CTP N.V. (NL:CTPNV)
:CTPNV
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CTP N.V.
(CTPNV)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
€17.50
▲(5.04% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:05/01/26
The score is driven primarily by strong underlying financial results (revenue and earnings strength) but held back by leverage and weaker cash-flow conversion. Valuation is a clear positive (low P/E and solid yield), while technical indicators are neutral-to-soft. The latest earnings call adds support via positive 2026 growth guidance and strong leasing/funding, offset by leverage and execution/timing risks.
Positive Factors
Revenue growth and profitability
CTP has sustained top-line momentum and strong reported earnings across the period, driven by recurring rental income and development conversion. Durable revenue growth and elevated margins support cash generation potential and provide a structural base to fund expansion and dividends over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage and LTV
Meaningful leverage and an LTV above target raise structural refinancing and interest-rate sensitivity risks for a development-heavy REIT. Elevated net debt/EBITDA constrains balance sheet flexibility, limits capacity to absorb development timing misses, and could pressure payout policy if market conditions tighten.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue growth and profitability
CTP has sustained top-line momentum and strong reported earnings across the period, driven by recurring rental income and development conversion. Durable revenue growth and elevated margins support cash generation potential and provide a structural base to fund expansion and dividends over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
CTP N.V. (CTPNV) vs. iShares MSCI Netherlands ETF (EWN)
Market Cap
€7.80B
Dividend Yield3.51%
Average Volume (3M)106.50K
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.2
Beta (1Y)0.65
Revenue Growth11.86%
EPS Growth0.94%
CountryNL
Employees874
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryReal Estate - Development
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.25
Shares Outstanding485,051,480
10 Day Avg. Volume124,280
30 Day Avg. Volume106,500
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.97
Price to Book (P/B)1.05
Price to Sales (P/S)9.17
P/FCF Ratio30.91
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
€20.33Price Target Upside22.02% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)0.99
Revenue Forecast (FY)€929.82M
CTP N.V. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
CTP N.V. engages in the ownership, development, management, and leasing of logistics and industrial real estate properties in Central and Eastern Europe. Its properties are used primarily for production and warehousing, third-party logistics and d...
How the Company Makes Money
CTP N.V. primarily makes money by leasing industrial and logistics space to tenants under rental contracts and collecting recurring rental income from its completed property portfolio. A key revenue stream is contracted rent from existing building...
CTP N.V. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a broadly positive operational and financial report: strong leasing activity, double-digit increases in net rental income and EPRA earnings, meaningful portfolio revaluation and NAV accretion, robust liquidity and an investment-grade upgrade. Management is executing geographic expansion (Italy, exploratory Vietnam) and guiding to resilient 2026 completions and EPS growth. Headwinds included elevated absolute vacancy due to scale and refurbishments, a modest decline in tenant retention, development timing delays that shifted ~150,000 sqm and caused a EUR 0.01 EPS miss, and temporary pressure on leverage (LTV at 46.1%) and costs from new market entries. On balance, the positives (growth, earnings, revaluations, strong leasing and funding access) materially outweigh the manageable near-term challenges.Positive Updates
Strong rental income and net rental growth
Net rental income increased 14.1% year-on-year to EUR 738 million; annualized rental income rose 13% to EUR 840 million, illustrating strong cash flow generation and a locked-in growth profile for 2026.
Negative Updates
Leverage and LTV slightly above target
Loan-to-value ended at 46.1%, marginally above the stated 40%–45% target, driven by the Italy acquisition; normalized net debt-to-EBITDA at ~9.3x and interest coverage ratio stable at 2.5x, indicating elevated leverage though management expects metrics to normalize as leasing and revaluations crystallize.
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Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong rental income and net rental growth
Net rental income increased 14.1% year-on-year to EUR 738 million; annualized rental income rose 13% to EUR 840 million, illustrating strong cash flow generation and a locked-in growth profile for 2026.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
CTP guided 2026 development completions of 1.4–1.7 million sqm (including ~200,000 sqm in Italy), with a start‑of‑year pre‑let of ~30% (30–35% range) and an 80–90% pre‑let target at delivery; company‑specific adjusted EPRA EPS is guided at EUR 1.01–1.03 (up ~9–11% y/y from EUR 0.85 in 2025), annualized rental income is expected to rise from EUR 840m to about EUR 1.0bn, and the medium‑term trajectory remains double‑digit growth (targeting ~15% p.a. top‑line growth). Financial targets include ~10% yield on cost for 2026 projects, a FY25 reversionary yield of 6.9% with selective compression and ERV growth in line with inflation, LTV to move back toward the 40–45% target from 46.1% at year‑end, normalized net debt/EBITDA ~9.3x, ICR floor ~2.5x, weighted average cost of debt ~3.3% (marginal funding <3.5%), liquidity of EUR 2.0bn (EUR 700m cash + EUR 1.3bn RCF), a push to ~80% unsecured debt, a longer‑term 30m sqm GLA ambition by 2030, and a dividend payout in the 70–80% range (moving toward the lower end).CTP N.V. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
67
Positive
Cash Flow
56
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 998.90M | 970.20M | 870.70M | 673.80M | 589.11M | 407.37M |
| Gross Profit | 790.00M | 760.00M | 681.80M | 554.00M | 464.92M | 333.66M |
| EBITDA | 1.52B | 1.71B | 1.59B | 461.20M | 1.04B | 1.33B |
| Net Income | 1.10B | 1.08B | 1.08B | 922.60M | 766.60M | 1.03B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 20.28B | 19.97B | 17.38B | 14.87B | 12.53B | 9.69B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 633.00M | 708.40M | 855.40M | 690.60M | 660.63M | 892.82M |
| Total Debt | 882.50M | 9.29B | 8.15B | 7.02B | 5.88B | 4.51B |
| Total Liabilities | 11.60B | 11.51B | 10.03B | 8.71B | 7.24B | 5.58B |
| Stockholders Equity | 8.68B | 8.46B | 7.35B | 6.17B | 5.28B | 4.11B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 198.90M | 287.70M | 306.60M | 256.50M | 256.41M | 125.09M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 298.20M | 382.70M | 340.00M | 318.40M | 300.31M | 139.06M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.52B | -1.53B | -1.33B | -1.18B | -1.36B | -1.44B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 10.20M | 992.00M | 1.15B | 886.10M | 837.18M | 1.77B |
CTP N.V. Technical Analysis
Neutral
16.66
Price Trends
16.84
Negative
17.47
Negative
17.83
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.03
Negative
59.54
Neutral
90.82
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NL:CTPNV, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 16.66 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.34, below the 50-day MA of 16.84, and below the 200-day MA of 17.83, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.54 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.82 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for NL:CTPNV.
CTP N.V. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
NL:CTPNV
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16.08
-0.45
-2.74%
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22.00
6.44
41.39%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.