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Advanced Flower Capital Inc. (AFCG)
NASDAQ:AFCG
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AFC Gamma (AFCG) AI Stock Analysis

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AFCG

AFC Gamma

(NASDAQ:AFCG)

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Neutral 47 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:47Neutral
Price Target:
$2.50
â–²(6.84% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/01/26
The score is primarily weighed down by weakened financial performance, with losses and negative operating/free cash flow creating elevated risk despite a moderately levered balance sheet. Technicals are mixed but lean bearish near-term as the stock sits below short-term moving averages. Offsetting factors include a high dividend yield and a more constructive earnings call highlighting NAV improvement, liquidity actions, and pipeline growth, though credit/non-accrual issues and yield compression guidance temper the outlook.
Positive Factors
Strategic conversion to BDC
Converting to a BDC is a structural shift that broadens permissible investments beyond REIT-style, real-estate-backed loans. This durable change increases addressable deal flow, allows portfolio diversification into private credit and lowers concentration risk in cannabis lending, supporting steadier long-term earnings potential.
Negative Factors
Negative earnings and cash flow
Sustained negative net income and materially negative operating/free cash flow constrain retained capital, pressure dividend sustainability, and increase dependence on external funding. Over the next 2-6 months this limits deployment optionality and raises refinancing and liquidity vulnerability if losses persist or originations lag.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strategic conversion to BDC
Converting to a BDC is a structural shift that broadens permissible investments beyond REIT-style, real-estate-backed loans. This durable change increases addressable deal flow, allows portfolio diversification into private credit and lowers concentration risk in cannabis lending, supporting steadier long-term earnings potential.
Read all positive factors

AFC Gamma (AFCG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

AFC Gamma Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description
Advanced Flower Capital Inc. originates, structures, underwrites, invests in, and manages senior secured loans and other types of mortgage loans and debt securities for established companies operating in the cannabis industry. It primarily origina...
How the Company Makes Money
AFC Gamma makes money primarily by originating and holding loans and earning contractual interest income on those loans. Its core revenue stream is interest earned on senior secured and structured loans made to cannabis operators and adjacent busi...

AFC Gamma Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a constructive strategic shift and tangible progress: conversion to a BDC, meaningful new commitments, a large $1.5 billion pipeline, NAV improvement (+$0.44/ +5.9% QoQ), an expanded credit facility, and a share buyback authorization. Offsetting these positives are three non-accrual loans including a matured defaulted loan (Justice Grown) with pending litigation, expected yield compression as the firm moves into lower middle market lending, and reliance on repayments and staged fundings to deploy capital. Overall, management presented a balanced but forward-looking tone with progress on diversification and liquidity, while acknowledging credit-specific challenges being actively managed.
Positive Updates
Successful Conversion to a BDC and Strategic Expansion
Completed first quarter operating as a business development company (BDC), expanding investment flexibility beyond real-estate-backed loans and enabling entry into lower middle market private credit.
Negative Updates
Non-Accrual Loans
Company currently has three loans on non-accrual, representing a material portion of the portfolio and reducing current income; management is focused on receiving paydowns and redeploying capital into performing credits.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Negative
Successful Conversion to a BDC and Strategic Expansion
Completed first quarter operating as a business development company (BDC), expanding investment flexibility beyond real-estate-backed loans and enabling entry into lower middle market private credit.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company’s guidance centers on a deliberate expansion into lower middle market private credit where it sees attractive risk-adjusted returns: a pipeline of over $1.5 billion, a target borrower sweet spot with $5–$50 million of EBITDA, and expected portfolio yields that may moderate to the low double-digit range overall even as lower middle market yields are running roughly 100–300 basis points higher than six months ago. Recent execution supports that plan—two non‑cannabis deals closed in Q1 totaling ~$90 million (plus an additional $5 million post‑quarter), Q1 net fundings of $39.1 million, $41.2 million of cannabis loan repayments in the quarter, three loans remain on non‑accrual with a $6.2 million Q1 paydown (total Debbie recoveries $20.8 million), and portfolio principal outstanding of $356.6 million across 15 loans as of 3/31/2026 (rising to $370 million across 17 loans as of 5/1/2026). Financial flexibility cited includes total assets of $394.9 million, shareholders’ equity of $185.8 million, NAV per share $7.90 (up $0.44 QoQ), total investment income $9.8 million and net investment income $4.8 million ($0.21 per share), a $0.05 Q1 dividend, a $5 million share buyback authorization, and an expanded $80 million revolver (expandable to $100 million) with an average drawn balance of ~$22 million in Q1.

AFC Gamma Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Fundamentals show a clear deterioration: income statement profitability shifted to sizable losses (TTM net income -$19.9M) and cash generation weakened materially with negative operating/free cash flow (TTM OCF/FCF -$23.5M). The balance sheet is moderately levered (debt-to-equity ~0.41–0.43) with sizable equity, but negative earnings and cash burn increase risk to dividend sustainability and financial flexibility.
Income Statement
28
Negative
Balance Sheet
54
Neutral
Cash Flow
24
Negative
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue21.94M31.32M51.90M51.80M71.54M38.08M
Gross Profit1.75M28.39M41.49M51.80M60.36M35.43M
EBITDA-8.60M-14.53M21.67M0.0081.95M38.59M
Net Income-13.31M-20.67M16.78M20.95M35.93M21.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets394.88M275.59M402.06M466.59M519.18M464.85M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments112.73M38.61M103.61M90.38M140.37M125.13M
Total Debt202.45M97.32M188.61M130.01M157.13M171.42M
Total Liabilities209.06M100.03M200.68M146.53M180.12M191.77M
Stockholders Equity185.82M175.57M201.38M320.05M339.06M273.08M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow13.58M11.24M21.56M21.23M31.32M9.54M
Operating Cash Flow13.58M11.24M21.56M21.23M31.32M9.54M
Investing Cash Flow16.87M34.90M-4.85M28.52M-16.34M-248.46M
Financing Cash Flow78.96M-111.14M-34.72M-68.49M16.15M338.54M

AFC Gamma Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price2.34
Price Trends
50DMA
3.21
Negative
100DMA
2.92
Negative
200DMA
2.87
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.11
Positive
RSI
30.30
Neutral
STOCH
15.61
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AFCG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.34 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.00, below the 50-day MA of 3.21, and below the 200-day MA of 2.87, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.11 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 30.30 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.61 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AFCG.

AFC Gamma Risk Analysis

AFC Gamma disclosed 92 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. AFC Gamma reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

AFC Gamma Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
68
Neutral
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
56
Neutral
$420.03M13.826.57%14.23%-7.90%-46.71%
47
Neutral
$62.27M-4.27-7.44%30.82%-32.06%-165.35%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AFCG
AFC Gamma
2.69
-1.82
-40.39%
PW
Power REIT
9.22
-2.58
-21.86%
FPI
Farmland
9.71
-1.03
-9.63%

AFC Gamma Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
AFC Gamma Expands Revolving Credit Capacity with Amendment
Positive
Jun 30, 2026
On June 26, 2026, Advanced Flower Capital Inc. amended its Loan and Security Agreement, aligning certain reporting requirements with market standards for business development companies and setting conditions for including specific credit facilitie...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
AFC Gamma Launches Targeted Share Repurchase Program
Positive
Jun 18, 2026
Advanced Flower Capital Inc. has implemented a share repurchase program authorizing the buyback of up to $5 million of its common stock at or below $3.50 per share, with the plan expected to remain in place until the earlier of fully utilizing the...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
AFC Gamma Shareholders Back Directors and Auditor Appointments
Positive
May 28, 2026
On May 28, 2026, Advanced Flower Capital Inc. held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders, where investors in the company’s common stock voted on key governance matters. Shareholders approved the reelection of Class III directors Alexander ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 01, 2026