Nexi S.p.A. (NEXI) AI Stock Analysis

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Nexi S.p.A.

(NEXI)

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Neutral 57 (OpenAI - 4o)

Rating:57Neutral

Price Target:

€5.00

▲(7.30% Upside)

Nexi S.p.A.'s overall stock score is primarily influenced by its financial performance and technical analysis. While the company shows strong revenue growth and stable profit margins, profitability is a concern due to net losses and cash flow challenges. Technical indicators suggest bearish momentum, with the stock trading below key moving averages and in oversold conditions. The valuation is relatively fair, supported by a decent dividend yield, but the overall outlook remains cautious due to financial and technical headwinds.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Consistent revenue growth indicates strong market demand and effective business strategies, supporting long-term expansion and competitiveness.

Market Position

Being a market leader in digital payments in Italy positions Nexi well to capitalize on the growing fintech sector, enhancing its competitive edge.

Partnerships

Strategic partnerships expand Nexi's service offerings and customer base, fostering growth and innovation in payment solutions.

Negative Factors

Profitability Challenges

Net losses impact profitability, posing risks to financial health and requiring strategic adjustments to improve margins and sustain growth.

Rising Debt Levels

Increased debt levels can strain financial resources, limiting flexibility and potentially impacting future investment and growth opportunities.

Cash Flow Challenges

Zero free cash flow in 2024 highlights liquidity issues, potentially hindering Nexi's ability to invest in growth initiatives and manage debt effectively.

Nexi S.p.A. (NEXI) vs. iShares MSCI Italy ETF (EWI)

Market Cap

€5.62B

Dividend Yield5.43%

Average Volume (3M)6.28M

Price to Earnings (P/E)20.4

Beta (1Y)1.02

Revenue Growth3.12%

EPS GrowthN/A

CountryIT

Employees8,609

SectorTechnology

Sector Strength88

IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.27

Shares Outstanding1,230,192,300

10 Day Avg. Volume8,518,747

30 Day Avg. Volume6,276,076

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-0.35

Price to Book (P/B)0.63

Price to Sales (P/S)1.09

P/FCF Ratio13.03

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

€6.90

Price Target Upside48.07% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering5

Nexi S.p.A. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNexi S.p.A. provides electronic money and payment services to banks, financial and insurance institutions, merchants, businesses, and public administration in Italy. The company offers acquiring services; configuration, activation, and maintenance of POS terminals; fraud prevention; and dispute management services, as well as customer support services. It also provides a range of issuing services, such as issue, supply, and management of private and corporate payment cards; installation and management of ATM's; clearing services; and digital banking services for the management of current accounts and payments. In addition, the company offers software applications for invoice management and storage, prepaid card reloading, bill payments, and postal payments. Nexi S.p.A. has a strategic agreement with Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. to acquire the PBZ Card's merchant business in the Croatian market. The company was founded in 1939 and is based in Milan, Italy.

How the Company Makes MoneyNexi generates revenue primarily through transaction fees charged to merchants for processing payments, which constitute a significant portion of its income. The company also earns money from subscription fees for its payment solutions and services, including POS equipment and software solutions. Additionally, Nexi benefits from partnerships with banks and financial institutions, allowing it to expand its service offerings and customer reach. Strategic collaborations with e-commerce platforms and other technology providers further enhance its revenue streams by integrating payment solutions into various consumer touchpoints.

Nexi S.p.A. Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 31, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call reflected a generally positive outlook with notable growth in revenue, cost efficiency, and strategic shareholder returns. However, the company faces some client-related challenges and regional variability, which may impact future margins.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Profitable Growth Continued

Revenue increased by 3.7% in Q1 2025. Merchant Solutions grew by 4.5% year-over-year, despite leap year and Easter phasing disadvantages.

Cost Efficiency and EBITDA Margin Expansion

Cost growth was limited to 0.8%, with EBITDA increasing by 7.1% and an EBITDA margin expansion of approximately 150 basis points.

Shareholder Returns and Investment Grade Status

Nexi announced a return of €600 million to shareholders in 2025, a 20% increase from the previous year. The company was upgraded to investment grade by S&P and Fitch.

Strong Market Performance in Germany

Merchant Solutions in Germany grew by 9%, indicating market share gains and a focus on profitable segments.

Negative Updates

Challenges with Discontinued Clients

The company faced initial impacts from the loss of a time banking client, affecting volume growth.

Regional Performance Variability

The Nordics experienced weaker macro conditions, and DACH region was impacted by an issuing client exit, affecting top-line growth.

Potential Margin Pressure

The upcoming quarters are expected to see revenue erosion from bank situations in Italy and Merchant Services, as well as repricing challenges.

Company Guidance

During the first quarter of 2025, Nexi reported a revenue increase of 3.7%, driven by a 4.5% rise in Merchant Solutions compared to the previous year. Despite calendar challenges such as the leap year and Easter phasing, the company maintained strong cost efficiency, with costs growing by only 0.8%. This resulted in a 7.1% increase in EBITDA and an EBITDA margin expansion of nearly 150 basis points. Nexi is also set to return €600 million to shareholders in 2025, 20% more than the previous year, through a €300 million dividend and a €300 million share buyback. Additionally, they have been upgraded to investment grade by both Standard & Poor’s and Fitch, and completed a €2.9 billion financing plan. Nexi reaffirmed their full-year guidance, expecting low to mid-single-digit net revenue growth and at least a 50 basis point improvement in EBITDA margin.

Nexi S.p.A. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Nexi S.p.A. shows robust revenue growth and stable gross profit margins, indicating operational efficiency. However, profitability is hindered by net losses, affecting net profit margins. The balance sheet is strong with significant equity, but rising debt levels pose a risk. Cash flow challenges, particularly zero free cash flow in 2024, need addressing for sustainable growth.

Income Statement

Positive

Nexi S.p.A. shows a consistent revenue growth trend with a significant increase in total revenue from 2023 to 2024. However, net profit margin is low due to substantial net income losses in 2023, though there is recovery in 2024. Gross profit margin remains stable, indicating efficient cost management, while EBIT and EBITDA margins show fluctuating profitability.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The company's balance sheet reflects moderate financial stability with a reasonable debt-to-equity ratio, although it has increased slightly from 2023 to 2024. Stockholders' equity remains strong, contributing to a healthy equity ratio. However, total debt levels have risen, posing a potential risk if not managed effectively.

Cash Flow

Negative

Cash flow statements indicate challenges, particularly with operating and free cash flow showing volatility. Free cash flow was positive in prior years but zero in 2024, which may affect future investments and debt servicing. The lack of operating cash flow in 2024 is concerning and requires attention to improve liquidity management.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.05B	6.29B	5.90B	5.44B	3.02B	1.66B
Gross Profit	3.36B	3.66B	2.40B	2.36B	1.26B	784.28M
EBITDA	2.30B	2.27B	1.37B	1.31B	615.77M	473.09M
Net Income	287.96M	167.36M	-1.03B	140.02M	37.73M	127.93M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	24.76B	24.50B	26.35B	25.55B	25.21B	6.29B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.12B	74.67M	2.69B	2.00B	2.98B	544.73M
Total Debt	6.85B	7.95B	7.21B	6.97B	7.47B	2.78B
Total Liabilities	14.16B	13.54B	15.05B	13.30B	12.90B	4.73B
Stockholders Equity	10.58B	10.93B	11.27B	12.23B	12.30B	1.55B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	385.68M	527.05M	772.98M	558.39M	-47.29M	169.40M
Operating Cash Flow	615.63M	974.03M	902.42M	1.09B	234.37M	304.60M
Investing Cash Flow	1.47B	-353.86M	-1.52B	-1.94B	-439.61M	-1.20B
Financing Cash Flow	-1.96B	-1.35B	88.81M	-240.24M	1.59B	941.17M

Nexi S.p.A. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price4.66

Price Trends

50DMA

5.23

Negative

100DMA

5.18

Negative

200DMA

5.00

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.17

Positive

RSI

22.74

Positive

STOCH

3.93

Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IT:NEXI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.66 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.23, below the 50-day MA of 5.23, and below the 200-day MA of 5.00, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.17 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 22.74 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 3.93 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for IT:NEXI.

Nexi S.p.A. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
REY	67 Neutral	4.37B	18.54	16.24%	0.98%	9.04%	13.17%
WIIT	66 Neutral	501.29M	49.91	31.11%	1.58%	20.75%	-9.34%
TPRO	64 Neutral	4.88B	69.07	5.16%	―	38.31%	-30.40%
TNXT	60 Neutral	675.53M	168.61	2.40%	2.04%	17.21%	-80.93%
NEXI	57 Neutral	€5.62B	20.45		5.43%	3.12%	―
IOT	57 Neutral	392.94M	-25.19	-7.74%	―	-3.47%	-947.32%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%

* Technology Sector Average

Performance Comparison

IT:NEXI

Nexi S.p.A.

4.66

-1.44

-23.61%

GB:0RV0

Reply SPA

118.00

-15.86

-11.85%

DE:7GV

SECO S.p.A.

3.04

0.95

45.45%

DE:7T4

Tinexta SpA

14.53

2.87

24.61%

DE:9PC

WIIT SpA

18.10

-2.91

-13.85%

IT:TPRO

Technoprobe S.p.A.

7.61

1.33

21.18%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Sep 11, 2025