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Aegon NV (NL:AGN)
:AGN

Aegon NV (AGN) AI Stock Analysis

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Aegon NV

(LSE:AGN)

Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
Aegon NV's overall score reflects its mixed financial performance, with strengths in profitability and cash flow stability but weaknesses in revenue consistency and high leverage. The stock's technical indicators suggest potential medium-term strength despite short-term weakness. Its valuation is attractive, offering a reasonable P/E ratio and a strong dividend yield. Overall, the stock shows moderate potential with some risks associated with financial resilience and market momentum.
Positive Factors
Capital Generation
Aegon's capital generation target reiterated is reassuring, with underlying OCG for 1Q expected at €320m, better than previous quarters.
Capital Return
AGN’s capital / cash positions are strong, giving ample visibility that the group would be able to return nearly 40% of its market cap over 2025-27 via dividends and buybacks.
Financial Strategy
Management reaffirmed its ambition to lower the group's holding cash buffer to €1bn by end-2026, indicating a strategic focus on financial stability.
Negative Factors
Business Challenges
New business figures show US protection sales are in-line with trends, but mid-market retirement flows struggle, reflecting ongoing challenges.
Financial Performance
Aegon reported an RBC ratio of 436%, missing consensus due to unforeseen impacts from Transamerica and Universal Life policies.
Stock Buyback
The new buyback of €200m is below analyst's forecast, leading to concerns that Aegon might pursue M&A with the excess capital.

Aegon NV (AGN) vs. iShares MSCI Netherlands ETF (EWN)

Aegon NV Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAegon N.V. is a multinational life insurance, pensions, and asset management company headquartered in The Hague, Netherlands. Founded in 1983, Aegon operates in multiple countries across Europe, the Americas, and Asia, providing a range of financial services including life insurance, pension plans, savings accounts, and investment products. The company aims to help individuals achieve a lifetime of financial security by offering products and services that meet their evolving needs.
How the Company Makes MoneyAegon N.V. generates revenue primarily through premiums collected from its life insurance and pension products, as well as fees from its asset management services. The company earns income by managing assets on behalf of its clients, charging management fees based on the assets under management. Additionally, Aegon invests the premiums it collects into a diversified portfolio of stocks, bonds, and other financial instruments, generating investment income. Aegon also benefits from strategic partnerships and joint ventures in various international markets, which enhance its distribution capabilities and expand its product offerings, contributing to its overall earnings.

Aegon NV Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Aegon NV demonstrates a mixed financial performance with notable improvements in profitability and cash flow stability. However, challenges remain in revenue consistency and leverage management. The company has shown the ability to recover from past financial difficulties, yet the high debt levels and low equity pose risks, necessitating a cautious approach to future financial planning and investment.
Income Statement
60
Neutral
Aegon NV's income statement shows a challenging financial trajectory. The net profit margin improved from negative figures in previous years to a positive 3.52% in 2024, indicating a return to profitability. However, revenue has shown volatility, with a significant drop and subsequent recovery. The absence of EBIT in 2024 raises concerns about operational efficiency, although EBITDA margin has improved to 3.25%, suggesting cost management improvements.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The balance sheet reflects a relatively high debt-to-equity ratio of 0.54 in 2024, which indicates moderate leverage. The equity ratio stands at 2.81%, showing a low reliance on equity financing. Return on equity improved to 7.49%, but the overall equity levels have decreased over recent years, raising concerns about long-term financial resilience.
Cash Flow
65
Positive
Aegon NV's cash flow statement indicates a recovery in free cash flow, with a growth rate of -6.95% from 2023 to 2024, showing resilience despite the drop. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.11, indicating that cash generation is aligned with profitability. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.01, suggesting limited cash surplus for reinvestment or debt reduction.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
19.52B29.54B53.77B46.14B44.33B
Gross Profit
19.52B22.88B-15.85B46.14B44.33B
EBIT
657.00M146.00M1.02B2.24B-493.00M
EBITDA
635.00M-204.00M1.00B2.21B169.00M
Net Income Common Stockholders
688.00M-179.00M-570.00M1.98B-135.00M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
58.18B4.07B64.31B108.25B109.00B
Total Assets
327.39B301.58B401.79B468.25B443.81B
Total Debt
5.00B4.92B6.67B12.23B11.07B
Net Debt
1.53B843.00M3.27B5.34B2.71B
Total Liabilities
318.08B292.03B387.60B441.88B419.15B
Stockholders Equity
9.19B7.55B14.01B26.18B24.59B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
696.00M748.00M2.75B-1.91B-2.97B
Operating Cash Flow
762.00M864.00M2.85B-1.80B-2.85B
Investing Cash Flow
300.00M-2.00B616.00M-54.00M-139.00M
Financing Cash Flow
-1.75B-3.24B-1.92B300.00M-778.00M

Aegon NV Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price6.33
Price Trends
50DMA
5.89
Positive
100DMA
6.01
Positive
200DMA
5.90
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.12
Positive
RSI
64.24
Neutral
STOCH
67.53
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NL:AGN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.33 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.23, above the 50-day MA of 5.89, and above the 200-day MA of 5.90, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.12 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 64.24 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.53 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NL:AGN.

Aegon NV Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
NLABN
77
Outperform
€19.28B8.3710.26%5.80%-4.58%-16.15%
NLNN
73
Outperform
€14.73B10.237.69%6.03%-5.38%38.01%
72
Outperform
€11.70B13.3611.73%5.59%23.70%-26.24%
NLWKL
68
Neutral
€36.43B34.2265.51%1.50%5.95%10.49%
64
Neutral
$12.87B9.817.76%16985.65%12.28%-7.83%
NLVLK
63
Neutral
€2.40B18.2310.90%4.85%58.95%
NLAGN
61
Neutral
€9.85B15.099.26%5.11%-5.08%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
NL:AGN
Aegon NV
6.33
0.75
13.48%
NL:VLK
Van Lanschot N.V.
56.70
21.63
61.65%
NL:ABN
ABN AMRO Group N.V.
23.14
8.54
58.46%
NL:ASRNL
ASR Nederland N.V
55.88
13.14
30.74%
NL:NN
NN Group N.V.
57.14
17.57
44.41%
NL:WKL
Wolters Kluwer N.V.
155.45
9.15
6.25%
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.