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Air Water Inc. (JP:4088)
:4088

Air Water (4088) AI Stock Analysis

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JP:4088

Air Water

(4088)

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Neutral 69 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
¥2,698.00
▲(17.23% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:10/29/25
Air Water's strong financial performance and attractive valuation are offset by bearish technical indicators. The company's robust revenue growth and stable profitability are positive, but the decline in free cash flow and negative market momentum present challenges. The low P/E ratio and high dividend yield suggest potential value, but caution is advised due to current market trends.
Positive Factors
Recurring on-site supply contracts
Air Water's reliance on long-term on-site supply contracts creates durable, contracted cash flows once facilities are operating. These agreements reduce revenue volatility, support predictable utilization of capital assets, and underpin multi‑year revenue visibility for investment and planning.
Scale and integrated logistics
The company's integrated production, distribution and engineering capabilities create cost and service advantages. Scale in bulk, cylinder and pipeline delivery raises barriers to entry, supports customer retention in industrial and healthcare segments, and sustains margin competitiveness.
Healthy capitalization with moderate leverage
A moderate debt load and a strong equity ratio give financial flexibility to fund projects and withstand shocks. ROE near 10% shows reasonable returns on capital, enabling reinvestment in plants and on-site builds without immediate need for aggressive external financing.
Negative Factors
Declining free cash flow
A steep drop in free cash flow growth weakens the firm's ability to self-fund capex, maintenance of on-site plants, and dividends. Over a multi-month horizon this can force prioritization of projects, potential external funding, or slower fleet/plant expansion, reducing strategic optionality.
Weak cash conversion of earnings
Low operating cash conversion implies earnings are not translating into cash, possibly from working capital or capex intensity. Persistent weak conversion constrains liquidity for discretionary spending and increases sensitivity to interest or supply disruptions over the medium term.
Modest net and operating margins
Relatively thin net and operating margins limit the company's buffer against commodity, energy, or input cost inflation. With modest margin profiles, sustaining investment in efficiency or new on-site builds may compress returns unless operational improvements lift margins over time.

Air Water (4088) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

Air Water Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAir Water Inc. engages in the industrial gas, chemical, medical, energy, agriculture and food products, and other businesses in Japan. The company offers oxygen, nitrogen, argon, carbon dioxide, hydrogen, and helium; air separation systems; gas equipment and systems; argon-based shielding gases; special gases; and integrated engineering solutions. It also provides quinone and organic acid products, fine chemicals, custom synthesis services, pharmaceutical and agricultural chemical intermediates, electronic materials and printed circuit boards, and carbon materials. The company offers medical oxygen, nitric oxide, and liquefied helium; operates hospital facilities; offers endoscope systems, hyperbaric oxygen chambers, and respiratory-related equipment and operation equipment; provides medical supply inventory management and medical instruments sterilization; and offers oxygen concentrators and infusion pumps, hygiene materials, injection needles, dental technical equipment and materials, and nursing care products and equipment. It also provides liquefied petroleum (LP) gas, kerosene, and natural gas (LNG); water heaters, stoves, boilers, kitchens, toilets, unit baths, garages, and carports; LP gas-type mobile power source cars; LNG transport equipment; LP gas/kerosene lorries; hams and sausages; frozen food products; sweets; fresh vegetables; agricultural machineries; and soft drinks, vegetable beverages, and fruit beverages, as well as offers fruit and vegetable wholesale, processing, and retail services. The company offers high-pressure gas transport, general cargo transport, food logistics, and bodywork services; salt, environmental products, seaweed and adsorbent products, electricity services, and magnesia; aerosol products; and electronics materials, phenolic resins, O-rings, metal surface treatment services, artificial recycled wood, SiC substrates, and engineering services. Air Water Inc. was incorporated in 1929 and is headquartered in Osaka, Japan.
How the Company Makes MoneyAir Water generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily from the sale of industrial gases, which include oxygen, nitrogen, and argon used in various industries. The company also earns income from its water purification and treatment systems, which cater to both municipal and industrial clients. Additionally, Air Water has a logistics segment that provides transportation and supply chain solutions, contributing further to its earnings. Strategic partnerships with other companies in sectors such as healthcare and food processing enhance Air Water's market reach and create opportunities for cross-selling its products and services, bolstering its overall revenue.

Air Water Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Air Water demonstrates strong revenue growth and stable profitability, supported by a solid balance sheet with moderate leverage. However, the decline in free cash flow growth is a concern, indicating potential challenges in cash management.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Air Water's income statement shows robust revenue growth, with a TTM revenue growth rate of 90.8%, indicating strong market demand. The gross profit margin of 21.7% and net profit margin of 4.6% are stable, reflecting efficient cost management. However, the EBIT margin of 6.8% and EBITDA margin of 10.3% suggest room for improvement in operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a healthy equity position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.84, indicating moderate leverage. The return on equity (ROE) of 9.9% demonstrates effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio of 42.1% shows a strong capital structure, though there is potential risk if debt levels increase.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
The cash flow statement reveals a decline in free cash flow growth by 39.1% TTM, which could impact future investments. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 0.28 indicates adequate cash generation relative to net income. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.18 suggests limited cash availability for discretionary spending.
BreakdownTTMMar 2025Mar 2025Mar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.08T1.08T1.02T1.00T888.67B806.63B
Gross Profit238.76B231.53B220.27B200.08B199.11B180.90B
EBITDA110.89B124.30B115.51B106.34B107.95B88.84B
Net Income7.74B49.08B44.36B40.14B43.21B27.37B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.15T1.25T1.22T1.09T1.02T926.82B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments63.79B70.61B64.97B65.94B59.55B45.98B
Total Debt423.55B446.73B443.25B390.21B373.74B337.82B
Total Liabilities693.95B713.29B714.21B645.16B602.17B554.43B
Stockholders Equity444.75B517.14B488.56B430.23B395.13B357.80B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow18.36B25.76B16.16B-9.72B25.24B24.57B
Operating Cash Flow90.24B93.24B79.63B56.95B71.57B76.60B
Investing Cash Flow-58.57B-62.17B-97.97B-71.14B-53.15B-52.70B
Financing Cash Flow-27.97B-27.34B14.72B19.26B-6.62B-20.89B

Air Water Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price2301.50
Price Trends
50DMA
2288.88
Negative
100DMA
2254.55
Negative
200DMA
2258.87
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-61.22
Positive
RSI
41.09
Neutral
STOCH
84.92
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:4088, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2301.5 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2255.53, above the 50-day MA of 2288.88, and above the 200-day MA of 2258.87, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -61.22 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.09 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.92 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:4088.

Air Water Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
75
Outperform
¥747.95B21.1212.15%1.58%2.62%2.81%
74
Outperform
¥333.27B12.625.47%3.41%2.60%9.50%
69
Neutral
¥481.73B63.9810.06%3.06%4.35%7.88%
64
Neutral
$1.47T21.243.63%3.98%-1.17%
64
Neutral
¥920.69B-56.78-1.15%3.49%-6.83%-123.67%
61
Neutral
$10.43B7.12-0.05%2.87%2.86%-36.73%
61
Neutral
¥913.33B52.392.02%3.82%-4.63%-65.11%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
JP:4088
Air Water
2,130.00
314.51
17.32%
JP:5201
AGC
6,930.00
2,665.42
62.50%
JP:4118
Kaneka
5,270.00
1,648.35
45.51%
JP:4182
Mitsubishi Gas Chemical Company
4,746.00
2,538.26
114.97%
JP:4183
Mitsui Chemicals
2,336.00
718.92
44.46%
JP:4403
NOF
3,168.00
1,155.30
57.40%

Air Water Corporate Events

Air Water Reissues English Results as Profitability Deteriorates in First Half 2025
Feb 17, 2026

Air Water Inc. has reissued its English-language consolidated financial results for the six months ended September 30, 2025, citing the need to align wording and formatting with Tokyo Stock Exchange examples and internal stylistic standards. The revisions include adding a translation disclaimer, standardizing presentation of negative figures and terminology, adjusting table headings, clarifying that comparative figures reflect restatements, aligning IFRS compliance wording with the Japanese original, and correcting typographical errors, without altering any numerical financial data.

The updated results show that revenue for the first half of fiscal 2025 rose 2.4% year on year to 516.6 billion yen, but the company swung to an operating loss of 5.4 billion yen and a loss attributable to owners of the parent of 21.2 billion yen. Equity attributable to owners of the parent decreased to 444.7 billion yen and total assets fell to 1.15 trillion yen as of September 30, 2025, underscoring a deterioration in profitability and balance sheet strength compared with the prior year and fiscal year-end levels.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4088) stock is a Hold with a Yen2698.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Air Water stock, see the JP:4088 Stock Forecast page.

Air Water Corrects EPS Figure in Sharply Downgraded Full-Year Forecast
Feb 16, 2026

Air Water Inc. has issued a correction to its recently announced revision of full-year financial forecasts for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, clarifying a minor numerical error in basic earnings per share. The company confirmed that while revenue and profit projections remain drastically reduced from the original forecast, the corrected basic earnings per share for the revised outlook is now stated as a loss of ¥43.63 instead of ¥43.52, reflecting a purely technical adjustment rather than a change in the underlying earnings outlook.

The updated guidance maintains revenue at ¥1.15 trillion with operating profit slashed to ¥14 billion from ¥84 billion and profit attributable to owners of parent revised to a loss of ¥10 billion from a previously expected profit of ¥53 billion. These figures underscore a sharp deterioration from both the initial forecast and the prior fiscal year’s results, reinforcing the scale of the company’s earnings downgrade even though the latest notice is limited to correcting the per-share loss figure.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4088) stock is a Hold with a Yen2698.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Air Water stock, see the JP:4088 Stock Forecast page.

Air Water Publishes Redacted Special Investigation Report to Address Governance Concerns
Feb 16, 2026

Air Water Inc. has released the public version of an investigation report compiled by a Special Investigating Committee, following internal scrutiny into unspecified matters at the company. After receiving the report dated February 9, 2026, the company completed procedures including partial non-disclosure of sensitive sections before publishing the material in Japanese.

Management emphasized that certain portions of the report have been withheld to protect personal and confidential information, while expressing apologies to shareholders, investors, and other stakeholders for the concern caused. The publication marks a formal step in addressing governance issues under review and signals to the market that the company is attempting to restore transparency and stakeholder confidence through a structured disclosure process.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4088) stock is a Hold with a Yen2698.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Air Water stock, see the JP:4088 Stock Forecast page.

Air Water Hit with Qualified Audit Opinion After Wide-Ranging Accounting Probe
Feb 16, 2026

Air Water Inc. disclosed that its accounting auditor, KPMG AZSA LLC, issued a qualified conclusion on the company’s interim consolidated financial statements for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026. The qualification stems from the discovery of inappropriate accounting treatments at the parent company and multiple subsidiaries, including deferral of inventory losses, revenue manipulation, and improper asset accounting, which forced restatements of comparative figures and has shaken confidence in the firm’s governance and financial reporting.

The issues were uncovered after a 2025 finding at a subsidiary prompted broader internal and external investigations involving interviews, digital forensics, surveys, and whistleblower measures across the group. While restatements have been reflected in the latest interim condensed consolidated accounts, prior-period reports have not been amended and the investigations remain ongoing, leaving investors and other stakeholders facing continued uncertainty over the full extent of past misstatements and potential further corrections.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4088) stock is a Hold with a Yen2698.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Air Water stock, see the JP:4088 Stock Forecast page.

Air Water Restates Earnings After Accounting Probe, Files Delayed Semi-Annual Report
Feb 13, 2026

Air Water has submitted its semi-annual report for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, to the Kanto Local Finance Bureau after receiving an extension of the filing deadline. The company also restated past consolidated financial statements, acknowledging inappropriate accounting treatments and issuing an apology to shareholders and investors.

An internal review in 2025 uncovered improper inventory-related accounting at a subsidiary, which further investigations revealed to be more widespread across the group, involving premature revenue recognition, inventory overstatements, and other manipulations. A Special Investigating Committee and external experts conducted extensive interviews, digital forensics, and surveys, leading to retroactive corrections including revenue misstatements of ¥530 million in the current interim period and ¥3,353 million in the prior interim period, underscoring significant governance and internal control issues.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4088) stock is a Hold with a Yen2699.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Air Water stock, see the JP:4088 Stock Forecast page.

Air Water Swings to Projected Loss After Accounting Probe and Overseas Impairments
Feb 13, 2026

Air Water Inc. has sharply revised its full-year forecast for the year ending March 31, 2026, keeping revenue unchanged at ¥1.15 trillion but slashing expected operating profit from ¥84 billion to ¥14 billion and projecting a ¥10 billion net loss attributable to owners. The downgrade follows the discovery of improper accounting practices, the launch of a Special Investigation Committee, and a broad re-examination of internal controls and financial figures.

The new outlook reflects large impairment losses on goodwill and other assets, primarily in overseas businesses, alongside significant costs tied to the investigation and additional audit and inventory procedures. Air Water is also absorbing losses from withdrawing from its overseas cryogenic equipment business and certain hydrogen-related investments, as well as from optimizing inventory valuation, while cautioning that further adjustments may emerge as its probes and audits continue, though its dividend forecast remains unchanged.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4088) stock is a Hold with a Yen2699.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Air Water stock, see the JP:4088 Stock Forecast page.

Air Water Swings to Interim Loss but Maintains Full-Year Dividend Plan
Feb 13, 2026

Air Water reported consolidated revenue of ¥516.6 billion for the six months ended September 30, 2025, up 2.4% year on year, but swung to an operating loss of ¥5.4 billion and a net loss attributable to owners of the parent of ¥21.2 billion, compared with solid profits a year earlier. Equity attributable to owners declined to ¥444.8 billion and the equity ratio was broadly flat at 38.56%, while basic earnings per share turned negative at ¥-92.42, underscoring a sharp deterioration in profitability.

Despite the downturn, the company raised its interim dividend to ¥37.50 per share from ¥32.00 a year earlier and kept its full-year dividend forecast at ¥75.00, signaling a commitment to shareholder returns. Management revised full-year guidance, now expecting revenue of ¥1.15 trillion but projecting a steep drop in operating profit to ¥14.0 billion and a full-year net loss of ¥10.0 billion, indicating that earnings headwinds are likely to persist and could weigh on investor sentiment and capital allocation decisions.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4088) stock is a Hold with a Yen2699.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Air Water stock, see the JP:4088 Stock Forecast page.

Air Water Unveils Governance Reforms After Probe Finds Improper Accounting
Feb 13, 2026

Air Water has disclosed that a special investigative committee found inappropriate accounting within the group, including involvement by top management, and traced the problem to a long-standing corporate environment in which misconduct could be overlooked. In response, the board has approved an outline of recurrence prevention measures and elevated them to the highest management priority, aiming to reform corporate culture, governance and internal controls while reviewing its company-wide strategy and business portfolio to restore transparency and social trust.

The company’s internal analysis, led by a Management Reform Committee, concluded that excessive emphasis on hitting ambitious performance targets and a strong top-down management style created heavy pressure on frontline operations and discouraged the surfacing of problems. Rapid expansion via M&A outpaced the buildup of accounting and management functions and weakened the effectiveness of internal controls, contributing to ethical lapses and an unhealthy organizational culture that allowed improper accounting to occur.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4088) stock is a Hold with a Yen2699.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Air Water stock, see the JP:4088 Stock Forecast page.

Air Water receives interim probe report on accounting issues, plans restatements and reforms
Feb 12, 2026

Air Water Inc. has disclosed that a Special Investigating Committee of external experts, created after the discovery of inappropriate accounting practices involving loss deferrals at several subsidiaries and its Plant Gas Division, has submitted an interim investigation report dated February 9, 2026. The company will publish a redacted version of this report and continues to cooperate with the committee as further inquiries proceed, while apologizing to shareholders and other stakeholders for the disruption and concern.

In response to the findings, Air Water plans to amend past annual securities reports and related financial summaries once the investigation and its own additional reviews are complete. The company also aims to file its FY2026 semiannual securities report and second-quarter results by the extended February 13 deadline, has delayed the release of third-quarter FY2026 results due to unfinished investigative items, and is preparing governance and internal control reforms to prevent recurrence and restore trust.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4088) stock is a Hold with a Yen2699.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Air Water stock, see the JP:4088 Stock Forecast page.

Air Water Secures ¥113 Billion Commitment Line to Bolster Financial Base
Feb 12, 2026

Air Water Inc. has secured a ¥113.0 billion syndicated commitment line from Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, and Mizuho Bank, with the facility running from February 12, 2026 to January 29, 2027. The unsecured, unguaranteed line is intended to strengthen the company’s financial base by providing agile and stable access to liquidity, enhancing funding flexibility and reinforcing its balance-sheet resilience amid potential market or operational funding needs.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4088) stock is a Hold with a Yen2699.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Air Water stock, see the JP:4088 Stock Forecast page.

Air Water Delays Q3 FY2026 Earnings Release Amid Ongoing Accounting Probe
Feb 6, 2026

Air Water Inc. has announced that it will delay the disclosure of its consolidated financial results for the third quarter of the fiscal year ending March 2026 beyond 45 days after the quarter’s close, citing ongoing investigations into inappropriate accounting practices at several consolidated subsidiaries and within its Plant Gas Division. A special investigating committee of external experts, established in October 2025, is still examining previously identified loss deferrals related to inventories and other items, and the company has already obtained an extension to file its semi-annual securities report and second-quarter results by February 13, 2026; the timing of the third-quarter disclosure will be announced once determined, underscoring continued uncertainty around its financial reporting and potentially affecting investor confidence and regulatory scrutiny.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4088) stock is a Hold with a Yen2371.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Air Water stock, see the JP:4088 Stock Forecast page.

Air Water Elevates Outside Director to Board Chair Amid Governance Reforms
Jan 30, 2026

Air Water Inc. has promoted outside director Yoshihiro Senzai to chairperson of the board of directors, effective January 30, 2026, elevating an external member to lead the board. The move follows an ongoing investigation into inappropriate accounting practices at certain consolidated subsidiaries and other group companies, and is intended to quickly strengthen internal controls, enhance group-wide governance, and improve the effectiveness and oversight functions of the board, signaling to stakeholders a more robust corporate governance stance in response to the accounting issues.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4088) stock is a Hold with a Yen2371.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Air Water stock, see the JP:4088 Stock Forecast page.

Air Water Inc. Announces Leadership Change Amid Accounting Investigation
Dec 3, 2025

Air Water Inc. announced the resignation of its Chairman and Representative Director, Kikuo Toyoda, effective December 3, 2025, as part of an ongoing investigation into inappropriate accounting practices at its subsidiaries. The company plans to implement governance reforms and internal control measures under the leadership of a newly established Management Reform Committee to prevent future issues.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4088) stock is a Hold with a Yen2393.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Air Water stock, see the JP:4088 Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 29, 2025