Nebius Group (NBIS) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $30.59B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 15.75M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 208.3
• Beta (1Y): 1.95
• Revenue Growth: -87.55%
• EPS Growth: 336.73%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,371
• Sector: Communication Services
• Sector Strength: 97
• Industry: Internet Content & Information
• EPS (TTM): -0.68
• Shares Outstanding: 218,158,550
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 20,141,643
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 15,754,891
• PEG Ratio: -1.99
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.59
• Price to Sales (P/S): 39.98
• P/FCF Ratio: -5.75
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.96
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 55.17
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 81.14
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -106.49
• 1Y Price Target: $168.13
• Price Target Upside: 41.81% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): -2.5
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $3.28B

• Rating: 56 Neutral
• Price Target: $120.00 ▲(1.21% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/18/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/18/26

The score is held back primarily by mixed financial quality—ongoing operating losses, higher leverage, and deeply negative free cash flow—despite strong top-line momentum. Technicals are supportive with an uptrend and positive momentum, but valuation is stretched (very high P/E). Earnings call tone was positive on demand and targets, tempered by sizeable CapEx and execution/timing risk.

Positive Factors

Rapid Revenue & ARR Momentum

Sustained, multi-quarter top-line surge and a $1.2B ARR demonstrate durable product-market fit for Nebius’s AI cloud offerings. Large percentage growth at scale supports improving unit economics, longer contract durations and increased customer stickiness, underpinning durable revenue visibility over 2–6 months and beyond.

Material Operating Cash Generation

Strong operating cash flow and a sizeable cash balance provide a multi-quarter liquidity buffer to fund expansion and absorb timing slippage. Positive cash generation validates demand and reduces near-term financing pressure, improving the company’s ability to execute its multi-year data center rollout and contract obligations.

Large Strategic Contracts & Partnerships

A multibillion-dollar supply agreement with Meta materially increases long-term demand visibility and contracted utilization for Nebius’s GPU capacity. Such anchor contracts reduce commercialization risk, aid capacity planning and strengthen bargaining power with vendors, supporting sustained scale and market position.

Negative Factors

Extremely Large 2026 CapEx Requirement

A multiyear buildout requiring $16–20B in a single year concentrates execution and funding risk. Delivering greenfield data centers at scale demands supply-chain, permitting and project management capabilities; missteps or delays would compress margins, delay revenue recognition and raise refinancing or dilution risk.

Leverage Increase and Negative Free Cash Flow

Rising leverage (~>1x debt-to-equity) plus deeply negative free cash flow signal constrained financial flexibility if heavy investment persists. Even with operating cash inflows, sustained negative FCF forces reliance on external financing which can increase cost of capital or dilute shareholders and limit strategic optionality.

Near-Term Operating Profitability & Timing Risk

Persisting EBIT losses and H2-concentrated revenue create sensitivity to deployment and recognition timing. If capacity ramps slip or large customer tranches are delayed, projected margin inflection and cash coverage could miss targets, prolonging operating loss exposure and stressing medium-term profitability plans.

Nebius Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Nebius Group N.V., operates as a technology company that engages in building full-stack infrastructure to service the global AI industry. Its businesses include Nebius, an AI-centric cloud platform built for intensive AI workloads. Nebius builds full-stack infrastructure for AI, including large-scale GPU clusters, cloud platforms, and tools and services for developers. The company's businesses also comprise Toloka AI, a data partner for various stages of generative AI development; TripleTen, an edtech player re-skilling people for careers in tech; and Avride, which develops autonomous driving technology for self-driving cars and delivery robots. The company was formerly known as Yandex N.V. and changed its name to Nebius Group N.V. in August 2024. Nebius Group N.V. was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Amsterdam, the Netherlands with R&D hubs across Europe, North America and Israel.

How the Company Makes Money

Nebius Group makes money primarily by selling cloud infrastructure and related services. The core revenue model is usage-based (and/or contract-based) cloud consumption, where customers pay for access to compute resources—particularly GPU instances used for AI training and inference—along with associated services such as storage and data transfer/networking. A key revenue stream is AI-focused infrastructure-as-a-service (IaaS), with pricing typically tied to the type and amount of compute consumed over time (e.g., GPU-hours), and potentially to reserved/committed capacity arrangements for customers that need predictable supply. Additional revenue can come from platform and managed offerings that sit on top of infrastructure (e.g., tooling that helps customers deploy and operate AI workloads) when offered as paid services. Significant factors influencing earnings include demand for AI compute, the company’s ability to secure and utilize GPU supply efficiently, data center capacity and utilization rates, and customer concentration among AI developers and enterprises. Specific material partnerships, customer contracts, or segment-level revenue breakdowns are not available here and are therefore null.

Nebius Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Revenue and gross profit improved sharply and net income turned positive, but operating fundamentals remain weak (deeply negative EBIT/EBITDA), leverage has stepped up to a bit over 1x debt-to-equity, and free cash flow is deeply negative despite positive operating cash flow—raising execution and funding risk.

Income Statement

The latest annual period shows a sharp rebound in scale, with revenue up materially year over year and a strong improvement in gross profitability. Net income also turned positive, lifting net margin into healthy territory. However, core operating profitability remains weak: both EBIT and EBITDA are still deeply negative, indicating the business is not yet consistently profitable from operations and results may be influenced by non-operating items. Overall, the trajectory is improving on growth and gross profit, but operating losses keep the income statement quality mixed.

Balance Sheet

Equity remains sizable relative to the asset base, but leverage has increased meaningfully in the most recent year, with debt rising to roughly match equity (debt-to-equity a little above 1x). While the company is no longer in a loss-making year on net income, returns on equity are still low, suggesting limited efficiency in generating profits from the capital base. The balance sheet is serviceable due to the equity cushion, but the step-up in debt adds financial risk and reduces flexibility.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow is positive, which is a key support for liquidity, but it covers only a modest portion of accounting earnings in the latest year, pointing to weaker cash conversion. More importantly, free cash flow is deeply negative most recently, implying heavy investment and/or working-capital drag that is consuming cash despite positive operating inflows. The cash flow profile therefore looks volatile and currently pressured, with execution risk if large cash outlays persist.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	529.80M	117.50M	20.90M	13.50M	4.76B
Gross Profit	363.60M	44.10M	-11.00M	-14.90M	2.43B
EBITDA	-192.20M	-363.40M	-298.20M	-130.50M	109.87M
Net Income	101.70M	-641.40M	241.30M	745.60M	-196.01M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	12.45B	3.55B	8.76B	8.28B	6.91B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.68B	2.45B	121.20M	1.13B	1.44B
Total Debt	4.89B	49.70M	584.76M	1.39B	1.89B
Total Liabilities	7.84B	294.90M	5.46B	3.74B	3.25B
Stockholders Equity	4.61B	3.25B	3.29B	4.25B	3.46B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-3.68B	-562.10M	746.40M	682.40M	-473.75M
Operating Cash Flow	384.80M	245.60M	829.80M	697.00M	124.62M
Investing Cash Flow	-4.23B	311.60M	-1.21B	-403.10M	294.94M
Financing Cash Flow	5.13B	825.50M	375.60M	-100.30M	-1.14B

Nebius Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 118.56
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NBIS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 118.56 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 103.72, above the 50-day MA of 98.82, and above the 200-day MA of 86.13, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 6.50 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.80 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 70.53 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NBIS.

Nebius Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TWLO	69 Neutral	$19.30B	643.16	0.43%	―	12.84%	―
DOCN	67 Neutral	$7.85B	42.89	-214.15%	―	14.20%	204.86%
ORCL	63 Neutral	$447.28B	27.89	57.35%	1.00%	11.08%	29.56%
Sector *	60 Neutral	$48.67B	4.58	-11.27%	4.14%	2.83%	-41.78%
SNOW	60 Neutral	$60.02B	-48.84	-60.27%	―	28.48%	-19.12%
NBIS	56 Neutral	$30.59B	208.29	2.48%	―	-87.55%	336.73%
CRWV	49 Neutral	$42.40B	-26.69	-33.10%	―	235.40%	19.90%

Nebius Group Corporate Events

Nebius Group Plans $3.75 Billion Convertible Note Offering to Fund AI Cloud Expansion

On March 17, 2026, Nebius Group N.V. announced a proposed private offering of $3.75 billion in convertible senior notes, split between $2.0 billion notes due 2031 and $1.75 billion notes due 2033, to be sold to qualified institutional buyers under Rule 144A. The company may also grant an over‑allotment option of up to an additional $562.5 million across both tranches, with the notes structured as senior unsecured obligations that accrete to 120% of original principal by maturity.

Nebius plans to use the proceeds to accelerate expansion of its AI cloud operations, including data center construction, footprint growth, GPU procurement and further development of its full‑stack AI platform. The deal, whose final pricing terms will be set at offering, underscores Nebius’s capital‑intensive growth strategy and could significantly bolster its AI infrastructure capacity, while introducing potential dilution and leverage considerations for institutional investors if the notes convert into equity.

The most recent analyst rating on (NBIS) stock is a Buy with a $169.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nebius Group stock, see the NBIS Stock Forecast page.

Nebius Seals $27 Billion AI Infrastructure Deal With Meta to Power Long-Term Cloud Growth

On March 16, 2026, Nebius Group announced that its U.S. subsidiary Nebius, Inc. signed a five‑year AI infrastructure supply agreement with Meta Platforms valued at up to approximately $27 billion, marking one of the first large‑scale deployments of NVIDIA’s Vera Rubin platform. Under the deal, Nebius will deliver $12 billion of dedicated GPU capacity across multiple locations starting in early 2027, while Meta also secured rights to additional unsold compute capacity in upcoming Nebius clusters worth up to $15 billion over the same period.

The agreement significantly deepens Nebius’s existing partnership with Meta and is positioned by founder and CEO Arkady Volozh as a cornerstone in securing large, long‑term capacity contracts to accelerate the build‑out of Nebius’s core AI cloud business. Despite the scale of the contract, Nebius said its guidance for 2026 remains unchanged, indicating that the financial and operational impact of the Meta deal is expected to materialize mainly beyond the current fiscal year while reinforcing Nebius’s standing in the competitive AI infrastructure market.

The most recent analyst rating on (NBIS) stock is a Hold with a $111.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nebius Group stock, see the NBIS Stock Forecast page.

Nebius Secures $2 Billion NVIDIA Investment and Strategic AI Cloud Partnership

On March 11, 2026, Nebius Group N.V. announced a $2 billion private placement with NVIDIA Corporation via a pre-funded warrant for 21,065,936 Class A shares, issued in an exempt transaction under U.S. securities laws. Nebius plans to use the proceeds to fund development of its full-stack AI cloud platform and construction of new greenfield data centers, with NVIDIA subject to a six-month lock-up on resales of the warrant and underlying shares.

The same day, Nebius and NVIDIA unveiled a strategic partnership to co-develop next-generation hyperscale AI cloud infrastructure, spanning AI factory design, inference and agentic AI stacks, multi-generation NVIDIA hardware deployment and fleet management tools. The collaboration is expected to enable Nebius to deploy more than 5 gigawatts of NVIDIA-based capacity globally by the end of 2030, significantly strengthening Nebius’s position as a specialist AI cloud provider and deepening NVIDIA’s role in large-scale AI infrastructure buildout.

The most recent analyst rating on (NBIS) stock is a Buy with a $130.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nebius Group stock, see the NBIS Stock Forecast page.

Nebius Group Posts Soaring 2025 AI Cloud Revenues Amid Heavy Infrastructure Spend

On February 12, 2026, Nebius Group reported unaudited financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, highlighting explosive top‑line growth but persistent losses. Quarterly revenue surged to $227.7 million from $35.2 million a year earlier, while full‑year revenue jumped to $529.8 million from $91.5 million, driven by expansion in its AI cloud and related platforms.

Despite this scale‑up, Nebius remained loss‑making, with Q4 2025 adjusted EBITDA swinging from a $63.9 million loss to a $15.0 million profit but net loss from continuing operations widening to $249.6 million. For 2025 as a whole, the company narrowed its loss from continuing operations to $29.0 million while ramping capital expenditures to $4.1 billion and significantly increasing depreciation, underscoring the heavy infrastructure build‑out required to compete in the AI cloud market and the ongoing risk‑reward balance for shareholders.

Operating expenses rose sharply across cost of revenues, product development, and SG&A, yet as a share of revenue they declined materially year on year, indicating improving operating leverage as the business scaled. Nebius also confirmed that Toloka, an AI development platform, was deconsolidated in the second quarter of 2025 and is now accounted for under the equity method, reflecting a more focused consolidation scope around its core AI infrastructure and adjacent businesses.

The company ended 2025 with 253,016,971 shares issued and outstanding, split between Class A and Class B stock excluding treasury shares, a structure relevant for voting dynamics and future equity‑based financing. Management accompanied the results with a shareholder letter from founder and CEO Arkady Volozh and scheduled an earnings webcast on February 12, 2026, signaling continued efforts to court global investors as Nebius positions itself more prominently in the rapidly evolving AI cloud sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (NBIS) stock is a Buy with a $211.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nebius Group stock, see the NBIS Stock Forecast page.

Nebius Group Moves to Replace Reanda With Deloitte as Auditor After Internal Control Concerns

Nebius Group N.V. announced on February 12, 2026, that its board will recommend shareholders approve the appointment of Deloitte & Touche LLP as its independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026. The move follows a review by the audit committee, which led to the decision to dismiss Reanda Audit & Assurance B.V. after it completes the 2025 year-end audit and the review of first-quarter 2026 results, contingent on shareholder approval.

Reanda’s audit opinion on Nebius’s 2024 financial statements was clean, with no adverse or qualified opinion and no reportable disagreements on accounting or auditing matters through the date of the filing. However, Reanda had previously issued an adverse opinion on Nebius’s internal control over financial reporting as of December 31, 2024, and the transition to Deloitte signals a significant change in the company’s audit oversight that may influence investor perceptions of its governance and control remediation efforts.

Nebius stated it did not consult Deloitte in advance on specific accounting treatments, potential audit opinions, or other reportable issues during 2024 and 2025, seeking to underscore the independence of the incoming auditor. Reanda has provided a confirmation letter to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission agreeing with Nebius’s description of the auditor change, aside from matters relating to Deloitte’s prior consultation history, reinforcing transparency around the planned shift in audit firms.

The most recent analyst rating on (NBIS) stock is a Buy with a $211.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nebius Group stock, see the NBIS Stock Forecast page.

Nebius to Acquire Agentic Search Leader Tavily to Strengthen AI Cloud Platform

On February 9, 2026, Nebius Group N.V. agreed to acquire AlphaAI Technologies Inc., which operates as Tavily, via a merger that will make Tavily a wholly owned subsidiary with operations in Israel and the UAE. The cash-upfront deal, whose value was not disclosed, includes potential performance-based earn-outs payable in cash or Nebius Class A shares and is expected to close in the coming days, subject to customary conditions.

Tavily, a leading agentic search provider with over three million monthly SDK downloads and a developer community exceeding one million users, will add real-time web search infrastructure to Nebius’s AI cloud stack. By integrating Tavily’s agentic search with Nebius’s Token Factory inference service, the company aims to offer a unified platform for building enterprise-grade autonomous agents, strengthening its competitive position in the rapidly expanding agentic AI market and reducing customers’ reliance on multiple vendors.

Tavily’s founder and CEO Rotem Weiss and the broader Tavily team will join Nebius, with the Tavily brand continuing to serve existing Fortune 500 and AI-native customers while leveraging Nebius’s global infrastructure. The deal underscores Nebius’s strategy to capture a projected multibillion-dollar agentic AI opportunity by owning critical infrastructure layers, from high-performance inference to real-time grounding, as enterprises scale deployment of autonomous AI systems.

The most recent analyst rating on (NBIS) stock is a Hold with a $126.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nebius Group stock, see the NBIS Stock Forecast page.