doValue S.p.A (DOV) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €452.73M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.32M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 7.0
• Beta (1Y): 1.30
• Revenue Growth: 8.70%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: IT
• Employees: 3,458
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 80
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 0.05
• Shares Outstanding: 190,140,350
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 858,506
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,322,997
• PEG Ratio: -4.99
• Price to Book (P/B): 20.73
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 90.60
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €2.52
• Price Target Upside: 5.44% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3

• Rating: 74 Outperform
• Price Target: €2.50 ▲(4.60%Upside)

The overall score reflects strong technical momentum and a favorable valuation, tempered by financial performance challenges. While the stock shows potential for price appreciation, attention to improving profitability and managing leverage is critical for sustained growth.

Positive Factors

Commercial Growth

Strong commercial momentum demonstrated with €6.1bn of new business (GBV), representing 75% of the full year target.

Financial Performance

DoValue has shown solid progress in the most critical areas that had defined its recent past—namely GBV and EBITDA growth, and cash flow generation—coming in well ahead of conservative expectations across all metrics.

Strategic Positioning

DOV is benefiting from an improved competitive position, particularly in Italy, that the integration of Gardant is proceeding smoothly, and that the negative impact of NWC dynamics on FCF generation had ended.

Negative Factors

Cash Flow Challenges

The group has experienced challenges in recent years in growing cash flows and deleveraging, primarily due to lower-than-expected EBITDA and adverse, unexpected dynamics of payment advances and redundancy costs.

Market Conditions

Ongoing low liquidity in its NPE markets in the medium term, a demanding integration process ahead, and still significant leverage remain the main headwinds.

doValue S.p.A Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

doValue S.p.A. (DOV) is a leading operator in Southern Europe specializing in credit management and real estate services. The company primarily operates in Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece, and Cyprus, offering a comprehensive suite of services that include loan servicing, real estate management, and advisory services. doValue serves a broad range of clients including banks, financial institutions, and investors, helping them manage non-performing loans (NPLs) and optimize their real estate assets.

How the Company Makes Money

doValue S.p.A. makes money through several key revenue streams centered around its core competencies in credit management and real estate services. The primary source of revenue comes from servicing fees, which are charged to financial institutions and investors for managing their loan portfolios. This includes overseeing the collection of non-performing loans, restructuring debt, and maximizing recovery rates. Additionally, doValue earns income from real estate services, which involve managing and selling real estate assets to optimize value for their clients. The company also provides advisory services, offering strategic insights and solutions to clients navigating complex financial situations. Significant partnerships with major banks and financial institutions enhance doValue's ability to access large portfolios and consolidate its market position, contributing to its financial performance.

doValue S.p.A Financial Statement Overview

Summary

doValue S.p.A. shows stable financials with consistent revenue and cash flow generation. However, challenges exist with profitability and leverage. Improvements in profit margins and debt management are necessary for long-term stability.

Income Statement

doValue S.p.A. has shown resilient revenue growth over several years, although the growth rate has been inconsistent, with a significant drop in 2023. Gross profit margin has remained relatively stable, indicating consistent cost management. However, the net profit margin was under pressure due to fluctuating net income, especially in 2023, where a loss was recorded. EBIT and EBITDA margins have been consistent but not particularly strong, which reflects modest operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio is high, indicating significant leverage, which could pose risks if not managed carefully. However, the equity ratio shows some improvements, suggesting a better capitalization structure over time. Return on equity has been volatile, impacted by fluctuating net income and equity levels, but the recent increase in equity is a positive sign.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow has generally been positive, indicating strong cash generation from operations. However, free cash flow has shown volatility due to fluctuating capital expenditures and investments. The cash flow to net income ratios indicate that cash generation is sometimes misaligned with net income, suggesting potential inefficiencies or timing differences in cash flow recognition.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	484.07M	481.70M	559.78M	565.14M	419.32M
Gross Profit	246.83M	243.26M	294.07M	283.21M	195.57M
EBITDA	91.97M	104.84M	135.41M	176.95M	103.57M
Net Income	1.90M	-17.83M	26.48M	33.17M	-23.14M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.45B	1.03B	1.13B	1.18B	1.13B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	232.17M	112.38M	134.26M	168.18M	132.49M
Total Debt	776.83M	629.53M	618.44M	599.19M	571.85M
Total Liabilities	1.14B	926.87M	945.68M	990.63M	920.90M
Stockholders Equity	202.46M	53.03M	136.56M	156.65M	164.40M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	52.42M	69.51M	31.25M	58.40M	78.96M
Operating Cash Flow	76.19M	71.51M	62.30M	123.60M	98.95M
Investing Cash Flow	-183.48M	-21.36M	-31.06M	-64.77M	-254.44M
Financing Cash Flow	227.09M	-72.03M	-63.65M	-24.66M	159.81M

doValue S.p.A Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 2.39
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IT:DOV, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.39 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.27, above the 50-day MA of 2.06, and above the 200-day MA of 1.78, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.05 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 62.96 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.92 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for IT:DOV.

doValue S.p.A Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DOV	74 Outperform	€452.73M	7.03	6.61%	―	8.70%	―
IF	70 Neutral	€1.18B	6.96	9.47%	7.24%	9.92%	0.75%
Sector *	69 Neutral	€15.95B	12.26	14.11%	5.34%	7.09%	0.17%
CE	67 Neutral	€4.11B	5.98	17.03%	5.22%	8.72%	10.06%
PRO	66 Neutral	€109.24M	12.65	5.24%	6.63%	5.80%	-23.91%
ILTY	59 Neutral	€278.78M	4.92	-7.32%	6.76%	3.28%	-136.95%