ModivCare (MODV) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $20.00M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 466.55K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.71
• Revenue Growth: 1.32%
• EPS Growth: 1.95%
• Country: US
• Employees: 23,675
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 71
• Industry: Medical - Care Facilities
• EPS (TTM): -14.15
• Shares Outstanding: 14,340,049
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 469,673
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 466,553
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.01
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 0.30
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.30
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $6.19
• Price Target Upside: 342.14% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5

ModivCare Inc. faces notable financial challenges and negative market momentum, reflected in its low overall score. Although there are efforts to improve its financial position, significant risks remain with high leverage, poor cash flow, and recent contract losses. Technical indicators suggest further potential declines without immediate positive catalysts.

Positive Factors

Company Strategy

The appointment of a Chief Transformation Officer is expected to focus on asset divestitures, which could unlock significant value for ModivCare.

Earnings

Adjusted EPS of $0.19 beat the consensus estimate of $0.17, indicating better-than-expected profitability.

Financing

ModivCare has secured $75 million in incremental financing and an additional $30 million capital commitment, indicating a strong influx of capital.

Negative Factors

Financial Guidance

ModivCare withdrew its financial guidance for FY/24 and FY/25 due to slower-than-expected expense reductions and contract headwinds.

Liquidity

Liquidity constraints and broader macro uncertainty around Medicaid utilization and funding are significant concerns affecting Modivcare's long-term potential.

Valuation

The price target for ModivCare has been lowered to $10 from $25 due to speculative risk and revised financial estimates.

ModivCare Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

ModivCare (MODV) is a leading technology-enabled healthcare services company that provides non-emergency medical transportation (NEMT), personal and home care, and nutritional meal delivery services. The company operates primarily in the United States and focuses on improving access to care for underserved populations, particularly for those who face transportation and other logistical barriers to healthcare access. ModivCare partners with state governments, managed care organizations, and healthcare providers to facilitate seamless healthcare services and enhance patient outcomes.

How the Company Makes Money

ModivCare makes money through a diversified revenue model that includes contracts with government agencies, managed care organizations (MCOs), and healthcare providers. Its primary revenue stream comes from its non-emergency medical transportation (NEMT) services, where it coordinates and provides transportation for patients who need to travel to medical appointments but lack reliable means of transportation. This service is often funded through Medicaid, Medicare Advantage, and other state-sponsored programs. Additionally, ModivCare generates income from its personal and home care services, which offer in-home support for daily activities to individuals with chronic conditions or disabilities. The company also derives revenue from its nutritional meal delivery services, which cater to individuals requiring specific dietary plans due to medical conditions. Key partnerships with healthcare providers and payers enhance its service offerings and contribute significantly to its earnings.

ModivCare Financial Statement Overview

Summary

ModivCare faces significant financial challenges with declining profitability, high leverage, and poor cash generation. These issues highlight the need for strategic changes to improve financial health.

Income Statement

The company has experienced declining profitability with a negative net profit margin and EBIT margin for the latest period, indicating operational challenges. Revenue growth has stagnated, with only a slight increase from the previous year, highlighting a lack of upward trajectory.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows high leverage, with a negative stockholders' equity, reflecting financial instability and potential risk. Debt-to-equity ratio is extremely concerning due to negative equity, and the equity ratio is poor, indicating a weak financial structure.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow and free cash flow are negative, reflecting poor cash generation and significant cash outflows. The free cash flow to net income ratio is not calculable due to negative figures, indicating a challenging cash flow situation.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
2.79B	2.75B	2.50B	2.00B	1.37B
	Gross Profit
2.79B	446.95M	472.32M	412.59M	289.88M
	EBIT
-92.79M	-139.95M	57.08M	89.77M	123.16M
	EBITDA
4.88M	-23.33M	157.50M	146.77M	148.22M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-201.28M	-204.46M	-1.84M	31.96M	88.84M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
112.58M	2.22M	14.45M	133.14M	183.28M
	Total Assets
1.65B	1.77B	1.94B	2.03B	1.43B
	Total Debt
315.77M	1.14B	1.02B	1.02B	517.74M
	Net Debt
203.19M	1.14B	1.01B	886.48M	334.46M
	Total Liabilities
1.69B	1.61B	1.59B	1.65B	1.01B
	Stockholders Equity
-38.47M	156.19M	354.56M	373.27M	411.61M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-34.04M	-125.26M	-43.45M	165.52M	336.29M
	Operating Cash Flow
-6.41M	-82.97M	-10.44M	186.84M	348.44M
	Investing Cash Flow
-27.63M	-42.29M	-111.81M	-685.63M	-635.01M
	Financing Cash Flow
144.37M	113.07M	3.81M	448.85M	408.26M

ModivCare Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 1.40
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MODV, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.4 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.41, below the 50-day MA of 4.04, and below the 200-day MA of 15.56, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.85 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 23.15 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 1.87 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MODV.

ModivCare Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
EHC	72 Outperform	$10.15B	22.60	24.52%	0.64%	11.91%	28.47%
CHE	70 Outperform	$8.87B	30.46	27.12%	0.31%	7.37%	11.17%
AMED	66 Neutral	$3.04B	71.19	3.93%	―	5.01%	―
ADUS	64 Neutral	$1.77B	22.98	8.78%	―	9.06%	10.68%
HCSG	64 Neutral	$760.60M	19.40	8.25%	―	2.65%	3.34%
Sector *	49 Neutral	$6.85B	0.81	-52.91%	2.50%	19.94%	1.20%
MODV	33 Underperform	$20.00M	―	-341.96%	―	1.32%	1.95%

ModivCare Corporate Events

ModivCare Adjusts Meeting Date for Financial Transparency

On February 28, 2025, Modivcare announced its plan to adjourn its special stockholders meeting from March 3 to March 13, 2025, to allow for the release of its fourth quarter and full year 2024 financial results before the meeting. The record date for voting remains unchanged, and previously submitted proxies will still be valid unless revoked. This decision ensures transparency and informed decision-making for stakeholders, aligning financial disclosures with shareholder engagement.

ModivCare Board Member Garth Graham Resigns

On February 23, 2025, Garth Graham resigned from the Board of Directors of ModivCare Inc., effective February 28, 2025. His departure was not due to any disagreement with the company. Leslie Norwalk, Chair of the Board, acknowledged Graham’s significant contributions, particularly in addressing social determinants of health, and expressed gratitude for his service.

ModivCare Appoints Erin Russell as New Director

On February 10, 2025, Modivcare Inc. appointed Erin Russell as a new independent director to its board, as part of a strategic move to enhance its board’s expertise and comply with credit agreement obligations. Her extensive experience in healthcare and financial sectors is expected to support the company’s growth and transformation. Concurrently, Neal Goldman resigned from the board on February 13, 2025, with his departure not linked to any company disagreements. These changes are part of Modivcare’s ongoing efforts to refresh its board and align with its strategic goals.

ModivCare Secures Financing and Strengthens Leadership Team

Modivcare Inc. announced it has secured $105 million in additional financing through a $75 million incremental term loan and a $30 million commitment from Coliseum Capital Management to purchase new second lien senior notes. These financial moves, alongside the appointment of Chad Shandler as Chief Transformation Officer and the upcoming addition of three new board directors, aim to strengthen the company’s financial foundation, improve operational performance, and support long-term strategic growth.