Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY) Risk Analysis

Magnolia depends on the services of its senior management and technical personnel. Magnolia does not maintain, nor does Magnolia plan to obtain, any insurance against the loss of any of these individuals. The loss of the services of its senior management could have a material adverse effect on Magnolia's business, financial condition, and results of operations.

Magnolia is not insured against all risks. Losses and liabilities arising from uninsured and underinsured events could materially and adversely affect its business, financial condition, or results of operations. Magnolia's development activities are subject to all of the operating risks associated with drilling for and producing oil and natural gas, including the possibility of environmental hazards, such as uncontrollable releases of oil, natural gas, brine, well fluids, toxic gas, or other pollution into the environment, including groundwater, air, and shoreline contamination, or the presence of endangered or threatened species; abnormally pressured formations; mechanical difficulties, such as stuck oilfield drilling and service tools and casing collapse; fires, explosions, and ruptures of pipelines; personal injuries and death; natural disasters; and terrorist attacks targeting oil and natural gas related facilities and infrastructure. Events that could adversely affect Magnolia's ability to conduct operations or result in substantial loss as a result of claims include injury or loss of life, damage to and destruction of property, natural resources, and equipment, pollution and other environmental damage, regulatory investigations and penalties, and repair and remediation costs. Magnolia may elect not to obtain insurance for any or all of these risks if it believes that the cost of available insurance is excessive relative to the risks presented. In addition, pollution and environmental risks generally are not fully insurable. The occurrence of an event that is not fully covered by insurance could have a material adverse effect on Magnolia's business, financial condition, and results of operations.

Magnolia's ability to acquire additional prospects to complement or expand the Company's current business and to find and develop reserves in the future will depend on its ability to evaluate and select suitable properties for acquisitions and to consummate transactions in a highly competitive environment for acquiring properties, marketing oil and natural gas, and securing trained personnel. However, there is no guarantee that Magnolia will be able to identify attractive acquisition opportunities. In the event it is able to identify attractive acquisition opportunities, Magnolia may not be able to complete the acquisition or do so on commercially acceptable terms. Competition for capital available for investment in the oil and gas industry, specifically for acquisitions, may also increase the cost of, or cause Magnolia to refrain from, completing acquisitions. Many other oil and gas companies possess and employ greater financial, technical, and personnel resources than Magnolia. Those companies may be able to pay more for productive properties and exploratory prospects and to evaluate, bid for, and purchase a greater number of properties and prospects than Magnolia's financial or personnel resources permit. Magnolia may not be able to compete successfully in the future in acquiring prospective reserves, developing reserves, marketing hydrocarbons, attracting and retaining quality personnel, and raising additional capital, which could have a material adverse effect on its business.

The oil and gas industry is characterized by rapid and significant technological advancement and the introduction of new products and services using new technologies. As others use or develop new technologies, Magnolia may be placed at a competitive disadvantage or may be forced by competitive pressures to implement those new technologies at substantial cost. In addition, other oil and gas companies may have greater financial, technical, and personnel resources that allow them to enjoy technological advantages and that may in the future allow them to implement new technologies before Magnolia can. Magnolia may not be able to respond to these competitive pressures or implement new technologies on a timely basis or at an acceptable cost. If one or more of the technologies it expects to use were to become obsolete, Magnolia's business, financial condition, or results of operations could be materially and adversely affected.

Magnolia relies heavily on its information systems, and the availability and integrity of these systems is essential to conducting Magnolia's business and operations. Cyber security risks, including phishing-attacks, unauthorized access, malicious software, data exfiltration, data privacy breaches by employees or others with authorized access, ransomware, and other cyber security issues could compromise computer and telecommunications systems and result in disruptions to the Company's business operations or the access, disclosure, or loss of Company data and proprietary information. Additionally, as a producer of oil and natural gas, Magnolia faces various security threats that could render its information or systems unusable, and threats to the security of its facilities and infrastructure or the facilities and infrastructure of third parties, such as gathering and processing and other facilities, refineries and pipelines, or third party technology cloud providers. If any of these security breaches were to occur, they could lead to losses of, or damage to, sensitive information, facilities, infrastructure, and systems essential to Magnolia's business and operations, as well as data corruption, communication interruptions, or other disruptions to its operations, which, in turn, could have a material adverse effect on its business, financial position, results of operations, and cash flows. Magnolia's implementation of various procedures and controls to monitor and mitigate such security threats and to increase security for its information, systems, facilities, and infrastructure may result in increased costs. Moreover, there can be no assurance that such procedures and controls will be sufficient to prevent security breaches from occurring.

Magnolia is in an industry that has experienced inflationary pressures on operating costs - namely fuel, steel (i.e., wellbore tubulars and facilities manufactured using steel), labor, and drilling and completion services. Although for many years, inflation in the United States had been relatively low, there was a significant increase in inflation beginning in the second half of 2021, which has continued into 2023, due to a substantial increase in money supply, a stimulative fiscal policy, a significant rebound in consumer demand as COVID-19 restrictions were relaxed, the Russia-Ukraine war and worldwide supply chain disruptions resulting from the economic contraction caused by COVID-19 and lockdowns followed by a rapid recovery. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, inflation rose to a peak of 9.1% in June 2022, and has since decreased to 3.4% as of December 2023. While supply chain disruptions and inflation have not materially affected Magnolia's operating results to date, if Magnolia is unable to work with its suppliers to limit or prevent increases in its costs of operations, it could adversely affect its operating results. In addition, any projected future decreases in Magnolia's operating results due to inflation could adversely affect Magnolia's future business, financial condition, results of operations, liquidity, and ability to finance planned capital expenditures.

The threat of climate change continues to attract considerable attention globally. In the United States, no comprehensive climate change legislation regulating the emission of GHGs or directly imposing a price on carbon has been implemented at the federal level. However, President Biden has highlighted addressing climate change as a priority of his administration, and federal regulators, state and local governments, and private parties have taken (or announced that they plan to take) actions that have or may have a significant influence on the Company's operations. In December 2023, the EPA published a final rule to strengthen the existing emissions reduction requirements in Subpart OOOOa, expand reduction requirements for new, modified and reconstructed oil and natural gas sources in Subpart OOOOb, and impose methane emissions limitations on existing oil and natural gas sources nationwide for the first time. In addition, the final rule establishes "Emissions Guidelines," creating a Subpart OOOOc that requires states to develop plans to reduce methane emissions from existing sources that must be at least as effective as presumptive standards set by the EPA. The final rule also creates a new third-party monitoring program to flag large emissions events, referred to as "super emitters". Notably, the EPA imposed a December 6, 2022 applicability date for Subparts OOOOb and OOOOc, meaning that sources constructed prior to that date will be considered existing sources with later compliance dates. The final rule gives states, along with federal tribes that wish to regulate existing sources, two years to develop and submit their plans for reducing methane emissions from existing sources. The final emissions guidelines under Subpart OOOOc provide three years from the plan submission deadline for existing sources to comply. Additionally, in August 2022, President Biden signed into law the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. Among other things, the Inflation Reduction Act includes a methane emissions reduction program that amends the Clean Air Act to include a Methane Emissions and Waste Reduction Incentive Program for petroleum and natural gas systems. This program requires the EPA to impose a "waste emissions charge" on certain oil and gas sources that are already required to report emissions under EPA's Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program. To implement the program, the Inflation Reduction Act required revisions to GHG reporting regulations for petroleum and natural gas systems (Subpart W) by 2024. In July 2023, the EPA proposed to expand the scope of the Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program for petroleum and natural gas facilities, as required by the Inflation Reduction Act. Among other things, the proposed rule expands the emissions events that are subject to reporting requirements to include "other large release events" and applies reporting requirements to certain new sources and sectors. The rule is currently scheduled to be finalized in the spring of 2024 and is expected to take effect on January 1, 2025, in advance of the deadline for GHG reporting for 2024 (March 2025). In January 2024, the EPA proposed a rule implementing the Inflation Reduction Act's methane emissions charge. The proposed rule includes potential methodologies for calculating the amount by which a facility's reported methane emissions are below or exceed the waste emissions thresholds and contemplates approaches for implementing certain exemptions created by the Inflation Reduction Act. The methane emissions charge imposed under the Methane Emissions and Waste Reduction Incentive Program for 2024 would be $900 per ton emitted over annual methane emissions thresholds, and would increase to $1,200 in 2025, and $1,500 in 2026. As a result of these regulatory changes, the scope of any final methane regulations or the costs for complying with federal methane regulations are uncertain. Separately, a number of states have developed programs that are aimed at reducing GHG emissions by means of cap and trade programs, carbon taxes, or encouraging the use of renewable energy or alternative low-carbon fuels. Cap and trade programs typically require major sources of GHG emissions to acquire and surrender emission allowances in return for emitting those GHGs. In addition, efforts have been made and continue to be made in the international community toward the adoption of international treaties or protocols that would address global climate change issues. For example, pursuant to the terms of the Paris Agreement, the United States has committed to reducing its GHG emissions by at least 50% below 2005 levels by 2030. In addition, at the 26th conference of parties ("COP26") in September 2021, the United States and the European Union jointly announced the Global Methane Pledge, a pact that aims to reduce global methane emissions at least 30% below 2020 levels by 2030, including "all feasible reductions" in the energy sector. COP26 concluded with the finalization of the Glasgow Climate Pact, which stated long-term global goals (including those in the Paris Agreement) to limit the increase in the global average temperature and emphasized reductions in GHG emissions. At the 27th conference of parties in November 2022, President Biden announced the EPA's supplemental proposed rule to reduce methane emissions from existing oil and gas sources (discussed above), and agreed, in conjunction with the European Union and a number of other partner countries, to develop standards for monitoring and reporting methane emissions to help create a market for low methane-intensity natural gas, and at the 28th conference of parties in December 2023, the Biden administration announced the final methane rule (discussed above). In addition, nearly 200 countries, including the United States, agreed to transition away from fossil fuels while accelerating action in this decade to achieve net zero GHG emissions by 2050. To the extent that governmental entities in the United States or other countries implement or impose climate change regulations on the oil and gas industry, it could have a material adverse effect on the Company's business, including by restricting Magnolia's ability to execute on its business strategy, requiring additional capital, compliance, operating and maintenance costs, increasing the cost of Magnolia's products and services, reducing demand for its products and services, reducing its access to financial markets, or creating greater potential for governmental investigations or litigation. Furthermore, climate change-related developments may result in negative perceptions of the traditional oil and gas industry and, in turn, reputational risks associated with exploration and production activities. Negative public perception regarding the Company and/or its industry resulting from, among other things, concerns raised by advocacy groups about climate change, emissions, hydraulic fracturing, seismicity, or oil spills may lead to increased litigation risk and regulatory, legislative and judicial scrutiny, which may, in turn, lead to new state and federal safety and environmental laws, regulations, guidelines and enforcement interpretations. These actions may cause operational delays or restrictions, increased operating costs, additional regulatory burdens and increased risk of litigation. Moreover, governmental authorities exercise considerable discretion in the timing and scope of permit issuance and the public may engage in the permitting process, including through intervention in the courts. Negative public perception could cause the permits Magnolia needs to conduct the Company's operations to be withheld, delayed, or burdened by requirements that restrict the Company's ability to profitably conduct the Company's business. In addition, various officials and candidates at the federal, state, and local levels, have made climate-related pledges or proposed banning hydraulic fracturing altogether. More broadly, the enactment of climate change-related policies and initiatives across the market at the corporate level and/or investor community level may in the future result in increases in the Company's compliance costs and other operating costs and have other adverse effects (e.g., greater potential for governmental investigations or litigation, driving down demand for the Company's products, or stimulating demand for alternative forms of energy that do not rely on combustion of fossil fuels). Increasing attention from governmental and regulatory bodies, investors, consumers, industry, and other stakeholders on combating climate change, together with changes in consumer and industrial/commercial behavior, societal expectations on companies to address climate change, investor and societal expectations regarding voluntary climate-related disclosures, preferences and attitudes with respect to the generation and consumption of energy, the use of hydrocarbons, and the use of products manufactured with, or powered by, hydrocarbons, may result in the enactment of climate change-related regulations, policies and initiatives (at the government, regulator, corporate and/or investor community levels), including alternative energy requirements, new fuel consumption standards, energy conservation and emissions reductions measures and responsible energy development; technological advances with respect to the generation, transmission, storage and consumption of energy (including advances in wind, solar and hydrogen power, as well as battery technology); increased availability of, and increased demand from consumers and industry for, energy sources other than oil and natural gas (including wind, solar, nuclear, and geothermal sources as well as electric vehicles); and development of, and increased demand from consumers and industry for, lower-emission products and services (including electric vehicles and renewable residential and commercial power supplies), as well as more efficient products and services. These developments may in the future adversely affect the demand for products manufactured with, or powered by, petroleum products, as well as the demand for, and in turn the prices of, the products that Magnolia sells. Such developments may also adversely impact, among other things, the Company's stock price and access to capital markets, and the availability of necessary third-party services and facilities, which may increase the Company's operational costs and adversely affect the Company's ability to successfully carry out the Company's business strategy. Climate change-related developments may also impact the market prices of or the Company's access to raw materials such as energy and water and therefore result in increased costs to the Company's business. Concern over climate change has also resulted in political risks in the United States, including climate-related pledges by certain candidates now in public office. Litigation risks are also increasing, as a number of cities and other local governments have sought to bring suit against the largest oil and gas companies in state or federal court, alleging, among other things, that such companies created public nuisances by producing fuels that contributed to climate change or alleging that the companies have been aware of the adverse effects of climate change for some time but failed to adequately disclose such impacts to their investors or customers. Private individuals or public entities may seek to enforce environmental laws and regulations against the Company and could allege personal injury, property damages or other liabilities. While the Company's business is not a party to any such litigation, Magnolia could be named in actions making similar allegations. An unfavorable ruling in any such case could significantly impact the Company's operations and could have an adverse impact on the Company's financial condition. Negative perceptions regarding the Company's industry and reputational risks, including perceptions regarding the sufficiency of the Company's ESG program (which may include policies, practices, and extralegal objectives related to climate change, environmental stewardship, social responsibility, and corporate governance), may also in the future adversely affect the Company's ability to successfully carry out the Company's business strategy by adversely affecting its access to capital. There have been efforts in recent years, for example, to influence the investment community, including investment advisors, insurance companies, and certain sovereign wealth, pension and endowment funds and other groups, by promoting divestment of fossil fuel equities and pressuring lenders to limit funding and insurance underwriters to limit coverages to companies engaged in the extraction of fossil fuel reserves. Certain financial institutions and members of the investment community have shifted and others may elect in the future to shift some or all of their investment into non-fossil fuel related sectors. There is also a risk that financial institutions may be required to adopt policies that have the effect of reducing the funding provided to the fossil fuel sector. Certain investment banks and asset managers based both domestically and internationally have announced that they are adopting climate change guidelines for their banking and investing activities. Institutional lenders who provide financing to energy companies such as the Company have also become more attentive to sustainable lending practices, and some may elect not to provide traditional energy producers or companies that support such producers with funding. Ultimately, this could make it more difficult to secure funding for exploration and production activities or adversely impact the cost of capital for both the Company and its customers, and could thereby adversely affect the demand and price of the Company's securities. Lower equity returns in the sector versus other industry sectors may lead to lower oil and natural gas representation in certain key equity market indices. Limitation of investments in and financings for energy companies could also result in the restriction, delay, or cancellation of infrastructure projects and energy production activities. Additionally, shareholder activism has been recently increasing in the oil and gas industry, and shareholders may attempt to effect changes to Magnolia's business or governance, whether by shareholder proposals, public campaigns, proxy solicitations, or otherwise. Such actions could adversely impact the Company's business by distracting management and other personnel from their primary responsibilities, require the Company to incur increased costs, and/or result in reputational harm. Activist shareholders have introduced proposals that may seek to force companies to adopt aggressive emission reduction targets or to shift away from more carbon-intensive industries. As noted above, activists may also pursue other means of curtailing oil and natural gas operations, such as through litigation. Such developments, including environmental activism and initiatives aimed at limiting climate change and reducing air pollution, could result in downward pressure on the stock prices of oil and gas companies, including Magnolia's. This may also potentially result in a reduction of available capital funding for potential development projects, impacting the Company's future financial results. Magnolia's assets are located in areas that may be prone to severe weather events, due to climate change or otherwise, including hurricanes, winter storms, floods, and major tropical storms. These events could adversely affect or delay demand for the Company's products or cause the Company to incur significant costs in preparing for, or responding to, the effects thereof. Energy needs could increase or decrease as a result of weather conditions, depending on the duration and magnitude of any such weather events, and adversely impact Magnolia's operating costs or revenues. To the extent the frequency of extreme weather events increases, due to climate change or otherwise, this could impact operations in various ways, including damage to or disruption of operations at the Company's facilities, increased insurance premiums or increases to the cost of providing service, reduced availability of electrical power, road accessibility, and transportation facilities, as well as impacts on personnel, supply chain, distribution chain or customers. Any of these effects could have an adverse effect on the Company's assets and operations. The Company's ability to mitigate the physical impacts of adverse weather conditions depends in part upon its emergency preparedness and response along with its business continuity planning. See "Magnolia's producing properties are predominantly located in South Texas, making Magnolia vulnerable to risks associated with operating in a limited geographic area."