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Sunnova Energy International (NOVA)
NYSE:NOVA

Sunnova Energy International (NOVA) AI Stock Analysis

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Sunnova Energy International

(NYSE:NOVA)

Rating:40Underperform
Price Target:
$0.00
▼(-100.00%Downside)
Sunnova Energy's low overall stock score is driven by severe financial distress, highlighted by a Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing and potential delisting. Persistent losses, high leverage, and bearish technical indicators further compound the negative outlook. The company's poor valuation and liquidity concerns underscore the need for cautious consideration by investors.
Positive Factors
Management Changes
The appointment of Paul Mathews as President and CEO is seen as a potential first step in a complicated debt refinancing/restructuring plan.
Potential Asset Sale
A potential resolution involving the sale of its loan book or net contracted assets could lead to a strong rally in the shares.
Tax Equity Markets
Improving conditions in tax equity capital markets are seen as encouraging, with the company trending closer to a blended ITC rate of 42%.
Negative Factors
CEO Departure
The unexpected departure of CEO John Berger could impact the anticipated refinancing and restructuring plans.
Debt Maturities
The lack of a plan to address the upcoming 2026 maturities creates uncertainty, contributing to stock volatility.
Liquidity Concerns
NOVA's liquidity is constrained, with limited options outside of filing for more funds.

Sunnova Energy International (NOVA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Sunnova Energy International Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionSunnova Energy International Inc. provides residential energy services in the United States. The company offers electricity, as well as offers operations and maintenance, monitoring, repairs and replacements, equipment upgrades, on-site power optimization, and diagnostics services. As of December 31, 2021, it operated a fleet of residential solar energy systems with a generation capacity of approximately 1,140 megawatts serving over 195,000 customers. Sunnova Energy International Inc. was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
How the Company Makes MoneySunnova Energy International generates revenue primarily through long-term, fixed-price solar service agreements with its customers. These agreements can take the form of leases, power purchase agreements (PPAs), or loans, where homeowners pay for the solar energy produced by Sunnova's installed systems over a set period. In addition to customer payments for these agreements, Sunnova also benefits from federal and state incentives, tax credits, and renewable energy certificates (RECs), which support its financial returns. Furthermore, the company partners with a network of local solar dealers and installers, expanding its market reach and enhancing its service offerings.

Sunnova Energy International Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Number of Customers
Number of Customers
Indicates the scale of Sunnova's customer base, reflecting market penetration and potential for revenue growth as more households adopt solar energy solutions.
Chart InsightsSunnova's customer base showed robust growth until mid-2024, but a notable decline occurred in Q2 2024, likely due to strategic shifts and a reduction of non-solar customers. Despite this dip, the customer count rebounded by year-end, reflecting a focus on solar customer acquisition, which surged by 70%. Operational efficiencies and asset-level financing bolstered their position, yet challenges like reduced guidance and market uncertainties remain. Sunnova's strategic emphasis on margin over growth and cost-saving measures, including a significant headcount reduction, are pivotal as they navigate financial hurdles.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Sunnova Energy International Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 23, 2025
(Q4-2024)
|
% Change Since: -91.30%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 23, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflected a mix of operational successes and financial challenges. While Sunnova achieved significant improvements in operational efficiency and revenue growth, it faced substantial hurdles with cash generation, market conditions, and debt maturities. The removal of future guidance and the going concern notice highlight ongoing uncertainties.
Q4-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Operational Efficiency Improvements
Reduction in net service expense by 24% per customer, reduction in work orders opened by 12%, and reduction in average age of work orders by 83%.
Customer and Revenue Growth
17% increase in revenue to $840 million, 29% increase in interest income, and 21% growth in principal proceeds from solar loans.
Record Asset-Level Financing
Securitized $1.8 billion worth of solar assets, raised $1.3 billion of tax equity, generating over $1 billion more in asset-level financing compared to the prior year.
Increased Battery Adoption
Battery attachment rate reached 33% in Q4 2024, up from 24% in Q4 2023.
Stockholders' Equity Growth
Sunnova's stockholders' equity per share increased by 17% to $14.65.
Negative Updates
Below Expectation Cash Generation
Cash generation for 2024 fell below expectations due to high interest rates, regulatory uncertainties, and peer distress.
Reduced Guidance and Workforce
Removed 2025 and 2026 cash generation guidance and reduced headcount by over 15%, with a total decline of 30% since the end of 2023.
Challenges with Market Conditions
Faced headwinds such as tax equity slowdowns and delays in project finance markets due to political events.
Impact of Non-Core Assets Sale
Net contracted customer value per share decreased by 4% due to selling nearly all non-core solar loans at a loss.
Going Concern Notice
Issued a going concern notice due to uncertainty in addressing 2026 corporate debt maturities.
Company Guidance
During the earnings call, Sunnova provided guidance with several key metrics that highlighted their strategic adjustments and financial performance for 2024. They reported a 17% increase in revenue to $840 million and a 29% rise in interest income to $150 million. Principal proceeds from solar loans grew by 21% to $191 million. Sunnova's cumulative customer base expanded by 5%, driven by a 70% growth in solar customers, despite a reduction of 57,000 non-solar customers. They achieved a 24% reduction in net service expense per customer and a 12% reduction in work orders while decreasing the average age of a work order by 83%. The company also significantly increased their asset-level financing by securitizing $1.8 billion worth of solar assets and raising $1.3 billion in tax equity. Although their net contracted customer value per share decreased by 4% to $24.22, Sunnova's stockholders' equity per share rose by 17% to $14.65. They executed seven securitizations totaling an additional $613 million in 2024 and increased their tax equity usage by 37%. Sunnova implemented cost-saving measures, including a 30% reduction in total headcount since the end of 2023, contributing to an estimated annual cash savings of approximately $70 million. Despite challenges, such as political uncertainty and capital market pressures, Sunnova remains focused on margin over growth, asset-level funding, and addressing their 2026 corporate debt maturities by mid-2025.

Sunnova Energy International Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Income Statement
Balance Sheet
Cash Flow
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
839.92M720.65M557.69M241.75M160.82M
Gross Profit
376.96M293.16M230.61M143.44M95.64M
EBIT
-239.54M-243.44M-81.50M-54.89M-35.78M
EBITDA
156.33M50.31M117.99M75.95M-86.96M
Net Income Common Stockholders
-367.89M-417.96M-161.64M-138.13M-252.28M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
211.19M212.83M360.26M243.10M209.86M
Total Assets
13.35B11.34B8.34B5.50B3.59B
Total Debt
8.46B7.52B5.41B3.27B2.04B
Net Debt
8.25B7.31B5.05B3.02B1.83B
Total Liabilities
10.67B9.21B6.45B3.88B2.31B
Stockholders Equity
1.83B1.53B1.27B1.19B951.73M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
-1.95B-2.07B-1.20B-763.77M-709.84M
Operating Cash Flow
-310.85M-237.56M-333.43M-209.23M-131.47M
Investing Cash Flow
-1.62B-2.54B-1.98B-1.24B-829.52M
Financing Cash Flow
1.98B2.73B2.47B1.46B1.19B

Sunnova Energy International Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price0.02
Price Trends
50DMA
0.23
Negative
100DMA
0.95
Negative
200DMA
3.75
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.03
Positive
RSI
22.55
Positive
STOCH
42.39
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NOVA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.02 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.20, below the 50-day MA of 0.23, and below the 200-day MA of 3.75, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 22.55 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 42.39 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NOVA.

Sunnova Energy International Risk Analysis

Sunnova Energy International disclosed 91 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Sunnova Energy International reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Sunnova Energy International Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
RURUN
65
Neutral
$2.28B-69.47%-2.08%-80.64%
62
Neutral
$11.97B10.29-7.47%2.99%7.32%-8.06%
60
Neutral
$60.45M-123.52%-43.69%12.75%
54
Neutral
$25.12M-84.64%-52.61%-987.53%
46
Neutral
$34.58M-49.28%8.97%-68.08%
42
Neutral
$55.47M
-48.65%13.64%
40
Underperform
$1.89M-21.91%16.55%15.72%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
NOVA
Sunnova Energy International
0.02
-5.46
-99.64%
RUN
Sunrun
5.78
-6.86
-54.27%
SPRU
Spruce Power Holding
1.94
-1.21
-38.41%
FTCI
FTC Solar
3.95
-0.71
-15.24%
TURB
Turbo Energy, S.A. Sponsored ADR
2.28
1.09
91.60%
SMXT
SolarMax Technology, Inc.
1.09
-3.47
-76.10%

Sunnova Energy International Corporate Events

Delistings and Listing ChangesM&A TransactionsLegal ProceedingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Sunnova Energy Files for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy
Negative
Jun 10, 2025

On June 8, 2025, Sunnova Energy International Inc. and its subsidiaries filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy to facilitate a sale process for certain assets and business operations. The New York Stock Exchange has commenced proceedings to delist Sunnova’s common stock, which is expected to trade on the Pink Open Market, potentially resulting in a less liquid market. Sunnova has entered into agreements to sell certain assets to ATLAS SP Partners and Lennar Homes, LLC, securing new capital to support operations during the bankruptcy process. The company plans to continue its operations and maintain customer service throughout the sale process, aiming to maximize value for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (NOVA) stock is a Hold with a $4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sunnova Energy International stock, see the NOVA Stock Forecast page.

Legal ProceedingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Sunnova Energy Files for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy
Negative
Jun 9, 2025

On June 8, 2025, Sunnova Energy International Inc. and its subsidiaries filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in the Southern District of Texas. As part of the proceedings, Sunnova entered into several agreements, including a credit agreement and asset purchase agreements, to restructure its financial commitments and sell certain assets. These transactions, involving significant cash considerations, aim to address the company’s financial challenges and facilitate its reorganization under bankruptcy protection.

The most recent analyst rating on (NOVA) stock is a Hold with a $4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sunnova Energy International stock, see the NOVA Stock Forecast page.

Delistings and Listing ChangesLegal Proceedings
Sunnova Energy Files for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy
Negative
Jun 9, 2025

On June 8, 2025, Sunnova Energy International Inc. and its affiliates filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in the Southern District of Texas. The company aims to continue operations as debtors in possession while seeking to sell certain assets under court supervision. This move is expected to impact its stock listing on the NYSE, potentially leading to delisting. The bankruptcy filing has accelerated certain debt obligations and may affect relationships with stakeholders, including employees and vendors.

The most recent analyst rating on (NOVA) stock is a Hold with a $4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sunnova Energy International stock, see the NOVA Stock Forecast page.

Legal ProceedingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Sunnova Energy Subsidiary Files for Bankruptcy
Negative
Jun 5, 2025

On June 1, 2025, Sunnova TEP Developer, LLC, a subsidiary of Sunnova Energy International, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, which triggered defaults on certain debt agreements. Despite this filing, the company does not anticipate significant impacts on its existing customer service operations. Additionally, on May 29, 2025, Sunnova’s Board approved a workforce reduction, cutting approximately 55% of its employees to lower operating expenses and preserve stakeholder value. The financial implications of this reduction are yet to be determined.

The most recent analyst rating on (NOVA) stock is a Hold with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sunnova Energy International stock, see the NOVA Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingFinancial Disclosures
Sunnova Energy Extends Forbearance Agreement Amid Challenges
Negative
May 30, 2025

On May 29, 2025, Sunnova Energy International Inc. announced an extension of their Forbearance Agreement related to their senior notes, initially dated May 2, 2025. This extension, which pushes the forbearance period to June 2, 2025, is crucial for the company as it navigates financial challenges, including a deferred interest payment on their 11.750% Senior Notes, which could impact their financial stability and stakeholder relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (NOVA) stock is a Hold with a $4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sunnova Energy International stock, see the NOVA Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesPrivate Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Sunnova Energy Amends Loan Guarantee Agreement
Neutral
May 29, 2025

On May 22, 2025, Sunnova Energy Corporation amended its Loan Guarantee Agreement with the U.S. Department of Energy, reducing the maximum aggregate amount of partial guarantees from $3 billion to $371.61 million due to a shift in customer demand from solar loans to leases and power purchase agreements. Additionally, the company announced a special bonus award for its CEO, Paul Mathews, contingent upon his continued employment through the end of 2025, and entered into a severance agreement with Interim CFO Robyn Liska, effective May 28, 2025, which notably lacks a non-compete clause.

The most recent analyst rating on (NOVA) stock is a Hold with a $4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sunnova Energy International stock, see the NOVA Stock Forecast page.

Delistings and Listing ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Sunnova Energy Faces NYSE Non-Compliance Notice
Negative
May 23, 2025

On May 20, 2025, Sunnova Energy International Inc. received a notice from the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) regarding its non-compliance with Section 802.01E of the NYSE Listed Company Manual due to a delay in filing its Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended March 31, 2025. The company has until November 19, 2025, to file the report and regain compliance, although the NYSE may start delisting proceedings if deemed necessary. The delay is attributed to ongoing discussions and negotiations concerning the company’s indebtedness, which have diverted resources from completing the report. The notice does not immediately affect the company’s securities listing, but there is no assurance of regaining compliance.

The most recent analyst rating on (NOVA) stock is a Hold with a $4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sunnova Energy International stock, see the NOVA Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Sunnova Extends Forbearance Agreement to Avoid Default
Neutral
May 22, 2025

On May 22, 2025, Sunnova Energy International Inc. and its partners agreed to extend a Forbearance Agreement initially dated May 2, 2025, concerning deferred interest payments on its senior notes. The extension, which lasts until May 29, 2025, aims to prevent default and cross-default scenarios, allowing the company to manage its financial obligations without triggering acceleration of debt maturity, thus providing stability to its operations and stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (NOVA) stock is a Hold with a $4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sunnova Energy International stock, see the NOVA Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Sunnova Extends Forbearance Agreement to May 22
Neutral
May 16, 2025

On May 15, 2025, Sunnova Energy International Inc. and other parties agreed to extend a Forbearance Agreement related to its senior notes, which was initially set to expire on May 8, 2025. This extension, now lasting until May 22, 2025, aims to prevent the acceleration of note maturity due to a previously deferred interest payment, thereby avoiding potential defaults and maintaining stability for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (NOVA) stock is a Hold with a $4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sunnova Energy International stock, see the NOVA Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingFinancial Disclosures
Sunnova Energy Extends Forbearance Agreement Amid Debt Concerns
Negative
May 9, 2025

On May 8, 2025, Sunnova Energy International Inc. and its associated parties agreed to extend a Forbearance Agreement initially dated May 2, 2025. This extension relates to the company’s decision to defer a $23.5 million interest payment on its 11.750% Senior Notes due April 1, 2025, which led to a potential default situation. The extension allows the company more time to manage its obligations without triggering an acceleration of debt maturity, which could have significant implications for its financial stability and stakeholder interests.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Sunnova Energy Enters Forbearance Agreement Amid Default
Negative
May 2, 2025

On May 2, 2025, Sunnova Energy International Inc. entered into a Forbearance Agreement with certain holders of its senior notes to address a Specified Default related to a deferred interest payment. The agreement, effective until May 8, 2025, prevents the holders from exercising their rights to accelerate the maturity of the notes due to the default, providing Sunnova time to negotiate debt reduction and improve financial flexibility.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Sunnova Energy Appoints New Chief Restructuring Officer
Neutral
Apr 29, 2025

On April 27, 2025, Sunnova Energy International appointed Ryan Omohundro as the Chief Restructuring Officer. Omohundro, with over 20 years of experience in restructuring, will bring his expertise to the company’s operations, potentially impacting its financial strategy and stakeholder relations.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Sunnova Energy Appoints New Independent Directors
Neutral
Apr 11, 2025

On April 11, 2025, Sunnova Energy International announced the appointment of Tony Horton and Jeffrey S. Stein as independent Class I directors to its Board, following the resignations of Akbar Mohamed and Mary Yang. Horton and Stein bring extensive financial and business expertise, enhancing the board’s capabilities in guiding the company through capital structure transactions and strategic transformations. Additionally, a Special Committee was formed to evaluate the company’s financial condition and strategic alternatives, reflecting Sunnova’s commitment to stabilizing its financial foundation and positioning for long-term success.

Executive/Board Changes
Sunnova Energy Extends CAO’s Employment Until September 2025
Neutral
Apr 10, 2025

Sunnova Energy International announced an extension of employment for Kimberly Hammer, their Senior Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer, until September 30, 2025, after her initial resignation was set for May 31, 2025. Additionally, the company approved special bonus awards for key executives, contingent upon their continuous employment and good standing through December 31, 2025, with specific financial implications if these conditions are not met.

Delistings and Listing ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Sunnova Faces NYSE Non-Compliance Notice
Negative
Apr 4, 2025

On April 3, 2025, Sunnova’s subsidiary, EZOP, amended its credit agreement to extend payment deadlines and forbearance on defaults related to dealer payment deficiencies. Additionally, Sunnova received a notice from the NYSE on April 1, 2025, regarding non-compliance with the minimum share price requirement, giving the company six months to address the deficiency. The notice does not impact Sunnova’s operations or SEC reporting, but failure to comply could lead to delisting, affecting stock liquidity and financing options.

Executive/Board ChangesPrivate Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Sunnova Energy Appoints Interim CFO Amid Debt Strategy
Neutral
Apr 1, 2025

On March 28, 2025, Sunnova Energy International appointed Robyn Liska as Interim Chief Financial Officer, effective March 31, 2025, following Eric Williams’ departure. Liska, with extensive experience in investment banking and renewable energy, is expected to enhance Sunnova’s financial agility and strategic planning. Concurrently, Sunnova is engaged in discussions to reduce its debt and improve financial flexibility, opting to enter a 30-day grace period for a $23.5 million interest payment due on April 1, 2025, as part of its strategy to preserve liquidity and strengthen its capital structure.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Sunnova Energy Approves Special Bonus for Executives
Positive
Mar 13, 2025

On March 9, 2025, Sunnova Energy International’s Board of Directors approved a Special Bonus Award for its named executive officers, excluding former executives William J. Berger and Robert Lane. The bonuses, contingent on continuous employment through December 31, 2025, are intended to incentivize current executives, with amounts ranging from $450,000 to $750,000. This decision reflects the company’s commitment to retaining key leadership and ensuring operational stability, potentially impacting its strategic positioning in the renewable energy market.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.