Aegon NV (AGN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €9.38B
• Dividend Yield: 5.31%
• Average Volume (3M): 5.56M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 14.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.99
• Revenue Growth: -5.08%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: NL
• Employees: 15,582
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 73
• Industry: Insurance - Diversified
• EPS (TTM): 0.44
• Shares Outstanding: 1,652,797,500
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 5,289,938
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 5,562,270
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.38
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 11.25
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €6.79
• Price Target Upside: 12.60% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

• Rating: 61 Neutral
• Price Target: ―

Aegon NV's overall score reflects its mixed financial performance, with strengths in profitability and cash flow stability but weaknesses in revenue consistency and high leverage. The stock's technical indicators suggest potential medium-term strength despite short-term weakness. Its valuation is attractive, offering a reasonable P/E ratio and a strong dividend yield. Overall, the stock shows moderate potential with some risks associated with financial resilience and market momentum.

Positive Factors

Capital Generation

Aegon's capital generation target reiterated is reassuring, with underlying OCG for 1Q expected at €320m, better than previous quarters.

Capital Return

AGN’s capital / cash positions are strong, giving ample visibility that the group would be able to return nearly 40% of its market cap over 2025-27 via dividends and buybacks.

Financial Strategy

Management reaffirmed its ambition to lower the group's holding cash buffer to €1bn by end-2026, indicating a strategic focus on financial stability.

Negative Factors

Business Challenges

New business figures show US protection sales are in-line with trends, but mid-market retirement flows struggle, reflecting ongoing challenges.

Financial Performance

Aegon reported an RBC ratio of 436%, missing consensus due to unforeseen impacts from Transamerica and Universal Life policies.

Stock Buyback

The new buyback of €200m is below analyst's forecast, leading to concerns that Aegon might pursue M&A with the excess capital.

Aegon NV Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Aegon N.V. is a multinational life insurance, pensions, and asset management company headquartered in The Hague, Netherlands. Founded in 1983, Aegon operates in multiple countries across Europe, the Americas, and Asia, providing a range of financial services including life insurance, pension plans, savings accounts, and investment products. The company aims to help individuals achieve a lifetime of financial security by offering products and services that meet their evolving needs.

How the Company Makes Money

Aegon N.V. generates revenue primarily through premiums collected from its life insurance and pension products, as well as fees from its asset management services. The company earns income by managing assets on behalf of its clients, charging management fees based on the assets under management. Additionally, Aegon invests the premiums it collects into a diversified portfolio of stocks, bonds, and other financial instruments, generating investment income. Aegon also benefits from strategic partnerships and joint ventures in various international markets, which enhance its distribution capabilities and expand its product offerings, contributing to its overall earnings.

Aegon NV Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Aegon NV demonstrates a mixed financial performance with notable improvements in profitability and cash flow stability. However, challenges remain in revenue consistency and leverage management. The company has shown the ability to recover from past financial difficulties, yet the high debt levels and low equity pose risks, necessitating a cautious approach to future financial planning and investment.

Income Statement

Aegon NV's income statement shows a challenging financial trajectory. The net profit margin improved from negative figures in previous years to a positive 3.52% in 2024, indicating a return to profitability. However, revenue has shown volatility, with a significant drop and subsequent recovery. The absence of EBIT in 2024 raises concerns about operational efficiency, although EBITDA margin has improved to 3.25%, suggesting cost management improvements.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a relatively high debt-to-equity ratio of 0.54 in 2024, which indicates moderate leverage. The equity ratio stands at 2.81%, showing a low reliance on equity financing. Return on equity improved to 7.49%, but the overall equity levels have decreased over recent years, raising concerns about long-term financial resilience.

Cash Flow

Aegon NV's cash flow statement indicates a recovery in free cash flow, with a growth rate of -6.95% from 2023 to 2024, showing resilience despite the drop. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.11, indicating that cash generation is aligned with profitability. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.01, suggesting limited cash surplus for reinvestment or debt reduction.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
19.52B	29.54B	53.77B	46.14B	44.33B
	Gross Profit
19.52B	22.88B	-15.85B	46.14B	44.33B
	EBIT
657.00M	146.00M	1.02B	2.24B	-493.00M
	EBITDA
635.00M	-204.00M	1.00B	2.21B	169.00M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
688.00M	-179.00M	-570.00M	1.98B	-135.00M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
58.18B	4.07B	64.31B	108.25B	109.00B
	Total Assets
327.39B	301.58B	401.79B	468.25B	443.81B
	Total Debt
5.00B	4.92B	6.67B	12.23B	11.07B
	Net Debt
1.53B	843.00M	3.27B	5.34B	2.71B
	Total Liabilities
318.08B	292.03B	387.60B	441.88B	419.15B
	Stockholders Equity
9.19B	7.55B	14.01B	26.18B	24.59B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
696.00M	748.00M	2.75B	-1.91B	-2.97B
	Operating Cash Flow
762.00M	864.00M	2.85B	-1.80B	-2.85B
	Investing Cash Flow
300.00M	-2.00B	616.00M	-54.00M	-139.00M
	Financing Cash Flow
-1.75B	-3.24B	-1.92B	300.00M	-778.00M

Aegon NV Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 6.03
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NL:AGN, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 6.03 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.24, above the 50-day MA of 5.89, and above the 200-day MA of 5.92, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.25 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 25.78 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for NL:AGN.

Aegon NV Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ABN	77 Outperform	€18.96B	8.24	10.26%	10.54%	-4.58%	-16.15%
NN	73 Outperform	€14.23B	9.89	7.69%	7.83%	-5.38%	38.01%
ASRNL	72 Outperform	€11.38B	12.99	11.73%	5.74%	23.70%	-26.24%
WKL	68 Neutral	€34.32B	32.23	65.51%	1.57%	5.95%	10.49%
Sector *	64 Neutral	$12.77B	9.71	7.85%	78.06%	12.07%	-7.97%
VLK	63 Neutral	€2.25B	17.04	10.90%	5.19%	58.95%	―
AGN	61 Neutral	€9.38B	14.37	9.26%	5.31%	-5.08%	―