macro environment, the company maintained strong financial results and sustainability leadership.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Revenue Growth
Energy Vault delivered Q3 revenue of $33.3 million compared to $1.2 million a year ago, representing a 27x increase year-over-year, driven by strong execution on Australia projects and the initial contribution from the Asset Vault assets.
Successful Launch of Asset Vault Platform
The quarter marked the formal launch of the Asset Vault platform, enabling Energy Vault to vertically integrate and originate, design, build, own, and operate energy storage assets.
Strong Gross Margins
Energy Vault delivered strong unit economics with gross margins of 27% in the quarter, bringing year-to-date gross margins to almost 33%.
Significant Project Financing and Cash Flow
Closed a $300 million preferred equity investment from Orion Infrastructure, with expectations to return $30 million to $40 million in investment tax credits, growing cash balances for three consecutive quarters.
Sustainability Leadership
Energy Vault continues to advance its leadership in sustainability, placing in the top 98th percentile of all companies reviewed by S&P Global, maintaining its leadership as the #1 company in the energy storage segment.
Negative Updates
Ongoing Challenges in Macro Environment
The company faced macro uncertainty, including tariff volatility and market shutdowns, causing some delays and requiring more complex deal structures.
R&D Expense Reduction
There was a sequential decline in R&D expenses, reflecting a shift from investment in R&D to focusing on harvesting benefits from earlier investments.
Company Guidance
During Energy Vault's third quarter 2025 earnings call, the company provided several key metrics indicating strong performance and strategic advancements. The company reported a Q3 revenue of $33.3 million, a significant increase from $1.2 million a year ago, primarily driven by their projects in Australia and contributions from their Asset Vault platform. Gross margins for the quarter stood at 27%, contributing to a year-to-date gross margin of nearly 33%. Energy Vault also narrowed its EBITDA loss to $6 million for the quarter, showcasing improved financial management. Furthermore, the company's backlog reached $920 million, more than doubling year-to-date, with a total development pipeline valued at approximately $2.1 billion or 8.7 gigawatt-hours. Energy Vault maintained its guidance for full-year 2025 revenue between $200 million and $250 million and projected end-of-year cash reserves between $75 million and $100 million. The launch of the Asset Vault platform is expected to deliver $40 million in recurring annual EBITDA by year-end 2027, expanding further by 2029. Additionally, Energy Vault's sustainability leadership was highlighted, as it continues to rank in the top 98th percentile globally in S&P ESG scores.

Energy Vault Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Financials show improving scale and gross margin in TTM 2025 versus 2024, but the business remains unprofitable with persistent net losses. Balance-sheet risk has increased as debt rose sharply and equity compressed, and cash flow remains negative with ongoing free-cash-flow burn despite some operating cash flow improvement.
Income Statement
24
Negative
Revenue is highly volatile: after a very large 2023 base ($342M), revenue fell sharply in 2024 ($46M) and then rebounded in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) 2025 to ~$204M. Profitability remains weak across the period, with consistently negative operating profit and net income; while gross margin improved to ~22.7% in TTM from ~13.4% in 2024, the company is still losing money at the bottom line (net margin deeply negative). Overall, the income statement shows improving scale vs. 2024 but an unproven path to sustainable profitability.
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
The balance sheet shows a meaningful increase in leverage in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) 2025, with debt rising to ~$94.6M and debt-to-equity moving up to ~0.78 versus very low leverage in 2022–2024. Equity is still positive (~$67.5M in TTM), but it has compressed significantly from prior years, and returns on equity remain strongly negative due to ongoing losses. Net: adequate capitalization today, but rising debt and shrinking equity increase financial risk if losses persist.
Cash Flow
22
Negative
Cash generation remains the key weakness: operating cash flow is negative in every period provided, though it improved materially in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) 2025 (about -$5.6M) versus 2024 (about -$55.9M). Free cash flow is also consistently negative and still sizable in TTM (about -$46.7M), indicating continued cash burn and funding needs. While free cash flow was less negative than in 2024, the overall cash-flow profile remains pressured and not yet self-funding.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue203.67M46.20M341.54M145.88M0.00
Gross Profit47.99M6.19M17.53M59.30M-2.44M
EBITDA-67.48M-134.56M-97.86M-69.38M-28.89M
Net Income-103.61M-135.75M-98.44M-78.30M-31.34M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets312.88M183.89M340.75M416.71M125.29M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments58.26M30.02M109.92M203.04M105.13M
Total Debt94.60M1.36M1.86M1.55M1.36M
Total Liabilities224.26M57.63M116.96M129.00M193.96M
Stockholders Equity67.46M126.32M223.79M287.71M-68.67M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-46.74M-114.71M-123.09M-25.66M-22.24M
Operating Cash Flow-5.65M-55.86M-92.66M-23.35M-22.07M
Investing Cash Flow-44.61M-58.74M-42.54M-13.32M-1.17M
Financing Cash Flow123.05M-252.00K-5.48M217.77M116.38M

Energy Vault Holdings Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price4.06
Price Trends
50DMA
4.13
Negative
100DMA
4.08
Negative
200DMA
2.96
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.11
Negative
RSI
45.62
Neutral
STOCH
53.14
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NRGV, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.06 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.28, below the 50-day MA of 4.13, and above the 200-day MA of 2.96, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.11 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 45.62 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 53.14 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NRGV.

Energy Vault Holdings Risk Analysis

Energy Vault Holdings disclosed 74 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Energy Vault Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Energy Vault Holdings Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
66
Neutral
$17.65B18.105.60%3.62%6.62%11.55%
55
Neutral
$1.85B-231.4910.05%―42.09%219.69%
53
Neutral
$577.74M-7.14-117.28%―-35.99%-46.51%
50
Neutral
$2.78B-14.43-12.87%―-16.15%-324.40%
48
Neutral
$36.85M-10.17-54.97%―-40.99%-46.52%
47
Neutral
$60.15M-4.03-602.83%―146.01%63.18%
43
Neutral
$80.19M-12.44-16.59%――23.66%
* Utilities Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
NRGV
Energy Vault Holdings
3.34
2.39
253.07%
RNW
ReNew Energy Global
5.07
-1.12
-18.09%
WAVE
Eco Wave Power Global
6.31
-0.76
-10.75%
NXXT
NextNRG
0.45
-2.39
-84.26%
VGAS
Verde Clean Fuels
1.80
-1.71
-48.72%
FLNC
Fluence Energy
15.13
9.83
185.47%

Energy Vault Holdings Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Energy Vault Expands Convertible Notes Offering and Capped Calls
Positive
Feb 27, 2026

Energy Vault Holdings, Inc. expanded a previously announced private offering of 5.250% Convertible Senior Notes due 2031, after initial purchasers on February 25, 2026 exercised an option to buy an additional $10 million of notes, bringing the total issuance to $150 million. On February 27, 2026, the company issued these option notes on the same terms as the initial $140 million tranche completed on February 17, 2026, while keeping the securities unregistered and restricted to qualified or exempt transactions under U.S. securities law.

In conjunction with the option notes, Energy Vault on February 27, 2026 entered into additional privately negotiated capped call transactions with financial institutions, designed to reduce potential dilution from conversion of the new notes and to offset cash payments above principal, with a cap initially set at $8.12 per share, double the February 11, 2026 NYSE closing price. Earlier, on February 19, 2026, the company used part of the initial notes’ proceeds to redeem $45 million of outstanding senior unsecured convertible debentures held by YA II PN, Ltd., signaling a move to refinance existing debt on potentially more favorable and less dilutive terms for shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (NRGV) stock is a Buy with a $5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Energy Vault Holdings stock, see the NRGV Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and Financing
Energy Vault completes $140M convertible notes private offering
Neutral
Feb 18, 2026

On February 17, 2026, Energy Vault Holdings, Inc. completed a $140 million private offering of 5.250% Convertible Senior Notes due 2031, issuing unsecured debt that pays semiannual interest and can be converted into common stock under specified stock price and trading conditions. The notes, which feature an initial conversion price at a 27.5% premium to the February 11, 2026 share price, include standard redemption, default and “fundamental change” protections that shape potential dilution and capital structure outcomes for creditors and shareholders.

In connection with the February 11, 2026 pricing of the notes, the company entered into capped call transactions with financial institutions designed to reduce potential dilution from note conversions and to offset cash payments above principal, with a $8.12 per share cap set at a 100% premium to the then-market price. The common shares underlying the notes were not registered under the Securities Act, signaling that any conversions or related issuances will rely on exemptions and could alter ownership dynamics over time without an immediate public resale registration pathway.

The most recent analyst rating on (NRGV) stock is a Buy with a $5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Energy Vault Holdings stock, see the NRGV Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Energy Vault Prices Upsized Convertible Notes Private Placement
Positive
Feb 12, 2026

On February 11, 2026, Energy Vault priced an upsized private placement of $140 million in 5.25% convertible senior notes due 2031, marketed to qualified institutional buyers, with an additional $20 million purchase option for initial purchasers and expected settlement on February 17, 2026. The notes carry an initial conversion price of about $5.18 per share, a 27.5% premium to the firm’s last closing price, and are structured to be redeemable for cash, stock or a mix, giving the company flexibility in managing future equity dilution and capital structure.

Energy Vault expects net proceeds of roughly $135.5 million, or up to $154.8 million if the option is fully exercised, earmarking funds for capped call transactions, partial redemption of existing convertible debentures and general corporate purposes including debt repayment and growth initiatives. In tandem, the company entered capped call transactions with financial institutions, designed to limit potential dilution from note conversions and partially offset cash outlays above principal, although associated hedging activity by counterparties could influence trading dynamics in Energy Vault’s shares and notes over time.

The most recent analyst rating on (NRGV) stock is a Buy with a $5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Energy Vault Holdings stock, see the NRGV Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Energy Vault Enters AI Infrastructure With Crusoe Partnership
Positive
Feb 11, 2026

On February 11, 2026, Energy Vault announced a multi-year strategic framework agreement with Denver-based Crusoe for phased deployment of Crusoe’s Spark modular AI factory data center units at Energy Vault’s Snyder, Texas technology center, scalable up to 25 MW starting in 2026. Under the deal, Energy Vault will supply modular “powered shell” energy infrastructure to support Crusoe Cloud’s high-density compute and managed inference capacity, aiming to cut time-to-capacity for AI customers while leveraging its digital operating platform.

The partnership marks Energy Vault’s formal entry into the AI infrastructure market, extending its Asset Vault and own-and-operate strategy into a high-growth segment with materially higher expected EBITDA per megawatt than traditional battery storage projects. By pairing Crusoe’s vertically integrated, energy-first AI data center design with Energy Vault’s mission-critical power systems, the companies plan to address power and interconnection bottlenecks that constrain AI data center buildouts, potentially accelerating Energy Vault’s earnings growth as additional sites and customers are brought online.

The most recent analyst rating on (NRGV) stock is a Buy with a $5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Energy Vault Holdings stock, see the NRGV Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Energy Vault Updates Outlook with Strong 2025 Revenue Surge
Positive
Feb 11, 2026

Energy Vault Holdings has amended its financing arrangements with YA II PN, Ltd., having originally issued $50 million in senior unsecured convertible debentures in three tranches between September 22 and December 30, 2025, and subsequently agreeing on February 9, 2026 to amended and restated debentures that provide greater covenant flexibility, enhanced call protection for the earliest tranche and a mandatory redemption of all outstanding principal upon completion of certain future debt financings unless waived by investors. On February 11, 2026, the company also updated its risk factors, business disclosures and balance sheet metrics, and released preliminary unaudited estimates indicating a sharp jump in 2025 revenue to $200 million–$205 million from $46.2 million in 2024, improved gross margins and a narrower net loss, with adjusted EBITDA for full-year 2025 still negative but turning positive in the fourth quarter, signaling progress toward profitability even as its results remain subject to audit adjustments.

The company expects fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of $150 million–$155 million versus $33.5 million a year earlier, with gross margins rising to an estimated 18%–22% from 8%, and net loss shrinking to a range of $22.1 million–$9.5 million compared with $61.8 million in the prior-year quarter. For the full year 2025, Energy Vault projects adjusted EBITDA between a loss of $26 million and $21 million, a substantial improvement from a $57.9 million loss in 2024, and anticipates that fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA will swing to a $5 million–$10 million profit, underscoring operating leverage as its storage solutions scale despite continued overall losses and financing-related costs.

The most recent analyst rating on (NRGV) stock is a Buy with a $5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Energy Vault Holdings stock, see the NRGV Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and Financing
Energy Vault Announces $125 Million Convertible Notes Offering
Neutral
Feb 11, 2026

On February 11, 2026, Energy Vault announced a proposed private offering of $125 million in convertible senior notes due 2031 to qualified institutional buyers under Rule 144A, with an option for initial purchasers to buy an additional $25 million. The senior unsecured notes, which pay semiannual interest and may be settled in cash, stock or a combination upon conversion, are expected to support debt reduction, capped call costs and general corporate purposes, including further growth initiatives, while associated capped call transactions are designed to limit equity dilution and could introduce trading volatility as counterparties hedge their exposure.

The most recent analyst rating on (NRGV) stock is a Buy with a $5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Energy Vault Holdings stock, see the NRGV Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Energy Vault Begins Construction of Texas SOSA Energy Center
Positive
Jan 6, 2026

On January 5, 2026, Energy Vault announced that it began construction in the fourth quarter of 2025 on the SOSA Energy Center, a 150 MW/300 MWh battery energy storage system in Madison County, Texas, within the ERCOT North market, marking the fourth project in its Asset Vault portfolio and the first to enter construction under its Asset Vault investment platform backed by a $300 million preferred equity commitment from Orion Infrastructure Capital. The project, acquired from Savion, a Shell subsidiary, is targeted to reach commercial operation by the second quarter of 2027 and is expected to generate more than $350 million in total revenue over its technical life, while contributing to over 340 MW of capacity under operation and construction; alongside this, Energy Vault reported a roughly 65% increase in cash and liquidity in the fourth quarter of 2025 to more than $100 million, reinforcing its ability to self-perform EPC and long-term services, deepen its strategic presence in the Texas ERCOT market, and advance its vertically integrated, recurring-revenue “Own & Operate” strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (NRGV) stock is a Hold with a $5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Energy Vault Holdings stock, see the NRGV Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Energy Vault Adds Third Tranche of Convertible Debenture Financing
Neutral
Jan 2, 2026

On December 30, 2025, Energy Vault Holdings amended its existing securities purchase agreement with YA II PN, Ltd. to add a third tranche of $15 million in senior unsecured convertible debentures, bringing the total debenture financing under the arrangement to $65 million following earlier closings on September 22 and December 16, 2025. The new debentures, issued at 98% of principal and maturing on August 30, 2027 with a 7% coupon, carry a fixed conversion price of $7.41 per share and a structured monthly amortization schedule beginning January 26, 2026, subject to market-price-based adjustments, floor-price protections, and caps on ownership and share issuance; proceeds are earmarked for working capital and energy storage project development, while the amended covenants restrict additional indebtedness, variable-rate transactions, and use of the at-the-market equity program, underscoring the company’s continued reliance on private convertible debt financing to fund its storage pipeline and operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (NRGV) stock is a Hold with a $5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Energy Vault Holdings stock, see the NRGV Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Energy Vault raises additional $20 million via debentures
Positive
Dec 19, 2025

On December 16, 2025, Energy Vault Holdings, Inc. completed a subsequent closing under its previously disclosed September 22, 2025 Securities Purchase Agreement with YA II PN, Ltd., issuing an additional $20 million in senior unsecured convertible debentures, bringing the total raised under the arrangement to $50 million. The new debentures, issued at 97% of principal with a 7% annual interest rate and maturing on March 22, 2027, feature a fixed conversion price of $7.53 per share, detailed installment payment mechanics beginning January 26, 2026, caps on the investor’s ownership and conversions, and enhanced payment obligations upon specified amortization events, with net proceeds earmarked to strengthen working capital and support the development, construction and growth of Energy Vault’s energy storage projects through a privately placed, unregistered offering.

The most recent analyst rating on (NRGV) stock is a Hold with a $4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Energy Vault Holdings stock, see the NRGV Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Mar 18, 2026