NIPPON EXPRESS HOLDINGS,INC. (9147) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥916.97B
• Dividend Yield: 2.99%
• Average Volume (3M): 920.58K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 356.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.49
• Revenue Growth: 4.96%
• EPS Growth: 1.67%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 76,389
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Integrated Freight & Logistics
• EPS (TTM): -35.21
• Shares Outstanding: 243,000,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 749,370
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 920,576
• PEG Ratio: -3.41
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.01
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.32
• P/FCF Ratio: 5.96
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 229.02
• Revenue Forecast (FY): ¥2.61T

• Rating: 53 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥3,627.00 ▲(9.28% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/18/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/18/26

The score is held back primarily by weakened profitability and a very high P/E multiple, despite solid cash generation. Technicals are moderately constructive with the stock trading above major moving averages and neutral-to-positive momentum signals, but the financial and valuation risks dominate.

Positive Factors

Diversified global logistics platform

Nippon Express operates a multi-modal, global logistics network covering air, ocean, land transport plus contract logistics and supply-chain services. This breadth supports recurring contract revenue, cross-selling, and geographic diversification, helping stabilize volumes and competitive positioning over the medium term.

Consistent operating and free cash generation

Sustained operating and free cash flow across 2023–2025 indicates the business converts revenue and working capital into cash reliably. That cash cushion supports reinvestment in logistics assets, funds dividends and debt service, and provides a buffer during cyclical downturns, enhancing long-term resilience.

Scale and sizable equity base

Large scale—evidenced by a sizable equity base and a ~76k employee footprint—enables network effects, purchasing power, and fixed-cost absorption. Scale supports broad service coverage and long-term customer contracts, strengthening barriers to entry and the firm's ability to compete on integrated logistics solutions.

Negative Factors

Sharply weakened profitability in 2025

A material compression of profitability in 2025, with net income near breakeven, signals structural pressure on margins. Persistently thin mid-single-digit EBITDA margins reduce reinvestment capacity and make earnings more sensitive to volume swings and cost inflation, weakening long-term return generation.

Revenue volatility and negative recent growth

Volatile top-line performance and a ~10.9% recent revenue decline increase forecasting uncertainty and suggest exposure to cyclical trade demand. For a logistics provider, unstable volumes hinder capacity planning, reduce pricing leverage, and can depress long-run utilization and margin stability.

Deteriorating balance-sheet flexibility from rising debt

A meaningful rise in debt alongside falling equity in 2025 reduces financial flexibility, raises interest and refinancing risk, and limits capacity for strategic investments or M&A. Higher leverage also magnifies downside risk in slower demand periods for capital-intensive logistics operations.

NIPPON EXPRESS HOLDINGS,INC. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

NIPPON EXPRESS HOLDINGS, INC. (9147) is a leading global logistics company headquartered in Tokyo, Japan. The company operates in various sectors including freight forwarding, logistics solutions, and supply chain management. NIPPON EXPRESS offers a wide range of services such as air and ocean freight, warehousing, and transportation, catering to diverse industries including automotive, pharmaceuticals, and retail. With a strong international presence, the company leverages its extensive network to provide efficient and reliable logistics services to its clients worldwide.

How the Company Makes Money

NIPPON EXPRESS generates revenue primarily through its logistics and freight forwarding services. Key revenue streams include air freight, ocean freight, and ground transportation services, where the company charges clients based on the volume and distance of goods transported. Additionally, NIPPON EXPRESS offers value-added services such as customs clearance, warehousing, and supply chain management, which contribute to its earnings. Significant partnerships with major carriers and collaborations with various industries enhance its operational capabilities and market reach. The company also benefits from economies of scale, which allow it to optimize costs and improve profitability.

NIPPON EXPRESS HOLDINGS,INC. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Cash flow is a relative strength (solid operating and free cash flow across 2023–2025), but profitability weakened sharply in 2025 and revenue has been volatile. Balance-sheet flexibility also appears to have deteriorated with rising debt and slightly lower equity, keeping the overall financial profile only moderately attractive.

Income Statement

Revenue has been volatile (up in 2024, down in 2023, and essentially flat in 2025), and profitability has compressed materially versus prior years. Net income fell sharply in 2025 (near breakeven relative to revenue), suggesting weaker pricing, higher costs, or non-operating headwinds. Margins were modest even in stronger years (mid-single-digit EBITDA margin in 2024), which limits downside protection in softer demand environments.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks moderate in 2023–2024 (debt roughly in line with equity), and equity is sizable relative to the asset base. However, total debt increased meaningfully in 2025 while equity dipped, which points to weakening balance-sheet flexibility. Returns on equity in 2023–2024 were low-to-mid single digits, implying the company is not currently generating strong shareholder returns for the capital employed.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a relative bright spot: operating cash flow and free cash flow were solid in 2023–2025, indicating the business still converts earnings and working capital into cash through the cycle. That said, free cash flow growth turned negative in 2025 after a strong 2024, highlighting increased volatility in cash outcomes and potentially higher investment or working-capital needs.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.57T	2.58T	2.24T	2.62T	2.35T
Gross Profit	240.66B	221.69B	210.93B	275.85B	202.06B
EBITDA	257.79B	245.42B	233.81B	306.34B	169.05B
Net Income	2.69B	31.73B	37.05B	108.32B	72.07B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.41T	2.30T	2.11T	603.67B	1.62T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	283.39B	352.01B	315.08B	227.00M	193.09B
Total Debt	1.25T	795.93B	734.38B	140.00B	380.32B
Total Liabilities	1.57T	1.42T	1.29T	173.92B	961.26B
Stockholders Equity	829.49B	853.95B	800.06B	429.75B	636.58B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	140.45B	154.87B	118.26B	235.87B	-11.85B
Operating Cash Flow	208.66B	227.87B	185.71B	295.21B	44.02B
Investing Cash Flow	-3.21B	-140.74B	-59.30B	4.02B	101.45B
Financing Cash Flow	-173.94B	-164.12B	-100.14B	-163.28B	-196.87B

NIPPON EXPRESS HOLDINGS,INC. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 3319.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:9147, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3319 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3692.35, below the 50-day MA of 3522.12, and above the 200-day MA of 3208.29, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 85.98 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 71.48 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.83 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:9147.

NIPPON EXPRESS HOLDINGS,INC. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
9364	75 Outperform	¥543.09B	20.17	7.13%	3.35%	6.71%	15.51%
9065	74 Outperform	¥487.30B	16.28	10.92%	2.55%	6.45%	24.72%
9072	73 Outperform	¥493.78B	29.06	7.15%	1.86%	10.70%	17.58%
9143	68 Neutral	¥973.52B	18.77	9.97%	3.54%	12.46%	-3.12%
9301	68 Neutral	¥538.05B	9.83	12.56%	2.81%	8.22%	48.07%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
9147	53 Neutral	¥916.97B	356.89	―	2.99%	4.96%	1.67%

NIPPON EXPRESS HOLDINGS,INC. Corporate Events

Nippon Express Takes ¥59.4 Billion Goodwill Hit as 2025 Profit Misses Forecast

Nippon Express Holdings has booked an impairment loss of about ¥59.4 billion on goodwill mainly tied to its European logistics business, following a reassessment of future cash flows and the application of a higher discount rate amid rising market interest rates. The non-cash charge underscores pressure on the group’s overseas operations and highlights sensitivity of its European portfolio to macroeconomic and interest-rate conditions.

For the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, revenue came in slightly below the prior forecast, but operating profit and profit before tax both exceeded expectations thanks to improved profitability in Japan and solid performance in logistics support services. However, profit attributable to owners of the parent fell sharply versus guidance as the goodwill impairment weighed on bottom-line earnings, a development that may concern shareholders focused on net income despite resilient underlying operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:9147) stock is a Sell with a Yen3104.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NIPPON EXPRESS HOLDINGS,INC. stock, see the JP:9147 Stock Forecast page.

Nippon Express Posts Profit Slump for 2025 but Signals Strong Rebound in 2026

Nippon Express Holdings reported virtually flat 2025 revenue at ¥2.57 trillion, with operating profit up 4.9% but profit before tax and net profit plunging, as net income attributable to owners fell to ¥2.7 billion and earnings per share dropped sharply after recognizing weaker investment income. Despite this, the group maintained a solid balance sheet with total assets of ¥2.41 trillion and strong operating cash flow, while executing a three-for-one stock split and cutting annual dividends to ¥100 per share, implying a very high payout ratio on depressed earnings.

For 2026, management projects a recovery, guiding for 4.9% revenue growth to ¥2.7 trillion and a near-doubling of operating profit to ¥100 billion, with net profit expected to rebound strongly to ¥60 billion, which would significantly improve per-share earnings and normalize the dividend payout profile. The company also reduced its shares outstanding during 2025 and plans to keep the dividend at ¥100 per share, signaling confidence in medium-term earnings power even as the latest fiscal year’s results reflect a temporary earnings setback.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:9147) stock is a Sell with a Yen3104.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NIPPON EXPRESS HOLDINGS,INC. stock, see the JP:9147 Stock Forecast page.

Nippon Express to Sell Osaka Warehouse Stake to Logistics Real Estate Firm CRE

NIPPON EXPRESS HOLDINGS, INC. has agreed to transfer all of its 79.35% stake in Osaka Warehouse Co., Ltd., a consolidated subsidiary specializing in hazardous materials warehousing and logistics-related real estate leasing mainly in the Kansai region, to logistics real estate specialist CRE, Inc. Under the deal, Osaka Warehouse will cease to be a consolidated subsidiary, with Nippon Express positioning the divestment as part of its business portfolio reform to exit low-profit and non-core real estate-heavy operations and focus on growth businesses, while the move is expected to support Osaka Warehouse’s future sustainability and expansion under CRE and enhance corporate value for both groups.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:9147) stock is a Sell with a Yen3104.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NIPPON EXPRESS HOLDINGS,INC. stock, see the JP:9147 Stock Forecast page.

Nippon Express Sells Tokyo Logistics Center for ¥100 Billion to Boost Capital Efficiency

Nippon Express Holdings has decided to sell the land and buildings of a large logistics center in Koto Ward, Tokyo, owned by its subsidiary Nippon Express Co., Ltd., for approximately ¥100 billion, recognizing an estimated gain on sale of about ¥72 billion in its IFRS-based results for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025. The buyer, ML Estate Company, Limited, is a real estate-focused entity fully owned by Mizuho Leasing, and the transaction is structured with a leaseback arrangement so that logistics operations at the site can continue, keeping the impact on future business performance limited. The sale forms part of Nippon Express Holdings’ broader strategy to boost ROE and capital profitability by replacing low-return real estate with higher-yielding assets and freeing up cash for growth investments; the expected gain has already been factored into the company’s current earnings forecast.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:9147) stock is a Hold with a Yen3430.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NIPPON EXPRESS HOLDINGS,INC. stock, see the JP:9147 Stock Forecast page.

Nippon Express Holdings to Divest Niigata West Port Logistics Subsidiary to Rinko

NIPPON EXPRESS HOLDINGS, INC. has agreed to transfer all shares of its sub-subsidiary NX Nihonkai Soko Co., Ltd., a port-focused warehousing and logistics operator based at Niigata West Port, to Rinko Corporation, which specializes in port cargo handling and storage at Niigata Port. The move stems from the group’s business portfolio policy emphasizing capital efficiency and growth potential, and follows a strategic shift that has seen Nippon Express concentrate international and related domestic logistics activities at Niigata East Port. After a review showing weak profitability and limited group synergies for the West Port business, the company concluded that selling the unit—currently 99.12% owned by Nippon Express—would support NX Nihonkai Soko’s growth under Rinko, help revitalize the West Port area, and improve capital efficiency, with the subsidiary ceasing to be consolidated in the group’s financial results.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:9147) stock is a Hold with a Yen3430.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NIPPON EXPRESS HOLDINGS,INC. stock, see the JP:9147 Stock Forecast page.

Nippon Express Holdings Transfers NX Real Estate to Nippon Themepark Development

NIPPON EXPRESS HOLDINGS, INC. has announced the transfer of all shares of its subsidiary, NX Real Estate Co., Ltd., to Nippon Themepark Development Co., Ltd. This decision aligns with the company’s strategy to enhance corporate value by focusing on growth businesses and liquidating low-profit operations. The transfer is expected to benefit both companies, with NTD leveraging its expertise in villa property and resort management to enhance the sustainability and growth of the transferred business.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:9147) stock is a Hold with a Yen3457.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NIPPON EXPRESS HOLDINGS,INC. stock, see the JP:9147 Stock Forecast page.

Nippon Express Completes Significant Treasury Stock Retirement

Nippon Express Holdings, Inc. has completed the retirement of 18,000,000 shares of its common stock, representing 6.90% of the total issued shares prior to retirement. This move, effective November 28, 2025, reduces the total number of issued shares to 243,000,000, potentially impacting shareholder value and market perception.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:9147) stock is a Hold with a Yen3457.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NIPPON EXPRESS HOLDINGS,INC. stock, see the JP:9147 Stock Forecast page.