Tetragon Financial Group LTD (NL:TFG)
:TFG
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Tetragon Financial
(TFG)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$15.50
▼(-9.09% Downside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:03/17/26
The score is driven primarily by solid underlying financial strength (notably low leverage) but tempered by inconsistent cash generation and volatile results. Valuation is a major positive (very low P/E and decent yield), while technicals are a notable near-term negative given the downtrend and weak momentum. The earnings call adds support via strong 2025 performance and planned buybacks/deleveraging, but persistent NAV discount and credit-related losses remain key risks.
Positive Factors
Conservative Balance Sheet
Low debt-to-equity (~0.09 in 2024) and a sizable equity base give Tetragon durable financial flexibility. This conservative capital structure supports resilience through market cycles, enables buybacks or debt paydown from proceeds, and reduces solvency risk over the next several months.
Negative Factors
Inconsistent Cash Generation
TFG's operating and free cash flow have been volatile, with negative FCF in multiple years and a near-zero -0.8M in 2025. This inconsistent cash conversion constrains recurring shareholder returns and reduces the predictability of funding for buybacks, fees, and interest coverage in the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative Balance Sheet
Low debt-to-equity (~0.09 in 2024) and a sizable equity base give Tetragon durable financial flexibility. This conservative capital structure supports resilience through market cycles, enables buybacks or debt paydown from proceeds, and reduces solvency risk over the next several months.
Read all positive factors
Tetragon Financial (TFG) vs. iShares MSCI Netherlands ETF (EWN)
Market Cap
$1.06B
Dividend Yield3.22%
Average Volume (3M)18.72K
Price to Earnings (P/E)1.0
Beta (1Y)0.23
Revenue Growth97.31%
EPS Growth99.92%
CountryNL
Employees530
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)10.75
Shares Outstanding139,694,470
10 Day Avg. Volume15,312
30 Day Avg. Volume18,722
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.02
Price to Book (P/B)0.39
Price to Sales (P/S)1.47
P/FCF Ratio-4.12
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.37
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.11
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.98
Enterprise Value/Ebitda1.91
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Tetragon Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Tetragon Financial Group Limited is a close ended feeder fund launched and managed by Tetragon Financial Management LP. The fund invests its entire corpus in Tetragon Financial Group Master Fund Limited. It was formerly known as Tetragon Credit In...
How the Company Makes Money
TFG makes money primarily by earning investment returns on its portfolio and, where applicable, by earning management and performance-related fees through affiliated investment management businesses. Key economic drivers include: (1) Net investmen...
Tetragon Financial Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents strong operational and investment performance — notably a 19.6% NAV total return for 2025, ROE of 23.4%, and material gains from Equitix, Ripple and Hawke's Point — together with significant near-term cash inflows from the BGO sale enabling buybacks and debt reduction. However, the company faces material headwinds: large CLO/LCM losses and AUM declines, a negative net cash/leverage position prior to BGO proceeds, persistent and large share-price discount to NAV (~58.6%), and recurring dilution and fee/interest drags on NAV. Overall, the positives in realized and unrealized investment gains and the expected BGO proceeds are strong, but structural market sentiment (the discount) and credit-related losses remain important challenges.Positive Updates
Strong NAV and Total Return
Fully diluted NAV per share of $41.88 at 31-Dec-2025; NAV per share total return of 19.6% for 2025 and an annualized NAV per share total return of 11.2% since IPO.
Negative Updates
Large Persistent Discount to NAV
Share price $17.35 vs NAV $41.88 at year-end, implying a discount of approximately 58.6%; management notes historically limited impact of buybacks on narrowing the discount despite ~$860M of prior buybacks.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong NAV and Total Return
Fully diluted NAV per share of $41.88 at 31-Dec-2025; NAV per share total return of 19.6% for 2025 and an annualized NAV per share total return of 11.2% since IPO.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The management reiterated its forward priorities and near-term capital guidance: they will prioritize buybacks over higher recurring dividends (buybacks accretive on large discounts), plan to deploy $50m immediately to repurchase shares from the roughly $475m gross expected BGO sale proceeds (of which $155m is a one‑off amount accretive to 2025 year‑end NAV), then use remaining proceeds to pay taxes and reduce debt on a $500m revolver ( ~$350m drawn), leaving net cash positions that moved from cash $27.1m / net cash ≈ -$316.4m at year‑end to January net ≈ -$413m; longer‑term capital use will balance investments, buybacks and dividends. They reiterated performance targets and metrics as the basis for value creation and investor outreach — fully diluted NAV per share $41.88 (31‑Dec‑25), NAV per share total return 19.6% in 2025 and 11.2% annualized since IPO, ROE 23.4% in 2025 (target 10–15%, avg. since IPO 12.1%), Q4 dividend $0.12 (Q3 $0.11), FY dividend $0.45 (≈2.6% yield on $17.35 year‑end share price), prior buybacks ~$860m and dividends ~ $1bn to date, and near‑term commitments of ~$99.9m — all accompanied by a commitment to improve performance, transparency and market education to address the persistent discount.Tetragon Financial Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
86
Very Positive
Cash Flow
41
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.03B | 365.00M | 240.40M | 61.70M | 611.00M |
| Gross Profit | 778.80M | 365.00M | 240.40M | -5.90M | 448.90M |
| EBITDA | 756.90M | 377.30M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Net Income | 729.60M | 352.20M | 141.10M | -32.10M | 418.20M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 4.26B | 3.56B | 3.11B | 2.97B | 3.06B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 27.10M | 30.50M | 23.10M | 21.70M | 198.80M |
| Total Debt | 350.00M | 300.00M | 250.00M | 115.00M | 75.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 364.70M | 391.90M | 280.40M | 215.70M | 187.10M |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.89B | 3.17B | 2.83B | 2.76B | 2.88B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -367.50M | 47.10M | -26.00M | -111.00M | 64.30M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -367.50M | 47.10M | -26.00M | -111.00M | 64.30M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 339.40M | 113.60M | 119.60M | -28.60M | 164.30M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 24.70M | -39.70M | 27.40M | -66.10M | -57.10M |
Tetragon Financial Technical Analysis
Negative
17.05
Price Trends
14.35
Negative
15.72
Negative
16.86
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.06
Negative
43.54
Neutral
26.52
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NL:TFG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 17.05 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.03, above the 50-day MA of 14.35, and above the 200-day MA of 16.86, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.06 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 43.54 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.52 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NL:TFG.
Tetragon Financial Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | €15.10B | 5.57 | 11.85% | 2.07% | -0.30% | 32.04% | |
75 Outperform | €211.44M | -8.42 | 12.80% | 9.16% | 66.89% | -101.43% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | $1.06B | 1.03 | 21.90% | 3.22% | 97.31% | 99.92% | |
64 Neutral | €13.85B | 6.24 | ― | 3.13% | 18.57% | 421.31% | |
53 Neutral | €19.20B | ― | 6.47% | 5.40% | -0.97% | -25.25% | |
52 Neutral | €5.04B | -29.42 | -7.45% | 1.65% | -1.54% | ― |
* Financial Sector Average
NL:TFG
Tetragon Financial
12.70
-0.70
-5.21%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.