Aegon NV (AGN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €10.08B
• Dividend Yield: 5.41%
• Average Volume (3M): 4.58M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 15.4
• Beta (1Y): 1.14
• Revenue Growth: -5.08%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: NL
• Employees: 15,582
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 67
• Industry: Insurance - Diversified
• EPS (TTM): N/A
• Shares Outstanding: 1,652,797,500
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,445,246
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,583,602
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €6.79
• Price Target Upside: 4.95% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: €6.50 ▲(0.46% Upside)

Aegon NV presents a mixed investment case. Financial performance shows improvements but is offset by high debt and low equity levels. Technical analysis indicates a neutral to slightly positive outlook, while the valuation is attractive with a reasonable P/E ratio and high dividend yield. The absence of significant earnings call data and corporate events limits further insights into future performance.

Positive Factors

Capital Generation

Aegon's capital generation target reiterated is reassuring, with underlying OCG for 1Q expected at €320m, better than previous quarters.

Capital Return

AGN’s capital / cash positions are strong, giving ample visibility that the group would be able to return nearly 40% of its market cap over 2025-27 via dividends and buybacks.

Financial Stability

Management reaffirmed its ambition to lower the group's holding cash buffer to €1bn by end-2026, indicating a strategic focus on financial stability.

Negative Factors

Business Performance

Another disappointing update from Aegon leads the market to question the speed at which the group can be turned around.

Buyback Strategy

The new buyback of €200m is below analyst's forecast, leading to concerns that Aegon might pursue M&A with the excess capital.

RBC Ratio

Aegon reported an RBC ratio of 436%, missing consensus due to unforeseen impacts from Transamerica and Universal Life policies.

Aegon NV Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Aegon N.V. provides insurance, pensions, and asset management services in the Americas, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom. The company offers life, accident, and health insurance; savings, pension, annuities, and mutual funds; property and casualty insurance; retirement plans and individual retirement accounts; voluntary employee benefits; and stable value solutions. It also provides debt securities; mortgage loans; derivatives; reinsurance assets; other loans; money market and short-term investments; credit risk management; disability services; and digital banking solutions. Aegon N.V. was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in The Hague, the Netherlands.

How the Company Makes Money

Aegon generates revenue through multiple key streams, primarily from premiums received for life insurance policies and fees collected from asset management services. The company earns substantial income from its investment portfolios, which consist of bonds, stocks, and other financial instruments. Additionally, Aegon receives management fees from the funds it manages on behalf of clients, contributing significantly to its revenue. The company also benefits from partnerships with financial advisors and institutions that distribute its products, enhancing its market reach. Economic factors such as interest rates and market performance directly impact Aegon's earnings, making investment performance a critical component of its overall financial success.

Aegon NV Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Aegon NV shows a mixed financial performance with improvements in profitability and cash flow stability. However, revenue inconsistency and high leverage pose risks. Despite recovering from past challenges, high debt and low equity require cautious financial planning.

Income Statement

Aegon NV's income statement shows a challenging financial trajectory. The net profit margin improved from negative figures in previous years to a positive 3.52% in 2024, indicating a return to profitability. However, revenue has shown volatility, with a significant drop and subsequent recovery. The absence of EBIT in 2024 raises concerns about operational efficiency, although EBITDA margin has improved to 3.25%, suggesting cost management improvements.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a relatively high debt-to-equity ratio of 0.54 in 2024, which indicates moderate leverage. The equity ratio stands at 2.81%, showing a low reliance on equity financing. Return on equity improved to 7.49%, but the overall equity levels have decreased over recent years, raising concerns about long-term financial resilience.

Cash Flow

Aegon NV's cash flow statement indicates a recovery in free cash flow, with a growth rate of -6.95% from 2023 to 2024, showing resilience despite the drop. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.11, indicating that cash generation is aligned with profitability. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.01, suggesting limited cash surplus for reinvestment or debt reduction.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	19.52B	29.54B	53.77B	46.14B	44.33B
Gross Profit	19.52B	22.88B	-15.85B	46.14B	44.33B
EBITDA	635.00M	-204.00M	1.00B	2.21B	169.00M
Net Income	688.00M	-179.00M	-570.00M	1.98B	-135.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	327.39B	301.58B	401.79B	468.25B	443.81B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	58.18B	4.07B	64.31B	108.25B	109.00B
Total Debt	5.00B	4.92B	6.67B	12.23B	11.07B
Total Liabilities	318.08B	292.03B	387.60B	441.88B	419.15B
Stockholders Equity	9.19B	7.55B	14.01B	26.18B	24.59B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	696.00M	748.00M	2.75B	-1.91B	-2.97B
Operating Cash Flow	762.00M	864.00M	2.85B	-1.80B	-2.85B
Investing Cash Flow	300.00M	-2.00B	616.00M	-54.00M	-139.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.75B	-3.24B	-1.92B	300.00M	-778.00M

Aegon NV Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 6.47
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NL:AGN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.47 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.27, above the 50-day MA of 6.12, and above the 200-day MA of 5.87, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.09 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.24 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 92.57 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NL:AGN.

Aegon NV Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ABN	80 Outperform	€21.58B	9.51	10.16%	5.01%	-10.84%	-10.98%
HAL	79 Outperform	€11.63B	9.62	8.50%	2.25%	-0.89%	19.71%
NN	73 Outperform	€15.67B	12.95	6.47%	5.82%	-15.54%	10.53%
ASRNL	72 Outperform	€12.70B	14.65	11.73%	4.68%	23.70%	-26.24%
INGA	69 Neutral	€63.46B	10.72	12.42%	5.73%	0.47%	-2.06%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$17.56B	11.63	10.45%	3.85%	9.69%	1.92%
AGN	64 Neutral	€10.08B	15.43	9.26%	5.41%	-5.08%	―