Advanced Flower Capital Inc. (AFCG)
NASDAQ:AFCG
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AFC Gamma
(NASDAQ:AFCG)
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Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$4.00
▲(70.94% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/29/26
The score is held down primarily by weakening fundamentals—recent losses and negative operating/free cash flow—despite a reasonably moderate leverage profile. Technicals are a meaningful offset with strong upward momentum and price above key moving averages, while valuation metrics (very low P/E and high yield) are supportive but tempered by the underlying earnings/cash flow pressure. Earnings call commentary adds moderate support due to improving NAV and liquidity actions, but ongoing non-accruals and credit/legal uncertainty remain key risks.
Positive Factors
BDC conversion and strategic diversification
Conversion to a BDC is a structural change that broadens permissible investments beyond real-estate-backed loans. This expands addressable markets, allows direct entry into lower middle market private credit, and reduces single-sector concentration, supporting more durable origination and yield diversification over months.
Negative Factors
Negative cash flow and losses
Sustained negative operating and free cash flow and recent net losses weaken internal funding for lending and distributions. Over a multi-month horizon this reduces financial flexibility, increases dependence on borrowed liquidity or equity, and constrains ability to absorb credit shocks without dilutive or costly capital.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
BDC conversion and strategic diversification
Conversion to a BDC is a structural change that broadens permissible investments beyond real-estate-backed loans. This expands addressable markets, allows direct entry into lower middle market private credit, and reduces single-sector concentration, supporting more durable origination and yield diversification over months.
Read all positive factors
AFC Gamma (AFCG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$87.76M
Dividend Yield30.82%
Average Volume (3M)308.91K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.13
Revenue Growth-32.06%
EPS Growth-165.35%
CountryUS
EmployeesN/A
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryREIT - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.64
Shares Outstanding23,528,845
10 Day Avg. Volume321,488
30 Day Avg. Volume308,906
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.36
Price to Sales (P/S)2.02
P/FCF Ratio5.64
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.02
Enterprise Value/Revenue8.09
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit101.53
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-20.63
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)0.54
Revenue Forecast (FY)$30.12M
AFC Gamma Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Advanced Flower Capital, Inc. provides commercial real estate finance services. It primarily engages in originating, structuring, underwriting and managing senior secured loans and other types of loans for established companies operating in the ca...
How the Company Makes Money
AFC Gamma makes money primarily by originating and holding loans and earning contractual interest income on those loans. Its core revenue stream is interest earned on senior secured and structured loans made to cannabis operators and adjacent busi...
AFC Gamma Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a constructive strategic shift and tangible progress: conversion to a BDC, meaningful new commitments, a large $1.5 billion pipeline, NAV improvement (+$0.44/ +5.9% QoQ), an expanded credit facility, and a share buyback authorization. Offsetting these positives are three non-accrual loans including a matured defaulted loan (Justice Grown) with pending litigation, expected yield compression as the firm moves into lower middle market lending, and reliance on repayments and staged fundings to deploy capital. Overall, management presented a balanced but forward-looking tone with progress on diversification and liquidity, while acknowledging credit-specific challenges being actively managed.Positive Updates
Successful Conversion to a BDC and Strategic Expansion
Completed first quarter operating as a business development company (BDC), expanding investment flexibility beyond real-estate-backed loans and enabling entry into lower middle market private credit.
Negative Updates
Non-Accrual Loans
Company currently has three loans on non-accrual, representing a material portion of the portfolio and reducing current income; management is focused on receiving paydowns and redeploying capital into performing credits.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Successful Conversion to a BDC and Strategic Expansion
Completed first quarter operating as a business development company (BDC), expanding investment flexibility beyond real-estate-backed loans and enabling entry into lower middle market private credit.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company’s guidance centers on a deliberate expansion into lower middle market private credit where it sees attractive risk-adjusted returns: a pipeline of over $1.5 billion, a target borrower sweet spot with $5–$50 million of EBITDA, and expected portfolio yields that may moderate to the low double-digit range overall even as lower middle market yields are running roughly 100–300 basis points higher than six months ago. Recent execution supports that plan—two non‑cannabis deals closed in Q1 totaling ~$90 million (plus an additional $5 million post‑quarter), Q1 net fundings of $39.1 million, $41.2 million of cannabis loan repayments in the quarter, three loans remain on non‑accrual with a $6.2 million Q1 paydown (total Debbie recoveries $20.8 million), and portfolio principal outstanding of $356.6 million across 15 loans as of 3/31/2026 (rising to $370 million across 17 loans as of 5/1/2026). Financial flexibility cited includes total assets of $394.9 million, shareholders’ equity of $185.8 million, NAV per share $7.90 (up $0.44 QoQ), total investment income $9.8 million and net investment income $4.8 million ($0.21 per share), a $0.05 Q1 dividend, a $5 million share buyback authorization, and an expanded $80 million revolver (expandable to $100 million) with an average drawn balance of ~$22 million in Q1.AFC Gamma Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
28
Negative
Balance Sheet
54
Neutral
Cash Flow
24
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 21.94M | 31.32M | 51.90M | 51.80M | 71.54M | 38.08M |
| Gross Profit | 1.75M | 28.39M | 41.49M | 51.80M | 60.36M | 35.43M |
| EBITDA | -8.60M | -14.53M | 20.65M | 0.00 | 81.95M | 38.59M |
| Net Income | -13.31M | -20.67M | 16.78M | 20.95M | 35.93M | 21.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 394.88M | 275.59M | 402.06M | 466.59M | 519.18M | 464.85M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 112.73M | 38.61M | 103.61M | 90.38M | 140.37M | 125.13M |
| Total Debt | 202.45M | 76.32M | 188.61M | 130.01M | 157.13M | 171.42M |
| Total Liabilities | 209.06M | 100.03M | 200.68M | 146.53M | 180.12M | 191.77M |
| Stockholders Equity | 185.82M | 175.57M | 201.38M | 320.05M | 339.06M | 273.08M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 13.58M | 11.24M | 21.56M | 21.23M | 31.32M | 9.54M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 13.58M | 11.24M | 21.56M | 21.23M | 31.32M | 9.54M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 16.87M | 34.90M | -4.85M | 28.52M | -16.34M | -248.46M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 78.96M | -111.14M | -34.72M | -68.49M | 16.15M | 338.54M |
AFC Gamma Technical Analysis
Positive
2.34
Price Trends
2.97
Positive
2.68
Positive
3.06
Positive
Market Momentum
0.23
Negative
67.79
Neutral
84.91
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AFCG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.34 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.30, below the 50-day MA of 2.97, and below the 200-day MA of 3.06, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.23 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.79 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.91 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AFCG.
AFC Gamma Risk Analysis
AFC Gamma disclosed 92 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. AFC Gamma reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
AFC Gamma Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
AFCG
AFC Gamma
3.67
-1.04
-22.00%
PW
Power REIT
0.77
-0.33
-30.18%
FPI
Farmland
10.30
-0.65
-5.95%
AFC Gamma Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
AFC Gamma Shareholders Back Directors and Auditor Appointments
Positive
May 28, 2026
On May 28, 2026, Advanced Flower Capital Inc. held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders, where investors in the company’s common stock voted on key governance matters. Shareholders approved the reelection of Class III directors Alexander ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
AFC Gamma Expands Senior Secured Revolving Credit Facility
Positive
Mar 31, 2026
On March 27, 2026, Advanced Flower Capital Inc. amended its Loan and Security Agreement to expand aggregate revolving commitments to $106 million, combining a $30 million permanent increase with a $26 million temporary boost through April 10, 2026...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.