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AFC Gamma (AFCG)
NASDAQ:AFCG
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AFC Gamma (AFCG) AI Stock Analysis

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AFCG

AFC Gamma

(NASDAQ:AFCG)

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Neutral 47 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:47Neutral
Price Target:
$2.50
â–¼(-2.72% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/01/26
The score is primarily weighed down by weakened financial performance, with losses and negative operating/free cash flow creating elevated risk despite a moderately levered balance sheet. Technicals are mixed but lean bearish near-term as the stock sits below short-term moving averages. Offsetting factors include a high dividend yield and a more constructive earnings call highlighting NAV improvement, liquidity actions, and pipeline growth, though credit/non-accrual issues and yield compression guidance temper the outlook.
Positive Factors
BDC conversion expands investment flexibility
Converting to a BDC is a structural change that permanently broadens allowable investments beyond real-estate-backed lending. This affords AFCG durable strategic flexibility to access diverse private credit opportunities, reduce concentration in cannabis, and target higher-return lower-middle-market credits over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Negative operating and free cash flow
Sustained negative operating and free cash flow (-$23.5M TTM) is a durable constraint on internal funding for new originations, dividend distributions, and loss-absorbing capacity. Unless cash generation reverses, the firm will rely more on external liquidity and capital actions, increasing financing risk and reducing long-term financial flexibility.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
BDC conversion expands investment flexibility
Converting to a BDC is a structural change that permanently broadens allowable investments beyond real-estate-backed lending. This affords AFCG durable strategic flexibility to access diverse private credit opportunities, reduce concentration in cannabis, and target higher-return lower-middle-market credits over the medium term.
Read all positive factors

AFC Gamma (AFCG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

AFC Gamma Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description
Advanced Flower Capital Inc. originates, structures, underwrites, invests in, and manages senior secured loans and other types of mortgage loans and debt securities for established companies operating in the cannabis industry. It primarily origina...
How the Company Makes Money
AFC Gamma makes money primarily by earning interest income on the loans it originates and holds in its investment portfolio. Its core revenue stream is recurring interest from predominantly senior secured loans (including loans collateralized by r...

AFC Gamma Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 13, 2026
(Q2-2026)
|
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed constructive operational progress: NAV increased, share repurchases were accretive, portfolio yield remains attractive (13.2%), liquidity is ample (~$106.5M cash and >$70M deployable), and the company is actively redeploying into non-cannabis lower middle market opportunities (1.3B pipeline). Offsetting these positives are concentrated legacy cannabis non-accruals (including an active default and foreclosure), a quarter-over-quarter dip in reported investment income due to Q1 episodic exit fees, and originations that were lumpy and slower in Q2. Management has made tangible progress on legacy recoveries (Devi and DMA) and improved post-quarter leverage via revolver repayments, which supports a cautiously optimistic outlook.
Positive Updates
Net Investment Income and Distribution Coverage
Net investment income of $3.5M, or $0.15 per weighted average share for Q2 2026, providing 3x coverage of the $0.05 quarterly distribution paid on 07/15/2026.
Negative Updates
Legacy Cannabis Non-Accrual Concentration and Defaults
Non-accrual loans remain concentrated in the legacy cannabis book. Justice Grown loan matured 05/01/2026 and is in maturity default; AFC has commenced Article 9 foreclosures and engaged SSG Advisors to market assets. Active litigation limits disclosure and creates uncertainty around ultimate recoveries.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Negative
Net Investment Income and Distribution Coverage
Net investment income of $3.5M, or $0.15 per weighted average share for Q2 2026, providing 3x coverage of the $0.05 quarterly distribution paid on 07/15/2026.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that they remain focused on redeploying capital into the lower middle market where they see attractive, disciplined opportunities, noting a $1.3 billion pipeline and ~$102 million of YTD new commitments while cautioning originations will be lumpy; they said they have ample capacity to act with over $70 million of deployable liquidity, $106.5 million of cash and cash equivalents, and the ability to co‑invest or syndicate larger transactions. Key Q2 metrics cited include NAV of $8.25 (+$0.35 q/q) with net assets of $187.3 million and total assets of $399.7 million, principal outstanding of $364.5 million across 17 loans, portfolio fair value $290 million, 100% senior‑secured first‑lien positioning and a weighted‑average yield (ex‑nonaccruals) of 13.2%; operating results were $8.7 million of total investment income and $3.5 million of net investment income ($0.15/share), providing 3x coverage of the $0.05/share distribution. Balance‑sheet and capital‑management metrics highlighted: $207 million of debt outstanding ( $110M secured revolver, $20M unsecured revolver, $77M senior notes) at a 6.3% weighted average rate, debt/equity 1.1x, net debt/equity 0.53x, asset coverage 190% (vs 150% requirement), Q2 buybacks of ~$2.8M (839k shares at $3.29; $0.17 NAV accretion) with $2.2M remaining under the $5M program. Management reiterated focus on cash‑flowing borrowers with $5M–$50M EBITDA, continued resolution of legacy cannabis non‑accruals (Devi sale for $12.5M with $2M deposit and ~80% participation; $58M principal repaid to date; DMA asset sales closed; Justice Grown in foreclosure), and a stated intermediate leverage target around 1.0x.

AFC Gamma Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Fundamentals show a clear deterioration: income statement profitability shifted to sizable losses (TTM net income -$19.9M) and cash generation weakened materially with negative operating/free cash flow (TTM OCF/FCF -$23.5M). The balance sheet is moderately levered (debt-to-equity ~0.41–0.43) with sizable equity, but negative earnings and cash burn increase risk to dividend sustainability and financial flexibility.
Income Statement
28
Negative
Balance Sheet
54
Neutral
Cash Flow
24
Negative
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue24.30M31.32M51.90M51.80M71.54M38.08M
Gross Profit13.13M28.39M41.49M51.80M60.36M35.43M
EBITDA4.70M-14.53M21.67M0.0081.95M38.59M
Net Income3.33M-20.67M16.78M20.95M35.93M21.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets399.72M275.59M402.06M466.59M519.18M464.85M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments106.51M38.61M103.61M90.38M140.37M125.13M
Total Debt76.58M97.32M188.61M130.01M157.13M171.42M
Total Liabilities212.45M100.03M200.68M146.53M180.12M191.77M
Stockholders Equity187.27M175.57M201.38M320.05M339.06M273.08M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-31.49M11.24M21.56M21.23M31.32M9.54M
Operating Cash Flow-31.49M11.24M21.56M21.23M31.32M9.54M
Investing Cash Flow-5.50M34.90M-4.85M28.52M-16.34M-248.46M
Financing Cash Flow96.14M-111.14M-34.72M-68.49M16.15M338.54M

AFC Gamma Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price2.57
Price Trends
50DMA
3.01
Negative
100DMA
2.97
Negative
200DMA
2.80
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.05
Negative
RSI
49.85
Neutral
STOCH
54.42
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AFCG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.57 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.73, below the 50-day MA of 3.01, and below the 200-day MA of 2.80, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.85 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 54.42 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AFCG.

AFC Gamma Risk Analysis

AFC Gamma disclosed 92 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. AFC Gamma reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

AFC Gamma Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
68
Neutral
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
58
Neutral
$424.96M16.275.61%5.21%-6.43%-60.28%
47
Neutral
$62.72M-4.41-7.44%9.73%-32.06%-165.35%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AFCG
AFC Gamma
2.82
-1.27
-30.97%
PW
Power REIT
7.95
-8.55
-51.82%
FPI
Farmland
9.73
-0.48
-4.72%

AFC Gamma Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
AFC Gamma Expands Revolving Credit Capacity with Amendment
Positive
Jun 30, 2026
On June 26, 2026, Advanced Flower Capital Inc. amended its Loan and Security Agreement, aligning certain reporting requirements with market standards for business development companies and setting conditions for including specific credit facilitie...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
AFC Gamma Launches Targeted Share Repurchase Program
Positive
Jun 18, 2026
Advanced Flower Capital Inc. has implemented a share repurchase program authorizing the buyback of up to $5 million of its common stock at or below $3.50 per share, with the plan expected to remain in place until the earlier of fully utilizing the...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
AFC Gamma Shareholders Back Directors and Auditor Appointments
Positive
May 28, 2026
On May 28, 2026, Advanced Flower Capital Inc. held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders, where investors in the company’s common stock voted on key governance matters. Shareholders approved the reelection of Class III directors Alexander ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 01, 2026