Aegon NV (AGN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €9.68B
• Dividend Yield: 5.55%
• Average Volume (3M): 5.50M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 14.8
• Beta (1Y): 1.10
• Revenue Growth: -5.08%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: NL
• Employees: 15,582
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 75
• Industry: Insurance - Diversified
• EPS (TTM): N/A
• Shares Outstanding: 1,652,797,500
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,302,661
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 5,503,902
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €6.75
• Price Target Upside: 8.70% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9

• Rating: 61 Neutral
• Price Target: €6.50 ▲(4.67%Upside)

Aegon NV's stock score is mainly driven by its financial performance and valuation. While profitability and cash flow have improved, revenue volatility and high leverage are concerns. The valuation is attractive with a solid dividend yield, offsetting some of the risks. Technical analysis slightly dampens the overall score due to neutral to bearish signals.

Positive Factors

Capital Generation

Aegon's capital generation target reiterated is reassuring, with underlying OCG for €320m, better than previous quarters.

Financial Stability

Management reaffirmed its ambition to lower the group's holding cash buffer to €1bn, indicating a strategic focus on financial stability.

Negative Factors

Buyback Concerns

The new buyback of €200m is below analyst's forecast, leading to concerns that Aegon might pursue mergers and acquisitions with the excess capital.

Consensus Miss

Aegon reported an RBC ratio of 436%, missing consensus due to unforeseen impacts from Transamerica and Universal Life policies.

Aegon NV Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Aegon N.V. is a multinational life insurance, pensions, and asset management company headquartered in The Hague, Netherlands. The company operates across a variety of financial sectors, offering a broad range of insurance products, including life insurance, pensions, and long-term investment solutions. Aegon is active in multiple regions, including the Americas, Europe, and Asia, serving millions of customers worldwide. The company is committed to providing financial security and investment opportunities tailored to meet the needs of individual and institutional clients.

How the Company Makes Money

Aegon N.V. generates revenue primarily through the sale of life insurance policies, pension plans, and asset management services. The company earns money from insurance premiums paid by policyholders, which provide financial protection and savings plans. Additionally, Aegon manages assets for clients, generating fees based on the size and performance of the assets under management. Aegon also invests in financial markets, leveraging its capital to generate returns. The company benefits from strategic partnerships and joint ventures in various regions, enhancing its distribution channels and expanding its market reach. Interest income from invested premiums and assets further contributes to Aegon's revenue, alongside fees and charges associated with the administration of pension and investment products.

Aegon NV Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Aegon NV shows a mixed financial performance with improvements in profitability and cash flow stability. However, revenue inconsistency and high leverage pose risks. Despite recovering from past challenges, high debt and low equity require cautious financial planning.

Income Statement

Aegon NV's income statement shows a challenging financial trajectory. The net profit margin improved from negative figures in previous years to a positive 3.52% in 2024, indicating a return to profitability. However, revenue has shown volatility, with a significant drop and subsequent recovery. The absence of EBIT in 2024 raises concerns about operational efficiency, although EBITDA margin has improved to 3.25%, suggesting cost management improvements.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a relatively high debt-to-equity ratio of 0.54 in 2024, which indicates moderate leverage. The equity ratio stands at 2.81%, showing a low reliance on equity financing. Return on equity improved to 7.49%, but the overall equity levels have decreased over recent years, raising concerns about long-term financial resilience.

Cash Flow

Aegon NV's cash flow statement indicates a recovery in free cash flow, with a growth rate of -6.95% from 2023 to 2024, showing resilience despite the drop. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.11, indicating that cash generation is aligned with profitability. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.01, suggesting limited cash surplus for reinvestment or debt reduction.

Breakdown
Income Statement
Total Revenue
Gross Profit
EBITDA
Net Income
Balance Sheet
Total Assets
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
Total Debt
Total Liabilities
Stockholders Equity
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow
Operating Cash Flow
Investing Cash Flow
Financing Cash Flow

Aegon NV Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 6.21
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NL:AGN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.21 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.12, above the 50-day MA of 6.05, and above the 200-day MA of 5.83, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.06 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.28 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.24 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NL:AGN.

Aegon NV Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ABN	77 Outperform	€20.78B	9.03	10.26%	5.73%	-4.58%	-16.15%
NN	73 Outperform	€15.02B	10.43	7.69%	3.65%	-5.38%	38.01%
ASRNL	72 Outperform	€12.06B	13.76	11.73%	4.92%	23.70%	-26.24%
Sector *	70 Neutral	€16.09B	9.76	13.40%	4.09%	30.06%	32.03%
VLK	63 Neutral	€2.42B	18.36	10.90%	7.27%	58.95%	―
AGN	61 Neutral	€9.68B	14.82	9.26%	5.55%	-5.08%	―
WKL	61 Neutral	€31.60B	29.68	65.51%	1.73%	5.95%	10.49%