CTP N.V. (NL:CTPNV)
:CTPNV
Top Page
CTP N.V.
(CTPNV)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
€16.00
▲(1.91% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/04/26
Overall score reflects strong financial results and constructive earnings outlook (guided EPS and rental income growth) plus attractive valuation (low P/E and solid yield). The main offsets are balance-sheet leverage/cash-conversion concerns and weak current technical trend (below key moving averages with negative MACD).
Positive Factors
Strong rental income growth
Sustained double-digit rental income growth creates predictable, recurring cash flow that supports debt service and dividend capacity. Locked-in rental income and rising annualized rents underpin defensive revenue visibility across development cycles and reduce reliance on one-time revaluations.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage metrics
Leverage modestly above target and high net-debt/EBITDA increase sensitivity to interest rates and asset revaluations. This constrains capital allocation flexibility, narrows covenant headroom, and raises refinancing risk during cyclical downturns, making growth more funding-dependent and cash-flow sensitive.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong rental income growth
Sustained double-digit rental income growth creates predictable, recurring cash flow that supports debt service and dividend capacity. Locked-in rental income and rising annualized rents underpin defensive revenue visibility across development cycles and reduce reliance on one-time revaluations.
Read all positive factors
CTP N.V. (CTPNV) vs. iShares MSCI Netherlands ETF (EWN)
Market Cap
€7.71B
Dividend Yield3.51%
Average Volume (3M)106.50K
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.2
Beta (1Y)0.61
Revenue Growth20.65%
EPS Growth23.70%
CountryNL
Employees874
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryReal Estate - Development
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.21
Shares Outstanding485,051,480
10 Day Avg. Volume124,280
30 Day Avg. Volume106,500
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.97
Price to Book (P/B)1.05
Price to Sales (P/S)9.17
P/FCF Ratio30.91
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
€20.26Price Target Upside29.04% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)0.99
Revenue Forecast (FY)€938.25M
CTP N.V. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
CTP N.V. engages in the ownership, development, management, and leasing of logistics and industrial real estate properties in Central and Eastern Europe. Its properties are used primarily for production and warehousing, third-party logistics and d...
How the Company Makes Money
CTP N.V. primarily makes money by leasing industrial and logistics real estate to tenants and collecting recurring rental income under lease agreements. Its core revenue streams typically include: (1) rental income from tenants occupying its compl...
CTP N.V. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a broadly positive operational and financial report: strong leasing activity, double-digit increases in net rental income and EPRA earnings, meaningful portfolio revaluation and NAV accretion, robust liquidity and an investment-grade upgrade. Management is executing geographic expansion (Italy, exploratory Vietnam) and guiding to resilient 2026 completions and EPS growth. Headwinds included elevated absolute vacancy due to scale and refurbishments, a modest decline in tenant retention, development timing delays that shifted ~150,000 sqm and caused a EUR 0.01 EPS miss, and temporary pressure on leverage (LTV at 46.1%) and costs from new market entries. On balance, the positives (growth, earnings, revaluations, strong leasing and funding access) materially outweigh the manageable near-term challenges.Positive Updates
Strong rental income and net rental growth
Net rental income increased 14.1% year-on-year to EUR 738 million; annualized rental income rose 13% to EUR 840 million, illustrating strong cash flow generation and a locked-in growth profile for 2026.
Negative Updates
Leverage and LTV slightly above target
Loan-to-value ended at 46.1%, marginally above the stated 40%–45% target, driven by the Italy acquisition; normalized net debt-to-EBITDA at ~9.3x and interest coverage ratio stable at 2.5x, indicating elevated leverage though management expects metrics to normalize as leasing and revaluations crystallize.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong rental income and net rental growth
Net rental income increased 14.1% year-on-year to EUR 738 million; annualized rental income rose 13% to EUR 840 million, illustrating strong cash flow generation and a locked-in growth profile for 2026.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
CTP guided 2026 development completions of 1.4–1.7 million sqm (including ~200,000 sqm in Italy), with a start‑of‑year pre‑let of ~30% (30–35% range) and an 80–90% pre‑let target at delivery; company‑specific adjusted EPRA EPS is guided at EUR 1.01–1.03 (up ~9–11% y/y from EUR 0.85 in 2025), annualized rental income is expected to rise from EUR 840m to about EUR 1.0bn, and the medium‑term trajectory remains double‑digit growth (targeting ~15% p.a. top‑line growth). Financial targets include ~10% yield on cost for 2026 projects, a FY25 reversionary yield of 6.9% with selective compression and ERV growth in line with inflation, LTV to move back toward the 40–45% target from 46.1% at year‑end, normalized net debt/EBITDA ~9.3x, ICR floor ~2.5x, weighted average cost of debt ~3.3% (marginal funding <3.5%), liquidity of EUR 2.0bn (EUR 700m cash + EUR 1.3bn RCF), a push to ~80% unsecured debt, a longer‑term 30m sqm GLA ambition by 2030, and a dividend payout in the 70–80% range (moving toward the lower end).CTP N.V. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 970.20M | 870.70M | 673.80M | 589.11M | 407.37M |
| Gross Profit | 760.00M | 681.80M | 554.00M | 464.92M | 333.66M |
| EBITDA | 1.71B | 1.59B | 461.20M | 1.04B | 1.33B |
| Net Income | 1.08B | 1.08B | 922.60M | 766.60M | 1.03B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 19.97B | 17.38B | 14.87B | 12.53B | 9.69B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 708.40M | 855.40M | 690.60M | 660.63M | 892.82M |
| Total Debt | 9.29B | 8.15B | 7.02B | 5.88B | 4.51B |
| Total Liabilities | 11.51B | 10.03B | 8.71B | 7.24B | 5.58B |
| Stockholders Equity | 8.46B | 7.35B | 6.17B | 5.28B | 4.11B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 287.70M | 306.60M | 256.50M | 256.41M | 125.09M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 382.70M | 340.00M | 318.40M | 300.31M | 139.06M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.53B | -1.33B | -1.18B | -1.36B | -1.44B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 992.00M | 1.15B | 886.10M | 837.18M | 1.77B |
CTP N.V. Technical Analysis
Negative
15.70
Price Trends
17.20
Negative
17.61
Negative
17.87
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.69
Negative
39.76
Neutral
83.15
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NL:CTPNV, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 15.7 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.33, below the 50-day MA of 17.20, and below the 200-day MA of 17.87, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.69 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 39.76 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.15 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NL:CTPNV.
CTP N.V. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
NL:CTPNV
CTP N.V.
15.90
1.89
13.47%
NL:WHA
Wereldhave NV
22.30
8.48
61.37%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.