Miyoshi Oil & Fat Co., Ltd. (4404) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥24.29B
• Dividend Yield: 2.54%
• Average Volume (3M): 63.30K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 2.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.68
• Revenue Growth: 2.80%
• EPS Growth: 154.89%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 577
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Packaged Foods
• EPS (TTM): 45.35
• Shares Outstanding: 10,306,895
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 78,640
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 63,296
• PEG Ratio: 0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.55
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.40
• P/FCF Ratio: -8.30
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥2,673.00 ▲(23.64% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 02/18/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 02/18/26

The score is driven primarily by improving financial performance (revenue growth, profitability rebound, and a stronger balance sheet) and very attractive valuation (low P/E with a solid dividend yield). The main constraints are weak/volatile cash conversion (negative 2025 free cash flow) and mixed short-term technical momentum despite an overall longer-term uptrend.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Sustained top-line growth across multiple years indicates enduring demand for the company’s oil- and fat-derived products and/or improved pricing. Over a 2–6 month horizon this supports predictable order flows, better capacity utilization and the ability to invest in higher-margin specialty formulations.

Profitability Rebound

A multi-year recovery culminating in a large net-income increase in 2025 suggests improved cost control, pricing power or favorable product mix that can persist. Durable earnings improvement enhances retained-earnings accumulation, supports dividends and funds strategic investments over the medium term.

Stronger Balance Sheet

Meaningful equity growth and lower debt reduce leverage and increase resilience to commodity cycles. Stronger balance-sheet metrics provide capacity to fund working capital swings, opportunistic capex or M&A, and reduce refinancing risk over a multi-month to multi-year horizon.

Negative Factors

Volatile Cash Conversion

Inconsistent conversion of earnings into cash — including a negative FCF in 2025 — signals working-capital swings or timing of investments. This undermines the company’s ability to self-fund growth, sustain payouts or build cushions, raising reliance on external financing over time.

Margin Volatility

Year-to-year swings in operating profit despite revenue gains indicate margins are sensitive to input costs, product mix or one-offs. Persistent margin instability makes earnings less predictable, complicates planning for reinvestment and increases operating risk over the medium term.

Feedstock Price Exposure

Core profitability depends on the spread between volatile lipid feedstock prices and selling prices. Structural exposure to commodity inputs means prolonged raw-material swings or limited pass-through could compress margins and force tighter procurement or hedging strategies going forward.

Miyoshi Oil & Fat Co., Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Miyoshi Oil & Fat Co., Ltd. (4404) is a prominent Japanese company specializing in the production and distribution of edible oils and fats. The company operates primarily in the food sector, offering a diverse range of products including cooking oils, margarine, shortening, and other fat-based ingredients used in various culinary applications. With a commitment to quality and innovation, Miyoshi Oil & Fat serves both domestic and international markets, catering to the needs of food manufacturers, restaurants, and consumers alike.

How the Company Makes Money

Miyoshi Oil & Fat generates revenue through the sale of its core products, primarily edible oils and fat-based ingredients. The company operates a diversified revenue model that includes direct sales to food manufacturers and businesses, as well as retail distribution to consumers. Key revenue streams include bulk sales of cooking oils to commercial clients, packaged oils for grocery stores, and specialty products for specific culinary applications. Additionally, the company may engage in partnerships and collaborations with food producers and restaurants, enhancing its market reach and driving sales. Factors contributing to its earnings include fluctuating raw material prices, consumer demand trends, and the company’s ability to innovate and adapt to changing dietary needs.

Miyoshi Oil & Fat Co., Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Fundamentals are improving with steady revenue growth and a strong rebound in profitability after 2022, plus a stronger 2025 balance sheet (higher equity and lower debt). Offsetting this, cash flow quality is weak and inconsistent, with volatile free cash flow and a negative 2025 FCF, and margins showing volatility.

Income Statement

Revenue has been steadily growing over the past several years (from 2020 through 2025), indicating improving demand and/or pricing. Profitability recovered strongly after a loss in 2022, with solid positive earnings in 2023–2024, and a very large jump in net income in 2025. The main weakness is margin volatility: operating profit peaked in 2024 but fell in 2025 (despite higher sales), suggesting cost pressure or non-recurring items driving results. Overall, earnings momentum is positive, but year-to-year profitability consistency is a key watch item.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks reasonably solid with equity expanding meaningfully by 2025 and debt declining versus 2024, improving financial flexibility. Prior years showed moderate leverage (debt-to-equity in the ~0.37–0.66 range in 2020–2024), with leverage highest in 2024 before improving in 2025. The key risk is that debt levels have fluctuated across the cycle, so continued discipline on borrowings and protection of equity gains matter.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is mixed. Operating cash flow is positive in most years but turned sharply negative in 2022 and has not shown a clear upward trend since, and free cash flow has been volatile—positive in 2021, 2023, and 2024, but negative again in 2025. This pattern suggests earnings are not consistently translating into cash and that investment or working-capital swings can pressure liquidity. The positive is that operating cash flow returned to positive after 2022, but the negative 2025 free cash flow is a notable concern.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	58.04B	59.47B	57.03B	56.24B	52.74B	47.48B
Gross Profit	10.71B	11.27B	11.63B	9.63B	5.09B	7.15B
EBITDA	15.53B	3.65B	6.00B	4.79B	1.48B	2.73B
Net Income	9.16B	9.62B	2.82B	2.08B	-267.00M	677.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	86.71B	84.16B	72.71B	62.44B	58.67B	52.62B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	19.30B	9.67B	7.07B	6.11B	4.96B	5.53B
Total Debt	21.17B	15.09B	20.55B	11.61B	12.47B	9.25B
Total Liabilities	47.27B	41.49B	41.64B	34.19B	34.11B	27.33B
Stockholders Equity	39.39B	42.63B	31.03B	28.21B	24.52B	25.26B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	-2.84B	347.00M	1.84B	-4.93B	978.00M
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	2.35B	3.28B	3.72B	-3.56B	3.35B
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	5.31B	-2.52B	-1.49B	176.00M	-1.44B
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	-5.22B	196.00M	-1.07B	2.81B	-1.24B

Miyoshi Oil & Fat Co., Ltd. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 2162.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:4404, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 2162 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2469.40, below the 50-day MA of 2428.06, and above the 200-day MA of 2063.49, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -36.41 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.31 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.93 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for JP:4404.

Miyoshi Oil & Fat Co., Ltd. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
2612	74 Outperform	¥48.30B	17.10	―	2.55%	8.21%	20.27%
2809	71 Outperform	¥622.46B	20.30	9.28%	1.30%	5.50%	27.32%
4404	69 Neutral	¥24.29B	2.52	―	2.54%	2.80%	154.89%
2602	69 Neutral	¥197.70B	8.38	12.56%	3.44%	3.80%	63.03%
2613	65 Neutral	¥69.15B	18.79	―	3.77%	-3.91%	-25.32%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
2607	57 Neutral	¥342.82B	15.70	―	1.45%	20.02%	―