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Tetragon Financial Group LTD (NL:TFG)
:TFG
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Tetragon Financial
(TFG)
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Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$19.00
▲(11.44% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:12/30/25
The score is driven primarily by solid underlying financial strength (high profitability and low leverage in the financial statements) and very attractive valuation (low P/E plus dividend yield). These positives are partly offset by weaker technical momentum and cash-flow/segment volatility highlighted in both the financials and the latest earnings call.
Tetragon Financial (TFG) vs. iShares MSCI Netherlands ETF (EWN)
Market Cap
$1.17B
Dividend Yield3.22%
Average Volume (3M)18.72K
Price to Earnings (P/E)2.0
Beta (1Y)0.22
Revenue Growth328.05%
EPS Growth412.44%
CountryNL
Employees530
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.36
Shares Outstanding139,694,470
10 Day Avg. Volume15,312
30 Day Avg. Volume18,722
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.02
Price to Book (P/B)0.38
Price to Sales (P/S)3.06
P/FCF Ratio25.35
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.37
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.32
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.45
Enterprise Value/Ebitda4.80
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Tetragon Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionTetragon Financial Group Limited is a close ended feeder fund launched and managed by Tetragon Financial Management LP. The fund invests its entire corpus in Tetragon Financial Group Master Fund Limited. It was formerly known as Tetragon Credit Income Fund Limited. Tetragon Financial Group Limited was formed on June 23, 2005 and is domiciled in the Guernsey, Channel Islands.
How the Company Makes MoneyTetragon Financial Group makes money through a combination of capital appreciation and income generation from its diversified investment portfolio. The company earns revenue primarily from dividends, interest, and capital gains on its investments in public and private equities, loans, real estate, and infrastructure. TFG also benefits from management and performance fees generated by its asset management operations, where it manages funds and investment vehicles for institutional and retail clients. Significant partnerships with financial institutions and strategic investments in asset management businesses, such as TFG Asset Management, enhance its earning potential and contribute to its overall financial performance.
Tetragon Financial Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects a strong performance in key metrics such as NAV growth and ROE, driven by substantial gains in investments like Equitix and private equity. However, challenges persist in segments like real estate and bank loans, along with a high leverage position. The positive aspects, especially the gains from strategic investments, largely outweigh the negatives, indicating a robust financial outlook.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong NAV Per Share Growth
Tetragon achieved a fully diluted NAV per share of $38.74 as at June 30, 2025, representing a NAV per share total return of 10% for the first half of 2025. Since its IPO, Tetragon has achieved an annualized NAV per share total return of 11%.
Impressive ROE Performance
The return on equity (ROE) for the first half of 2025 was a positive 12.2%, significantly above the target range of 5% to 7.5% for a 6-month period.
Significant Gains from Equitix
Tetragon's investment in Equitix generated a profit of $409 million during the first half of 2025, driven by a higher valuation and foreign exchange gains.
Beneficial Transaction with Hunter Point Capital
Hunter Point Capital acquired a 16.1% stake in Equitix, implying an enterprise value of GBP 1.3 billion for the business. Tetragon will continue to hold a 66.4% stake post-transaction.
Positive Performance in Private Equity and Venture Capital
Gains of $189 million were generated in this segment, driven by investments in Ripple Labs and an Australian gold mining company.
Negative Updates
Losses in Bank Loans and CLOs
There was a loss of $24 million in bank loan investments, primarily held through CLOs, due to realized and unrealized losses in older vintage loan exposures.
Challenges in Real Estate Investments
The real estate segment recorded a net loss of $8.5 million, with continued losses stemming from U.S.-focused funds due to exposure to commercial, residential, and hotel sectors.
Reduction in LCM AUM
LCM's assets under management decreased by 12% to $7.7 billion due to amortization of existing deals, resulting in a loss of $35.3 million.
High Level of Leverage
Tetragon's net cash position at the end of the first half was negative $546 million, indicating a significant level of leverage.
Company Guidance
The guidance provided during the Tetragon 2025 Half Yearly Investor Call was comprehensive, focusing on several key financial metrics. The company reported a fully diluted NAV per share of $38.74 as of June 30, 2025, with a NAV per share total return of 10% for the first half of the year. Since its IPO in 2007, Tetragon has achieved an annualized NAV per share total return of 11%. The return on equity (ROE) for the first half of 2025 was 12.2%, exceeding the target range of 5% to 7.5% for a six-month period. The average annual ROE since the IPO is 11.8%, within the target range of 10% to 15%. Tetragon declared a dividend of $0.11 for the second quarter, totaling $0.22 year-to-date, with the last four quarters' dividend representing a yield of approximately 2.7% based on a quarter-end share price of $16.15. The NAV bridge highlighted an increase in NAV per share from $35.43 to $38.74, driven by investment income and offset by operating expenses and fees. The investment in Equitix yielded a $409 million profit, contributing significantly to these results.Tetragon Financial Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Strong profitability and a conservative balance sheet (low leverage, improving ROE) support the score, but revenue volatility and uneven earnings-to-cash conversion (OCF covering only about half of 2024 net income, softer FCF) reduce confidence in durability.Income Statement
Profitability is a clear strength, with very high margins in 2024 (net margin ~68%, EBIT margin ~72%) and a strong rebound from 2022 losses to sizable profits in 2023–2024. However, revenue has been volatile (down ~5% in 2024 after a strong 2023), which is a key risk for earnings durability.72
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet looks conservative: leverage is low with debt-to-equity around ~0.09 in 2024 and equity representing the bulk of the capital base. Returns on equity improved meaningfully in 2024 (~11%) after weaker 2022–2023 levels, though the prior-year drawdown (negative 2022 ROE) highlights that book value and returns can fluctuate.86
Very Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is mixed and less consistent than reported earnings. Operating cash flow turned positive in 2024 (€47.1M) after being negative in 2022–2023, but it still covered only about half of net income in 2024, suggesting earnings-to-cash conversion can be uneven. Free cash flow also declined in 2024 (down ~15%), reinforcing the volatility.55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.21B | 390.40M | 240.40M | 61.70M | 447.50M | 306.40M |
| Gross Profit | 1.10B | 365.00M | 182.40M | -5.90M | 441.70M | 199.30M |
| EBITDA | 333.90M | 352.20M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 418.20M | 0.00 |
| Net Income | 857.45M | 352.20M | 141.10M | -32.10M | 418.20M | 171.10M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 4.15B | 3.56B | 3.11B | 2.97B | 3.06B | 2.67B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 3.00M | 30.50M | 23.10M | 21.70M | 198.80M | 191.60M |
| Total Debt | 350.00M | 300.00M | 250.00M | 115.00M | 75.00M | 100.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 606.50M | 391.90M | 280.40M | 215.70M | 187.10M | 194.11M |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.55B | 3.17B | 2.83B | 2.76B | 2.88B | 2.47B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -93.00M | 47.10M | -26.00M | -111.00M | 64.30M | 208.50M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -93.00M | 47.10M | -26.00M | -111.00M | 64.30M | 208.50M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 120.30M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Financing Cash Flow | -19.55M | -39.70M | 27.40M | -66.10M | -57.10M | -150.40M |
Tetragon Financial Technical Analysis
Negative
17.05
Price Trends
16.06
Negative
17.35
Negative
17.11
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.49
Positive
25.37
Positive
22.22
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NL:TFG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 17.05 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.01, above the 50-day MA of 16.06, and below the 200-day MA of 17.11, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.49 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 25.37 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.22 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NL:TFG.
Tetragon Financial Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | €15.59B | 2.67 | 11.85% | 2.07% | 2.01% | 79.48% | |
75 Outperform | €225.34M | 9.56 | 13.24% | 9.16% | -42.89% | -21.25% | |
73 Outperform | $1.17B | 2.00 | 21.90% | 3.22% | 328.05% | 412.44% | |
68 Neutral | €16.94B | 15.76 | 6.47% | 5.40% | -15.54% | 10.53% | |
68 Neutral | €12.54B | 27.77 | ― | 3.13% | 20.37% | 54.24% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
62 Neutral | €5.06B | 22.81 | -7.45% | 1.65% | 8.64% | -304.46% |
* Financial Sector Average
NL:TFG
Tetragon Financial
14.10
-1.07
-7.08%
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NL:NN
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67.26
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6.18
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NL:ALLFG
Allfunds Group plc
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NL:CVC
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-37.55%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.