Yamaguchi Financial Group (8418) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥538.04B
• Dividend Yield: 2.93%
• Average Volume (3M): 634.08K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 14.9
• Beta (1Y): 1.28
• Revenue Growth: 5.87%
• EPS Growth: 50.22%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 3,761
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 34.73
• Shares Outstanding: 234,767,610
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 650,290
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 634,080
• PEG Ratio: 0.24
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.61
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.85
• P/FCF Ratio: 3.99
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: ¥2,550.00
• Price Target Upside: 13.74% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 169.6
• Revenue Forecast (FY): ¥150.10B

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: ¥2,929.00 ▲(30.64% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/07/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/07/26

The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance—particularly rapid revenue growth and improved cash generation—tempered by balance-sheet leverage. Technicals remain in a clear uptrend but are overextended (high RSI/Stoch), which reduces the near-term technical score. Valuation is supportive with a reasonable P/E and moderate dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Sustained, large revenue growth indicates expanding core banking volumes and/or higher fee income, which can strengthen franchise economics over months. Durable top-line momentum supports scale advantages, capacity to invest in digital channels, and resilience through business cycles.

Cash Generation

A dramatic recovery in free cash flow and a high operating-cash-to-net-income ratio show strong cash conversion. Persistent cash generation improves funding flexibility, funds loan growth or buybacks, and provides a buffer against credit shocks if maintained over multiple quarters.

High Profitability

Very healthy gross and EBIT margins reflect efficient operations and profitable fee/securities income mix for a regional bank. Sustained margins underpin return on equity and allow competitive pricing or reinvestment in branches and digital services without eroding core profitability.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

Substantial leverage raises sensitivity to interest-rate shifts and credit stress, constraining strategic flexibility. Over a multi-month horizon, high debt levels increase funding and regulatory risk, limiting ability to pursue growth or absorb loan-loss deterioration without capital measures.

Margin Pressure

A declining net margin, even if modest, signals potential pressure from funding costs, competitive lending spreads or securities volatility. If persistent, margin compression can erode earnings power, reduce capital buildup, and limit appetite for fee-investment initiatives over coming quarters.

Cash Flow Volatility

Historic swings in cash flow, despite the recent spike, suggest earnings and cash from investment/trading may be uneven. Ongoing volatility can complicate planning for dividends, provisioning, and balance-sheet optimization, raising execution risk for strategic initiatives.

Yamaguchi Financial Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Yamaguchi Financial Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides various banking products and services in Japan. It provides securities brokerage, credit card, leasing, consulting, and other services. The company was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Shimonoseki, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Yamaguchi Financial Group generates revenue through multiple key streams. Primarily, it earns income from interest on loans provided to individuals and businesses, which constitutes a significant portion of its banking revenues. Additionally, the group collects fees from various financial services, including asset management, investment advisory, and insurance products. Premiums from life and non-life insurance policies also contribute to the company's earnings. Strategic partnerships with local businesses and government entities further bolster its lending portfolio and service offerings, enhancing its market presence and profitability. The company also benefits from investment income derived from its own capital and reserves, diversifying its revenue sources.

Yamaguchi Financial Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong income statement performance with 42.73% revenue growth and robust profitability (82.75% gross margin, 19.46% EBIT margin), supported by a sharp free cash flow recovery and strong cash conversion (OCF/NI 2.73). Offsetting this, the balance sheet is meaningfully leveraged (debt-to-equity 1.91) and margins dipped slightly year over year.

Income Statement

The income statement shows a strong gross profit margin of 82.75% for 2025, although net profit margin has decreased to 17.38% from 17.70% in 2024. Revenue growth from 2024 to 2025 is substantial at 42.73%, indicating a positive trajectory. The EBIT margin is robust at 19.46%, though it has declined slightly from the previous year. Overall, the company demonstrates strong profitability despite some volatility in margins.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.91, suggesting a significant leverage position. However, the equity ratio remains relatively stable at 4.76%, and ROE is strong at 5.71% for 2025, indicating efficient use of equity to generate returns. While the high debt level poses some risk, the company maintains a solid equity base.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a remarkable recovery in free cash flow, growing by 1697.01% from 2024 to 2025, a positive sign of improved cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 2.73, indicating strong cash conversion. Despite the improvement, past volatility in cash flows suggests a need for cautious monitoring.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2025	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	169.93B	203.34B	175.05B	148.16B	137.44B	173.67B
Gross Profit	169.93B	168.21B	142.48B	130.97B	131.98B	167.82B
EBITDA	38.25B	57.13B	41.63B	31.79B	297.00M	42.96B
Net Income	33.51B	35.35B	25.22B	17.89B	-13.01B	24.96B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	12.99T	12.99T	12.55T	12.21T	12.18T	11.99T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	0.00	1.86T	1.39T	1.88T	2.18T	1.81T
Total Debt	1.16T	971.58B	1.29T	785.75B	724.62B	825.50B
Total Liabilities	12.35T	12.37T	11.89T	11.60T	11.55T	11.31T
Stockholders Equity	632.53B	619.04B	652.79B	611.85B	629.96B	674.91B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	94.31B	94.31B	5.25B	-147.81B	-80.64B	1.12T
Operating Cash Flow	96.35B	96.35B	13.52B	-143.35B	-77.13B	1.12T
Investing Cash Flow	-146.62B	-146.62B	-493.73B	-155.57B	461.97B	-292.74B
Financing Cash Flow	3.60B	3.60B	-94.00M	1.76B	-13.20B	8.83B

Yamaguchi Financial Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 2242.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:8418, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2242 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2683.13, below the 50-day MA of 2429.56, and above the 200-day MA of 1888.60, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 80.30 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 62.22 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 47.84 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:8418.

Yamaguchi Financial Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
7327	79 Outperform	¥561.52B	12.72	―	3.15%	12.71%	71.94%
8418	70 Outperform	¥538.04B	14.90	6.09%	2.93%	5.87%	50.22%
7337	70 Outperform	¥589.05B	14.62	―	3.21%	19.82%	29.59%
8377	69 Neutral	¥758.84B	14.65	―	1.41%	28.83%	105.24%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
7180	66 Neutral	¥587.26B	14.31	4.93%	2.02%	12.96%	44.62%
5832	66 Neutral	¥589.50B	14.82	―	2.93%	9.27%	19.72%

Yamaguchi Financial Group Corporate Events

Yamaguchi Financial Group Posts Higher Nine-Month Profit but Guides to Weaker Full-Year Results

Yamaguchi Financial Group reported consolidated ordinary income of ¥183.9 billion for the nine months ended December 31, 2025, up 15.8% year on year, while ordinary profit edged down 2.7% to ¥37.4 billion, and profit attributable to owners of parent rose 14.5% to ¥28.8 billion, lifting basic earnings per share to ¥136.74. The group’s total assets expanded slightly to ¥13.0 trillion and net assets increased to ¥680.6 billion, pushing its capital adequacy ratio to 5.2%, alongside a planned full‑year dividend of ¥64 per share and an unchanged forecast that projects a year‑on‑year decline in full‑year ordinary profit and net profit, signaling solid current profitability but a cautious outlook and limited capital buffer for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8418) stock is a Buy with a Yen2856.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Yamaguchi Financial Group stock, see the JP:8418 Stock Forecast page.

Yamaguchi Financial Group Reports Progress on Share Buyback Program

Yamaguchi Financial Group has disclosed progress on its share buyback program, reporting that it repurchased 1,065,200 common shares on the Tokyo Stock Exchange between January 1 and January 31, 2026, at a total cost of ¥2,485,176,600. These purchases form part of a broader board-approved buyback authorization, under which the company may acquire up to 10 million shares, or about 4.73% of its issued shares (excluding treasury shares), for as much as ¥15 billion through October 30, 2026; cumulatively, it has so far acquired 2,481,600 shares for ¥5,397,230,650, a capital management move that may support shareholder returns and signal confidence in the company’s valuation.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8418) stock is a Buy with a Yen2788.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Yamaguchi Financial Group stock, see the JP:8418 Stock Forecast page.

Yamaguchi Financial Group Reports ¥24.3 Billion in Unrealized Securities Losses with No Change to Forecasts

Yamaguchi Financial Group has disclosed unrealized losses of ¥24.3 billion on certain securities, mainly held-to-maturity debt securities and listed shares of associates, as of the end of the third quarter of the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026. The unrealized losses are equivalent to 46.3% of the group’s consolidated ordinary profit and 68.7% of profit attributable to owners of parent for the previous fiscal year, underscoring a notable valuation hit to its securities portfolio, although the company stated that this development will not affect its current earnings or dividend forecasts for the 2025–26 fiscal year.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8418) stock is a Buy with a Yen2712.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Yamaguchi Financial Group stock, see the JP:8418 Stock Forecast page.

Yamaguchi Financial Group Reports Progress on Share Buyback Program

Yamaguchi Financial Group, Inc. announced that it has repurchased 1,039,300 of its own common shares on the Tokyo Stock Exchange between December 1 and December 31, 2025, at a total cost of ¥2,152,573,600, as part of a previously authorized share buyback program under the Companies Act of Japan. This transaction forms part of a broader board-approved plan, dated November 26, 2025, allowing buybacks of up to 10 million shares or ¥15 billion through October 30, 2026, under which the company has so far accumulated 1,416,400 shares for ¥2,912,054,050, signaling ongoing capital management efforts that may support shareholder value and optimize its capital structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8418) stock is a Buy with a Yen2290.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Yamaguchi Financial Group stock, see the JP:8418 Stock Forecast page.

Yamaguchi Financial Group Acquires Own Shares to Optimize Capital Structure

Yamaguchi Financial Group, Inc. announced the acquisition of 377,100 of its own common shares through market purchases on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, costing approximately 759 million yen. This move is part of a larger plan approved by the Board of Directors to acquire up to 10 million shares, aiming to enhance shareholder value and optimize capital structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8418) stock is a Buy with a Yen2290.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Yamaguchi Financial Group stock, see the JP:8418 Stock Forecast page.

Yamaguchi Financial Group to Acquire 10 Million Shares to Boost Shareholder Returns

Yamaguchi Financial Group announced a decision to acquire up to 10 million of its own shares, representing 4.73% of its total issued shares, as part of a strategy to enhance shareholder returns by improving capital efficiency. The acquisition, with a budget of up to 15 billion yen, will be conducted through market purchases on the Tokyo Stock Exchange from November 2025 to October 2026, potentially impacting the company’s capital structure and shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8418) stock is a Buy with a Yen1942.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Yamaguchi Financial Group stock, see the JP:8418 Stock Forecast page.

Yamaguchi Financial Group Restructures International Branches for Efficiency

Yamaguchi Financial Group announced a strategic shift in its international operations by restructuring its Qingdao and Dalian branches into representative offices. This move aligns with the company’s aim to enhance operational efficiency and maximize group synergies, while maintaining economic exchanges with these regions. The change is expected to have an immaterial impact on the company’s financial results for the current fiscal year.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8418) stock is a Buy with a Yen1942.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Yamaguchi Financial Group stock, see the JP:8418 Stock Forecast page.