Nexi S.p.A. (IT:NEXI)
:NEXI
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Nexi S.p.A.
(NEXI)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
€3.50
▲(6.06% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:11/06/25
Nexi S.p.A.'s overall stock score is driven by strong revenue growth and a solid dividend yield, but is tempered by cash flow challenges and bearish technical indicators. The earnings call provides a balanced view with both growth and challenges. The stock is fairly valued, but rising debt and negative market momentum are concerns.
Positive Factors
Consistent revenue growth / underlying growth
Nexi reports a persistent revenue growth trend with underlying growth ~6% YoY, supported by recurring transaction fees and value-added services. This recurring revenue base and steady organic expansion support mid-term top-line resilience and predictable cash generation from core payments activity.
Negative Factors
Free cash flow and operating cash volatility
Zero free cash flow in 2024 and volatile operating cash indicates weaker near-term internal funding for growth and debt servicing. Persistent cash-flow volatility undermines ability to invest, pay down debt, or maintain shareholder returns without relying on external financing or one-time items.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Consistent revenue growth / underlying growth
Nexi reports a persistent revenue growth trend with underlying growth ~6% YoY, supported by recurring transaction fees and value-added services. This recurring revenue base and steady organic expansion support mid-term top-line resilience and predictable cash generation from core payments activity.
Read all positive factors
Nexi S.p.A. (NEXI) vs. iShares MSCI Italy ETF (EWI)
Market Cap
€3.87B
Dividend Yield6.13%
Average Volume (3M)7.80M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.28
Revenue Growth3.12%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryIT
Employees8,609
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.36
Shares Outstanding1,172,545,400
10 Day Avg. Volume6,390,525
30 Day Avg. Volume7,798,447
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.35
Price to Book (P/B)0.63
Price to Sales (P/S)1.09
P/FCF Ratio13.03
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
€3.87Price Target Upside17.32% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)0.65
Revenue Forecast (FY)€3.66B
Nexi S.p.A. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Nexi S.p.A. provides electronic money and payment services to banks, financial and insurance institutions, merchants, businesses, and public administration in Italy. The company offers acquiring services; configuration, activation, and maintenance...
How the Company Makes Money
Nexi generates revenue through multiple key streams, primarily from transaction fees charged to merchants for processing payments via their platforms. The company earns a percentage of each transaction processed, which constitutes a significant po...
Nexi S.p.A. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Nov 05, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlights profitable growth and shareholder value creation, with strong performance in Germany and issuing solutions. However, it also outlines challenges from extraordinary events impacting revenue growth, margin pressure, and future pressure on issuing solutions. The sentiment is balanced with both positive and negative aspects.Positive Updates
Overall Revenue and Growth
Revenues are up 2.8% for the 9 months and 1.8% in the quarter, with underlying growth at about 6% year-on-year, both in the 9 months and the quarter.
Negative Updates
Bank Losses and Contract Renegotiations Impact
Revenue growth impacted by extraordinary events such as bank losses and contract renegotiation effects, with the peak expected in Q4.
Read all updates
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Overall Revenue and Growth
Revenues are up 2.8% for the 9 months and 1.8% in the quarter, with underlying growth at about 6% year-on-year, both in the 9 months and the quarter.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
During the call, Nexi provided guidance for the remainder of 2025, confirming expectations of revenue growth in the low to mid-single digits year-on-year. The company anticipates generating excess cash exceeding EUR 800 million, with a high degree of confidence. EBITDA is projected to grow at about 3.5% for the first nine months with a 35-basis point margin expansion, although margin outcomes for Q4 will depend on volume and business mix. Nexi also highlighted the impact of extraordinary events, such as bank losses and contract renegotiations, which peaked in Q4 and are expected to start slowing down in 2026. The underlying growth, net of these effects, is around 6% year-on-year. The company emphasized its strategic focus on partnerships with ISVs, having added about 50 partners in 2025, and noted strong performance in Germany with double-digit growth in merchant solutions. Furthermore, Nexi has returned EUR 600 million to shareholders this year, a 20% increase over the previous year, while reducing net financial debt to 2.6x EBITDA.Nexi S.p.A. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
65
Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
40
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.05B | 6.29B | 5.90B | 5.44B | 3.02B | 1.66B |
| Gross Profit | 3.36B | 3.66B | 2.40B | 2.36B | 1.26B | 784.28M |
| EBITDA | 2.30B | 2.27B | 1.37B | 1.41B | 615.77M | 421.86M |
| Net Income | 287.96M | 167.36M | -1.03B | 140.02M | 37.73M | 127.93M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 24.76B | 24.50B | 26.35B | 25.55B | 25.21B | 6.29B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 3.12B | 74.67M | 2.69B | 2.00B | 2.98B | 544.73M |
| Total Debt | 6.85B | 7.95B | 7.21B | 6.97B | 7.47B | 2.78B |
| Total Liabilities | 14.16B | 13.54B | 15.05B | 13.30B | 12.90B | 4.73B |
| Stockholders Equity | 10.58B | 10.93B | 11.27B | 12.23B | 12.30B | 1.55B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 385.68M | 527.05M | 772.98M | 558.39M | -47.29M | 169.40M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 615.63M | 974.03M | 902.42M | 1.09B | 234.37M | 304.60M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 1.47B | -353.86M | -1.52B | -1.94B | -439.61M | -1.20B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.96B | -1.35B | 88.81M | -240.24M | 1.59B | 941.17M |
Nexi S.p.A. Technical Analysis
Neutral
3.30
Price Trends
3.23
Positive
3.60
Negative
4.31
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.02
Negative
60.31
Neutral
94.78
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IT:NEXI, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 3.3 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.95, above the 50-day MA of 3.23, and below the 200-day MA of 4.31, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.31 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 94.78 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for IT:NEXI.
Nexi S.p.A. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | €3.06B | 17.10 | 18.54% | 1.00% | 9.04% | 13.17% | |
62 Neutral | €9.85B | 80.63 | ― | ― | 38.31% | -30.40% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
61 Neutral | €707.83M | 54.11 | 33.79% | 1.54% | 13.74% | -23.30% | |
59 Neutral | €3.87B | -1.54 | ― | 6.13% | 3.12% | ― | |
54 Neutral | €334.43M | -51.58 | -3.24% | ― | 1.84% | -15.49% | |
51 Neutral | €681.49M | -15.45 | -1.19% | 2.02% | 14.90% | -123.79% |
* Technology Sector Average
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.