ING GROEP (INGA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €69.82B
• Dividend Yield: 5.1%
• Average Volume (3M): 7.88M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.90
• Revenue Growth: 0.12%
• EPS Growth: -2.71%
• Country: NL
• Employees: 60,000
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Diversified
• EPS (TTM): 0.48
• Shares Outstanding: 2,920,349,400
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 7,561,458
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 7,883,815
• PEG Ratio: 1.72
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.41
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.11
• P/FCF Ratio: -375.16
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €28.29
• Price Target Upside: 14.86% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.33
• Revenue Forecast (FY): €24.01B

• Rating: 60 Neutral
• Price Target: €26.00 ▲(5.56% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/01/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/01/26

The score is primarily driven by financial performance: strong profitability is offset by high leverage and highly volatile cash flow and revenue. Valuation is supportive with a low P/E and high dividend yield, while technical indicators are largely neutral and do not meaningfully add momentum support.

Positive Factors

Sustained profitability

ING's net profit margins in the high‑20% range and low‑to‑mid‑teens ROE indicate durable earnings power. Strong core banking profitability supports long‑term cash generation, underwriting capacity and shareholder returns, even if top‑line timing varies.

Income diversification & fee growth

A 15% increase in fee income and strong lending and NII growth reflect a shift toward a broader revenue mix. Higher fee contribution and volume growth reduce sensitivity to pure interest‑rate swings and support more resilient medium‑term revenue streams.

Solid capital buffer

A CET1 ratio of 13.1% provides a meaningful regulatory cushion, enabling continued lending, capital returns and strategic flexibility. Strong capitalization helps absorb shocks and supports sustained execution of growth initiatives.

Negative Factors

Elevated leverage profile

ING's consistently high leverage amplifies sensitivity to funding cost increases and credit cycles. Elevated debt levels can constrain strategic flexibility, increase refinancing risk in stress periods, and make earnings more cyclically exposed.

Volatile cash flow conversion

Large year‑to‑year swings in operating and free cash flow, including multiple deeply negative years, reduce confidence in internal funding for dividends, buybacks or balance‑sheet strengthening and raise reliance on external financing.

Revenue volatility / recent decline

A pronounced revenue swing culminating in a large 2025 decline undermines predictability. Even with strong margins, unstable top‑line trends complicate planning, weaken visibility on sustainable growth drivers and increase forecasting risk.

ING GROEP Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

ING Groep N.V., a financial institution, provides various banking products and services in the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, Poland, Rest of Europe, North America, Latin America, Asia, and Australia. It operates in six segments: Retail Netherlands, Retail Belgium, Retail Germany, Retail Other, Wholesale Banking, and Corporate Line Banking. The company accepts various deposits, such as current and savings accounts; and offers business lending products, as well as consumer lending products, such as residential mortgage loans, term loans, and revolver and personal loans. It also provides debt capital market, working capital, export finance, daily banking, treasury and risk, and corporate finance solutions; and specialized lending, equity market, finance, payments and cash management, and trade services and solutions, as well as savings, investment, insurance, mortgage, and digital banking services. The company serves customers, corporate clients, and financial institutions, including small and medium-sized, and mid-corporates. ING Groep N.V. was founded in 1762 and is headquartered in Amsterdam, the Netherlands.

How the Company Makes Money

ING Groep generates revenue through multiple key streams. The primary source of income comes from net interest income, which is derived from the difference between the interest earned on loans and the interest paid on deposits. Additionally, ING earns fees and commissions from various banking services, including transaction fees, asset management, and advisory services. The company also generates income through trading and investment activities in financial markets. Significant partnerships with fintech companies and strategic alliances enhance ING's service offerings and customer reach, contributing positively to its earnings. Moreover, the bank’s focus on digital banking initiatives increases efficiency and customer engagement, further bolstering its revenue potential.

ING GROEP Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong profitability and healthy returns on equity support the score, but it is weighed down by a sharp revenue decline in 2025, consistently high leverage typical of banks, and highly volatile operating/free cash flow with multiple deeply negative years.

Income Statement

Profitability is a clear strength, with consistently strong earnings power: net profit margins remained solid in 2024–2025 (about the high‑20% range) and were exceptionally high in 2023. However, results are not very stable: revenue swung sharply, including a very large decline in 2025, following a much stronger 2022 and a flatter 2023–2024. Overall, the company shows strong profit generation, but with meaningful volatility in the top line.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects typical bank leverage, but it is still elevated: debt relative to equity is high across the period and rose notably in 2024 before improving in 2025. Returns on shareholders’ equity are healthy (roughly low‑to‑mid teens in recent years), supporting the quality of earnings. The main weakness is the consistently high leverage profile, which can amplify sensitivity to funding costs and credit cycles.

Cash Flow

Cash flow quality is the weakest area due to large year-to-year swings. Operating cash flow and free cash flow were deeply negative in several years (2021, 2022, and especially 2024), improved to positive in 2023, and then weakened again in 2025 with slightly negative free cash flow. This volatility reduces confidence in cash conversion and creates uncertainty around internally funded dividends, buybacks, or balance-sheet flexibility.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	41.21B	23.04B	22.62B	17.63B	33.61B	25.78B
Gross Profit	39.96B	21.73B	20.05B	17.63B	17.06B	19.51B
EBITDA	8.93B	9.15B	9.97B	11.17B	6.21B	7.84B
Net Income	6.17B	6.33B	6.39B	7.29B	3.67B	4.78B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.09T	1.05T	1.02T	975.58B	967.82B	951.29B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	123.94B	106.31B	115.13B	130.06B	118.60B	137.80B
Total Debt	167.58B	169.33B	227.63B	173.26B	119.50B	116.01B
Total Liabilities	1.04T	1.00T	969.24B	923.40B	917.41B	896.63B
Stockholders Equity	52.29B	50.95B	50.31B	51.24B	49.91B	53.92B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	-191.00M	-56.15B	4.83B	-11.34B	-15.13B
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	160.00M	-55.82B	5.07B	-11.11B	-14.94B
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-69.58B	-6.03B	-1.67B	-5.31B	6.22B
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	55.59B	38.65B	-4.89B	4.65B	5.39B

ING GROEP Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 24.63
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NL:INGA, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 24.63 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 25.03, above the 50-day MA of 24.60, and above the 200-day MA of 21.43, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.05 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.33 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 59.19 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for NL:INGA.

ING GROEP Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
HAL	81 Outperform	€16.10B	9.34	11.85%	2.07%	2.01%	79.48%
ABN	74 Outperform	€23.35B	10.45	9.85%	4.36%	-12.70%	-12.34%
NN	68 Neutral	€17.45B	16.62	6.47%	5.40%	-15.54%	10.53%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
ASRNL	66 Neutral	€12.73B	24.91	12.65%	5.32%	16.35%	67.44%
AGN	61 Neutral	€9.62B	7.72	14.93%	5.79%	-6.64%	―
INGA	60 Neutral	€69.82B	11.64	12.05%	5.10%	0.12%	-2.71%