Daicel (4202) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥435.63B
• Dividend Yield: 4.27%
• Average Volume (3M): 536.76K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 10.5
• Beta (1Y): 1.01
• Revenue Growth: -0.48%
• EPS Growth: -35.29%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 11,134
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Chemicals - Specialty
• EPS (TTM): 64.09
• Shares Outstanding: 266,942,700
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 480,400
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 536,760
• PEG Ratio: -0.88
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.98
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.60
• P/FCF Ratio: 15.09
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 196
• Revenue Forecast (FY): ¥576.88B

• Rating: 80 Outperform
• Price Target: ¥1,884.00 ▲(32.30% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 10/30/25
• Date: Action: Reiterated 10/30/25

Daicel's strong financial performance and attractive valuation are the primary drivers of its overall score. While technical indicators suggest some short-term bearishness, the stock's low P/E ratio and high dividend yield provide significant upside potential. The absence of earnings call data and corporate events does not impact the score.

Positive Factors

Revenue & Margin Trends

Daicel's steady revenue increase to ¥586.5bn and sustained gross margins above 27% indicate durable product demand and pricing power in specialty chemicals. Stable net margins around 8.4% support reinvestment and cash returns, reflecting operational resilience and long-term profitability.

Cash Generation

A 211.7% jump in free cash flow and an operating-cash-flow-to-net-income ratio of 1.89 show strong cash conversion from core operations. Robust FCF enhances liquidity, funds capex and debt service, and provides durable financial flexibility independent of short-term market moves.

Capital Efficiency & Equity Base

A solid equity ratio and double-digit ROE signal efficient use of shareholder capital and a healthy balance sheet foundation. Moderate leverage (D/E ~0.78) amplifies returns while the strong equity base supports investment capacity and creditor confidence over the medium term.

Negative Factors

High Absolute Debt

Although leverage metrics are moderate, the large nominal debt burden (¥280.9bn) increases refinancing and interest-rate exposure. In a stressed operating scenario or rising rates, high absolute debt can constrain strategic moves, limit capex flexibility, and pressure cash available for shareholders.

Earnings Weakness

A pronounced negative EPS growth rate indicates recent earnings deterioration or one-off impacts that reduced profitability. Sustained EPS weakness can erode retained earnings, limit capacity to fund growth or dividends, and signals management must restore margin drivers to reaccelerate value creation.

Automotive Cyclicality

Significant exposure to automotive OEM platforms ties a portion of revenue to vehicle production cycles. Auto demand swings directly affect utilization and order visibility for safety components, creating structural cyclicality that can amplify revenue and margin volatility across medium-term industry downturns.

Daicel Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Daicel Corporation manufactures and sells cellulosic derivatives, organic chemicals, plastics, pyrotechnic devices, and other products in Japan, Asia, North America, and Europe. It operates through Medical/Healthcare, Smart, Safety, Materials, Engineering Plastics, and Others segments. The company offers 1,3-Butylene glycol, polyglycerin, and thickener for cosmetics; natural health food materials and supplements; and chiral and achiral columns, chiral reagents, bio reagents, and DNA and RNA-based probes, as well as analytical/purification/synthesis/formulation services, and analytical tools services for pharmaceuticals. It also provides triacetylcellulose and films for display market; solvent for electronic materials, polymers for resist, and semiconductor process cleaning agents; and optical parts and lens units, silver nanoparticle inks, and organic semiconductor devices for visualization technology. In addition, the company offers inflators for air bags and pyro-fuse for automotive market, as well as safety device for non-mobility products; acetic acid and derivatives, cellulose acetate, acetate tow, and other raw materials for resins and inks, and solvents for paints; and cycloaliphatic epoxies, caprolactone, ketene derivatives, alkylamines, and other raw materials for electrical materials and coatings. Further, it provides a range of plastics, such as engineering plastics, plastic compound products, functional sheets, formed trays, and packaging films for engineering plastics segment. Additionally, the company manufactures and distributes water treatment systems and diffusers for a range of industrial applications. Its products are used in transportation, electronics, medical care, personal care, everyday life, and environment and energy applications. The company was formerly known as Daicel Chemical Industries, Ltd. and changed its name to Daicel Corporation in October 2011. Daicel Corporation was incorporated in 1919 and headquartered in Osaka, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Daicel generates revenue through several key streams, primarily from the manufacturing and sale of its chemical products and materials. The company has a strong presence in the automotive sector, providing essential components such as airbags and safety systems, which are critical for vehicle manufacturers. Additionally, Daicel earns revenue from its pharmaceutical business, supplying active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) and excipients for drug formulation. The company also benefits from partnerships with major automotive and electronics firms, enhancing its market reach and enabling collaborative innovations. Factors contributing to its earnings include global demand for safety products, advancements in healthcare technologies, and the growing emphasis on environmentally friendly materials in various applications.

Daicel Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Daicel presents a sound financial standing with consistent revenue growth and healthy profit margins. The balance sheet is solid, though maintaining current debt levels is crucial. Cash flow generation has improved significantly, enhancing liquidity and financial flexibility.

Income Statement

Daicel shows strong financial performance with a consistent increase in total revenue over the years, reaching 586.5 billion JPY in 2025. The gross profit margin has remained robust, consistently above 27%. The net profit margin, while slightly fluctuating, is solid at 8.4% for 2025. Revenue growth rate from 2024 to 2025 is 5.1%, indicating steady growth. EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy, suggesting efficient operating performance.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio at approximately 0.78, indicating moderate leverage. The equity ratio is 44.2%, reflecting a strong equity base. Return on equity (ROE) stands at 13.7% for 2025, showing efficient utilization of equity to generate profits. However, the high level of total debt at 280.9 billion JPY poses some risk if not managed properly.

Cash Flow

Daicel demonstrates positive cash flow trends, with free cash flow growing significantly from 2024 to 2025, marking a 211.7% increase. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.89, indicating strong cash conversion efficiency. The free cash flow to net income ratio at 0.47 suggests adequate cash generation relative to earnings, although there is room for improvement.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2026	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	580.23B	586.53B	558.06B	538.03B	467.94B	393.57B
Gross Profit	161.18B	164.75B	159.28B	145.81B	138.61B	111.43B
EBITDA	127.63B	108.86B	111.40B	79.08B	75.84B	61.01B
Net Income	42.91B	49.48B	55.83B	40.68B	31.25B	19.71B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	839.85B	813.83B	839.17B	765.61B	698.84B	640.38B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	68.82B	65.14B	73.18B	93.84B	90.53B	91.54B
Total Debt	300.82B	280.92B	299.79B	317.83B	280.50B	267.60B
Total Liabilities	461.74B	438.79B	464.31B	455.17B	419.29B	395.38B
Stockholders Equity	362.67B	359.99B	358.90B	295.21B	272.02B	237.85B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	23.44B	7.52B	-25.08B	-4.48B	21.08B
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	93.41B	76.73B	26.85B	42.99B	57.87B
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-47.87B	-55.37B	-44.09B	-46.53B	-34.22B
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	-48.85B	-52.37B	19.96B	-5.45B	-17.05B

Daicel Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 1424.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:4202, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1424 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1594.70, below the 50-day MA of 1499.49, and above the 200-day MA of 1333.35, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 44.22 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 67.91 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 58.01 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:4202.

Daicel Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
4202	80 Outperform	¥435.63B	10.54	9.34%	4.27%	-0.48%	-35.29%
4205	79 Outperform	¥408.97B	12.16	9.65%	3.91%	0.87%	16.71%
4203	76 Outperform	¥527.48B	20.36	6.52%	1.82%	3.25%	-11.31%
4118	74 Outperform	¥333.84B	12.62	5.47%	3.41%	2.60%	9.50%
4208	65 Neutral	¥281.95B	7.93	1.47%	4.29%	-7.45%	-71.68%
4182	64 Neutral	¥846.59B	-52.21	-1.15%	3.49%	-6.83%	-123.67%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%

Daicel Corporate Events

Daicel Delays New COC Resin Plant as EU Packaging Shift Slows Demand

Daicel has revised its business plan for its cyclic olefin copolymer (COC) business and decided to postpone the start of operations at a new COC resin plant in Germany, following slower-than-expected demand growth and sharply higher construction and labor costs. The company had planned the second plant to support a projected rise in eco-friendly packaging demand in Europe around 2025, but implementation of EU Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation has shifted the market’s transition timeline toward 2030, dampening near-term demand and raising profitability risks. As a result, the start-up of the new plant has been pushed back from April 2026 to the fourth quarter of the fiscal year ending March 2027, while Daicel reassesses demand trends and supply-demand balance; it is also reviewing the impact on its current business plan and FY2026 consolidated results, with COC resin sales currently around ¥15 billion and revised volume forecasts now showing a year-on-year decline for FY2026 before growth resumes in FY2027.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4202) stock is a Hold with a Yen1620.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Daicel stock, see the JP:4202 Stock Forecast page.

Daicel Earnings Decline on Weaker Profitability but Full-Year Outlook and Dividend Remain Intact

Daicel reported consolidated net sales of ¥424.8 billion for the nine months ended December 31, 2025, down 1.8% year-on-year, with operating profit falling 25.0% to ¥32.4 billion and profit attributable to owners of parent declining 18.9% to ¥35.7 billion, reflecting a squeeze on profitability despite relatively stable top-line performance. The company’s financial position remained solid, with total assets rising to ¥884.1 billion and shareholders’ equity increasing, though the capital adequacy ratio edged down slightly to 43.5%. Daicel kept its dividend policy unchanged, maintaining a forecast annual dividend of ¥60 per share for the year ending March 31, 2026, and reiterated its full-year outlook, projecting a modest 0.6% decline in net sales to ¥583.0 billion and a sharper 23.8% drop in operating profit, alongside a slight 1.0% increase in full-year profit attributable to owners of parent, suggesting a focus on capital returns and stability even as earnings pressure persists.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4202) stock is a Hold with a Yen1620.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Daicel stock, see the JP:4202 Stock Forecast page.

Daicel Advances Share Buyback, Repurchasing 7.8 Million Shares Under Ongoing Program

Daicel Corporation has been actively repurchasing its own shares as part of a board-approved share buyback program, reflecting a capital allocation strategy aimed at enhancing shareholder value and optimizing its capital structure. In January 2026, the company acquired 1,715,800 shares of its common stock on the Tokyo Stock Exchange for approximately ¥2.49 billion, bringing total repurchases under the current program to 7,804,000 shares and about ¥10.35 billion as of January 31, 2026, against a maximum authorized limit of 11 million shares and ¥15 billion through the end of March 2026, signaling continued commitment to returning cash to shareholders and potentially supporting its share price.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4202) stock is a Hold with a Yen1623.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Daicel stock, see the JP:4202 Stock Forecast page.

Daicel to Absorb Polyplastics’ Operating Business and Rename Subsidiary HPP Holdings

Daicel Corporation will integrate all operating businesses of its wholly owned subsidiary Polyplastics Co., Ltd. into the parent company via a simplified absorption-type company split effective April 1, 2026, while excluding Polyplastics’ shareholding and asset-management functions. As part of this reorganization, Polyplastics will be renamed HPP Holdings Co., Ltd., and the names of its domestic and overseas affiliates will also be changed, as Daicel seeks to create a “New Daicel” by consolidating engineering plastics operations, sharing technical service and solution capabilities, strengthening collaboration with its other businesses, optimizing group-wide human resources and improving corporate function efficiency, with the aim of enhancing corporate value and further reinforcing its position in the high-performance plastics market.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4202) stock is a Hold with a Yen1380.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Daicel stock, see the JP:4202 Stock Forecast page.

Daicel Advances Share Buyback, Repurchasing Over 6 Million Shares by Year-End 2025

Daicel Corporation has reported progress on its ongoing share buyback program, acquiring 1,878,500 shares of its common stock for approximately ¥2.53 billion on the Tokyo Stock Exchange between December 1 and December 31, 2025. This forms part of a broader board-approved repurchase plan, authorized in November 2025, that allows for up to 11 million shares or ¥15 billion to be bought back by March 31, 2026 via market purchases and off-auction trading. As of December 31, 2025, Daicel has cumulatively repurchased 6,088,200 shares for about ¥7.85 billion, signaling continued capital return to shareholders and potential enhancement of per-share value through a reduced share count.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4202) stock is a Hold with a Yen1380.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Daicel stock, see the JP:4202 Stock Forecast page.

Daicel Corporation Announces Treasury Stock Acquisition

Daicel Corporation announced the acquisition of 4,209,700 shares of its treasury stock, amounting to over 5.3 billion yen, between November 10 and November 30, 2025. This move is part of a broader strategy approved by the Board of Directors to acquire up to 11 million shares, representing 4.14% of outstanding shares, by March 31, 2026, to enhance shareholder value and optimize capital structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4202) stock is a Hold with a Yen1380.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Daicel stock, see the JP:4202 Stock Forecast page.