Aegon NV (AGN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €9.54B
• Dividend Yield: 6.2%
• Average Volume (3M): 5.46M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 14.6
• Beta (1Y): 1.06
• Revenue Growth: -5.08%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: NL
• Employees: 15,582
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 82
• Industry: Insurance - Diversified
• EPS (TTM): N/A
• Shares Outstanding: 1,652,797,500
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 5,748,302
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 5,464,495
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.38
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 11.25
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €6.79
• Price Target Upside: 12.05% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

• Rating: 61 Neutral
• Price Target: €6.50 ▲(7.26%Upside)

Aegon NV's stock score is mainly driven by its financial performance and valuation. While profitability and cash flow have improved, revenue volatility and high leverage are concerns. The valuation is attractive with a solid dividend yield, offsetting some of the risks. Technical analysis slightly dampens the overall score due to neutral to bearish signals.

Positive Factors

Capital and Cash Position

AGN’s capital / cash positions are strong, giving ample visibility that the group would be able to return nearly 40% of its market cap over 2025-27 via dividends and buybacks.

Capital Generation

Aegon's capital generation target reiterated is reassuring, with underlying OCG for 1Q expected at €320m, better than previous quarters.

Financial Strategy

Management reaffirmed its ambition to lower the group's holding cash buffer to €1bn by end-2026, indicating a strategic focus on financial stability.

Negative Factors

Business Challenges

New business figures show US protection sales are in-line with trends, but mid-market retirement flows struggle, reflecting ongoing challenges.

Buyback Concerns

The new buyback of €200m is below analyst's forecast, leading to concerns that Aegon might pursue M&A with the excess capital.

RBC Ratio

Aegon reported an RBC ratio of 436%, missing consensus due to unforeseen impacts from Transamerica and Universal Life policies.

Aegon NV Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Aegon N.V. is a multinational life insurance, pensions, and asset management company headquartered in The Hague, Netherlands. Founded in 1983, Aegon operates in multiple countries across Europe, the Americas, and Asia, providing a range of financial services including life insurance, pension plans, savings accounts, and investment products. The company aims to help individuals achieve a lifetime of financial security by offering products and services that meet their evolving needs.

How the Company Makes Money

Aegon N.V. generates revenue primarily through premiums collected from its life insurance and pension products, as well as fees from its asset management services. The company earns income by managing assets on behalf of its clients, charging management fees based on the assets under management. Additionally, Aegon invests the premiums it collects into a diversified portfolio of stocks, bonds, and other financial instruments, generating investment income. Aegon also benefits from strategic partnerships and joint ventures in various international markets, which enhance its distribution capabilities and expand its product offerings, contributing to its overall earnings.

Aegon NV Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Aegon NV demonstrates a mixed financial performance with notable improvements in profitability and cash flow stability. However, challenges remain in revenue consistency and leverage management. The company has shown the ability to recover from past financial difficulties, yet the high debt levels and low equity pose risks, necessitating a cautious approach to future financial planning and investment.

Income Statement

Aegon NV's income statement shows a challenging financial trajectory. The net profit margin improved from negative figures in previous years to a positive 3.52% in 2024, indicating a return to profitability. However, revenue has shown volatility, with a significant drop and subsequent recovery. The absence of EBIT in 2024 raises concerns about operational efficiency, although EBITDA margin has improved to 3.25%, suggesting cost management improvements.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a relatively high debt-to-equity ratio of 0.54 in 2024, which indicates moderate leverage. The equity ratio stands at 2.81%, showing a low reliance on equity financing. Return on equity improved to 7.49%, but the overall equity levels have decreased over recent years, raising concerns about long-term financial resilience.

Cash Flow

Aegon NV's cash flow statement indicates a recovery in free cash flow, with a growth rate of -6.95% from 2023 to 2024, showing resilience despite the drop. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.11, indicating that cash generation is aligned with profitability. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.01, suggesting limited cash surplus for reinvestment or debt reduction.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	19.52B	29.54B	53.77B	46.14B	44.33B
Gross Profit	19.52B	22.88B	-15.85B	46.14B	44.33B
EBITDA	635.00M	-204.00M	1.00B	2.21B	169.00M
Net Income	688.00M	-179.00M	-570.00M	1.98B	-135.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	327.39B	301.58B	401.79B	468.25B	443.81B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	58.18B	4.07B	64.31B	108.25B	109.00B
Total Debt	5.00B	4.92B	6.67B	12.23B	11.07B
Total Liabilities	318.08B	292.03B	387.60B	441.88B	419.15B
Stockholders Equity	9.19B	7.55B	14.01B	26.18B	24.59B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	696.00M	748.00M	2.75B	-1.91B	-2.97B
Operating Cash Flow	762.00M	864.00M	2.85B	-1.80B	-2.85B
Investing Cash Flow	300.00M	-2.00B	616.00M	-54.00M	-139.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.75B	-3.24B	-1.92B	300.00M	-778.00M

Aegon NV Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 6.06
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NL:AGN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.06 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.98, above the 50-day MA of 5.94, and above the 200-day MA of 5.79, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.06 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.45 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.99 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NL:AGN.

Aegon NV Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ABN	77 Outperform	€20.28B	8.81	10.26%	9.90%	-4.58%	-16.15%
ABN	77 Outperform	€20.28B	8.81	10.26%	9.90%	-4.58%	-16.15%
NN	73 Outperform	€14.57B	10.12	7.69%	7.72%	-5.38%	38.01%
NN	73 Outperform	€14.57B	10.12	7.69%	7.72%	-5.38%	38.01%
ASRNL	72 Outperform	€11.85B	13.52	11.73%	8.20%	23.70%	-26.24%
ASRNL	72 Outperform	€11.85B	13.52	11.73%	8.20%	23.70%	-26.24%
Sector *	67 Neutral	$16.89B	11.80	9.79%	3.77%	12.07%	-8.35%
VLK	63 Neutral	€2.31B	17.52	10.90%	4.37%	58.95%	―
AGN	61 Neutral	€9.54B	14.61	9.26%	6.20%	-5.08%	―
WKL	61 Neutral	€32.69B	30.71	65.51%	2.15%	5.95%	10.49%
WKL	61 Neutral	€32.69B	30.71	65.51%	2.15%	5.95%	10.49%