The following could negatively affect our ability to increase our owned and controlled lot inventory, community count, operational scale and market share, and to grow our business, if at all:
- Lack of available land. Securing sufficient developable land that meets our investment return standards is critical for us to meet our strategic goals and profitably expand our business' scale. Land availability depends on several factors, including geographical/topographical/governmental constraints, sellers' business relationships and reputation within the residential real estate community, and competition from other parties, some of which can bid more for land. Reflecting the housing market slowdown in the 2022 second half and 2023 first quarter, we and other homebuilders reduced land acquisition spending during the period. With market conditions having improved since the 2023 first quarter, we and other homebuilders have increased land investments, pressuring availability and pricing. Whether we increase, decrease or maintain our current pace of land spend, we expect to continue to face competition for desirable land in our served markets in 2024 and beyond, limiting our ability to profitably develop communities and sell homes on such land.
- Supply chain and construction services shortages. Our business relies on a network of suppliers and trade partners to source materials and services to build homes. However, our industry and the U.S. economy have experienced since mid-2020 labor shortages, supply chain constraints and rising and volatile raw material prices and availability, particularly related to building materials and appliances, such as with paint, garage doors, insulation, electrical materials, cabinets, HVAC equipment and water heaters, as well as delays with respect to state and municipal construction permitting, inspections and utility processes. Such constraints, cost pressures and delays have increased our costs, reduced our revenues in particular reporting periods, and in some instances, led to home sales contract cancellations or lower customer satisfaction, and these trends could continue into 2024. In an effort to manage our construction cycle times and deliver homes to our homebuyers, we, among other things, expanded our supplier base and added new construction service providers; worked with our national suppliers to get products and materials, or available temporary or permanent substitutes, delivered, including communicating in real-time with them; ordered items in advance of starting homes; implemented construction process workarounds; simplified our design options and upgrades; paced lot releases to align with our production capacity; and balanced pace, price and construction starts to enhance margins. Although we achieved a meaningful sequential improvement in our construction cycle times in 2023, they remain extended relative to our historical average, and we continue to experience delays in opening communities and delivering homes. We believe these challenging conditions may persist to a certain degree into and potentially throughout 2024, as discussed below under "Outlook." We may also face increased home warranty and construction defect claims associated with replacing or servicing substitute products or materials used in some instances to address supply shortages in certain served markets or communities.
- Insufficient financial resources. Our business needs considerable cash to, among other things, acquire and develop land, build homes and provide customer service. We expect to meet our needs with existing cash, future operational cash flow, our Credit Facility and unsecured letter of credit facility with certain financial institutions ("LOC Facility"), or outside sources, including loans that are specifically obtained for, or secured by, particular communities or other inventory assets, which we refer to as "project financing." However, outside financing may be unavailable, costly and/or considerably dilute stockholders. For instance:
?Tight or volatile capital or financial market conditions may hinder our ability to obtain external financing or performance bonds, or use or expand our Credit Facility and LOC Facility, on favorable terms or at all. Also, if a rating agency downgrades our credit rating or outlook, external financing may be difficult and costly for us to obtain.
?Noncompliance with our Credit Facility, Term Loan and senior notes covenants may restrict our ability to borrow; accelerate repayment of our debt, which may not be feasible for us; or cause our lenders to impose significant fees or cease lending to us.
?As described in Note 15 – Notes Payable in the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements in this report, if a change of control or fundamental change occurs before our senior notes mature, we may need to offer to purchase certain of them. This may require us to refinance or restructure our debt, which we may be unable to do on favorable terms or at all.
?Our debt and ratio of debt to capital levels could require us to dedicate substantial cash flow to debt service; inhibit our ability to respond to business changes or adjust our debt maturity schedule; curb execution on our current strategies; and/or make us more vulnerable in a downturn than our less-leveraged competitors. The Term Loan will mature on August 25, 2026 or earlier under certain circumstances. The Credit Facility will mature on February 18, 2027. Our next senior note maturity is our $300.0 million in aggregate principal amount of 6.875% senior notes due June 15, 2027 ("6.875% Senior Notes due 2027").
?We may not have access to financial resources if there is a failure of the banks or other financial institutions where we have placed cash and cash equivalent deposits or the banks or other financial institutions, or any substitute or additional banks or financial institutions, participating in our Credit Facility or LOC Facility. Under our Credit Facility, non-defaulting lenders are not obligated to cover or acquire a defaulting lender's respective commitment to fund loans or to issue letters of credit, and may not issue additional letters of credit if we do not enter into arrangements to address the risk with respect to the defaulting lender (which may include cash collateral). If the non-defaulting lenders are unable or unwilling to cover or acquire a defaulting lender's respective commitment, potentially due to other demands they face under other credit instruments to which they are party, or because of regulatory restrictions, among other factors, we may not be able to access the Credit Facility's full borrowing or letter of credit capacity to support our business needs. Similarly, if the applicable lender fails to meet its commitment to provide payment guarantees for us under the LOC Facility, we may not be able to access its full issuance capacity to carry out important operational processes. In addition, if a party to the warehouse line of credit and master repurchase agreements KBHS uses to fund mortgage originations fails, or is unable or unwilling to fulfill their obligations, KBHS may be limited in its ability, or unable, to provide mortgage loans to our homebuyers, which may prevent them from closing on their home at the time expected or at all. Also, if there is a failure of the lender of the revolving line of credit to one of our unconsolidated joint ventures for it to finance its land acquisition, development and construction activities, the unconsolidated joint venture may be delayed or unable to complete the project.
- Decreased land inventory value. Our land inventory's value depends on market conditions, including our estimates of applicable future demand and revenue generation. If conditions deteriorate during the typically significant amount of time between our acquiring ownership/control of land and delivering homes on that land; if we cannot sell land held for sale at its estimated fair value; or if we make strategic changes, we may need to record inventory-related charges. We may also record charges if we decide to sell land at a loss or activate or sell land held for future development.
In addition, our business could be negatively affected if our net orders, homes delivered or backlog-to-homes delivered conversion rate fall; if often-volatile building materials prices or construction services costs increase, which has been the trend over the past few years; or if our community openings are delayed due to, among other things, prolonged development from supply chain disruptions, construction services shortages or otherwise, our strategic adjustments, or protracted government approvals or utility service activations from staff or resource cuts or reallocations for public safety priorities (e.g., earthquakes, wildfires, flooding, hurricanes or other natural disasters).
- Trade disputes and defective materials. The federal government has imposed, and may in the future impose, new or increased import tariffs or sanctions, and other countries have implemented retaliatory measures, raising the cost and reducing the supply of several home construction items. For example, the U.S., European Union and other countries have imposed wide-ranging sanctions on Russian business sectors, financial organizations, individuals and raw materials due to the military conflict in Ukraine that, in combination with restrictions caused by the hostilities, contributed to higher costs and shortages of building materials. Military conflicts and other attacks in the Middle East region, including in or near shipping channels, may have a similar impact on the cost and availability of raw or finished building materials and components. In addition, shortages or rising prices of building materials may ensue from manufacturing defects, resulting in recalls of materials. If such disputes continue or recalls occur, our costs and supply chain disruptions, as described above, could increase further.
- Poor contractor availability and performance. Independent contractors perform essentially all of our land development and home construction work. Though we schedule and oversee such activities at our community sites, we have no control over our independent contractors' availability or work methods. If qualified contractors are not available (due to general shortages in a tight labor market, competition from other builders or otherwise), or do not timely perform, we may incur production delays and other inefficiencies, or higher costs for substitute services. Also, if our trade partners' work or materials quality does not meet our standards, we could face more home warranty and construction defect claims, and they or their insurers may not be able to cover the associated repair costs.
- Potential expansion of employment-related obligations. Governmental agencies or others might assert that we should be subjected to California law and associated regulations that, in certain circumstances, impose responsibility upon direct contractors for certain wages and benefits that subcontractors of the direct contractor have failed to pay to their employees. It might also be alleged that California law and regulations impose other liabilities upon us with respect to the employees of our trade partners. Further efforts in California or elsewhere, including a recent National Labor Relations Board proposal for determining joint-employer status under the National Labor Relations Act, to impose such external labor-related obligations on us could create substantial exposure for us in situations beyond our control.