IBOKIN Co., Ltd. (5699) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥5.48B
• Dividend Yield: 1.8%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.25K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.54
• Revenue Growth: -0.27%
• EPS Growth: 0.09%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 163
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Waste Management
• EPS (TTM): 51.43
• Shares Outstanding: 3,427,200
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,360
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,253
• PEG Ratio: 0.50
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.91
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.46
• P/FCF Ratio: -3.40
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 62 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥1,572.00 ▲(11.33% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 02/18/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 02/18/26

The score is held back mainly by 2025 financial risk signals—sharp cash flow deterioration with negative free cash flow and a meaningful increase in leverage—despite solid revenue growth and resilient net margins. Technical indicators are mixed/neutral, while the low P/E and dividend yield provide valuation support.

Positive Factors

Consistent Revenue Growth

Consistent top-line growth through 2025 indicates steady industrial demand for IBOKIN's services and improving scale. Durable revenue expansion supports better capacity utilization, spreads fixed costs, and underpins multi-period investment in sorting and recovery infrastructure.

Resilient Net Profitability

An improving net margin despite softer gross and operating margins suggests the company retains pricing power or cost control at the bottom line. Sustained net profitability supports long-term earnings durability and helps preserve distributable cash and reinvestment capacity.

Fee + Recovered-Materials Business Model

A dual revenue model (service fees plus sales of recovered materials) creates stable fee-based cash flows with upside from commodity recovery yields. This structural mix cushions cyclicality in commodity prices and supports predictable revenue from contractual waste-treatment relationships.

Negative Factors

Sharp Cash-Flow Deterioration

A collapse in operating cash flow and deeply negative free cash flow in 2025 signals weak cash conversion or large cash outlays. Persistent FCF deficits would erode liquidity, limit capex flexibility, and force external financing or asset-sales, raising medium-term execution risk.

Rising Leverage

A marked step-up in leverage increases interest and refinancing exposure after a historically conservative balance sheet. Higher debt reduces financial flexibility to absorb demand shocks or fund growth, amplifying downside risk if cash flow volatility continues.

Margin Compression at Gross & Op Levels

Declines in gross and operating margins point to cost pressures or adverse mix dynamics. If sustained, margin compression will constrain incremental cash generation and returns on new investments, making it harder to rebuild balance-sheet buffers amid higher leverage.

IBOKIN Co., Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

IBOKIN Co.,Ltd., a recycling company, provides demolition, environment, metal, and transportation recycling services in Japan. The company also engages in ferrous and non-ferrous materials recycling; and industrial waste disposal business. In addition, it offers dismantling, removal, collection, transportation, intermediate treatment, and final disposal services. Further, the company is also engaged in the building demotion work; automotive recycling; and buying, selling, and lending of highly managed medical equipment. The company was incorporated in 1984 and is headquartered in Tatsuno, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

IBOKIN generates revenue through the sale of its electronic components and materials to a diverse range of industries, including consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial applications. The company's revenue model is primarily based on direct sales to manufacturers and OEMs (Original Equipment Manufacturers), who integrate IBOKIN's products into their own devices. Key revenue streams include bulk orders of semiconductor materials, display technologies, and specialized electronic components. Additionally, IBOKIN may engage in strategic partnerships with technology firms and research institutions to co-develop cutting-edge technologies, further enhancing its market reach and revenue potential.

IBOKIN Co., Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement is a relative strength with consistent revenue growth and resilient net margin, but 2025 shows clear risk signals: leverage stepped up materially (higher debt-to-equity) and cash generation deteriorated sharply with deeply negative free cash flow, reducing financial flexibility and increasing execution risk.

Income Statement

Revenue has grown consistently from 2022–2025 (up 7.7% in 2025), showing solid demand and scale-up after the 2022 dip. Profitability is steady but not expanding: 2025 gross margin fell to ~17.9% from ~19.2% in 2024, and operating margin also declined (~6.4% vs ~8.5%), suggesting cost pressure or mix headwinds. Net margin improved to ~6.0% in 2025 (from ~5.4% in 2024), indicating earnings resilience despite softer operating profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet was conservatively leveraged through 2024 (debt-to-equity ~0.05–0.10), but 2025 shows a sharp increase in leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.36) and higher absolute debt, which raises financial risk and reduces flexibility. Equity has grown over time, supporting asset expansion, but the 2025 step-up in debt is the key negative change that investors will watch closely.

Cash Flow

Cash generation deteriorated materially in 2025: operating cash flow dropped to ~¥0.07B from ~¥0.93B in 2024, and free cash flow turned deeply negative (~-¥1.37B). Cash flow covered only a small portion of net income in 2025, implying weaker cash conversion and/or working-capital strain, while the large negative free cash flow suggests heavy investment or a one-off cash outflow. Prior years (especially 2024) showed much healthier cash performance, highlighting elevated volatility and execution risk.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	9.29B	10.01B	9.66B	8.66B	7.96B	8.43B
Gross Profit	1.65B	1.79B	1.85B	1.51B	1.35B	1.60B
EBITDA	934.33M	987.05M	1.11B	840.54M	743.46M	997.02M
Net Income	408.23M	598.47M	520.40M	396.38M	346.50M	509.53M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	6.49B	8.11B	6.34B	5.74B	5.32B	5.76B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.16B	1.67B	2.26B	1.73B	1.89B	1.97B
Total Debt	395.19M	1.85B	245.39M	293.81M	394.37M	559.03M
Total Liabilities	1.84B	2.96B	1.80B	1.71B	1.52B	2.14B
Stockholders Equity	4.64B	5.12B	4.53B	4.03B	3.81B	3.62B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	-1.37B	701.90M	85.92M	169.49M	690.73M
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	71.73M	932.38M	603.82M	338.66M	795.97M
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-1.44B	-239.70M	-494.25M	-200.28M	-100.48M
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	718.20M	-165.34M	-222.89M	-300.02M	-241.91M

IBOKIN Co., Ltd. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 1412.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:5699, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1412 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1519.45, below the 50-day MA of 1503.90, and above the 200-day MA of 1381.55, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 10.00 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.10 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.93 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:5699.

IBOKIN Co., Ltd. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
4125	73 Outperform	¥14.02B	16.86	―	1.87%	7.54%	-0.55%
5698	73 Outperform	¥30.40B	16.56	―	2.62%	-9.37%	590.66%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
5699	62 Neutral	¥5.48B	8.88	―	1.80%	-0.27%	0.09%
4245	57 Neutral	¥10.29B	22.26	―	3.34%	7.12%	-43.68%
2195	56 Neutral	¥6.14B	19.76	―	1.36%	3.68%	-24.83%
4657	56 Neutral	¥2.30B	54.17	―	1.93%	-1.19%	-89.91%