Aquafil SpA (ECNL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €118.52M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 301.52K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.45
• Revenue Growth: -3.18%
• EPS Growth: 61.77%
• Country: IT
• Employees: 2,498
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Apparel - Manufacturers
• EPS (TTM): -0.06
• Shares Outstanding: 73,172,200
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 388,480
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 301,517
• PEG Ratio: 0.32
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.93
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.23
• P/FCF Ratio: 10.77
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €1.80
• Price Target Upside: 31.39% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.14
• Revenue Forecast (FY): €555.04M

• Rating: 39 Underperform
• Price Target: €1.50 ▲(9.49% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 03/15/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 03/15/26

The score is driven primarily by weak financial performance (multi-year losses and high, worsening leverage), which outweighs the partial support from positive operating/free cash flow in 2025. Technical signals are also broadly bearish with price below key moving averages and negative MACD. Valuation is constrained by a negative P/E and no provided dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Integrated nylon production and recycling platform

Aquafil’s vertical model—polymer and yarn production combined with a recycling platform—creates durable competitive advantages: secured feedstock, control over quality across the value chain, and alignment with sustainable sourcing trends that support long-term customer relationships and margin premiums.

Positive operating and free cash flow in 2025

Resumption of positive operating and free cash flow in 2025 indicates the business can generate internal liquidity despite recent losses. Durable cash generation supports debt servicing, capex and working-capital needs, providing runway to stabilize operations and fund strategic investments without immediate external financing.

Return to positive EBIT and resilient EBITDA margins

Restoring positive EBIT and steady low-double-digit EBITDA margins signals core operational viability. This demonstrates cost structure resilience and suggests the underlying manufacturing business can support earnings before financing, which is crucial for long-term recovery if volumes and pricing normalize.

Negative Factors

High and rising leverage

Elevated debt-to-equity near 2.9x increases financial risk and reduces strategic flexibility. High leverage magnifies earnings volatility, raises refinancing and interest-cost pressures, and constrains capital allocation, making sustained investment and recovery more difficult if cash flow weakens or margins compress.

Multi-year revenue decline and recurring net losses

A declining top line over multiple years coupled with consecutive net losses points to structural demand or mix challenges. Losses erode equity, limit reinvestment capacity, and can weaken customer or supplier confidence, creating a longer runway required to rebuild scale and restore sustainable profitability.

Volatile cash flow history

Historical swings in operating and free cash flow undermine predictability for debt reduction and capex planning. Volatility raises refinancing risk and forces reliance on external funding in downturns, complicating long-term strategic investments and slowing the company’s ability to steadily deleverage.

Aquafil SpA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Aquafil S.p.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production, reprocessing, and sale of polyamide 6 fibers and polymers in Europe, the United States, and Asia. The company offers bulk continuous filament or synthetic yarns for the textile flooring sector, as well as used in hotels, airports, offices, etc., and residential buildings and the automotive market; nylon textile filaments for sportswear, classic, and technical or specialist apparels; and polymers products or plastic raw materials primarily for engineering plastics sector for use in molding industry, as well as manufactures and sells polymers for use in plastic-molded accessories in the fashion and designer furniture industries. It is also involved in the design and construction of industrial chemical plants. The company markets its products under the Dryarn and ECONYL brands. The company was founded in 1965 and is headquartered in Arco, Italy. Aquafil S.p.A. is a subsidiary of Aquafin Holding S.p.A.

How the Company Makes Money

Aquafil makes money mainly by manufacturing and selling polyamide (nylon) products across multiple stages of the value chain. Key revenue streams include: (1) sales of nylon yarns (including carpet yarns and other textile/technical yarns) to downstream manufacturers who convert them into finished goods such as flooring, apparel, and other industrial or consumer products; (2) sales of nylon polymer/caprolactam-derived intermediates (where applicable within its operations) used as feedstock for internal yarn production and/or sold to external customers depending on market conditions; and (3) sales of regenerated nylon products made from recycled waste streams, monetizing both the recycled-material content premium and demand from brands seeking lower-footprint materials. Earnings are influenced by volumes shipped, product mix (e.g., higher-value technical yarns versus more commoditized yarn), raw-material and energy costs (with pass-through dynamics depending on contract structures), and the company’s ability to secure supply of recyclable inputs and place regenerated nylon into customers’ sustainability-driven product lines. Specific partnership details or customer contract structures are not available here and are therefore null.

Aquafil SpA Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financial statements indicate a pressured profile: revenue has declined since 2022, net income is negative in 2023–2025, and leverage is high with debt-to-equity rising to ~2.9x in 2025. Offsetting factors are a return to positive EBIT in 2025 and generally positive operating cash flow with positive free cash flow in 2025, but overall profitability and balance-sheet risk remain the dominant concerns.

Income Statement

Aquafil SpA’s earnings profile has weakened meaningfully over the last three years. Revenue has declined from 2022 to 2025 (2025 down ~3% year over year), and profitability has deteriorated: net income is negative in 2023–2025, with 2025 showing a very thin gross profit level and a negative net margin. A partial positive is that operating profitability improved from negative EBIT in 2023–2024 to positive EBIT in 2025, and EBITDA margins have remained around low-double-digits, suggesting the core business still generates operating earnings before depreciation and financing. Overall, the trajectory is pressured, with inconsistent profitability and contracting top-line.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is high and has generally trended worse again in 2025. Debt to equity is elevated (about 2.9x in 2025 after ~2.2x in 2024), which limits flexibility and increases sensitivity to earnings volatility. Equity has declined versus 2024, consistent with recent losses, while total debt has risen. While total assets remain sizable, the capital structure is the key constraint, and negative returns on equity in 2023–2024 underscore the challenge of generating adequate shareholder returns under the current leverage.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is mixed but shows some resilience. Operating cash flow is positive in most years and improved in 2025 versus 2024, and free cash flow is also positive in 2025. That said, cash flow has been volatile (including negative operating and free cash flow in 2022), and free cash flow growth is sharply negative in 2024–2025 versus prior stronger periods. With net losses in recent years, the level of cash flow relative to accounting earnings remains an important support, but overall consistency is not yet strong.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	520.84M	542.13M	571.81M	684.90M	570.31M
Gross Profit	1.61M	109.49M	159.55M	204.31M	180.22M
EBITDA	60.07M	56.02M	39.84M	92.79M	63.98M
Net Income	-4.69M	-16.31M	-25.85M	29.15M	10.67M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	625.64M	655.26M	701.22M	724.96M	668.67M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	165.55M	130.37M	163.37M	120.65M	153.52M
Total Debt	377.32M	343.77M	411.90M	368.53M	332.39M
Total Liabilities	494.39M	496.91M	575.96M	549.55M	516.56M
Stockholders Equity	131.26M	158.35M	125.25M	175.40M	152.10M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	11.30M	1.47M	35.90M	-52.15M	49.44M
Operating Cash Flow	29.61M	23.25M	69.58M	-13.12M	89.05M
Investing Cash Flow	-21.21M	-24.03M	-33.22M	-38.63M	-40.25M
Financing Cash Flow	26.78M	-26.52M	10.62M	9.78M	-105.10M

Aquafil SpA Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 1.37
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IT:ECNL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.37 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.39, below the 50-day MA of 1.40, and below the 200-day MA of 1.53, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.24 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 71.97 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for IT:ECNL.

Aquafil SpA Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FPE	72 Outperform	€215.21M	8.96	―	2.17%	40.64%	104.21%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
GEO	43 Neutral	€90.08M	-7.08	-18.69%	―	-5.49%	-62.25%
ECNL	39 Underperform	€118.52M	-25.93	-4.91%	―	-3.18%	61.77%