Investar Holding (ISTR) Risk Analysis

Our business depends on our ability to successfully measure and manage credit risk. As a lender, we are exposed to the risk that the principal of and interest on a loan will not be paid timely or at all, and that the value of any collateral supporting a loan will be insufficient to cover any exposure to loss on a loan. Management maintains an allowance for credit losses, which is a reserve established through a provision for credit losses charged to expense, to absorb credit losses in the loan portfolio. The determination of the appropriate level of the allowance is inherently subjective, involves a high degree of judgment and complexity, and requires us to make significant estimates, all of which are subject to material changes. In June 2016, the Financial Accounting Standards Board ("FASB") issued a new accounting standard (Accounting Standards Update "ASU" 2016-13), referred to as Current Expected Credit Loss ("CECL") that requires that the measurement of all expected credit losses for financial assets held at the reporting date be based on historical experience, current conditions, and reasonable and supportable forecasts, and requires enhanced disclosures related to the significant estimates and judgments used in estimating credit losses, as well as the credit quality and underwriting standards of an organization's portfolio. In addition, the new standard amends the accounting for credit losses on purchased financial assets with credit deterioration. ASU 2016-13 became effective for us, as a smaller reporting company, on January 1, 2023. Please refer to Note 1. Summary of Significant Accounting Policies – Recent Accounting Pronouncements, for additional discussion. The CECL methodology requires that lifetime "expected credit losses" be recorded at the time the financial asset is originated or acquired, and be adjusted each quarter for changes in expected lifetime credit losses. The CECL methodology replaces multiple prior impairment models under U.S. GAAP that generally required that a loss be "incurred" before it was recognized, and represents a significant change from prior U.S. GAAP. Our ongoing estimates of expected credit losses will depend upon our models and assumptions, existing and forecasted macroeconomic conditions and the credit quality, composition and other characteristics of our loan and other applicable portfolios. We believe these factors are likely to cause variability in our expected credit losses under CECL compared to previous GAAP, and therefore an increase in the variability of our period-to-period net income. We believe that CECL is also likely to reduce comparability across financial services companies due to the ability to adopt different measurement approaches for expected credit losses and different economic assumptions used in each of the companies' models. Commercial and industrial and commercial real estate loans generally are viewed as having more risk of default than residential real estate loans or other loans or investments. These types of loans are also typically larger than residential real estate loans and other consumer loans. Because our loan portfolio contains a significant number of commercial and industrial and commercial real estate loans with relatively large balances, the deterioration of a material amount of these loans may cause a significant increase in our allowance for credit losses, non-performing assets, and/or past due loans. An increase in our allowance for credit losses, non-performing assets, and/or past due loans could result in a loss of earnings, or an increase in loan charge-offs, which would have an adverse impact on our results of operations and financial condition. Inaccurate management assumptions, including with respect to economic conditions affecting borrowers, new information regarding existing loans, identification of additional problem loans and other factors, both within and outside of our control, may require us to increase our allowance for credit losses. In addition, bank regulatory agencies periodically review the allowance for credit losses and may require an increase in the provision for credit losses or the recognition of further loan charge-offs, based on judgments different than those of management. Finally, if actual charge-offs in future periods exceed the allowance for credit losses, we will need additional provisions to increase the allowance for credit losses. Any increases in the allowance for credit losses will result in a decrease in net income and, possibly, capital and may have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, and results of operations. If our actual credit losses exceed our allowance for credit losses, our net income will decrease.

At December 31, 2023, approximately 75% of our total loan portfolio had real estate as a primary or secondary component of the collateral securing the loan. The real estate provides an alternate source of repayment in the event of a default by the borrower, but its value may deteriorate during the time the credit is extended. Declines in real estate values in our markets could significantly impair the value of the particular collateral securing our loans and our ability to sell the collateral upon foreclosure for an amount necessary to satisfy the borrower's obligations to us. Furthermore, in a declining real estate market, we often will need to further increase our allowance for credit losses to address the deterioration in the value of the real estate securing our loans. Any of the foregoing could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, results of operations, and cash flows.

Our loan portfolio includes commercial real estate loans, which are secured by owner-occupied and nonowner-occupied commercial properties. As of December 31, 2023, our owner-occupied commercial real estate loans totaled $449.6 million, or 20.3% of our total loan portfolio and our nonowner-occupied commercial real estate loans totaled $488.1 million, or 22.1% of our total loan portfolio. Commercial real estate loans typically depend on the successful operation and management of the businesses that occupy these properties or the financial stability of tenants occupying the properties. Nonowner-occupied commercial real estate loans typically are dependent, in large part, on the owner's ability to rent the property and the ability of the tenants to pay rent, whereas owner-occupied commercial real estate loans typically are dependent, in large part, on the success of the owner's business. Cash flows, which may include proceeds from sales of commercial real estate, may be affected significantly by general economic conditions. Weak economic conditions may impair the borrower's business operations and typically slow the execution of new leases. Such economic conditions may also lead to existing lease turnover. As a result of these factors, vacancy rates for retail, office and industrial space may increase. High vacancy rates could also result in rents falling. The combination of these factors could result in deterioration in the fundamentals underlying the commercial real estate market and the deterioration in value of some of our loans. These loans expose a lender to greater credit risk than loans secured by residential real estate because the collateral securing these loans typically cannot be liquidated as easily as residential real estate. If we foreclose on these loans, our holding period for the collateral typically is longer than for a 1-4 family residential property because there are fewer potential purchasers of the collateral. Additionally, nonowner-occupied commercial real estate loans generally involve relatively large balances to single borrowers or related groups of borrowers. Accordingly, charge-offs on nonowner-occupied commercial real estate loans may be larger on a per loan basis than those incurred with our residential or consumer loan portfolios. Unexpected deterioration in the credit quality of our commercial real estate loan portfolio would require us to increase our provision for loan losses, which would reduce our profitability and could materially adversely affect our business, financial condition, results of operations, and cash flows.

Commercial and industrial loans primarily consist of working capital lines of credit and equipment loans, typically secured by accounts receivable or inventory, or the relevant equipment. Repayment of these loans generally comes from the generation of cash flow as the result of the borrower's business operations. Commercial lending generally involves different risks from those associated with commercial real estate lending or construction lending. Although commercial loans may be collateralized by business assets (including real estate, if available as collateral), the repayment of these types of loans depends primarily on the creditworthiness and projected cash flow of the borrower (and any guarantors). Thus, the general business conditions of the local economy and the borrower's ability to sell its products and services, thereby generating sufficient operating revenue to repay us under the agreed upon terms and conditions, are the chief considerations when assessing the risk of a commercial and industrial loan. The liquidation of collateral, if any, is considered a secondary source of repayment because equipment and other business assets may, among other things, be obsolete or of limited resale value. Additionally, as of December 31, 2023 52% of our commercial and industrial loans were variable rate loans; rising interest rates increase interest payments due on such loans and may increase the risk of default by the borrower. We have been increasing the proportion of commercial and industrial loans in our loan portfolio. Our commercial and industrial loans represented 16.6%, 20.7% and 24.6% of total loans as of December 31, 2021, 2022 and 2023, respectively. The increase from year-end 2022 to year-end 2023 was caused primarily by our purchase of commercial and industrial revolving lines of credit which, at the time of the loan purchase agreement, had an unpaid principal balance of approximately $163 million and total commitments of approximately $238 million, as described in more detail elsewhere in this report. The acquired loans are to consumer finance lending companies. The repayment of consumer finance loans depends primarily on the creditworthiness and projected cash flow of the borrower (and any guarantors). Thus, the primary risks associated with these types of loans are the general business conditions of the local economy, and the ability to generate sufficient operating revenue to repay us under the agreed upon terms and conditions. Loans to consumer finance lending companies accounted for approximately 8% of our total loans at December 31, 2023. The increase from year-end 2021 to year-end 2022 was driven primarily by an increase in public finance loans and loan production by our Commercial and Industrial Division. Commercial and industrial loans include public finance loans made to governmental entities, which can be taxable or tax-exempt, for purposes including debt refinancing, economic development, quality of life projects, short-term cash-flow needs, and infrastructure enhancements, among other things. Public finance loans generally are repaid using pledged revenue sources including income tax, property tax, sales tax, and utility revenue, among other sources. Accordingly, repayment depends upon the financial stability and tax or revenue generating capacity of the particular revenue source. Public finance loans comprise less than 5% of our loan portfolio as of December 31, 2023.

The majority of our assets and liabilities are monetary in nature and, as a result, we are subject to significant risk from changes in interest rates. Changes in interest rates may affect our net interest income as well as the valuation of our assets and liabilities. We cannot predict with certainty changes in interest rates, which are affected by many factors beyond our control, including inflation, recession, unemployment, money supply, competition for loans and deposits, domestic and international events, changes in the U.S. and other financial markets, and the policies of the Federal Reserve. Inflation increased rapidly during 2021 through June 2022. Since June 2022, the rate of inflation generally has declined; however, it has remained at high levels compared to the Federal Reserve's target rate of inflation of two percent. In response, the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds target rate multiple times from March 2022 through July 2023, by 525 basis points on a cumulative basis. Our earnings depend significantly on our net interest income, which is the difference between interest income on interest-earning assets, such as loans and securities, and interest expense on interest-bearing liabilities, such as deposits and borrowings. We expect to periodically experience "gaps" in the interest rate sensitivities of our assets and liabilities, meaning that either our interest-bearing liabilities will be more sensitive to changes in market interest rates than our interest-earning assets, or vice versa. In either event, if market interest rates move contrary to our position, this "gap" may work against us, and our earnings may be adversely affected. When interest-bearing liabilities mature or reprice more quickly, or to a greater degree than interest-earning assets in a period, an increase in interest rates could reduce net interest income. Similarly, when interest-earning assets mature or reprice more quickly, or to a greater degree than interest-bearing liabilities, falling interest rates could reduce net interest income. Additionally, an increase in the general level of interest rates may also, among other things, adversely affect our current borrowers' ability to repay variable rate loans, the demand for and our ability to originate loans, negatively affect the value of our investment securities portfolio, and decrease loan prepayment rates, or could increase the cost of the Company's deposits and borrowings. Rising and high interest rates in 2022 and 2023 caused interest expense on both deposits and borrowings to increase significantly in 2023, putting pressure on our net interest margin. Our cost of interest-bearing deposits rose to 2.49% in 2023 from 0.42% in 2022, an increase of 207 basis points. Our costs of short-term borrowings rose to 4.93% in 2023 from 3.05% in 2022, an increase of 188 basis points. We may experience additional pressure on our net interest margin during 2024 if our cost of funds increases faster than the yield on our interest-earning assets. Additionally, due in large part to higher interest rates and market volatility during 2022 and 2023, gross unrealized losses in our investment portfolio totaled $57.7 million at December 31, 2023 and $62.5 million at December 31, 2022. These losses may continue or worsen during 2024, and we may experience realized losses in our portfolio. A continued high general level of interest rates or any additional increases in such rates could result in increased loan defaults, foreclosures and charge-offs, and also necessitate further increases to the allowance for credit losses. At the same time, the marketability and value of the property securing a loan may be adversely affected by any reduced demand resulting from sustained higher or increased interest rates. Further, when we place a loan on nonaccrual status, we reverse any accrued but unpaid interest receivable, which decreases interest income, but we continue to have a cost to fund the loan, which is reflected as interest expense, without any interest income to offset the associated funding expense. Thus, an increase in the amount of nonperforming assets would have an adverse impact on net interest income. Conversely, a decrease in the general level of interest rates may lead to, among other things, prepayments on our loan and mortgage-backed securities portfolios as borrowers refinance their loans at lower rates, lower rates on new loans, lower rates on existing variable rate loans, and lower yields on investment securities, which could result in decreased yields on earning assets. Although our asset-liability management strategy is designed to control and mitigate exposure to the risks related to changes in the general level of market interest rates, we may not be able to accurately predict the likelihood, nature and magnitude of those changes or how and to what extent they may affect our business. We also may not be able to adequately prepare for or compensate for the consequences of such changes. Significant increases in interest rates, as has occurred during the last two fiscal years, makes our business and our balance sheet more challenging to manage. Any failure to predict and prepare for changes in interest rates or adjust for the consequences of these changes may adversely affect our earnings and capital levels. For additional information, see Item 7. Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations – Risk Management – Interest Rate Risk.

Liquidity is essential to our business. Liquidity risk is the potential that we will be unable to meet our obligations as they come due because of an inability to liquidate assets or obtain adequate funding. The primary source of the Bank's funds are customer deposits, loan repayments and investment securities maturities or sales, while borrowings are a secondary source of liquidity. We also use brokered deposits from time to time and our use of brokered deposits increased during 2023. Brokered deposits tend to be more sensitive to changes in interest rates than other types of deposits and therefore can be a more expensive and uncertain source of funds. The Bank's liquidity could be adversely impacted if rates offered by the Bank were less than those offered by other institutions seeking brokered deposits, or if such depositors were to perceive a decline in the Bank's safety or soundness. Additionally, we must maintain our well-capitalized status in order to accept brokered deposits without prior regulatory approval. Our access to deposits and other funding sources in adequate amounts and on acceptable terms is affected by a number of factors, including rates paid by competitors, returns available to customers on alternative investments, customer confidence in the safety of uninsured deposits and general economic conditions. Any decline in available funding could adversely impact our ability to originate loans, invest in securities, meet our expenses, pay dividends to our shareholders, or to fulfill obligations such as repaying our borrowings or meeting deposit withdrawal demands, any of which could have a material adverse impact on our business, financial condition, results of operations and long-term growth prospects. The highly-publicized failures of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and First Republic Bank during the first half of 2023 caused significant disruptions in the banking industry. These industry developments negatively impacted overall customer confidence in the safety of their deposits, particularly uninsured deposits, at some regional banks. As a result, some customers moved deposits to, or maintained deposits with, larger financial institutions or moved funds to investment alternatives outside the banking industry. The rapid failures of these large banks highlighted risks associated with advances in technology that increase the speed at which information, concerns and rumors can spread through traditional and new media and increase the speed at which deposits can be moved from bank to bank or outside the banking system, heightening liquidity concerns of traditional banks. Regulators and the largest U.S. banks took steps designed to increase liquidity at regional banks and strengthen depositor confidence in the broader banking industry, including the Bank Term Funding Program discussed elsewhere in this report and measures to protect uninsured deposits from loss; however, there are no guarantees that such steps would be implemented in the future if a similar disruption in the industry were to occur. For more information on the Company's deposits and liquidity position, see Part I. Item 2. Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations under the headings "Certain Events That Affect Period-over-Period Comparability," "Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition – Deposits" and "Liquidity and Capital Resources." Concerns about liquidity in the banking industry and the safety of uninsured deposits that may result from similar events in the future may materially adversely impact our liquidity, cost of funds, loan funding capacity, net interest margin, capital and results of operations.

Deposits have historically been a low cost and stable source of funding. We compete with banks and other financial institutions for deposits. Funding costs could increase if the Company loses deposits and replaces them with more expensive sources of funding, if customers shift their deposits into higher cost products, or if the Company needs to raise its interest rates to avoid losing deposits. Higher funding costs reduce the Company's net interest margin, net interest income and net income. As interest rates began to rise significantly during 2022, competition for deposits increased, and the Bank raised rates it offered on deposits to remain competitive in its markets. During 2023, as interest rates continued to rise and remain high, customers continued to shift into interest-bearing deposit products and we also utilized brokered time deposits, which increased our total costs of deposits by 207 basis points from 2022 to 2023. Disruptions in the banking industry during the first half of 2023 discussed elsewhere in this report highlighted the speed at which deposits can be moved from bank to bank or outside the banking system, heightening liquidity concerns of traditional banks. Any further increases in interest rates, sustained high interest rates or any new events producing concerns among customers about the safety of uninsured deposits could further increase our cost of deposits or cause us to lose deposits, which would increase our costs of funds and reduce net income.