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NewLake Capital Partners
(OTC:NLCP)
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Rating:79Outperform
Price Target:
$18.00
â–²(13.71% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/06/26
NLCP’s score is primarily supported by strong underlying financial resilience (very low leverage and generally solid cash generation) and shareholder yield/valuation (high dividend yield with a moderate P/E). These positives are tempered by near-term operating risks highlighted in the latest results and call—revenue softness tied to vacancies and tenant uncertainty—while technicals remain moderately constructive rather than decisively strong.
Positive Factors
Conservative balance sheet
A near-zero leverage profile and sizable equity base materially reduce financial risk and preserve access to capital. Over a multi-month horizon this conservatism supports dividend coverage, allows selective acquisitions, and provides resilience through leasing cycles without relying on refinancing.
Negative Factors
Revenue decline and vacant assets
Lost rental income from three purpose-built cultivation properties materially depresses recurring cash flow because re-leasing such specialized assets is slow. Over 2–6 months, this vacancy-driven revenue shortfall can reduce AFFO and increase carrying costs until re-tenanting or disposition occurs.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative balance sheet
A near-zero leverage profile and sizable equity base materially reduce financial risk and preserve access to capital. Over a multi-month horizon this conservatism supports dividend coverage, allows selective acquisitions, and provides resilience through leasing cycles without relying on refinancing.
Read all positive factors
NewLake Capital Partners (NLCP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$323.53M
Dividend Yield10.98%
Average Volume (3M)63.43K
Price to Earnings (P/E)13.3
Beta (1Y)0.37
Revenue Growth-3.68%
EPS Growth-6.70%
CountryUS
Employees7
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.18
Shares Outstanding20,580,767
10 Day Avg. Volume62,975
30 Day Avg. Volume63,432
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio15.81
Price to Book (P/B)0.85
Price to Sales (P/S)6.43
P/FCF Ratio7.93
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit>-0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$17.00Price Target Upside7.39% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)1.13
Revenue Forecast (FY)$48.14M
NewLake Capital Partners Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
NewLake Capital Partners stands as a premier financier of real estate for businesses operating within the state-licensed cannabis sector. Established in 2019, this triple-net lease Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) strategically secures commerci...
How the Company Makes Money
NLCP primarily makes money by generating rental revenue from leasing its real estate portfolio to cannabis operators under long-term lease agreements, commonly structured as triple-net (NNN) leases. Under a triple-net structure, tenants are genera...
NewLake Capital Partners Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mix of encouraging structural positives — a conservative balance sheet, improved credit facility terms, maintained AFFO-supported dividend, an accretive Kentucky acquisition, and added lease guarantees — alongside tangible near-term operating headwinds including ~6% revenue decline, three vacant cultivation facilities reducing rental income, and a tenant bankruptcy that creates leasing uncertainty. Management emphasized disciplined underwriting and liquidity to navigate uncertainty, and noted an increasingly active pipeline and industry reform catalysts.Positive Updates
AFFO and Dividend Maintained
Adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) for Q2 2026 totaled $10.3 million or $0.49 per diluted share; the Board declared a cash dividend of $0.43 per share (quarterly), representing an AFFO payout ratio of 88%, within the company's 80%–90% target range.
Negative Updates
Revenue Decline Year-Over-Year
Total revenue for Q2 2026 was $12.1 million versus $12.9 million in Q2 prior year, a decline of approximately 6.2%; first six months revenue was $24.4 million versus $26.1 million prior year, down about 6.5%.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
AFFO and Dividend Maintained
Adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) for Q2 2026 totaled $10.3 million or $0.49 per diluted share; the Board declared a cash dividend of $0.43 per share (quarterly), representing an AFFO payout ratio of 88%, within the company's 80%–90% target range.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management said results were in line with expectations and reaffirmed the $0.43 quarterly dividend ($1.72 annualized) supported by an AFFO payout ratio of 88% (target range 80%–90%); Q2 2026 total revenue was $12.1M (vs. $12.9M YoY), net income attributable to common was $5.9M or $0.29/diluted share, FFO was $9.9M ($0.47/share) and AFFO was $10.3M ($0.49/share), with six‑month results of $24.4M revenue, $11.7M net income ($0.56/share), FFO $19.6M ($0.93/share) and AFFO $20.4M ($0.97/share); portfolio drivers included three vacant cultivation properties (PA, NV, MA) and contractual rent escalations averaging 2.6%; they closed a ~3.2k sq ft Kentucky dispensary in a transaction of roughly $2.1M (CFO noted ~$600k purchase plus ~$1.6M improvements), hold $25.8M cash, have only $7.6M drawn on a $90M revolver (debt/total assets 1.6%, debt/EBITDA ~0.2x), amended the revolver in August to extend maturity to May 2029 and cut interest by 100 bps (Prime+1% to Prime), and maintain ~1 month of security deposits on four Cannabist leases.NewLake Capital Partners Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
90
Very Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 49.32M | 51.07M | 50.13M | 47.30M | 44.79M | 28.20M |
| Gross Profit | -6.63M | 18.84M | 49.89M | 46.65M | 44.73M | 28.06M |
| EBITDA | 39.99M | 43.13M | 42.03M | 39.67M | 35.34M | 19.69M |
| Net Income | 24.37M | 26.32M | 26.11M | 24.59M | 21.98M | 11.23M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 414.85M | 420.83M | 431.54M | 433.29M | 454.25M | 460.88M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 25.76M | 23.94M | 20.21M | 25.84M | 45.19M | 127.10M |
| Total Debt | 0.00 | 7.72M | 7.72M | 2.19M | 2.99M | 3.76M |
| Total Liabilities | 25.97M | 26.14M | 27.56M | 21.34M | 23.31M | 21.55M |
| Stockholders Equity | 382.24M | 387.94M | 396.76M | 404.58M | 423.55M | 427.56M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 41.68M | 41.40M | 43.35M | 40.08M | -8.24M | 11.53M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 41.68M | 42.11M | 43.35M | 40.08M | 37.01M | 26.70M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.08M | -1.49M | -19.14M | -12.84M | -86.45M | -39.91M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -36.70M | -36.90M | -29.84M | -46.60M | -32.46M | 120.69M |
NewLake Capital Partners Technical Analysis
Positive
15.83
Price Trends
15.34
Positive
14.73
Positive
14.06
Positive
Market Momentum
0.13
Positive
54.98
Neutral
63.04
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NLCP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 15.83 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.61, above the 50-day MA of 15.34, and above the 200-day MA of 14.06, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.13 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.98 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 63.04 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NLCP.
NewLake Capital Partners Risk Analysis
NewLake Capital Partners disclosed 79 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. NewLake Capital Partners reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
NewLake Capital Partners Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
NLCP
NewLake Capital Partners
15.72
3.08
24.39%
PW
Power REIT
7.74
-6.76
-46.63%
AFCG
AFC Gamma
2.78
-1.54
-35.62%
NewLake Capital Partners Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial DisclosuresLegal ProceedingsM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
NewLake Capital Extends Credit Facility, Adds Kentucky Dispensary
Positive
Aug 5, 2026
For the second quarter ended June 30, 2026, NewLake Capital Partners reported revenue of $12.1 million and net income attributable to common stockholders of $5.9 million, or $0.29 per diluted share, alongside FFO of $9.9 million and AFFO of $10.3 ...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
NewLake Capital Reports Solid Q1 2026 Results, Maintains Liquidity
Neutral
May 8, 2026
NewLake Capital Partners reported first quarter 2026 revenue of $12.3 million and net income attributable to common stockholders of $5.8 million, with funds from operations of $9.7 million and adjusted funds from operations of $10.1 million. Manag...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.