doValue S.p.A (DOV) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €549.80M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.73M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 7.8
• Beta (1Y): 1.44
• Revenue Growth: 15.53%
• EPS Growth: -35.02%
• Country: IT
• Employees: 3,458
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): -0.02
• Shares Outstanding: 190,140,350
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 750,138
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,734,302
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €2.97
• Price Target Upside: 6.07% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3

• Rating: 60 Neutral
• Price Target: €3.00 ▲(7.14% Upside)

The overall stock score for doValue S.p.A is primarily influenced by its mixed financial performance and positive technical indicators. While the company shows operational efficiency and positive revenue growth, profitability and high leverage are significant concerns. The technical analysis suggests a bullish trend, which is a positive factor. However, the negative P/E ratio and lack of dividend yield weigh down the valuation score.

Positive Factors

Acquisition Impact

The acquisition of coeo represents a transformative step for DOV, enhancing its growth profile and accelerating the diversification process at the core of its long-term strategy.

Financial Performance

20% EBITDA beat and higher FCF generation driven by stronger results in Italy.

Negative Factors

Debt and Leverage

A slower improvement in free cash flow is expected with a net debt decline to €475m, leading to a leverage ratio of 2.2x, above the company’s target of 2.0x.

Liquidity Risk

The main risk at this stage remains the low liquidity in the group’s NPE markets.

doValue S.p.A Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

doValue S.p.A is a leading Italian company specializing in the management of non-performing loans (NPLs) and real estate assets. The firm operates primarily in the financial services sector, providing a wide range of services that include servicing and collecting distressed debt, asset management, and advisory services for banks and financial institutions. doValue has a strong presence in Southern Europe, particularly in Italy, Greece, and Spain, and aims to optimize the value of distressed assets while ensuring compliance with regulatory requirements.

How the Company Makes Money

doValue generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily by charging fees for its asset servicing and management services. This includes performance fees based on the recovery rates of the non-performing loans it manages, which incentivizes the company to maximize collections. Additionally, doValue may earn income from advisory services offered to financial institutions and other partners, aiding them in the management and resolution of distressed assets. Significant partnerships with banks and financial institutions across Southern Europe enhance its revenue potential, as these entities rely on doValue's expertise to manage their portfolios effectively. Furthermore, the company may also benefit from economies of scale as it expands its operations and increases its market share.

doValue S.p.A Financial Statement Overview

Summary

doValue S.p.A presents a mixed financial profile with moderate stability and growth prospects. The income statement reveals positive revenue growth and operational efficiency, albeit with some profit volatility. The balance sheet highlights relatively high leverage, which could pose risks under adverse conditions. Meanwhile, the cash flow statement reflects strong operational cash performance and improved free cash flow, indicating effective cash management. Overall, while there are strengths in growth and cash flow, the company’s financial leverage and profit stability warrant careful monitoring.

Income Statement

The income statement shows moderate growth and margin performance. The TTM data indicates a revenue growth rate of 7.92% compared to the previous year, reflecting a positive trend. Gross profit margin stands at 56.37% and net profit margin at 1.53%, showing adequate profitability with room for improvement. However, the historical trajectory shows fluctuating net income levels, suggesting some instability in profit generation. The EBIT and EBITDA margins of 16.10% and 25.01% respectively indicate reasonable operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet indicates moderate financial leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.19, which is relatively high, suggesting potential risk in terms of debt burden. Return on Equity (ROE) is low at 3.98%, reflecting limited profitability on shareholders’ equity. The equity ratio is 15.16%, indicating a modest portion of assets funded by equity, which could signal vulnerability to financial instability.

Cash Flow

The cash flow analysis shows strong operational cash flow performance with an operating cash flow to net income ratio of 16.35, indicating effective cash conversion from earnings. The free cash flow growth rate is 98.45%, showcasing robust improvement in free cash flow generation. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is 12.98, suggesting moderate cash flow coverage over earnings.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	547.79M	484.07M	481.70M	559.78M	565.14M	419.32M
Gross Profit	283.63M	246.83M	243.26M	294.07M	283.21M	195.57M
EBITDA	109.38M	91.97M	104.84M	135.41M	176.95M	103.57M
Net Income	-17.65M	1.90M	-17.83M	26.48M	33.17M	-23.14M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.29B	1.45B	1.03B	1.13B	1.18B	1.13B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	131.69M	232.17M	112.38M	134.26M	168.18M	132.49M
Total Debt	662.00M	776.83M	629.53M	618.44M	599.19M	571.85M
Total Liabilities	985.99M	1.14B	926.87M	945.68M	990.63M	920.90M
Stockholders Equity	197.80M	202.46M	53.03M	136.56M	156.65M	164.40M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	88.65M	52.42M	69.51M	31.25M	58.40M	78.96M
Operating Cash Flow	116.82M	76.19M	71.51M	62.30M	123.60M	98.95M
Investing Cash Flow	-198.31M	-183.48M	-21.36M	-31.06M	-64.77M	-254.44M
Financing Cash Flow	102.78M	227.09M	-72.03M	-63.65M	-24.66M	159.81M

doValue S.p.A Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 2.80
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IT:DOV, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.8 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.69, above the 50-day MA of 2.49, and above the 200-day MA of 1.89, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.11 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.84 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 71.02 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for IT:DOV.

doValue S.p.A Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	68 Neutral	$17.84B	12.03	10.32%	3.73%	9.70%	0.76%
DOV	60 Neutral	€549.80M	7.82	-13.55%	―	15.53%	-35.02%
0NBX	―	€1.42B	8.12	8.85%	―	―	―
0FP9	―	€107.93M	23.13	3.00%	―	―	―
0O5V	―	€1.02B	8.11	8.29%	―	―	―
0K93	―	€4.66B	7.14	15.88%	―	―	―
53D	―	€342.09M	4.84	-22.88%	―	―	―