Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $5.73B
• Dividend Yield: 2.74%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.32M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.72
• Revenue Growth: 0.68%
• EPS Growth: -11.13%
• Country: US
• Employees: 252
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 0.37
• Shares Outstanding: 180,882,430
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,507,737
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,322,791
• PEG Ratio: -1.28
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.09
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.10
• P/FCF Ratio: 9.93
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.00
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.36
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 9.21
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 6.51
• 1Y Price Target: $30.36
• Price Target Upside: -1.30% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 16
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.88
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.36B

• Rating: 75 Outperform
• Price Target: $35.00 ▲(13.78% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/09/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/09/26

MGY’s score is driven primarily by solid profitability/cash generation and improved leverage, alongside constructive price trend signals. The main offsets are weakening recent revenue/FCF momentum and elevated technical momentum readings, while valuation and a shareholder-return-focused 2026 outlook provide moderate support.

Positive Factors

High margins & profitability

Sustained high operating and net margins (TTM ~49% and ~26%) plus strong operating cash flow imply durable unit economics and earnings quality. This supports reinvestment, shareholder returns, and resilience across commodity cycles when operational performance holds.

Improved leverage & liquidity

Material deleveraging (debt-to-equity down to ~0.21) and sizable available liquidity (~$717M total) reduce balance-sheet risk and increase financial flexibility. That supports capital returns, opportunistic M&A, and ability to ride prolonged price downturns without distress.

Low F&D costs & reserve additions

Low finding & development costs (~$9.25/BOE) and large organic proved-developed additions (~50 MMboe) indicate efficient capital deployment and reserve sustainability. This supports long-term production maintenance and attractive returns on incremental spending.

Negative Factors

Fully unhedged commodity exposure

Operating with no hedges increases long-term cash‑flow and earnings volatility versus peers that hedge. Extended commodity price downturns could quickly erode free cash flow and constrain dividends, buybacks, or growth even if operational metrics remain strong.

Sharp revenue & FCF weakening

A large TTM revenue decline and sharply negative recent free‑cash‑flow growth reduce headroom for reinvestment and returns. If sustained, this trend can force tighter capex or payout cuts and magnifies capital allocation risk amid cyclicality.

Competitive/pricier M&A market

A pricier, competitive M&A market restricts cost‑efficient reserve additions via buyouts, forcing smaller bolt‑ons or organic growth. That limits scale-up opportunities and can slow production growth or raise returns risk on acquisitions over the medium term.

Magnolia Oil & Gas Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation engages in the acquisition, development, exploration, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids reserves in the United States. Its properties are located primarily in Karnes County and the Giddings Field in South Texas principally comprising the Eagle Ford Shale and the Austin Chalk formation. As of December 31, 2021, the company's assets consisted of a total leasehold position of 4,71,263 net acres, including 23,785 net acres in Karnes and 4,47,478 net acres in the Giddings area, as well as holds 1,292 net wells with a total production capacity of 66.0 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day. The company was incorporated in 2017 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Magnolia Oil & Gas makes money by producing and selling hydrocarbons—crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs)—from wells it drills and operates (and from non-operated working interests where applicable). Revenue is primarily generated when produced volumes are delivered into gathering/transportation systems and sold to purchasers at market-based prices (often tied to benchmarks for oil and gas, adjusted for local basis differentials and quality). Key revenue streams include: (1) Oil sales: typically the largest driver when oil volumes and oil prices are strong; (2) Natural gas sales: monetization of produced gas, with realized pricing affected by regional market conditions and transportation; (3) NGL sales: liquids such as ethane, propane, and butane separated from gas streams and sold, with pricing linked to NGL market benchmarks. Earnings are influenced by production volumes, realized commodity prices, and operating/capital costs. Significant factors affecting profitability include well performance and decline rates, drilling and completion efficiency, lease operating expenses, midstream fees for gathering/processing/transport, production taxes, and hedging activity (if used) that can stabilize or alter realized pricing and cash flows. The company also may generate limited ancillary income from arrangements such as joint/working-interest structures and other oil-and-gas-related revenue items; if material, these are typically much smaller than commodity sales.

Magnolia Oil & Gas Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability and cash generation are solid (TTM gross margin ~49%, net margin ~26%, and strong operating cash flow), and leverage has improved materially (debt-to-equity down to ~0.21 in 2024). Offsets include sharp TTM revenue and free-cash-flow weakening versus prior periods and some TTM balance-sheet data inconsistency that reduces confidence in point-in-time figures.

Income Statement

MGY’s profitability profile is strong in recent periods, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross margin around 49% and net margin around 26%, indicating healthy operating economics. However, growth has turned negative, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue down ~68% versus the prior period, and margins have compressed versus the 2021–2022 peak levels. Results also show commodity-cycle sensitivity (e.g., large losses in 2020 followed by outsized profitability in 2021–2022), which increases earnings volatility risk.

Balance Sheet

Leverage appears conservative overall: debt-to-equity has improved materially from ~0.71 (2020) to ~0.21 (2024), signaling a stronger capital structure and lower balance-sheet risk. Total assets have also grown steadily over time. That said, TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) balance-sheet fields show $0 for total debt and equity while still reporting a debt-to-equity ratio, which suggests data inconsistency in the latest snapshot and limits confidence in point-in-time TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) balance-sheet detail.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is solid: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow of ~$879M is strong and exceeds accounting earnings (operating cash flow to net income ~2.8x), supporting earnings quality. Free cash flow remains positive at ~$393M, but free cash flow conversion is moderate (free cash flow to net income ~0.46) and recent free cash flow growth is sharply negative in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), pointing to increased reinvestment, working-capital swings, or softer cash realization versus prior years.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.31B	1.32B	1.23B	1.69B	1.08B
Gross Profit	612.67M	680.69M	702.37M	1.26B	742.76M
EBITDA	883.59M	922.00M	874.63M	1.32B	796.60M
Net Income	325.25M	366.03M	388.30M	893.84M	417.28M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.90B	2.82B	2.76B	2.57B	1.75B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	266.79M	260.05M	401.12M	675.44M	366.98M
Total Debt	419.56M	410.31M	409.55M	399.20M	397.26M
Total Liabilities	903.92M	853.51M	873.55M	832.39M	701.49M
Stockholders Equity	1.94B	1.91B	1.69B	1.58B	816.76M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	409.16M	431.74M	430.90M	831.55M	552.05M
Operating Cash Flow	878.64M	920.85M	855.79M	1.30B	788.48M
Investing Cash Flow	-540.75M	-655.12M	-814.90M	-518.89M	-243.44M
Financing Cash Flow	-331.16M	-406.80M	-315.21M	-469.34M	-370.61M

Magnolia Oil & Gas Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 30.76
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MGY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 30.76 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 28.84, above the 50-day MA of 26.41, and above the 200-day MA of 23.82, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.12 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 77.39 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.12 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MGY.

Magnolia Oil & Gas Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CRC	76 Outperform	$5.63B	10.72	10.34%	3.56%	33.85%	-34.08%
MGY	75 Outperform	$5.73B	12.49	16.76%	2.74%	0.68%	-11.13%
SM	74 Outperform	$7.16B	3.32	14.00%	4.38%	34.93%	-11.85%
VIST	71 Outperform	$6.83B	6.91	37.31%	―	50.79%	32.97%
CNX	66 Neutral	$5.76B	6.35	15.52%	―	43.30%	-43.07%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
MUR	65 Neutral	$5.53B	42.92	2.03%	4.15%	-13.92%	-68.34%

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporate Events

Magnolia Oil & Gas Posts 2025 Results, Boosts Shareholder Returns

On February 5, 2026, Magnolia Oil & Gas reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, showing lower net income and adjusted EBITDAX versus 2024 despite strong production growth and disciplined capital spending. Net income fell 20% in the fourth quarter and 15% for the full year to $71.4 million and $337.3 million, respectively, while average daily production rose 11% for both the quarter and the year, reaching a record 103.8 Mboe/d in Q4 and 99.8 Mboe/d for 2025, driven largely by 16% growth at the Giddings area and record oil output. The company generated $878.6 million in operating cash flow and $426.6 million in free cash flow in 2025, reinvesting about half of adjusted EBITDAX into drilling and completions while adding 49.8 MMboe of organic proved developed reserves, achieving a 137% reserve replacement ratio at low finding and development costs. Magnolia intensified its shareholder return strategy by repurchasing 8.9 million Class A shares in 2025, cutting diluted share count by 4.4%, securing board approval for an expanded buyback authorization, and lifting its quarterly dividend by 10% for the fifth consecutive year, while finishing 2025 with slightly higher cash on hand and an undrawn credit facility, underscoring a commitment to capital discipline and sustained cash returns even amid softer earnings.

The most recent analyst rating on (MGY) stock is a Buy with a $27.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Magnolia Oil & Gas stock, see the MGY Stock Forecast page.