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Nexi S.p.A. (IT:NEXI)
:NEXI
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Nexi S.p.A.
(NEXI)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
€4.50
▲(12.78% Upside)
Nexi S.p.A.'s overall stock score is driven by strong revenue growth and a solid dividend yield, but is tempered by cash flow challenges and bearish technical indicators. The earnings call provides a balanced view with both growth and challenges. The stock is fairly valued, but rising debt and negative market momentum are concerns.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Consistent revenue growth indicates expanding market reach and product adoption, reinforcing Nexi's position in the digital payments sector.
Shareholder Value Creation
Significant capital returns to shareholders demonstrate strong cash generation and commitment to shareholder value, enhancing investor confidence.
Net Financial Debt Reduction
Reducing financial leverage while returning capital to shareholders indicates robust financial management and strengthens balance sheet health.
Negative Factors
Rising Debt Levels
Increased debt levels can strain financial flexibility, potentially impacting Nexi's ability to invest in growth and manage economic downturns.
Cash Flow Challenges
Zero free cash flow indicates potential liquidity issues, limiting Nexi's capacity to fund operations and growth initiatives without external financing.
EBITDA Margin Pressure
Margin pressure from revenue mix changes can impact profitability, necessitating strategic adjustments to maintain operational efficiency.
Nexi S.p.A. (NEXI) vs. iShares MSCI Italy ETF (EWI)
Market Cap
€4.68B
Dividend Yield6.13%
Average Volume (3M)7.80M
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.6
Beta (1Y)1.07
Revenue Growth3.12%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryIT
Employees8,609
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)N/A
Shares Outstanding1,172,545,400
10 Day Avg. Volume6,390,525
30 Day Avg. Volume7,798,447
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.35
Price to Book (P/B)0.63
Price to Sales (P/S)1.09
P/FCF Ratio13.03
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
€5.28Price Target Upside32.33% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Nexi S.p.A. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionNexi S.p.A. provides electronic money and payment services to banks, financial and insurance institutions, merchants, businesses, and public administration in Italy. The company offers acquiring services; configuration, activation, and maintenance of POS terminals; fraud prevention; and dispute management services, as well as customer support services. It also provides a range of issuing services, such as issue, supply, and management of private and corporate payment cards; installation and management of ATM's; clearing services; and digital banking services for the management of current accounts and payments. In addition, the company offers software applications for invoice management and storage, prepaid card reloading, bill payments, and postal payments. Nexi S.p.A. has a strategic agreement with Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. to acquire the PBZ Card's merchant business in the Croatian market. The company was founded in 1939 and is based in Milan, Italy.
How the Company Makes MoneyNexi generates revenue through multiple key streams, primarily from transaction fees charged to merchants for processing payments via their platforms. The company earns a percentage of each transaction processed, which constitutes a significant portion of its income. Additionally, Nexi offers value-added services such as fraud prevention, analytics, and loyalty programs, for which they charge fees. Partnerships with major banks and financial institutions also enhance their offerings and revenue potential, as these collaborations expand their market reach and customer base. Furthermore, Nexi may generate income from subscription fees for software solutions and services provided to businesses looking to enhance their payment processing capabilities.
Nexi S.p.A. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Nov 04, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlights profitable growth and shareholder value creation, with strong performance in Germany and issuing solutions. However, it also outlines challenges from extraordinary events impacting revenue growth, margin pressure, and future pressure on issuing solutions. The sentiment is balanced with both positive and negative aspects.Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Overall Revenue and Growth
Revenues are up 2.8% for the 9 months and 1.8% in the quarter, with underlying growth at about 6% year-on-year, both in the 9 months and the quarter.
Merchant Solutions Growth in Germany
Merchant solutions in Germany are growing double-digit in the 9 months, with acceleration in the third quarter, supported by customer base and market share growth.
Shareholder Value Creation
EUR 1.1 billion of capital returned to shareholders across '24 and '25, with a 20% increase in remuneration to shareholders this year.
Net Financial Debt Reduction
Net financial debt is down to 2.6x EBITDA, notwithstanding the fact that EUR 600 million was returned to shareholders this year.
Issuing Solutions Performance
Issuing solutions had a very strong quarter with 6.5% to 6.6% growth, driven by volume growth, international debit product in Italy, and upselling.
Negative Updates
Bank Losses and Contract Renegotiations Impact
Revenue growth impacted by extraordinary events such as bank losses and contract renegotiation effects, with the peak expected in Q4.
EBITDA Margin Pressure
EBITDA margin suffered in the quarter due to a slightly different revenue mix and phasing effect on costs, impacting margin accretion.
Soft Performance in Poland
Slightly unfavorable volume mix in Poland with some pricing and mix effects in e-commerce.
Issuing Solutions Future Pressure
Issuing solutions expected to face pressure in Q4 due to project work phasing effects and in-sourcing from a large Nordic client.
Company Guidance
During the call, Nexi provided guidance for the remainder of 2025, confirming expectations of revenue growth in the low to mid-single digits year-on-year. The company anticipates generating excess cash exceeding EUR 800 million, with a high degree of confidence. EBITDA is projected to grow at about 3.5% for the first nine months with a 35-basis point margin expansion, although margin outcomes for Q4 will depend on volume and business mix. Nexi also highlighted the impact of extraordinary events, such as bank losses and contract renegotiations, which peaked in Q4 and are expected to start slowing down in 2026. The underlying growth, net of these effects, is around 6% year-on-year. The company emphasized its strategic focus on partnerships with ISVs, having added about 50 partners in 2025, and noted strong performance in Germany with double-digit growth in merchant solutions. Furthermore, Nexi has returned EUR 600 million to shareholders this year, a 20% increase over the previous year, while reducing net financial debt to 2.6x EBITDA.Nexi S.p.A. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Nexi S.p.A. shows robust revenue growth and stable gross profit margins, indicating operational efficiency. However, profitability is hindered by net losses, affecting net profit margins. The balance sheet is relatively strong with significant equity, but rising debt levels pose a risk. Cash flow challenges, particularly zero free cash flow in 2024, need addressing to ensure sustainable growth.Income Statement
Nexi S.p.A. shows a consistent revenue growth trend with a significant increase in total revenue from 2023 to 2024. However, net profit margin is low due to substantial net income losses in 2023, though there is recovery in 2024. Gross profit margin remains stable, indicating efficient cost management, while EBIT and EBITDA margins show fluctuating profitability.Balance Sheet
The company's balance sheet reflects moderate financial stability with a reasonable debt-to-equity ratio, although it has increased slightly from 2023 to 2024. Stockholders' equity remains strong, contributing to a healthy equity ratio. However, total debt levels have risen, posing a potential risk if not managed effectively.Cash Flow
Cash flow statements indicate challenges, particularly with operating and free cash flow showing volatility. Free cash flow was positive in prior years but zero in 2024, which may affect future investments and debt servicing. The lack of operating cash flow in 2024 is concerning and requires attention to improve liquidity management.| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.05B | 6.29B | 5.90B | 5.44B | 3.02B | 1.66B |
| Gross Profit | 3.36B | 3.66B | 2.40B | 2.36B | 1.26B | 784.28M |
| EBITDA | 2.30B | 2.27B | 1.37B | 1.41B | 615.77M | 421.86M |
| Net Income | 287.96M | 167.36M | -1.03B | 140.02M | 37.73M | 127.93M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 24.76B | 24.50B | 26.35B | 25.55B | 25.21B | 6.29B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 3.12B | 74.67M | 2.69B | 2.00B | 2.98B | 544.73M |
| Total Debt | 6.85B | 7.95B | 7.21B | 6.97B | 7.47B | 2.78B |
| Total Liabilities | 14.16B | 13.54B | 15.05B | 13.30B | 12.90B | 4.73B |
| Stockholders Equity | 10.58B | 10.93B | 11.27B | 12.23B | 12.30B | 1.55B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 385.68M | 527.05M | 772.98M | 558.39M | -47.29M | 169.40M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 615.63M | 974.03M | 902.42M | 1.09B | 234.37M | 304.60M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 1.47B | -353.86M | -1.52B | -1.94B | -439.61M | -1.20B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.96B | -1.35B | 88.81M | -240.24M | 1.59B | 941.17M |
Nexi S.p.A. Technical Analysis
Negative
3.99
Price Trends
4.10
Negative
4.55
Negative
4.79
Negative
Market Momentum
>-0.01
Positive
41.04
Neutral
12.29
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IT:NEXI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.99 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.07, below the 50-day MA of 4.10, and below the 200-day MA of 4.79, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.04 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.29 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for IT:NEXI.
Nexi S.p.A. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | €4.48B | 19.02 | 18.54% | 1.00% | 9.04% | 13.17% | |
64 Neutral | €9.10B | 128.90 | ― | ― | 38.31% | -30.40% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
61 Neutral | €694.80M | -155.12 | -1.19% | 2.02% | 14.90% | -123.79% | |
61 Neutral | €578.41M | 63.55 | 25.60% | 1.54% | 13.74% | -23.30% | |
59 Neutral | €4.68B | 17.57 | ― | 6.13% | 3.12% | ― | |
48 Neutral | €390.95M | -42.86 | -3.24% | ― | 1.84% | -15.49% |
* Technology Sector Average
IT:NEXI
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3.99
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-16.96%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.