JDE Peet's NV (JDEP) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €15.50B
• Dividend Yield: 2.27%
• Average Volume (3M): 844.15K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 19.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.16
• Revenue Growth: 14.96%
• EPS Growth: 16.05%
• Country: NL
• Employees: 20,820
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Packaged Foods
• EPS (TTM): 0.78
• Shares Outstanding: 488,178,650
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 859,086
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 844,150
• PEG Ratio: 0.46
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.38
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.56
• P/FCF Ratio: 14.23
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €31.43
• Price Target Upside: -0.85% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.86
• Revenue Forecast (FY): €10.35B

• Rating: 65 Neutral
• Price Target: €34.00 ▲(7.26% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 02/26/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 02/26/26

The score is driven primarily by stable financial footing with solid free cash flow and manageable leverage, offset by margin compression and cash-flow volatility. Technicals are moderately supportive, while valuation is neutral-to-slightly supportive and the earnings call adds a modest positive tilt due to raised guidance, tempered by ongoing commodity-cost pressure and weaker performance in certain segments.

Positive Factors

Brand-led portfolio

A focused, multi-brand strategy centered on Peet’s, L’OR and Jacobs provides durable competitive advantages: strong brand equity supports pricing power, broad channel placement (at-home and out-of-home), and product innovation. This portfolio depth helps sustain revenue and margins across markets over the medium term.

Consistent free cash generation

Sustained free cash flow at scale gives the company flexibility to fund capex, invest in brands and return capital to shareholders. Over 2–6 months this supports strategic investment, deleveraging optionality and predictable capacity to finance product development and channel expansion without diluting equity.

Manageable leverage

A moderate leverage profile and stable equity base support financial flexibility and resilience to cyclical shocks. With debt not rising meaningfully, the balance sheet enables continued investment in brands and operations while maintaining capacity to absorb working-capital swings or incremental strategic M&A in the medium term.

Negative Factors

Gross-margin compression

Material decline in gross margin reflects sustained cost and pricing pressure; this reduces margin headroom for reinvestment and leaves less buffer against future commodity spikes. Persistently lower gross margins will constrain operating profitability and long-run cash generation if cost pass-through is incomplete.

Elevated green-coffee costs

A >60% jump in a primary input is a structural supply-cost risk that can persist or recur seasonally. It forces repeated pricing negotiations, pressures volumes and margins, and raises working-capital needs. Unless hedging or sourcing offsets improve, earnings volatility and margin squeeze are likely to persist over several quarters.

Segment profitability weakness

Large organic EBIT declines in Peet’s and APAC point to uneven execution and sensitivity to local inflation/price dynamics. Structural underperformance in key brands/regions complicates group margin recovery and requires targeted product, price and operational fixes to restore durable profitability across all channels.

JDE Peet's NV Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

JDE Peet's N.V., together with its subsidiaries, provides various coffee and tea products and solutions to serve consumer needs worldwide. The company operates through CPG Europe, CPG LARMEA, CPG APAC, Out-of-Home, and Peet's segments. It offers multi-serve coffee, and single-serve and double-shot coffee capsules; and pads and pods, instant coffee, whole beans, ready-to-drink coffee beverages, various leaf and packaged tea, and professional tea products, as well as rents or sells professional solutions and complementary coffee systems. The company sells its products under the Douwe Egberts, Kenco, Peet's, L'OR, Stumptown, TiOra, Gevalia, Pickwick, PILAO, Intelligentsia, Senseo, Jacobs, Moccona, Super, OldTown, Ofçay, Mighty Leaf Tea, and Tassimo brands through CPG and out-of-home sales channels. It operates 505 coffee stores under the Peet's, Intelligentsia, Stumptown, OldTown, and 12Oz brands in the United States, China, Malaysia, and Italy, as well as through webshops, and third-party e-tailers and e-commerce marketplaces. The company serves various businesses, such as hotels, hospitals, restaurants, cruise liners, and retirement homes, as well as distributors for distribution to the customer; and offices, universities, airports, and sports venues. JDE Peet's N.V. was incorporated in 2018 and is headquartered in Amsterdam, the Netherlands.

How the Company Makes Money

JDE Peet's generates revenue through various channels, primarily by selling coffee and tea products across multiple markets. The company operates through retail and out-of-home segments, which include supermarkets, convenience stores, and coffee shops. Key revenue streams include the sale of packaged coffee and tea products, single-serve coffee pods, and ready-to-drink beverages. Additionally, JDE Peet's benefits from partnerships with retailers and distributors, enhancing its market reach. The company also engages in strategic initiatives such as product innovation and sustainability efforts, which contribute to customer loyalty and brand strength, further driving sales and profitability.

JDE Peet's NV Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Steady revenue growth and a generally manageable leverage profile support the score, but it is held back by notable gross-margin compression versus prior years and recent free-cash-flow volatility despite still-strong absolute FCF.

Income Statement

Revenue has grown steadily from 2020 to 2025 (2025 up 2.6% year over year), showing a resilient top line. However, profitability has weakened versus earlier years: gross margin declined to ~31% in 2025 from ~37% in 2023–2024 and ~43% in 2020–2021, and operating profitability also stepped down versus 2024. Net margin improved in 2025 (~8.0%) versus 2023–2024, but remains below the stronger 2021–2022 levels, indicating mixed earnings quality and some cost/price pressure.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks manageable for the sector, with debt-to-equity around ~0.49 in 2025 and fairly stable equity over time (~€11.2B). Total debt is elevated in absolute terms (~€5.5B) but has not been rising meaningfully recently, which supports balance-sheet stability. Return on equity improved to ~7.1% in 2025 from ~5.1% in 2024, though it is still not consistently strong across the full period (notably weaker in 2020 and 2023).

Cash Flow

Cash generation is solid with 2025 operating cash flow of ~€1.37B and free cash flow of ~€1.09B, and free cash flow remains a healthy portion of earnings (about 0.79x net income in 2025). The key concern is volatility: free cash flow declined ~17.8% in 2025 after a strong multi-year rebound from 2023, suggesting working-capital swings and/or higher investment needs. Operating cash flow relative to debt is modest (about 20% in 2025), which is adequate but not especially conservative given the debt load.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	9.92B	8.84B	8.19B	8.15B	7.00B
Gross Profit	3.10B	3.26B	3.02B	3.00B	2.97B
EBITDA	1.20B	1.42B	1.04B	1.51B	1.51B
Net Income	796.00M	561.00M	367.00M	771.00M	765.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	24.13B	24.04B	23.14B	22.63B	21.62B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.81B	1.26B	2.05B	967.00M	662.00M
Total Debt	5.50B	5.57B	5.92B	4.97B	4.88B
Total Liabilities	12.90B	12.90B	12.03B	11.49B	10.46B
Stockholders Equity	11.19B	11.09B	11.04B	11.05B	11.02B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.09B	1.04B	522.00M	1.36B	1.37B
Operating Cash Flow	1.37B	1.37B	823.00M	1.61B	1.62B
Investing Cash Flow	-298.00M	-1.18B	-226.00M	-293.00M	-293.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-482.00M	-979.00M	491.00M	-1.02B	-1.11B

JDE Peet's NV Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 31.70
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NL:JDEP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 31.7 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 31.69, above the 50-day MA of 31.62, and above the 200-day MA of 28.95, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 53.40 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.00 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NL:JDEP.

JDE Peet's NV Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AD	72 Outperform	€35.14B	13.99	14.64%	3.42%	3.41%	16.39%
JDEP	65 Neutral	€15.50B	19.43	―	2.27%	14.96%	16.05%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
SLIGR	54 Neutral	€608.06M	14.85	5.83%	5.12%	-2.70%	576.55%