Royal KPN NV (KPN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €18.32B
• Dividend Yield: 4.43%
• Average Volume (3M): 8.30M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 21.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.04
• Revenue Growth: 3.75%
• EPS Growth: 0.28%
• Country: NL
• Employees: 9,718
• Sector: Communication Services
• Sector Strength: 97
• Industry: Telecommunications Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.06
• Shares Outstanding: 3,827,465,300
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 7,730,284
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 8,297,447
• PEG Ratio: 0.00
• Price to Book (P/B): 6.55
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.84
• P/FCF Ratio: 12.81
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €4.46
• Price Target Upside: -6.89% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.25
• Revenue Forecast (FY): €5.91B

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: €5.00 ▲(4.38% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/28/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/28/26

The score is driven primarily by solid but leverage-constrained financial performance, complemented by strong technical momentum (price above key moving averages and positive MACD). Valuation is mixed: a decent dividend yield is offset by a higher P/E for a mature telecom business.

Positive Factors

Market position & diversified revenue

KPN's leading domestic telecom position and diversified revenue mix (mobile, fixed broadband, TV, and IT services) create durable recurring cashflows and cross-sell opportunities. This broad customer base and bundled offerings support revenue stability and competitive resilience over months.

Steady revenue growth and solid margins

Consistent low-single-digit top-line growth and mid-teens net margins reflect a mature, cash-generative business model. Improved operating profitability (notably stronger 2025 EBIT margin) indicates structural cost and efficiency advantages that support durable earnings and free cash generation.

Reliable cash generation and improved FCF

Steady operating cash flow and a meaningful jump in 2025 free cash flow strengthen the firm's ability to fund dividends, capex and strategic investments. Predictable OCF underpins medium-term financial flexibility and supports reinvestment without immediate external financing.

Negative Factors

Rising leverage weakens balance sheet

A sharp increase in leverage and declining equity reduce financial flexibility and elevate refinancing and interest-rate risks. Higher debt levels mean weaker capacity to absorb adverse shocks and constrain strategic optionality like large capex or accelerated deleveraging if cash flows deteriorate.

Earnings and margin volatility

Significant year-to-year swings in gross and net margins indicate earnings quality variability and potential one-offs or cyclical pressures. That volatility complicates reliable forecasting and capital-allocation decisions and increases execution risk over the medium term.

Inconsistent cash conversion

While FCF improved, operating cash flow has not consistently covered net income in all years, signalling variable cash conversion. This limits the firm's steady ability to pay down debt or boost investment without relying on financing, raising structural liquidity risk.

Royal KPN NV Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Koninklijke KPN N.V. provides telecommunications and information technology (IT) services in the Netherlands. It operates through Consumer; Business; Wholesale; and Network, Operations & IT segments. The company offers fixed and mobile telephony, fixed and mobile broadband internet, and television services to retail consumers; infrastructure and network related IT solutions to business customers; and wholesale network services to third parties. It also provides IT services, includes cloud and workspace, and cybersecurity; and interconnect traffic, visitor roaming, digital products, and NL-ix, an interconnect exchange, as well as sells handsets and peripheral equipment, and software licenses. The company was founded in 1881 and is headquartered in Rotterdam, the Netherlands.

How the Company Makes Money

KPN generates revenue primarily through its telecommunications services, which include mobile and fixed-line subscriptions, broadband internet services, and digital television offerings. The company's revenue model is diversified, with key streams coming from both consumer and business segments. Mobile services, including postpaid and prepaid subscriptions, represent a significant portion of KPN's earnings. The company also earns revenue from providing IT services and solutions to businesses, including cloud services, data management, and cybersecurity solutions. Additionally, KPN engages in partnerships with various content providers and technology firms, enhancing its service offerings and driving additional income through bundled services and promotions. Factors such as increasing demand for high-speed internet, a growing customer base, and strategic investments in network infrastructure contribute positively to KPN's earnings.

Royal KPN NV Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Stable, mature telecom fundamentals with modest revenue growth and generally healthy profitability, supported by steady operating cash flow and improved 2025 free cash flow. The key offset is rising leverage in 2025 (higher debt and lower equity), which reduces financial flexibility and raises risk.

Income Statement

Revenue shows steady, low-single-digit growth from 2022–2025 (2025: ~5.83B vs. 2022: ~5.31B), consistent with a mature telecom profile. Profitability is generally solid with net margins in the mid-teens in recent years (2025: ~14.7%), and operating profitability improved versus 2022–2024 (2025 EBIT margin ~47.5%). Key weakness is volatility across periods (notably 2021’s unusually high margin set and 2024’s very high gross margin), which suggests earnings quality and comparability can swing year to year.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is the main constraint: debt-to-equity rose materially to ~3.38 in 2025 (from ~2.01 in 2024 and ~1.72 in 2022), indicating increasing reliance on debt financing. Equity declined in 2025 while debt increased, reducing balance-sheet flexibility. A positive offset is strong returns on equity (2025 ~33.8%), but those returns are occurring alongside higher leverage, which raises risk if operating conditions soften.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is steady and supportive: operating cash flow increased gradually (2022 ~2.19B to 2025 ~2.31B) and free cash flow improved meaningfully in 2025 (~1.29B) with strong growth versus 2024. However, free cash flow remains a moderate share of earnings (2025 free cash flow to net income ~0.56), and coverage of net income by operating cash flow is not consistently strong across years (below 1x in 2024), pointing to some variability in cash conversion.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.83B	5.60B	5.44B	5.31B	5.27B
Gross Profit	3.11B	4.09B	2.92B	2.84B	1.35B
EBITDA	2.77B	2.60B	2.56B	2.50B	3.29B
Net Income	855.00M	848.00M	844.00M	760.00M	1.29B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	13.07B	12.55B	12.25B	11.96B	12.74B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	587.00M	802.00M	828.00M	527.00M	1.11B
Total Debt	8.55B	7.10B	6.79B	6.29B	7.62B
Total Liabilities	10.50B	9.01B	8.69B	8.31B	9.51B
Stockholders Equity	2.53B	3.53B	3.56B	3.65B	3.23B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.29B	950.00M	993.00M	982.00M	908.00M
Operating Cash Flow	2.31B	2.26B	2.24B	2.19B	2.13B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.39B	-1.44B	-1.43B	-1.08B	-1.21B
Financing Cash Flow	-1.18B	-769.00M	-606.00M	-1.50B	-717.00M

Royal KPN NV Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 4.79
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NL:KPN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4.79 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.61, above the 50-day MA of 4.20, and above the 200-day MA of 4.07, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.17 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 72.90 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 78.75 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NL:KPN.

Royal KPN NV Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
KPN	66 Neutral	€18.32B	21.61	34.21%	4.43%	3.75%	0.28%
Sector *	60 Neutral	$48.67B	4.58	-11.27%	4.14%	2.83%	-41.78%
PNL	50 Neutral	€582.44M	-33.48	-12.23%	6.72%	2.44%	-179.02%