CarMax (KMX) Risk Analysis

The price of our common stock may be subject to wide fluctuations based upon our operating results, general economic and market conditions, general trends and prospects for our industry, announcements by our competitors, our ability to achieve any long-term targets or performance metrics and other factors. In addition, the market price of our common stock may also be affected by whether we meet analysts' expectations. Failure to meet such expectations could have a material adverse effect on the price of our common stock. Following periods of volatility in the market price of a company's securities, securities class action litigation is more likely. If litigation were instituted against us, it could result in substantial costs and a diversion of our attention and resources, which could have a material adverse effect on our business.

The preparation of our financial statements requires us to make estimates and assumptions affecting the reported amounts of CarMax's assets, liabilities, revenues, expenses and earnings. If these estimates or assumptions are incorrect, it could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations or financial condition. We have identified several accounting policies as being "critical" to the fair presentation of our financial condition and results of operations because they involve major aspects of our business and require us to make judgments about matters that are inherently uncertain.  These policies are described in Item 7. Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations, and the notes to consolidated financial statements included in Item 8. Consolidated Financial Statements and Supplementary Data. The implementation of new accounting requirements or other changes to GAAP could have a material adverse effect on our reported results of operations and financial condition.

Protecting our intellectual property (including patents, trademarks, copyrights, confidential information and trade secrets) is integral to our business. The failure to protect our intellectual property, including from unauthorized uses, can erode consumer trust and our brand value and have a material adverse effect on our business.

We collect, process and retain sensitive and confidential customer information in the normal course of business and may share that information with our third-party service providers.  This information includes the information customers provide when purchasing a vehicle and applying for vehicle financing.  We also collect, process and retain sensitive and confidential associate information in the normal course of business and may share that information with our third-party service providers.  Although we have taken measures designed to safeguard such information and have received assurances from our third-party providers, our facilities and systems, and those of third-party providers, could be vulnerable to external or internal security breaches, acts of vandalism, computer viruses, misplaced or lost data, programming or human errors or other similar events. The security measures we have implemented to protect against cybersecurity incidents may not always prevent or mitigate the impact of a cybersecurity incident and there can be no assurance that future efforts to prevent or mitigate a cybersecurity incident will be effective either. Numerous national retailers have disclosed security breaches involving sophisticated cyber-attacks, including ransomware, that were not recognized or detected until after such retailers had been affected, notwithstanding the preventive measures such retailers had in place.  Further, the rapid evolution and increased adoption of artificial intelligence technologies may increase our level of cybersecurity risk. Any security breach involving the misappropriation, loss or other unauthorized disclosure of confidential customer or associate information, whether experienced by us or by our third-party service providers, and whether due to an external cybersecurity incident, a programming error, or other cause, could damage our reputation, expose us to mitigation costs and the risks of private litigation and government enforcement, disrupt our business and otherwise have a material adverse effect on our business, sales and results of operations.  In addition, our failure to respond quickly and appropriately to such a security breach could exacerbate the consequences of the breach. We are subject to numerous and rapidly changing federal, state, and local laws and regulations regarding privacy, cybersecurity, and the collection, use, and disclosure of sensitive confidential information. If we fail to comply with these laws and regulations or future applicable laws and regulations, we could suffer reputational harm and disruption to our business, and be subject to significant litigation, monetary damages, regulatory enforcement actions, or fines. See the risk factor below titled "We operate in a highly regulated industry and are subject to a wide range of federal, state and local laws and regulations. Changes in these laws and regulations, or our failure to comply, could have a material adverse effect on our business, sales, results of operations and financial condition" for the risks associated with failure to comply with these laws and regulations.

We are subject to various litigation matters from time to time, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.  Claims arising out of actual or alleged violations of law could be asserted against us by individuals, either individually or through class claims, or by governmental entities in civil or criminal investigations and proceedings.  These claims could be asserted under a variety of laws including, but not limited to, consumer finance laws, consumer protection laws, intellectual property laws, privacy laws, labor and employment laws, securities laws, employee benefit laws, tax laws and environmental laws.  These actions could expose us to adverse publicity and to substantial monetary damages and legal defense costs, injunctive relief and criminal and civil fines and penalties including, but not limited to, suspension or revocation of licenses to conduct business.

We have communicated certain environmental goals in our public disclosures which may be difficult to achieve. The accuracy, adequacy or completeness of the disclosures may subject us to scrutiny. Further, statements about our environmental goals, and progress toward those goals, may be based on standards for measuring progress that are still developing, and such statements may be subject to evolving, forthcoming and altogether new disclosure requirements. If we are unable to achieve progress with respect to our environmental goals, accomplish our environmental goals or satisfy evolving shareholder expectations or industry standards, we could suffer reputational harm. Our environmental data, processes, and disclosure may be incomplete or inaccurate, which may result in civil penalties and have a material adverse effect on our business, sales and results of operations.

The occurrence of severe weather events, such as rain, flooding, hail, snow, wind, storms, hurricanes, extended periods of unusually cold weather or natural disasters, could cause store closures or affect the timing of consumer demand, either of which could adversely affect consumer traffic and could have a material adverse effect on our sales and results of operations in a given period. Further, as the Earth's climate changes, extreme weather events could become more frequent or more intense, which could have a material adverse effect on our sales and results of operations.

Automotive retailing is a highly competitive and highly fragmented business.  Our competition includes publicly and privately owned new and used car dealers and online and mobile sales platforms, as well as millions of private individuals.  Competitors buy and sell the same or similar makes of vehicles that we offer in the same or similar markets at competitive prices.  New car dealers leverage their franchise relationships with automotive manufacturers to brand certain used cars as "certified pre-owned," which could provide those competitors with an advantage over CarMax. Retail Competition.  Some of our competitors have replicated or attempted to replicate portions of the consumer offer that we pioneered when we opened our first used car store in 1993, including our use of competitive, no-haggle prices and our commitment to buy a customer's vehicle even if they do not purchase one from us. Competitors using online focused business models, both for direct sales and consumer-to-consumer facilitation, could materially impact our business model. Increased online used vehicle offerings and the growing consumer trend of buying vehicles online could make it more difficult for us to differentiate our customer offering from competitors' offerings, could result in lower-than-expected retail margins, and could have a material adverse effect on our business, sales and results of operations. Further, existing e-commerce businesses have and could continue to enter the online new and used vehicle markets, including companies with significantly more resources than CarMax that might be able to provide customers access to a greater inventory of vehicles while delivering a superior online experience. If we fail to respond effectively to our existing and potential retail competitors, it could have a material adverse effect on our business, sales and results of operations. Online Facilitation. In addition, our competitive standing is affected by companies, including search engines and online car marketplaces, that are not direct competitors but that may direct online traffic to the websites of competing automotive retailers.  The increasing activities of these companies could make it more difficult for carmax.com to attract traffic.  These companies could also make it more difficult for CarMax to otherwise market its vehicles online. The increasing use of digital and online tools to facilitate consumers' sales or trade-ins of their current vehicles could have a material adverse effect on our ability to source vehicles through our appraisal process, which in turn could have a material adverse effect on our vehicle acquisition costs and results of operations.  For example, online appraisal tools are available to consumers that generate offers and facilitate purchases by dealers other than CarMax. In addition, there are companies that sell software and data solutions to new and used car dealers to enable those dealers to, among other things, more efficiently source and price inventory.  Although these companies do not compete with CarMax, the increasing use of such products by dealers who compete with CarMax could reduce the relative competitive advantage of CarMax's internally developed proprietary systems. If we fail to respond effectively to competitive pressures or to changes in the used vehicle marketplace, it could have a material adverse effect on our business, sales and results of operations. CAF Competition.  Our CAF segment is subject to competition from various financial institutions, including banks and credit unions, which provide vehicle financing to consumers.  If we were unable to continue providing competitive finance offers to our customers through CAF, it could result in a greater percentage of sales financed through our third-party finance providers, which are generally less profitable to CarMax, or through other outside financing sources.  Moreover, if CAF competitors are able to attract potential customers before they visit CarMax, whether through competitive finance offers or ease of customer experience, they may be directed to retail options other than CarMax.  Accordingly, if CAF was unable to continue making competitive finance offers to our customers, or our finance competitors are able to successfully attract and redirect a disproportionate number of our potential customers, it could have a material adverse effect on our business, sales and results of operations. Evolving Marketplace.  The marketplace for used vehicles may be impacted by the significant, and likely accelerating, changes to the broader automotive industry. Increasing demand for EVs is driving the need to adapt our business to source, recondition and service EVs. Technological changes, including the development of autonomous vehicles, new products and services, new business models, including subscription models, and new methods of travel could reduce automotive retail demand or disrupt our current business model. If we fail to respond effectively to the evolving marketplace, it could have a material adverse effect on our business, sales and results of operations.

Our reputation as a company that is founded on the fundamental principle of integrity is critical to our success. Our reputation as a retailer offering competitive, no-haggle prices, a broad selection of CarMax Quality Certified used vehicles and superior customer service is also critical to our success.  If we fail to maintain the high standards on which our reputation is built, or if an event occurs that damages this reputation, it could adversely affect consumer demand and have a material adverse effect on our business, sales and results of operations.  Such an event could include an isolated incident at a single store, particularly if such incident results in adverse publicity, governmental investigations, or litigation and could involve, among other things, our sales process, our provision of financing, our reconditioning process, our treatment of customers or associates, our use of artificial intelligence, cultural brand positioning, or real or perceived vehicle quality and related injury.  Even the perception of a decrease in the quality of our brand could impact results. The use of social media has increased the speed with which information and opinions can be shared and thus the speed with which reputation can be affected.  We monitor social media and attempt to address customer concerns, provide accurate information and protect our reputation, but there can be no guarantee that our efforts will succeed.  If we fail to correct or mitigate misinformation or negative information, including information spread through social media or traditional media channels, about the vehicles we offer, our customer experience, or any aspect of our brand, it could have a material adverse effect on our business, sales and results of operations.