SEMBA CORP (6540) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥20.26B
• Dividend Yield: 0.56%
• Average Volume (3M): 15.56K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.50
• Revenue Growth: 13.31%
• EPS Growth: 4.29%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 520
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Engineering & Construction
• EPS (TTM): 54.76
• Shares Outstanding: 10,747,058
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 12,750
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 15,560
• PEG Ratio: 254.31
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.30
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.58
• P/FCF Ratio: -8.73
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥1,933.00 ▲(9.21% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 02/18/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 02/18/26

The score is driven primarily by strong financial positioning (very low leverage and improved profitability), offset by inconsistent cash flow in recent periods. Valuation is supportive with a moderate P/E and a solid dividend yield, while technical indicators point to only modest/soft near-term momentum.

Positive Factors

Conservative Balance Sheet

Near-zero leverage provides durable financial flexibility: it allows SEMBA to fund operations, absorb cash-flow volatility, pursue selective investments or partnerships, and preserve optionality during industry cycles without immediate refinancing pressure.

Improving Profitability and Margins

Sustained margin expansion indicates improving unit economics and operating leverage from 2020–2024. Higher gross and net margins support better free cash generation potential over time and signal a more defensible cost structure as revenue scales.

Subscription-Based Revenue Model

A recurring, subscription-driven model provides predictable revenue streams, higher customer retention and visibility into future revenues. This structural revenue profile supports long-term planning, upsell opportunities and resilience versus one-time project cycles.

Negative Factors

Volatile Cash Generation

Inconsistent operating and free cash flow undermines confidence in cash conversion and increases reliance on the balance sheet; this can constrain reinvestment, dividend sustainability, or M&A, and raises execution risk if working-capital swings persist.

Recent Revenue Contraction

A near-term revenue decline after prior growth interrupts scale momentum and can pressure operating leverage. If the decline signals weaker demand or competitive displacement, it may slow margin progress and require elevated sales/marketing investment to regain growth.

Asset Base Contraction

A shrinking asset base may reflect lower capital investment or client-related reductions, which can limit capacity to expand services or onboard large customers. Over months this could constrain growth initiatives and exacerbate cash-timing variability.

SEMBA CORP Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Semba Corporation engages in the planning, design, construction, and supervision of commercial spaces in Japan and internationally. Its services include investigation and analysis, consulting, conceptual and master planning, working drawing, project management, opening sales promotion, tenant mixed planning, market research, merchandising planning, and construction management. The company also provides commercial spaces and facilities, shopping malls, department stores, specialty stores, cafes, restaurants, toys shops, character and apparel shops, amusement parks, and others. Semba Corporation was founded in 1947 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

SEMBA CORP generates revenue primarily through its subscription-based software services, offering customers access to its logistics management platforms and data analytics tools on a recurring basis. Key revenue streams include licensing fees from its software products, professional services for implementation and customization, and support and maintenance contracts. Additionally, SEMBA CORP may engage in partnerships with other technology providers and logistics firms, enhancing its product offerings and expanding its customer base. These collaborations can lead to joint ventures that create new revenue opportunities, while the increasing demand for digital transformation in supply chain management contributes significantly to the company's earnings.

SEMBA CORP Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Fundamentals are solid: profitability improved materially over 2020–2024 and the balance sheet is very conservative with minimal-to-no debt. The main drag is volatile cash conversion, with sharply negative operating/free cash flow in 2025 despite positive earnings, plus a modest revenue decline in the latest year.

Income Statement

Profitability and scale improved meaningfully from 2020–2024, with margins steadily expanding (gross margin ~14.5% in 2020 to ~19.9% in 2024; net margin ~1.6% to ~5.2%), and net income rising versus earlier years. Revenue growth was strong through 2022–2024, but the latest annual period shows a modest revenue decline (about -2.0%), which is a near-term watch item for momentum.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is very conservatively positioned with minimal-to-no debt (effectively near-zero leverage in 2021–2024 and debt shown as 0 in 2025), providing significant financial flexibility. Equity has grown over time, supporting improved returns on equity (roughly ~2.7% in 2021 to ~11.0% in 2024). A mild drawback is that total assets dipped from 2024 to 2025, suggesting some balance-sheet contraction, though not a leverage-driven risk.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is the most volatile area. While 2024 showed strong operating and free cash flow (both solidly positive), cash flow swung negative in 2023 and again turned sharply negative in 2025 despite positive reported earnings, indicating working-capital or project timing swings. This inconsistency lowers confidence in near-term cash conversion and increases reliance on balance-sheet strength to absorb fluctuations.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	33.50B	32.83B	28.96B	24.89B	22.81B	19.27B
Gross Profit	6.72B	6.09B	5.76B	4.51B	3.82B	3.22B
EBITDA	2.78B	2.43B	2.06B	1.43B	969.88M	603.51M
Net Income	1.86B	1.52B	1.50B	1.03B	451.54M	296.72M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	19.99B	22.14B	23.32B	19.57B	17.35B	16.81B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	9.51B	9.74B	12.49B	9.32B	10.18B	9.27B
Total Debt	75.40M	0.00	4.61M	6.54M	5.37M	2.03M
Total Liabilities	6.26B	7.55B	9.70B	7.33B	6.12B	5.94B
Stockholders Equity	13.73B	14.59B	13.62B	12.25B	11.23B	10.86B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	-2.17B	3.39B	-777.42M	1.13B	402.31M
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	-2.14B	3.53B	-655.30M	1.28B	536.55M
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	27.63M	2.59M	93.11M	-204.17M	16.14M
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	-745.47M	-464.33M	-330.23M	-255.34M	-192.37M

SEMBA CORP Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 1770.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:6540, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1770 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1816.40, below the 50-day MA of 1783.79, and above the 200-day MA of 1700.61, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 28.50 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.07 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.71 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:6540.

SEMBA CORP Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
1770	76 Outperform	¥16.62B	12.80	―	3.71%	-21.52%	-35.65%
9765	76 Outperform	¥17.81B	13.69	―	3.90%	-3.59%	-15.46%
1960	73 Outperform	¥22.39B	10.85	―	2.97%	22.32%	5024.88%
1716	71 Outperform	¥18.35B	10.61	―	2.87%	-1.39%	-4.43%
6540	69 Neutral	¥20.26B	13.27	―	0.56%	13.31%	4.29%
1726	66 Neutral	¥23.85B	19.79	―	4.48%	-6.37%	-16.88%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%