NewLake Capital Partners (NLCP) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $314.46M
• Dividend Yield: 11.49%
• Average Volume (3M): 108.08K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.48
• Revenue Growth: 1.19%
• EPS Growth: -2.80%
• Country: US
• Employees: 8
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: REIT - Specialty
• EPS (TTM): 0.32
• Shares Outstanding: 20,552,631
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 100,375
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 108,081
• PEG Ratio: 1.81
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.91
• Price to Sales (P/S): 7.18
• P/FCF Ratio: 8.30
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.95
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 5.83
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.01
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 6.91
• 1Y Price Target: $16.00
• Price Target Upside: 4.58% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.15
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $46.46M

• Rating: 81 Outperform
• Price Target: $17.50 ▲(14.38% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 01/13/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 01/13/26

The score is driven primarily by strong financial fundamentals (high recent profitability, conservative leverage, and solid operating cash generation). Technicals add support with an established uptrend and positive momentum. Valuation is supportive via a reasonable P/E and very high yield, while the earnings call tempers the outlook due to tenant/rent-collection and vacancy pressures alongside sector regulatory uncertainty.

Positive Factors

Conservative Balance Sheet

Very low leverage and limited near-term debt maturities provide durable financial flexibility. This reduces refinancing and interest-rate risk, supports the dividend policy, and gives NLCP capacity to support tenants or pursue opportunistic acquisitions without jeopardizing core liquidity over the next several quarters.

Strong Cash Generation & AFFO

Consistent AFFO growth and strong operating cash conversion underpin dividend coverage and capital allocation. Reliable cash generation from net-leased assets supports ongoing distributions, tenant support actions, and selective reinvestment despite episodic industry stress, making earnings more sustainable long term.

Net-Lease Model & High-Quality Tenants

Triple-net sale-leasebacks shift property-level costs to tenants and create predictable rent streams. Leasing to large, cash-generative operators concentrates credit exposure but also enhances rent stability and lowers landlord operating burdens, supporting durable NOI and REIT-like margin resilience over multiple quarters.

Negative Factors

Regulatory & Capital Constraints in Cannabis

Ongoing federal and state regulatory uncertainty and constrained capital markets are structural headwinds for NLCP's tenants. Reduced funding access and slower market growth can impair tenant expansion, refinancing ability, and creditworthiness, increasing vacancy and rent-risk over a multi-quarter horizon.

Tenant Payment & Vacancy Risk

Concrete recent rent collection issues and an active vacancy demonstrate material tenant-credit risk in the portfolio. Even with NNN structures, missed payments and vacancies directly reduce cash flows and may require lease amendments or concessions, pressuring AFFO and dividend stability until resolved.

Volatile Free Cash Flow and Historical Earnings

Historical FCF volatility and episodic earnings swings reduce predictability of internally generated capital. That unpredictability can limit sustainable growth, force reliance on liquidity buffers, and constrain the company's ability to expand the portfolio or absorb tenant stress without diluting shareholders or cutting distributions.

NewLake Capital Partners Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

NewLake Capital Partners is a leading provider of real estate capital to state-licensed cannabis operators. Founded in 2019, it is a triple-net lease REIT that acquires industrial and retail properties through sale-leaseback transactions, third-party purchases and build-to-suit projects. Its tenants are some of the leading operators in the U.S. state-licensed cannabis industry and it is a trusted partner for their real estate needs.

How the Company Makes Money

NewLake Capital Partners generates revenue primarily through leasing its properties to tenants in the cannabis industry. The company's revenue model is centered around long-term leases, typically structured as triple net leases, where tenants are responsible for property expenses like maintenance, taxes, and insurance. This arrangement not only provides a steady income stream but also mitigates operational risks for NLCP. Additionally, the company engages in sale-leaseback transactions, allowing cannabis operators to raise capital by selling their real estate assets and leasing them back, which further enhances NLCP's property portfolio and rental income. Key revenue streams include rental income from its growing portfolio of cannabis-related properties and potential appreciation in property value. Partnerships with established cannabis operators and a focus on compliant, licensed facilities contribute significantly to NLCP's earnings stability and growth prospects.

NewLake Capital Partners Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong REIT-like profitability with consistently high margins in recent years, very low leverage, and generally solid operating cash flow. Offsetting factors include earlier-period earnings volatility and uneven free-cash-flow history (including a 2022 shortfall and a TTM decline versus 2024).

Income Statement

NLCP shows strong, REIT-like profitability with very high gross profit and consistently strong operating and net margins in 2021–2025. Revenue growth is positive and steady in the most recent periods (about mid-single digits in 2023–2025, including TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months)), though it has moderated from the outsized early growth rates. A key weakness is the historical volatility earlier in the period (notably the large loss and negative margins in 2020), which lowers the long-term consistency profile despite strong recent execution.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is conservatively levered, with very low debt relative to equity across all periods (roughly ~1–2% debt-to-equity in 2024 and TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months)). Equity and total assets are large and relatively stable, and returns on equity have improved materially from the early years and are now in the mid-single digits (2023–TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months)). The main drawback is that equity has drifted slightly lower versus 2021–2022 levels, suggesting limited balance-sheet expansion recently.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow is strong and has generally tracked earnings well, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow meaningfully exceeding net income (good cash realization). Free cash flow is positive in 2023–2025 and matches operating cash flow in the latest periods, supporting financial flexibility. However, free cash flow has been volatile over time—turning negative in 2022 and showing a sharp decline in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) versus 2024—so the trajectory is less stable than the income statement suggests.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	51.24M	50.13M	47.30M	44.79M	28.20M	11.66M
Gross Profit	42.57M	49.89M	46.65M	44.73M	28.06M	-3.96M
EBITDA	43.21M	42.03M	39.67M	35.34M	19.59M	-7.83M
Net Income	26.31M	26.11M	24.59M	21.98M	11.23M	-10.67M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	424.00M	431.54M	433.29M	454.25M	460.88M	144.18M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	23.57M	20.21M	25.84M	45.19M	127.10M	19.62M
Total Debt	7.71M	7.60M	2.19M	2.99M	3.76M	598.00K
Total Liabilities	26.39M	27.56M	21.34M	23.31M	21.55M	3.15M
Stockholders Equity	390.81M	396.76M	404.58M	423.55M	427.56M	134.76M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	42.99M	43.35M	40.08M	-8.24M	11.53M	7.35M
Operating Cash Flow	42.99M	43.35M	40.08M	37.01M	26.70M	7.35M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.96M	-19.14M	-12.84M	-86.45M	-39.91M	-65.05M
Financing Cash Flow	-37.30M	-29.84M	-46.60M	-32.46M	120.69M	10.42M

NewLake Capital Partners Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 15.30
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NLCP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 15.3 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.54, above the 50-day MA of 15.24, and above the 200-day MA of 13.81, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.40 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.81 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NLCP.

NewLake Capital Partners Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NLCP	81 Outperform	$314.46M	12.20	6.66%	11.49%	1.19%	-2.80%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
AFCG	48 Neutral	$51.52M	-2.19	-12.03%	30.82%	-47.13%	-361.12%

NewLake Capital Partners Corporate Events

NewLake Capital Partners Reports Q3 2025 Financial Results

NewLake Capital Partners reported its third quarter 2025 financial results, highlighting a revenue of $12.6 million, which remained flat year-over-year, and a net income of $6.7 million. The company declared a dividend of $0.43 per share, consistent with the previous year, and maintained a strong balance sheet despite challenges in the cannabis industry. The company also engaged in investment activities, including acquisitions and a like-kind exchange, and addressed tenant issues, such as the restructuring of AYR Wellness Inc., which affected rental income from certain properties.

The most recent analyst rating on (NLCP) stock is a Buy with a $15.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NewLake Capital Partners stock, see the NLCP Stock Forecast page.