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JDE Peet's NV (NL:JDEP)
:JDEP
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JDE Peet's NV
(JDEP)
Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
€34.00
▲(8.83% Upside)
Positive Factors
Acquisition
The acquisition of JDEP by Keurig Dr Pepper is valued at €31.85 per share, offering a significant premium over the recent average share price.
Financial Performance
Free cash flow was significantly higher than consensus estimates.
Operational Efficiency
The acquisition is expected to result in $400 million of cost synergies from the integration of JDEP, enhancing operational efficiencies.
Negative Factors
Capital Allocation
Years of sub-optimal capital allocation and margin pressure have been noted.
Consumer Demand
Key uncertainties remain in consumer demand elasticity towards further price increases.
Price Target
The price target is lowered to €25, reflecting contained margin expansion in the medium term as the company is expected to prioritize reinvesting in brands.
JDE Peet's NV (JDEP) vs. iShares MSCI Netherlands ETF (EWN)
Market Cap
€15.25B
Dividend Yield2.3%
Average Volume (3M)710.11K
Price to Earnings (P/E)24.6
Beta (1Y)0.12
Revenue Growth14.96%
EPS Growth16.05%
CountryNL
Employees20,820
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength49
IndustryPackaged Foods
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.33
Shares Outstanding488,178,650
10 Day Avg. Volume1,361,796
30 Day Avg. Volume710,105
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)N/A
P/FCF RatioN/A
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
€27.03Price Target Upside-13.48% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering8
JDE Peet's NV Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionJDE Peet's N.V., together with its subsidiaries, provides various coffee and tea products and solutions to serve consumer needs worldwide. The company operates through CPG Europe, CPG LARMEA, CPG APAC, Out-of-Home, and Peet's segments. It offers multi-serve coffee, and single-serve and double-shot coffee capsules; and pads and pods, instant coffee, whole beans, ready-to-drink coffee beverages, various leaf and packaged tea, and professional tea products, as well as rents or sells professional solutions and complementary coffee systems. The company sells its products under the Douwe Egberts, Kenco, Peet's, L'OR, Stumptown, TiOra, Gevalia, Pickwick, PILAO, Intelligentsia, Senseo, Jacobs, Moccona, Super, OldTown, Ofçay, Mighty Leaf Tea, and Tassimo brands through CPG and out-of-home sales channels. It operates 505 coffee stores under the Peet's, Intelligentsia, Stumptown, OldTown, and 12Oz brands in the United States, China, Malaysia, and Italy, as well as through webshops, and third-party e-tailers and e-commerce marketplaces. The company serves various businesses, such as hotels, hospitals, restaurants, cruise liners, and retirement homes, as well as distributors for distribution to the customer; and offices, universities, airports, and sports venues. JDE Peet's N.V. was incorporated in 2018 and is headquartered in Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
How the Company Makes MoneyJDE Peet's NV generates revenue primarily through the sale of coffee and tea products across various channels, including retail stores, online platforms, and through out-of-home services like cafes and restaurants. The company's diverse portfolio of well-established brands allows it to capture a broad market segment and cater to different consumer tastes and preferences. JDE Peet's also capitalizes on strategic partnerships and distribution agreements, enhancing its market reach and brand presence globally. Additionally, the company invests in product innovation and sustainability initiatives to maintain a competitive edge and support long-term growth in the competitive beverage industry.
JDE Peet's NV Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call detailed strong sales growth and effective cash flow management, alongside robust shareholder returns. However, significant challenges remain due to high inflation and green coffee prices, impacting segments like Peet's and APAC. The company is actively managing these pressures through strategic initiatives and pricing adjustments.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Organic Sales Growth
Organic sales increased by 22.5%, driven primarily by pricing of 21.5% with a resilient volume mix growth of 1%.
Solid Free Cash Flow
Free cash flow was reported at EUR 565 million, indicating strong cash-generating capabilities.
Shareholder Returns
43% of free cash flow was returned to shareholders, including EUR 172 million through dividends and EUR 71 million through share buybacks.
Successful Inflation Mitigation
The company managed to offset significant inflationary pressures with efficiencies and pricing strategies, maintaining gross profit levels.
Positive Employee Engagement
The annual Gallup employee engagement survey score improved to 4.12, with a 91% participation rate.
Negative Updates
Challenges in Peet's Segment
Peet's adjusted EBIT decreased organically by 37.6% due to high inflation and pricing challenges.
Impact of Green Coffee Prices
Green coffee prices have increased by over 60% compared to the previous year, contributing to significant cost pressures.
APAC EBIT Decline
Adjusted EBIT for APAC decreased organically by 14.7% due to phasing of productivities and interplay of inflation and pricing.
Continued Pricing Pressures
Ongoing negotiations for price increases needed to mitigate inflation, with some short-term volume pressure expected.
Company Guidance
During the JDE Peet's Half Year 2025 Earnings Call, the company provided a comprehensive update on its financial performance and strategic priorities. For the first half of 2025, JDE Peet's reported a 22.5% increase in organic sales, a 2.2% rise in adjusted gross profit, and a 2% growth in adjusted EBIT. The company generated a solid free cash flow of EUR 565 million, which allowed it to return 43% to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks. Despite challenges such as high green coffee prices, JDE Peet's maintained its profitability by implementing efficient pricing strategies and productivity measures. The company raised its full-year guidance, expecting high teens organic sales growth and at least stable adjusted EBIT, while maintaining a free cash flow target of around EUR 1 billion. Additionally, JDE Peet's highlighted its focus on a brand-led strategy, emphasizing its three big bets—Peet’s, L’OR, and Jacobs—while continuing to invest in new product development and operational efficiencies.JDE Peet's NV Financial Statement Overview
Summary
JDE Peet's NV demonstrates strong revenue growth and profitability, with effective debt management and robust cash flow generation. However, improvements in net income growth and ROE could further enhance financial performance.Income Statement
JDE Peet's NV has demonstrated consistent revenue growth, with a notable increase of 7.9% from 2023 to 2024. The company maintains a solid gross profit margin of 36.8% and a healthy net profit margin of 6.3% for 2024. EBIT and EBITDA margins are strong at 11.9% and 16.0%, respectively, indicating operational efficiency. Overall, the income statement reflects a positive growth trajectory and profitability, though net income growth could improve further.75
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet shows a strong equity position with an equity ratio of 46.7%. The company has improved its financial leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio dropping to zero in 2024, showcasing effective debt management. Return on equity is moderate at 5.1%. While the balance sheet indicates stability, further enhancement of ROE would be beneficial.70
Positive
Cash Flow
JDE Peet's NV exhibits robust cash flow management with a significant increase in free cash flow by 100% from 2023 to 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 2.45, suggesting efficient conversion of earnings into cash. Free cash flow to net income ratio is impressive at 1.86, indicating strong cash generation relative to profits.80
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 8.84B | 8.19B | 8.15B | 7.00B | 6.65B |
| Gross Profit | 3.26B | 3.02B | 3.00B | 2.97B | 2.83B |
| EBITDA | 1.42B | 1.04B | 1.51B | 1.51B | 1.32B |
| Net Income | 561.00M | 367.00M | 771.00M | 765.00M | 308.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 24.04B | 23.14B | 22.63B | 21.62B | 20.74B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.26B | 2.05B | 967.00M | 662.00M | 414.00M |
| Total Debt | 5.57B | 5.92B | 4.97B | 4.88B | 5.48B |
| Total Liabilities | 12.90B | 12.03B | 11.49B | 10.46B | 10.40B |
| Stockholders Equity | 11.09B | 11.04B | 11.05B | 11.02B | 10.20B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.04B | 522.00M | 1.36B | 1.37B | 877.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.37B | 823.00M | 1.61B | 1.62B | 1.13B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.18B | -226.00M | -293.00M | -293.00M | -230.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -979.00M | 491.00M | -1.02B | -1.11B | -1.22B |
JDE Peet's NV Technical Analysis
Positive
31.24
Price Trends
25.50
Positive
23.78
Positive
20.62
Positive
Market Momentum
1.64
Negative
84.90
Negative
98.84
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NL:JDEP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 31.24 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 27.43, above the 50-day MA of 25.50, and above the 200-day MA of 20.62, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.64 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 84.90 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 98.84 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NL:JDEP.
JDE Peet's NV Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Performance Comparison
NL:JDEP
JDE Peet's NV
31.24
11.22
56.04%
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34.07
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Sligro Food Group NV
10.92
-1.70
-13.47%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.