Advanced Flower Capital Inc. (AFCG)
NASDAQ:AFCG
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AFC Gamma
(NASDAQ:AFCG)
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Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
$2.50
â–²(6.84% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/31/26
The score is held down primarily by the sharp deterioration in 2025 financial performance (revenue collapse and GAAP loss) and ongoing legacy credit pressure. Offsetting factors include improved leverage, positive (though weakening) cash generation, and a moderately constructive technical backdrop. Management’s strategic shift to a BDC and a larger pipeline support a potential recovery, but reserves/nonaccruals and refinancing considerations keep risk elevated.
Positive Factors
Improved Leverage
Material reduction in leverage meaningfully improves balance-sheet flexibility and reduces solvency risk. Lower debt burdens give management more runway to refinance selectively, fund new originations from repayments, and absorb credit volatility without immediate forced asset sales.
Negative Factors
Revenue Collapse & GAAP Loss
A full-year revenue collapse and sizable GAAP loss materially weakens earnings power and raises questions about sustainable distributable cash. Persistent GAAP losses can force dividends to be labelled return-of-capital, reduce investor confidence, and limit ability to retain earnings for rebuild.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improved Leverage
Material reduction in leverage meaningfully improves balance-sheet flexibility and reduces solvency risk. Lower debt burdens give management more runway to refinance selectively, fund new originations from repayments, and absorb credit volatility without immediate forced asset sales.
Read all positive factors
AFC Gamma (AFCG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$59.53M
Dividend Yield30.82%
Average Volume (3M)260.48K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.98
Revenue Growth-47.13%
EPS Growth-361.12%
CountryUS
EmployeesN/A
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.12
Shares Outstanding23,528,845
10 Day Avg. Volume164,265
30 Day Avg. Volume260,476
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.36
Price to Sales (P/S)2.02
P/FCF Ratio5.64
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.99
Enterprise Value/Revenue56.10
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit84.97
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-38.34
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)0.57
Revenue Forecast (FY)$26.05M
AFC Gamma Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Advanced Flower Capital, Inc. provides commercial real estate finance services. It primarily engages in originating, structuring, underwriting and managing senior secured loans and other types of loans for established companies operating in the ca...
How the Company Makes Money
AFC Gamma primarily makes money from investment income generated by its lending and structured finance portfolio. Its key revenue stream is interest income earned on senior secured loans it originates or acquires; these loans typically carry contr...
AFC Gamma Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 04, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call balanced meaningful strategic progress and near-term commercial traction — notably the REIT-to-BDC conversion, $117M of paydowns, a greatly expanded $1.4B pipeline, and new lower middle market deals with attractive reported yields — against persistent legacy credit challenges, a sizeable GAAP loss for 2025, three nonaccrual loans, meaningful CECL reserves (18.2%), unrealized losses, and upcoming debt maturities that create refinancing risk. Highlights show clear paths to redeploy capital into higher-yielding middle market loans, but recovery timing on underperforming assets and the GAAP loss temper the near-term outlook.Positive Updates
Conversion to a BDC Expands Investment Universe
Completed conversion from a REIT to a BDC effective 01/01/2026, enabling investment beyond real-estate-backed loans into a broader set of cash-flowing lower middle market opportunities.
Negative Updates
GAAP Loss for Full Year
GAAP net loss for fiscal year 2025 was $20,700,000, or $0.95 per basic weighted average common share, driven in part by realized losses on underperforming credits.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Conversion to a BDC Expands Investment Universe
Completed conversion from a REIT to a BDC effective 01/01/2026, enabling investment beyond real-estate-backed loans into a broader set of cash-flowing lower middle market opportunities.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management’s guidance emphasized the company’s January 1, 2026 conversion to a BDC (broadening the investable universe), a Board‑declared Q1 dividend of $0.05 per share (record 03/31/2026, pay 04/15/2026), and an active deployment plan supported by a $1.4 billion pipeline (up from $400 million last quarter) targeting lower‑middle‑market borrowers with $5–50 million EBITDA; early 2026 activity included closing a $60.0 million senior secured facility and committing $30.0 million (funded $20.0 million) to another $60.0 million loan. Management said capital for new originations will come from paydowns ( $117.0 million since the start of 2025, including two loan repayments at par plus $1.8 million in fees), expected recoveries from legacy assets (Private Company A: $6.3 million received in 2025 with $6.4 million pending; Private Company K sales expected in 2026; Justice Grown loan matures 05/01/2026), and balance‑sheet capacity (portfolio principal $317.4M at 12/31/2025 and $366.4M as of 02/25/2026 across 15 loans; CECL reserve $46.1M or 18.2%; unrealized loan loss $27.7M; book value $7.46), while noting recent results of distributable earnings of -$2.8M (−$0.12/share) in Q4 and $8.7M ($0.39/share) for FY2025 and a GAAP net loss of $20.7M (−$0.95/share) for FY2025.AFC Gamma Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
28
Negative
Balance Sheet
56
Neutral
Cash Flow
48
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 31.32M | 51.90M | 51.80M | 71.54M | 38.08M |
| Gross Profit | 28.39M | 41.49M | 51.80M | 60.36M | 35.43M |
| EBITDA | -14.53M | 20.65M | 0.00 | 81.95M | 38.59M |
| Net Income | -20.67M | 16.78M | 20.95M | 35.93M | 21.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 275.59M | 402.06M | 466.59M | 519.18M | 464.85M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 38.61M | 103.61M | 90.38M | 140.37M | 125.13M |
| Total Debt | 76.32M | 188.61M | 130.01M | 157.13M | 171.42M |
| Total Liabilities | 100.03M | 200.68M | 146.53M | 180.12M | 191.77M |
| Stockholders Equity | 175.57M | 201.38M | 320.05M | 339.06M | 273.08M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 11.24M | 21.56M | 21.23M | 31.32M | 9.54M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 11.24M | 21.56M | 21.23M | 31.32M | 9.54M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 34.90M | -4.85M | 28.52M | -16.34M | -248.46M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -111.14M | -34.72M | -68.49M | 16.15M | 338.54M |
AFC Gamma Technical Analysis
Negative
2.34
Price Trends
2.45
Positive
2.60
Negative
3.25
Negative
Market Momentum
0.04
Positive
45.56
Neutral
6.83
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AFCG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.34 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.66, below the 50-day MA of 2.45, and below the 200-day MA of 3.25, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.56 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 6.83 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AFCG.
AFC Gamma Risk Analysis
AFC Gamma disclosed 92 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. AFC Gamma reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
AFC Gamma Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
AFCG
AFC Gamma
2.53
-2.07
-45.05%
PW
Power REIT
0.83
-0.29
-25.71%
FPI
Farmland
11.78
2.19
22.90%
AFC Gamma Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
AFC Gamma Expands Senior Secured Revolving Credit Facility
Positive
Mar 31, 2026
On March 27, 2026, Advanced Flower Capital Inc. amended its Loan and Security Agreement to expand aggregate revolving commitments to $106 million, combining a $30 million permanent increase with a $26 million temporary boost through April 10, 2026...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
AFC Gamma Secures $20 Million Related-Party Credit Facility
Positive
Jan 29, 2026
On January 27, 2026, Advanced Flower Capital Inc. entered into an unsecured revolving credit agreement with TCGSL LLC, an affiliate controlled by Chairman Leonard M. Tannenbaum and his family, providing a $20 million aggregate commitment maturing ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
AFC Gamma Amends Loan Agreement After BDC Conversion
Positive
Jan 16, 2026
On January 13, 2026, Advanced Flower Capital Inc. entered into a Sixth Amendment to its Loan and Security Agreement, originally dated April 29, 2022, with its existing lender group and lead arranger. The amendment updates the facility to include p...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.