Aozora Bank (8304) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $346.08B
• Dividend Yield: 3.38%
• Average Volume (3M): 994.36K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 15.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.73
• Revenue Growth: 5.47%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: JP
• Employees: 2,476
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 52.66
• Shares Outstanding: 139,789,410
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,319,050
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 994,363
• PEG Ratio: -0.10
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.61
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.24
• P/FCF Ratio: -4.35
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: -1.24
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: -3.76
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -3.76
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -18.78
• 1Y Price Target: $2,359.95
• Price Target Upside: -5.68% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Sell
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 60 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥2,811.00 ▲(12.35% Upside)

Aozora Bank's overall stock score is driven by its strong technical indicators and reasonable valuation, which are offset by significant financial performance challenges, including declining revenues and high leverage. The lack of earnings call data and corporate events limits further insights.

Positive Factors

Improving Return on Equity

An improved ROE to 4.55% signals better capital efficiency and management allocation of equity. Over the medium term this can support reinvestment and moderate dividend capacity, helping the bank strengthen core profitability despite headwinds in net interest income.

Stable equity ratio / balanced asset structure

A stable equity ratio indicates a conservative, balanced asset mix that supports regulatory capital resilience. This structural stability enhances the bank's ability to absorb shocks, maintain lending capacity and pursue strategic initiatives without immediate capital raises.

Diversified revenue streams

Exposure to NII, fee income and trading/securities revenue provides structural diversification. Over 2-6 months, stronger fee or trading outcomes can offset NII pressure, while fee businesses support more stable earnings and lessen reliance on balance-sheet interest spread.

Negative Factors

High leverage

A debt-to-equity ratio around 1.90 reflects significant leverage, increasing sensitivity to credit losses and funding stress. Persistently high leverage constrains strategic flexibility, heightens refinancing and regulatory risk, and reduces the bank's buffer against cyclical downturns.

Negative operating and free cash flows

Sustained negative operating and free cash flows point to liquidity strain and dependence on external funding or asset sales. Over the medium term this limits capital deployment, constrains loan growth and dividend sustainability, and raises refinancing and solvency concerns.

Significant revenue decline and earnings volatility

A ~22.8% revenue drop plus historical margin swings indicate an unstable earnings base. Persistent top-line weakness forces cost reductions or riskier growth tactics, undermining long-term credit quality and making reliable forecasting and capital planning more difficult.

Aozora Bank Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Aozora Bank, Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides various banking products and services in Japan and internationally. It operates through Retail Banking Group, Institutional Banking Group, Allied Banking Group, Specialty Finance Group, International Finance Group, and Financial Markets Group segments. The company offers checking accounts, savings accounts, time deposits, deposits-at-notice, non-residents deposits, and negotiable certificates of deposit, as well as deposits in foreign currencies. It also provides loans on deeds and notes, and overdrafts; corporate, M&A, project, equity, sustainable, LBO, structured, real estate, business recovery, and project financing products; syndicated loans; discount on promissory notes; securities investments, including public, local, and corporate bonds, as well as equity and other securities; domestic and foreign exchange services; and consignment of bonds. In addition, the company offers liabilities guarantee, securities lending, public bonds underwriting, agency, custody, financial instruments intermediary, securitization, M&A advisory, business succession consulting, business expansion, equity/debt funding, and consulting services. Further, it is involved in the over-the-counter sale of securities investment trusts and insurance products; and provision of trust services for secured corporate bonds, as well as interest rate, currency, and other derivative transaction services. As of March 31, 2021, it operated 19 branches. The company was formerly known as Nippon Fudosan Bank, Limited and changed its name to Aozora Bank, Ltd. in 2001. Aozora Bank, Ltd. was incorporated in 1957 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Aozora Bank generates revenue primarily through the interest income earned from its lending activities. The bank provides various types of loans, including personal loans, business loans, and real estate loans, which are a significant source of income. Additionally, Aozora Bank earns fees from its retail and corporate banking services, such as account maintenance fees, transaction fees, and advisory services. The bank also engages in treasury operations, managing its investment portfolio and engaging in foreign exchange trading, which contributes to its earnings. Furthermore, strategic partnerships with other financial institutions and a focus on expanding its digital banking services are key factors enhancing its revenue streams in the evolving financial landscape.

Aozora Bank Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Aozora Bank's financial performance is challenged by declining revenues and high leverage. Despite some improvement in profitability metrics, negative cash flows and high debt levels pose significant risks.

Income Statement

Aozora Bank's income statement shows significant volatility. The revenue has decreased notably by 22.84% in the latest year, indicating a challenging environment. Despite a positive net profit margin of 19.43% in the most recent period, previous years showed negative margins, reflecting inconsistent profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have improved, but the overall revenue decline is a concern.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.90, indicating significant leverage, which poses a risk in volatile markets. However, the return on equity has improved to 4.55%, showing better utilization of equity. The equity ratio remains stable, suggesting a balanced asset structure, but the high leverage remains a concern.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis indicates negative operating and free cash flows, highlighting liquidity challenges. The free cash flow to net income ratio is positive, suggesting some efficiency in converting income to cash, but the overall negative cash flow growth and coverage ratios indicate financial strain.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	114.05B	220.81B	230.12B	167.07B	130.65B	133.73B
Gross Profit	114.05B	108.41B	105.76B	104.58B	116.12B	116.02B
EBITDA	22.83B	26.64B	-46.00B	14.34B	52.44B	44.80B
Net Income	19.27B	20.52B	-49.90B	8.72B	35.00B	28.97B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	7.88T	7.76T	7.60T	7.18T	6.73T	5.92T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	0.00	1.41T	1.58T	1.28T	1.14T	950.11B
Total Debt	1.25T	855.94B	1.04T	683.39B	617.42B	563.67B
Total Liabilities	7.41T	7.30T	7.21T	6.75T	6.24T	5.43T
Stockholders Equity	459.56B	451.42B	384.40B	438.66B	493.49B	494.55B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	-62.98B	-224.85B	-67.37B	248.33B	722.29B
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	-56.90B	-222.45B	-61.38B	253.90B	728.73B
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-147.85B	167.44B	213.94B	-23.83B	-223.53B
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	46.59B	281.15B	-18.07B	-16.06B	-14.88B

Aozora Bank Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 2502.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:8304, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2502 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2561.60, above the 50-day MA of 2468.64, and above the 200-day MA of 2224.69, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.50 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.75 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 25.25 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:8304.

Aozora Bank Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
7327	79 Outperform	¥505.39B	11.45	―	3.15%	12.71%	71.94%
8418	77 Outperform	¥480.17B	12.78	6.09%	2.93%	5.87%	50.22%
8410	70 Neutral	¥290.16B	18.82	―	3.66%	3.30%	79.42%
8377	69 Neutral	¥643.39B	12.42	―	1.41%	28.83%	105.24%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
5832	67 Neutral	¥511.77B	16.50	―	2.93%	9.27%	19.72%
8304	60 Neutral	$346.08B	15.59	4.74%	3.38%	5.47%	―

Aozora Bank Corporate Events

Aozora Bank Declares Increased Second Quarter Dividend

Aozora Bank has announced a second-quarter dividend of 22 yen per common share, which is 25% of its full-year dividend forecast of 88 yen. This dividend reflects a positive increase from the previous year’s second-quarter dividend of 19 yen, indicating a strong financial performance and commitment to shareholder returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8304) stock is a Hold with a Yen2254.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aozora Bank stock, see the JP:8304 Stock Forecast page.

Aozora Bank Reports Strong Financial Performance for First Half of FY2025

Aozora Bank reported a positive financial performance for the first six months of FY2025, with a notable increase in ordinary profit and profit attributable to owners of the parent compared to the previous year. The bank’s consolidated earnings forecast for the full year indicates continued growth, with a significant rise in ordinary profit and profit attributable to owners of the parent, reflecting strong operational performance and strategic positioning in the market.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8304) stock is a Hold with a Yen2254.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aozora Bank stock, see the JP:8304 Stock Forecast page.