Newlake Capital Partners, Inc. (NLCP)
OTHER OTC:NLCP
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NewLake Capital Partners
(OTC:NLCP)
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Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$16.50
â–²(16.20% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
NLCP scores well on financial strength and risk profile (minimal leverage, strong liquidity, solid cash generation), with supportive income-oriented valuation (high dividend yield, moderate P/E). Offsetting these positives are slowing/negative near-term revenue momentum, tenant credit and vacancy challenges discussed on the earnings call, and a neutral-to-soft technical picture.
Positive Factors
Conservative balance sheet & liquidity
NewLake's extremely low leverage, large undrawn revolver and cash position create durable financial flexibility. With no maturities until May 2027 and ~78x debt service coverage, the REIT can absorb tenant stress, fund re-leasing and sustain distributions without relying on external capital in the near term.
Negative Factors
Vacancies and tenant credit stress
Persistent vacancies at multiple cultivation and retail sites and instances of unpaid rent signal elevated tenant credit risk in the portfolio. Slow re-tenanting amplifies revenue volatility over multiple quarters, reducing sustainable AFFO and increasing the time and cost required to restore stabilized cash flows.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative balance sheet & liquidity
NewLake's extremely low leverage, large undrawn revolver and cash position create durable financial flexibility. With no maturities until May 2027 and ~78x debt service coverage, the REIT can absorb tenant stress, fund re-leasing and sustain distributions without relying on external capital in the near term.
Read all positive factors
NewLake Capital Partners (NLCP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$305.62M
Dividend Yield11.49%
Average Volume (3M)100.69K
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.9
Beta (1Y)0.34
Revenue Growth-1.11%
EPS Growth0.73%
CountryUS
Employees8
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.25
Shares Outstanding20,580,767
10 Day Avg. Volume119,110
30 Day Avg. Volume100,693
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio15.85
Price to Book (P/B)0.85
Price to Sales (P/S)6.43
P/FCF Ratio7.93
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue6.16
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit30.11
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.27
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$17.00Price Target Upside19.72% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)1.13
Revenue Forecast (FY)$48.14M
NewLake Capital Partners Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
NewLake Capital Partners is a leading provider of real estate capital to state-licensed cannabis operators. Founded in 2019, it is a triple-net lease REIT that acquires industrial and retail properties through sale-leaseback transactions, third-pa...
How the Company Makes Money
NLCP primarily makes money by acquiring cannabis-related real estate and leasing it to licensed cannabis operators under long-term, triple-net (NNN) leases. Under this model, tenants generally pay base rent while also reimbursing property-level op...
NewLake Capital Partners Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call conveyed cautious optimism: NewLake reported modest revenue and AFFO growth, strong tenant cash flows from top operators, very low leverage and ample liquidity—key financial strengths. Offsetting these positives are persistent industry headwinds (capital scarcity, 280E tax burden), pockets of tenant stress and vacancies that pressured quarterly results, and ongoing re‑tenanting challenges. Management emphasized disciplined risk management and maintained conservative origination, signaling resilience but also limited near-term upside until policy reforms and tenant stability improve.Positive Updates
Modest Full-Year Revenue Growth
Total revenue of $51.1M for full year 2025, a 1.9% increase versus $50.1M in 2024 driven by 2025 Ohio dispensary acquisitions, full-year rent from a 2024 acquisition, funded improvement allowances and annual rent escalators.
Negative Updates
Quarterly Revenue and AFFO Softness
Fourth quarter revenue of $12.3M declined ~1.4% YoY, primarily due to vacancies; Q4 AFFO fell 3% YoY to $10.6M ($0.51 per share).
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Modest Full-Year Revenue Growth
Total revenue of $51.1M for full year 2025, a 1.9% increase versus $50.1M in 2024 driven by 2025 Ohio dispensary acquisitions, full-year rent from a 2024 acquisition, funded improvement allowances and annual rent escalators.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided a cautious, disciplined 2026 stance pending federal rescheduling and hemp-rule implementation, while highlighting strong financial positioning: FY‑2025 revenue $51.1M (+1.9% YoY) and AFFO $43.8M ($2.09/sh, +0.3% YoY), Q4 revenue $12.3M (‑1.4% YoY) and AFFO $10.6M ($0.51/sh, ‑3% YoY), FY net income $26.3M, and aggregate 2025 dividends $1.72/sh (82% AFFO payout; Q4 payout ~85%); the Board declared Q1‑2026 cash dividend $0.43/sh payable Apr 15 (record Mar 31); balance sheet metrics include $433M gross real estate assets, $23.9M cash, $82.4M undrawn revolver (total liquidity $106.3M), only $7.6M debt (1.6% debt-to-assets), ~78x debt service coverage, and no maturities until May 2027; portfolio and tenant metrics cited as additional confidence include top‑3 tenants (Curaleaf, Trulieve, Cresco) representing >50% of ABR with Curaleaf $1.3B net revenue/50% adj. gross margin/$90M FCF, Trulieve 60% gross margin/$230M FCF, Cresco 52% gross margin/>$70M operating cash flow (debt extended to 2030), Cannabist exposure trimmed from 9% to 8% ABR after a San Diego transition, and a $408k Ayr security deposit (~1.5 months’ rent) applied in Q4.NewLake Capital Partners Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
91
Very Positive
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 50.17M | 51.07M | 50.13M | 47.30M | 44.79M | 28.20M |
| Gross Profit | 10.27M | 18.84M | 49.89M | 46.65M | 44.73M | 28.06M |
| EBITDA | 42.51M | 43.13M | 42.03M | 39.67M | 35.34M | 19.69M |
| Net Income | 25.80M | 26.32M | 26.11M | 24.59M | 21.98M | 11.23M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 417.63M | 420.83M | 431.54M | 433.29M | 454.25M | 460.88M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 24.77M | 23.94M | 20.21M | 25.84M | 45.19M | 127.10M |
| Total Debt | 7.70M | 7.72M | 7.72M | 2.19M | 2.99M | 3.76M |
| Total Liabilities | 26.00M | 26.14M | 27.56M | 21.34M | 23.31M | 21.55M |
| Stockholders Equity | 384.94M | 387.94M | 396.76M | 404.58M | 423.55M | 427.56M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 42.69M | 41.40M | 43.35M | 40.08M | -8.24M | 11.53M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 42.69M | 42.11M | 43.35M | 40.08M | 37.01M | 26.70M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.21M | -1.49M | -19.14M | -12.84M | -86.45M | -39.91M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -36.66M | -36.90M | -29.84M | -46.60M | -32.46M | 120.69M |
NewLake Capital Partners Technical Analysis
Positive
14.20
Price Trends
14.56
Positive
14.76
Positive
13.70
Positive
Market Momentum
0.26
Negative
62.98
Neutral
88.12
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NLCP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 14.2 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.68, below the 50-day MA of 14.56, and above the 200-day MA of 13.70, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.26 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.98 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.12 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NLCP.
NewLake Capital Partners Risk Analysis
NewLake Capital Partners disclosed 79 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. NewLake Capital Partners reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
NewLake Capital Partners Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
NLCP
NewLake Capital Partners
14.85
1.75
13.40%
PW
Power REIT
0.83
-0.32
-27.70%
AFCG
AFC Gamma
3.73
-1.14
-23.41%
NewLake Capital Partners Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
NewLake Capital Reports Solid Q1 2026 Results, Maintains Liquidity
Neutral
May 8, 2026
NewLake Capital Partners reported first quarter 2026 revenue of $12.3 million and net income attributable to common stockholders of $5.8 million, with funds from operations of $9.7 million and adjusted funds from operations of $10.1 million. Manag...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
NewLake Capital Partners Posts Solid Q4 2025 Results
Positive
Mar 5, 2026
NewLake Capital Partners reported that for the fourth quarter of 2025, revenue was $12.3 million, with net income attributable to common stockholders of $6.0 million, funds from operations of $10.0 million and adjusted funds from operations of $10...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.