Want to see IT:NEXI full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Nexi S.p.A.
(NEXI)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
€4.50
▲(13.64% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/29/26
The score is primarily constrained by weak and volatile profitability (including a large 2025 net loss and very weak ROE), despite strong cash generation. Technicals provide support with the stock trading above key moving averages, while valuation is mixed (high dividend yield but negative P/E). The latest earnings call was moderately positive due to reaffirmed guidance, strong excess-cash outlook, and continued deleveraging, tempered by subdued headline growth and business/macro headwinds.
Positive Factors
Strong Cash Generation
Robust excess-cash generation supports investment, debt service and shareholder returns. Its resilience alongside positive operating cash flow indicates that Nexi’s payment infrastructure converts activity into liquidity even when reported earnings are volatile.
Negative Factors
Severe Profitability Volatility
The scale of the recent loss and inconsistent earnings profile weaken confidence in sustainable profitability. Negative equity returns can constrain capital allocation and increase sensitivity to further impairments, restructuring costs or adverse operating developments.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong Cash Generation
Robust excess-cash generation supports investment, debt service and shareholder returns. Its resilience alongside positive operating cash flow indicates that Nexi’s payment infrastructure converts activity into liquidity even when reported earnings are volatile.
Read all positive factors
Nexi S.p.A. (NEXI) vs. iShares MSCI Italy ETF (EWI)
Market Cap
€4.86B
Dividend Yield7.29%
Average Volume (3M)7.80M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.24
Revenue Growth0.74%
EPS Growth-1357.50%
CountryIT
Employees9,570
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-2.73
Shares Outstanding1,174,753,500
10 Day Avg. Volume6,390,525
30 Day Avg. Volume7,798,447
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.74
Price to Sales (P/S)0.83
P/FCF Ratio6.44
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
€4.63Price Target Upside17.00% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)0.64
Revenue Forecast (FY)€3.64B
Nexi S.p.A. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Nexi S.p.A. specializes in providing comprehensive electronic money and payment solutions across Italy, catering to a broad client base including banks, financial and insurance institutions, retailers, businesses, and public administration bodies....
How the Company Makes Money
Nexi makes money mainly by providing payment infrastructure and related services to merchants, banks/financial institutions, and public or corporate clients. Key revenue streams typically include: (1) Merchant acquiring and acceptance services: Ne...
Nexi S.p.A. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Overall the call conveyed a constructive tone: management emphasized resilience, steady underlying growth (~5%), strong cash generation (EUR 400m H1) and disciplined cost control while reaffirming full-year guidance (including ~EUR 750m excess cash). However, it also acknowledged tangible near-term headwinds — modest headline revenue growth (1%), Merchant Solutions pressure from bank contract churn, Germany softness, and project phasing risks — which temper upside. On balance the positives (cash generation, debt reduction, strategic progress and guidance reiteration) slightly outweigh the challenges.Positive Updates
Top-line Growth and Underlying Momentum
Revenues grew 1% overall in H1 2026, with underlying growth steady at around 5% as reiterated by management; year-to-date revenues were slightly above EUR 1.7 billion.
Negative Updates
Modest Overall Revenue Growth
Group revenues only grew 1% in H1 2026, meaning the underlying 5% momentum has not yet fully translated to headline growth across the business.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Top-line Growth and Underlying Momentum
Revenues grew 1% overall in H1 2026, with underlying growth steady at around 5% as reiterated by management; year-to-date revenues were slightly above EUR 1.7 billion.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reconfirmed full‑year 2026 guidance, saying revenues are on track to be in line with guidance with underlying growth around 5% and reiterating confidence in delivering about €750m of excess cash for 2026 (H1 excess cash €400m). YTD revenue is just above €1.7bn, up 1% versus 2025, YTD EBITDA €870m (Q2 EBITDA €473m) and H1 EBITDA margin 50.1% (2025: 50.6%). By business, Merchant Solutions H1 was -0.8% (Q2 broadly stable; underlying ~+3%), Issuing ~+3% H1 (Q2 +1.5%; value of managed transactions +7% H1) and DBS Q2 +6% / H1 +4.5% (DBS and Issuing FY growth expected low single digits). Key cash and cost metrics: H1 CapEx ~€168m, total costs €866m versus €850m (<2% increase) with personnel costs ~+4%; the group repaid ~€1bn gross debt, paid a €350m dividend in May, started the year with just under €2bn cash, and has reduced gross leverage/net cash while maintaining investment‑grade ratings.Nexi S.p.A. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
48
Neutral
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 6.33B | 6.27B | 6.29B | 5.90B | 5.44B | 3.02B |
| Gross Profit | 2.64B | 3.62B | 3.66B | 2.40B | 2.36B | 1.26B |
| EBITDA | -2.11B | -1.99B | 2.27B | 1.37B | 1.41B | 615.77M |
| Net Income | -3.35B | -3.38B | 167.36M | -1.03B | 140.02M | 37.73M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 19.54B | 20.23B | 24.50B | 26.35B | 25.55B | 25.21B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 5.25B | 5.87B | 74.67M | 2.69B | 2.00B | 2.98B |
| Total Debt | 5.90B | 6.78B | 7.95B | 7.21B | 6.97B | 7.47B |
| Total Liabilities | 12.73B | 13.15B | 13.54B | 15.05B | 13.30B | 12.90B |
| Stockholders Equity | 6.80B | 7.06B | 10.93B | 11.27B | 12.23B | 12.30B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 779.00M | 806.00M | 527.05M | 772.98M | 558.39M | -47.29M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.20B | 1.23B | 974.03M | 902.42M | 1.09B | 234.37M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -531.00M | -412.00M | -353.86M | -1.52B | -1.94B | -439.61M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.80B | -387.00M | -1.35B | 88.81M | -240.24M | 1.59B |
Nexi S.p.A. Technical Analysis
Neutral
3.96
Price Trends
3.91
Positive
3.67
Positive
3.51
Positive
Market Momentum
0.06
Positive
50.44
Neutral
13.93
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IT:NEXI, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 3.96 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.19, above the 50-day MA of 3.91, and above the 200-day MA of 3.51, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.44 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 13.93 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for IT:NEXI.
Nexi S.p.A. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
IT:NEXI
Nexi S.p.A.
4.12
-0.95
-18.80%
IT:TNXT
Tinexta SpA
15.00
0.36
2.46%
IT:MFT
Matica Fintec SpA
2.02
0.22
12.22%
IT:SIAV
Siav S.p.A.
2.90
0.86
42.16%
IT:VNT
Vantea Smart S.p.A.
0.78
-0.31
-28.64%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.