Aozora Bank (8304) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥377.34B
• Dividend Yield: 3.38%
• Average Volume (3M): 994.36K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 15.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.81
• Revenue Growth: 5.47%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: JP
• Employees: 2,476
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 59.35
• Shares Outstanding: 139,789,410
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,319,050
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 994,363
• PEG Ratio: -0.10
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.61
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.24
• P/FCF Ratio: -4.35
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: ¥2,359.55
• Price Target Upside: -16.48% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Sell
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): 172.17
• Revenue Forecast (FY): ¥94.64B

• Rating: 54 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥2,816.00 ▼(-0.32% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/06/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/06/26

The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance—sharp revenue decline, negative operating/free cash flow, and high leverage. Offsetting factors include a strong technical uptrend and a reasonable P/E with a solid dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Margin recovery and improved profitability

Recent improvement in core profitability — a 19.43% net margin and rising EBIT/EBITDA margins — signals the bank is restoring earnings power. Sustained margin expansion strengthens internal cash generation, helping absorb credit cycles and fund operations over months.

Diversified core banking revenue streams

Aozora's business model combines lending/intermediation, fee businesses (payments, advisory), and securities/trading. This multi-channel revenue mix reduces dependence on one source, smoothing income across interest cycles and supporting resilient revenue generation over the medium term.

Stable equity ratio and improving ROE

An improving ROE (4.55%) alongside a stable equity ratio indicates better equity utilization without destabilizing the asset base. That balance supports measured lending or fee-led growth while maintaining regulatory capital headroom and funding resilience over coming quarters.

Negative Factors

Sharp revenue decline

A 22.84% year-over-year revenue drop reflects durable top-line pressure that can erode margins and internal capital. Continued revenue weakness would undermine the bank's ability to fund operations, invest in growth initiatives, and maintain fee momentum over the next several months.

Negative operating and free cash flows

Persistently negative operating and free cash flows create liquidity strain and reduce buffers for credit losses or investment. Even with some conversion efficiency, weak cash generation increases dependence on external funding or asset sales, limiting strategic optionality over the medium term.

High leverage

A debt-to-equity ratio near 1.90 denotes elevated leverage for a regional bank, increasing sensitivity to funding stress and interest-rate swings. High leverage constrains capital flexibility, amplifies earnings volatility from impairments, and raises regulatory and market risk over time.

Aozora Bank Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Aozora Bank, Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides various banking products and services in Japan and internationally. It operates through Retail Banking Group, Institutional Banking Group, Allied Banking Group, Specialty Finance Group, International Finance Group, and Financial Markets Group segments. The company offers checking accounts, savings accounts, time deposits, deposits-at-notice, non-residents deposits, and negotiable certificates of deposit, as well as deposits in foreign currencies. It also provides loans on deeds and notes, and overdrafts; corporate, M&A, project, equity, sustainable, LBO, structured, real estate, business recovery, and project financing products; syndicated loans; discount on promissory notes; securities investments, including public, local, and corporate bonds, as well as equity and other securities; domestic and foreign exchange services; and consignment of bonds. In addition, the company offers liabilities guarantee, securities lending, public bonds underwriting, agency, custody, financial instruments intermediary, securitization, M&A advisory, business succession consulting, business expansion, equity/debt funding, and consulting services. Further, it is involved in the over-the-counter sale of securities investment trusts and insurance products; and provision of trust services for secured corporate bonds, as well as interest rate, currency, and other derivative transaction services. As of March 31, 2021, it operated 19 branches. The company was formerly known as Nippon Fudosan Bank, Limited and changed its name to Aozora Bank, Ltd. in 2001. Aozora Bank, Ltd. was incorporated in 1957 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Aozora Bank generates revenue primarily through the interest income earned from its lending activities. The bank provides various types of loans, including personal loans, business loans, and real estate loans, which are a significant source of income. Additionally, Aozora Bank earns fees from its retail and corporate banking services, such as account maintenance fees, transaction fees, and advisory services. The bank also engages in treasury operations, managing its investment portfolio and engaging in foreign exchange trading, which contributes to its earnings. Furthermore, strategic partnerships with other financial institutions and a focus on expanding its digital banking services are key factors enhancing its revenue streams in the evolving financial landscape.

Aozora Bank Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financial results are pressured by a steep revenue decline (-22.84%) and negative operating/free cash flows that signal liquidity strain. While margins and ROE have improved and the latest net margin is positive, high leverage (debt-to-equity 1.90) and cash flow weakness keep the score low.

Income Statement

Aozora Bank's income statement shows significant volatility. The revenue has decreased notably by 22.84% in the latest year, indicating a challenging environment. Despite a positive net profit margin of 19.43% in the most recent period, previous years showed negative margins, reflecting inconsistent profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have improved, but the overall revenue decline is a concern.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.90, indicating significant leverage, which poses a risk in volatile markets. However, the return on equity has improved to 4.55%, showing better utilization of equity. The equity ratio remains stable, suggesting a balanced asset structure, but the high leverage remains a concern.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis indicates negative operating and free cash flows, highlighting liquidity challenges. The free cash flow to net income ratio is positive, suggesting some efficiency in converting income to cash, but the overall negative cash flow growth and coverage ratios indicate financial strain.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2026	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	114.05B	220.81B	230.12B	167.07B	130.65B	133.73B
Gross Profit	114.05B	108.41B	105.76B	104.58B	116.12B	116.02B
EBITDA	22.83B	26.64B	-46.00B	14.34B	52.44B	44.80B
Net Income	19.27B	20.52B	-49.90B	8.72B	35.00B	28.97B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	7.88T	7.76T	7.60T	7.18T	6.73T	5.92T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	0.00	1.41T	1.58T	1.28T	1.14T	950.11B
Total Debt	1.25T	855.94B	1.04T	683.39B	617.42B	563.67B
Total Liabilities	7.41T	7.30T	7.21T	6.75T	6.24T	5.43T
Stockholders Equity	459.56B	451.42B	384.40B	438.66B	493.49B	494.55B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	-62.98B	-224.85B	-67.37B	248.33B	722.29B
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	-56.90B	-222.45B	-61.38B	253.90B	728.73B
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-147.85B	167.44B	213.94B	-23.83B	-223.53B
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	46.59B	281.15B	-18.07B	-16.06B	-14.88B

Aozora Bank Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 2825.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:8304, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2825 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2785.75, above the 50-day MA of 2636.95, and above the 200-day MA of 2318.07, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 56.71 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 59.04 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 39.59 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:8304.

Aozora Bank Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
7380	76 Outperform	¥373.81B	15.77	―	2.94%	1.91%	9.73%
8358	76 Outperform	¥391.83B	14.60	8.13%	2.12%	22.44%	59.32%
8524	72 Outperform	¥383.75B	14.60	―	3.01%	19.69%	70.91%
8368	68 Neutral	¥411.82B	21.17	3.95%	2.19%	9.29%	28.34%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
8366	65 Neutral	¥408.33B	21.04	―	1.50%	15.79%	78.27%
8304	54 Neutral	¥377.34B	14.97	4.74%	3.38%	5.47%	―

Aozora Bank Corporate Events

Aozora Bank Confirms Q3 Dividend and Sets Q4 Payout, Keeping FY2025 Forecast Intact

Aozora Bank’s board has approved a third-quarter dividend of 22 yen per common share for FY2025, up from 19 yen a year earlier, with the payout funded from retained earnings and totaling 3,044 million yen, effective March 9, 2026. The bank kept its full-year FY2025 dividend forecast unchanged at 88 yen per share and, following the confirmation of the third-quarter payout, set its previously undecided fourth-quarter dividend at 22 yen, signaling continued commitment to shareholder returns and a stable dividend policy compared with the prior year’s 79 yen total dividend.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8304) stock is a Hold with a Yen2811.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aozora Bank stock, see the JP:8304 Stock Forecast page.

Aozora Bank Lifts Nine-Month Profit, Keeps FY2025 Guidance Intact

The bank posted nine-month FY2025 consolidated ordinary income of ¥179.8 billion, up 4.6% year on year, while ordinary profit surged 78% to ¥23.7 billion and net earnings rose 34.5% to ¥21.8 billion, supported by improved comprehensive income and higher per-share metrics despite net asset ratio compression to 5.6%. Management reaffirmed a full-year dividend forecast of ¥88 per share and left guidance unchanged at ¥30 billion ordinary profit and ¥22 billion attributable net income, implying that recent performance and balance-sheet expansion are tracking expectations even as the group streamlines its scope by removing Aozora Asia Pacific Limited.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8304) stock is a Hold with a Yen2811.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aozora Bank stock, see the JP:8304 Stock Forecast page.

Aozora Bank Reviews FY2025 Q3 Performance and Capital Metrics

Aozora Bank released a detailed FY2025 third-quarter overview covering financial highlights, profitability by business unit, balance-sheet trends, and loan performance across domestic and overseas portfolios, while addressing asset quality, securities positions, funding, investments, and capital ratios, indicating a broad review of operations and risk management under higher yen rates.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8304) stock is a Hold with a Yen2811.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aozora Bank stock, see the JP:8304 Stock Forecast page.

Aozora Bank Declares Increased Second Quarter Dividend

Aozora Bank has announced a second-quarter dividend of 22 yen per common share, which is 25% of its full-year dividend forecast of 88 yen. This dividend reflects a positive increase from the previous year’s second-quarter dividend of 19 yen, indicating a strong financial performance and commitment to shareholder returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8304) stock is a Hold with a Yen2254.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aozora Bank stock, see the JP:8304 Stock Forecast page.

Aozora Bank Reports Strong Financial Performance for First Half of FY2025

Aozora Bank reported a positive financial performance for the first six months of FY2025, with a notable increase in ordinary profit and profit attributable to owners of the parent compared to the previous year. The bank’s consolidated earnings forecast for the full year indicates continued growth, with a significant rise in ordinary profit and profit attributable to owners of the parent, reflecting strong operational performance and strategic positioning in the market.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8304) stock is a Hold with a Yen2254.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aozora Bank stock, see the JP:8304 Stock Forecast page.