Yamaguchi Financial Group (8418) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥480.17B
• Dividend Yield: 2.93%
• Average Volume (3M): 634.08K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.8
• Beta (1Y): 1.29
• Revenue Growth: 5.87%
• EPS Growth: 50.22%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 3,761
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 56.20
• Shares Outstanding: 234,767,610
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 650,290
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 634,080
• PEG Ratio: 0.24
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.61
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.85
• P/FCF Ratio: 3.99
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: ¥2,550.00
• Price Target Upside: 13.74% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 77 Outperform
• Price Target: ¥2,788.00 ▲(24.35% Upside)

Yamaguchi Financial Group demonstrates strong financial performance with robust revenue growth and profitability. The technical analysis indicates a strong bullish trend, although the stock is in overbought territory. The valuation is attractive with a low P/E ratio and a solid dividend yield. These factors contribute to a positive outlook, though the high leverage warrants cautious monitoring.

Positive Factors

Strong recent revenue growth

A 42.7% year-over-year revenue increase signals durable expansion in core banking activity and fee businesses. Sustained top-line growth supports higher scale, better absorption of fixed costs, and strengthens the franchise’s ability to invest in products and branches over the medium term.

Material free cash flow recovery

A dramatic FCF recovery and strong operating cash conversion (OCF/NetIncome 2.73) indicate improved cash generation quality. This enhances balance-sheet optionality, supports sustained dividends, debt servicing, and targeted investments without relying heavily on external funding.

High gross and operating margins

Very high gross margins and a robust EBIT margin reflect efficient deposit-led banking and fee income mix, implying structural profitability. Durable margins provide a buffer against interest-rate cycles and support consistent earnings retention for reinvestment and capital build-up.

Negative Factors

Elevated leverage on the balance sheet

A high debt-to-equity ratio increases financial risk and reduces flexibility to absorb credit shocks or higher funding costs. Over the medium term this can amplify earnings volatility, constrain lending capacity during stress, and limit strategic capital allocation options.

Slight decline in net profit margin

A declining net margin, even modest, points to pressure on bottom-line conversion of revenue. If persistent, margin erosion can weaken retained earnings growth, reduce capital accumulation, and limit the bank’s ability to expand lending or absorb higher credit costs over time.

Historical cash flow volatility

While FCF recently recovered, prior cash-flow swings indicate underlying sensitivity to earnings and working-capital cycles. Persistent volatility can complicate long-term planning, impair reliable dividend policy, and necessitate higher liquidity buffers that constrain growth initiatives.

Yamaguchi Financial Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Yamaguchi Financial Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides various banking products and services in Japan. It provides securities brokerage, credit card, leasing, consulting, and other services. The company was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Shimonoseki, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Yamaguchi Financial Group generates revenue through multiple key streams. Primarily, it earns income from interest on loans provided to individuals and businesses, which constitutes a significant portion of its banking revenues. Additionally, the group collects fees from various financial services, including asset management, investment advisory, and insurance products. Premiums from life and non-life insurance policies also contribute to the company's earnings. Strategic partnerships with local businesses and government entities further bolster its lending portfolio and service offerings, enhancing its market presence and profitability. The company also benefits from investment income derived from its own capital and reserves, diversifying its revenue sources.

Yamaguchi Financial Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Yamaguchi Financial Group exhibits strong revenue growth and profitability with a consistent gross profit margin. The balance sheet is leveraged, but equity returns are solid, supporting financial stability. Cash flow recovery is notable, although historical fluctuations warrant attention. Overall, the company is on a solid financial footing with positive growth prospects but should manage leverage carefully.

Income Statement

The income statement shows a strong gross profit margin of 82.75% for 2025, although net profit margin has decreased to 17.38% from 17.70% in 2024. Revenue growth from 2024 to 2025 is substantial at 42.73%, indicating a positive trajectory. The EBIT margin is robust at 19.46%, though it has declined slightly from the previous year. Overall, the company demonstrates strong profitability despite some volatility in margins.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.91, suggesting a significant leverage position. However, the equity ratio remains relatively stable at 4.76%, and ROE is strong at 5.71% for 2025, indicating efficient use of equity to generate returns. While the high debt level poses some risk, the company maintains a solid equity base.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a remarkable recovery in free cash flow, growing by 1697.01% from 2024 to 2025, a positive sign of improved cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 2.73, indicating strong cash conversion. Despite the improvement, past volatility in cash flows suggests a need for cautious monitoring.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	169.93B	203.34B	175.05B	148.16B	137.44B	173.67B
Gross Profit	169.93B	168.21B	142.48B	130.97B	131.98B	167.82B
EBITDA	38.25B	57.13B	41.63B	31.79B	297.00M	42.96B
Net Income	33.51B	35.35B	25.22B	17.89B	-13.01B	24.96B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	12.99T	12.99T	12.55T	12.21T	12.18T	11.99T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	0.00	1.86T	1.39T	1.88T	2.18T	1.81T
Total Debt	1.16T	971.58B	1.29T	785.75B	724.62B	825.50B
Total Liabilities	12.35T	12.37T	11.89T	11.60T	11.55T	11.31T
Stockholders Equity	632.53B	619.04B	652.79B	611.85B	629.96B	674.91B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	94.31B	94.31B	5.25B	-147.81B	-80.64B	1.12T
Operating Cash Flow	96.35B	96.35B	13.52B	-143.35B	-77.13B	1.12T
Investing Cash Flow	-146.62B	-146.62B	-493.73B	-155.57B	461.97B	-292.74B
Financing Cash Flow	3.60B	3.60B	-94.00M	1.76B	-13.20B	8.83B

Yamaguchi Financial Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 2242.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:8418, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2242 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2336.35, above the 50-day MA of 2159.93, and above the 200-day MA of 1774.33, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 88.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 73.83 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 78.31 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:8418.

Yamaguchi Financial Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
7327	79 Outperform	¥505.39B	11.45	―	3.15%	12.71%	71.94%
8418	77 Outperform	¥480.17B	12.78	6.09%	2.93%	5.87%	50.22%
7180	75 Outperform	¥507.16B	13.67	4.93%	2.02%	12.96%	44.62%
8410	70 Neutral	¥290.16B	18.82	―	3.66%	3.30%	79.42%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
5832	67 Neutral	¥511.77B	16.50	―	2.93%	9.27%	19.72%
8304	60 Neutral	¥346.08B	15.59	4.74%	3.38%	5.47%	―

Yamaguchi Financial Group Corporate Events

Yamaguchi Financial Group Reports ¥24.3 Billion in Unrealized Securities Losses with No Change to Forecasts

Yamaguchi Financial Group has disclosed unrealized losses of ¥24.3 billion on certain securities, mainly held-to-maturity debt securities and listed shares of associates, as of the end of the third quarter of the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026. The unrealized losses are equivalent to 46.3% of the group’s consolidated ordinary profit and 68.7% of profit attributable to owners of parent for the previous fiscal year, underscoring a notable valuation hit to its securities portfolio, although the company stated that this development will not affect its current earnings or dividend forecasts for the 2025–26 fiscal year.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8418) stock is a Buy with a Yen2712.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Yamaguchi Financial Group stock, see the JP:8418 Stock Forecast page.

Yamaguchi Financial Group Reports Progress on Share Buyback Program

Yamaguchi Financial Group, Inc. announced that it has repurchased 1,039,300 of its own common shares on the Tokyo Stock Exchange between December 1 and December 31, 2025, at a total cost of ¥2,152,573,600, as part of a previously authorized share buyback program under the Companies Act of Japan. This transaction forms part of a broader board-approved plan, dated November 26, 2025, allowing buybacks of up to 10 million shares or ¥15 billion through October 30, 2026, under which the company has so far accumulated 1,416,400 shares for ¥2,912,054,050, signaling ongoing capital management efforts that may support shareholder value and optimize its capital structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8418) stock is a Buy with a Yen2290.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Yamaguchi Financial Group stock, see the JP:8418 Stock Forecast page.

Yamaguchi Financial Group Acquires Own Shares to Optimize Capital Structure

Yamaguchi Financial Group, Inc. announced the acquisition of 377,100 of its own common shares through market purchases on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, costing approximately 759 million yen. This move is part of a larger plan approved by the Board of Directors to acquire up to 10 million shares, aiming to enhance shareholder value and optimize capital structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8418) stock is a Buy with a Yen2290.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Yamaguchi Financial Group stock, see the JP:8418 Stock Forecast page.

Yamaguchi Financial Group to Acquire 10 Million Shares to Boost Shareholder Returns

Yamaguchi Financial Group announced a decision to acquire up to 10 million of its own shares, representing 4.73% of its total issued shares, as part of a strategy to enhance shareholder returns by improving capital efficiency. The acquisition, with a budget of up to 15 billion yen, will be conducted through market purchases on the Tokyo Stock Exchange from November 2025 to October 2026, potentially impacting the company’s capital structure and shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8418) stock is a Buy with a Yen1942.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Yamaguchi Financial Group stock, see the JP:8418 Stock Forecast page.

Yamaguchi Financial Group Restructures International Branches for Efficiency

Yamaguchi Financial Group announced a strategic shift in its international operations by restructuring its Qingdao and Dalian branches into representative offices. This move aligns with the company’s aim to enhance operational efficiency and maximize group synergies, while maintaining economic exchanges with these regions. The change is expected to have an immaterial impact on the company’s financial results for the current fiscal year.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8418) stock is a Buy with a Yen1942.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Yamaguchi Financial Group stock, see the JP:8418 Stock Forecast page.

Yamaguchi Financial Group Reports Unrealized Losses but Maintains Forecasts

Yamaguchi Financial Group has reported unrealized losses on securities amounting to 18,807 million yen as of the end of the second quarter of the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026. Despite these losses, the company has stated that there will be no impact on its performance and dividend forecasts for the fiscal year, and it has revised its financial results forecast for the six months ended September 30, 2025, upwards.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8418) stock is a Buy with a Yen1942.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Yamaguchi Financial Group stock, see the JP:8418 Stock Forecast page.

Yamaguchi Financial Group Revises Profit Forecast Upward

Yamaguchi Financial Group has revised its financial forecast for the six months ended September 30, 2025, reporting a significant increase in expected profits. This adjustment is attributed to lower-than-anticipated expenses and a gain from the sale of a subsidiary, although the company remains cautious about the full fiscal year forecast due to uncertain market conditions.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8418) stock is a Buy with a Yen1942.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Yamaguchi Financial Group stock, see the JP:8418 Stock Forecast page.