TCPL Packaging Limited (TCPLPACK) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ₹22.07B
• Dividend Yield: 1%
• Average Volume (3M): 195.00
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 27.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.78
• Revenue Growth: 9.49%
• EPS Growth: 9.69%
• Country: IN
• Employees: 2,228
• Sector: Consumer Goods
• Sector Strength: N/A
• Industry: Packaging & Containers
• EPS (TTM): 40.00
• Shares Outstanding: 9,100,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 177
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 195
• PEG Ratio: 0.63
• Price to Book (P/B): 6.12
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.23
• P/FCF Ratio: -49.12
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 145.6
• Revenue Forecast (FY): ₹19.26B

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: ₹2,656.00 ▼(-25.32% Downside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 02/11/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 02/11/26

The score is primarily supported by improving profitability and a strengthening balance sheet, but is held back by negative free cash flow and only mixed technical confirmation (negative MACD and price below longer-term moving averages). Valuation is moderate with a modest dividend yield, providing limited additional support.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Sustained 14.85% revenue growth reflects durable demand for B2B paperboard packaging across FMCG and pharma end markets. Over 2-6 months this supports scale benefits, better capacity utilization and revenue visibility from order-driven customer relationships.

Margin Expansion

Material improvement in gross and net margins signals stronger cost management and pricing power in a commodity-linked sector. Higher margins enhance earnings resilience versus raw material swings and provide a more sustainable profit base for reinvestment over the medium term.

Stronger Balance Sheet & ROE

An improved equity ratio alongside a 22.22% ROE shows efficient capital deployment and a thicker equity cushion. Moderate leverage (D/E ~1.01) balances growth funding with financial flexibility, supporting capital investments without immediate solvency stress.

Negative Factors

Weak Cash Conversion

Operating cash generation lagging net income and negative free cash flow—driven by elevated capex—creates a structural liquidity pressure. Over months this can constrain discretionary spending, require external financing, and raise coverage risk if cash conversion doesn't recover.

Limited Operating Leverage

Despite revenue and gross margin gains, a flat EBITDA margin suggests operating expenses or investment push offset scale benefits. This limits incremental earnings conversion from top-line growth and may cap medium-term profitability improvements and cash generation.

EPS Contraction

Negative EPS growth despite margin improvement indicates non-operational pressures (e.g., financing, one-offs, or capital structure effects) affecting per-share returns. Persistent EPS weakness could undermine shareholder returns and signals areas needing scrutiny.

TCPL Packaging Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

TCPL Packaging Limited manufactures and sells packaging products in India. It offers folding cartons, printed blanks and outers, litho-lamination products, plastic cartons, and blister and shelf-ready packaging products, as well as printed cork-tipping papers, laminates, shrink sleeves and pouches, and wrap-around labels. The company also exports its products. It serves the tobacco, FMCG, food and beverage, liquor, pharmaceuticals, and other consumer goods industries. The company was formerly known as Twenty-First Century Printers Ltd. TCPL Packaging Limited was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Mumbai, India.

How the Company Makes Money

TCPL Packaging Limited primarily makes money by manufacturing and selling paperboard/paper-based packaging products to brand owners and converters, earning revenue from the supply of finished packaging (notably printed folding cartons) produced to customer specifications. Its revenue model is largely business-to-business and order-driven, where customers pay for the conversion of paperboard into value-added packaging through processes such as printing, finishing, and carton conversion; pricing typically reflects input material costs (paperboard), printing/finishing complexity, volumes, and required quality/compliance standards. Key revenue streams therefore come from: (1) sale of printed folding cartons and other paper packaging formats; and (2) value-added services embedded in these products (e.g., structural design, pre-press/artwork support, specialized printing/finishes, and compliant packaging for regulated end markets). Significant factors influencing earnings commonly include demand from FMCG and pharmaceutical end markets, the company’s ability to run high-capacity manufacturing efficiently, and pass-through/management of raw material (paperboard) cost movements. Specific details on material partnerships, long-term customer contracts, or segment-wise revenue breakdown are null.

TCPL Packaging Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong income statement trends (revenue up 14.85% YoY, gross margin up to 29.41%, net margin up to 8.08%) and a strengthening balance sheet (equity ratio improved; ROE 22.22%) are partially offset by weaker cash-flow quality (operating cash flow to net income down to 0.55 and negative free cash flow due to high capex), which raises liquidity/coverage risk.

Income Statement

TCPL Packaging Limited demonstrates strong revenue growth with a 14.85% increase from 2024 to 2025. The gross profit margin improved to 29.41% in 2025 from 17.06% in 2024, indicating enhanced cost management. Net profit margin also increased to 8.08% in 2025, reflecting improved profitability. However, the EBITDA margin remained relatively stable at 17.36%. Overall, the company shows a positive growth trajectory with increasing profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 1.01, suggesting a balanced capital structure. The equity ratio improved to 39.93% in 2025, indicating a stronger equity position relative to assets. Return on equity increased to 22.22%, showcasing efficient use of equity to generate profits. While leverage is moderate, the improvement in equity ratio suggests a strengthening financial position.

Cash Flow

The operating cash flow to net income ratio decreased to 0.55 in 2025, indicating a drop in cash generation relative to net income. Free cash flow turned negative in 2025, primarily due to high capital expenditures. However, free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating potential challenges in covering investments with generated cash. The cash flow situation requires close monitoring due to its potential impact on liquidity.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	17.73B	17.70B	15.23B	14.59B	10.73B	8.92B
Gross Profit	6.19B	5.21B	2.45B	5.54B	2.93B	2.49B
EBITDA	3.12B	3.07B	2.59B	2.62B	1.58B	1.36B
Net Income	1.27B	1.43B	1.01B	1.11B	473.47M	334.74M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	17.17B	16.12B	13.28B	12.18B	10.72B	8.38B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	153.53M	175.05M	218.33M	79.14M	97.58M	62.19M
Total Debt	6.91B	6.51B	5.04B	5.01B	4.63B	3.21B
Total Liabilities	10.48B	9.68B	8.02B	7.75B	7.29B	5.38B
Stockholders Equity	6.69B	6.44B	5.26B	4.42B	3.40B	3.00B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	303.17M	-802.25M	880.57M	93.99M	-923.85M	598.28M
Operating Cash Flow	919.75M	786.37M	2.34B	1.09B	969.72M	1.15B
Investing Cash Flow	-626.69M	-1.51B	-1.57B	-899.61M	-1.95B	-414.13M
Financing Cash Flow	-338.41M	730.62M	-760.88M	-217.33M	1.01B	-667.19M

TCPL Packaging Limited Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 3556.45
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IN:TCPLPACK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3556.45 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2699.76, above the 50-day MA of 2752.79, and above the 200-day MA of 3270.22, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -93.61 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 33.63 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.25 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for IN:TCPLPACK.

TCPL Packaging Limited Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TCPLPACK	69 Neutral	₹22.07B	27.34	―	1.00%	9.49%	9.69%
HUHTAMAKI	64 Neutral	₹12.19B	13.53	―	0.95%	-1.59%	-75.34%
BOROLTD	61 Neutral	₹27.29B	35.15	―	―	15.59%	20.12%
ORIENTELEC	60 Neutral	₹36.28B	36.16	―	0.82%	6.63%	42.16%
Sector *	57 Neutral	$3.13B	9.23	-34.32%	3.14%	-25.56%	-353.61%
JISLDVREQS	53 Neutral	₹23.32B	-12.27	―	―	5.79%	9.84%
LUXIND	52 Neutral	₹25.94B	64.82	―	0.18%	16.32%	-20.97%

TCPL Packaging Limited Corporate Events

TCPL Packaging Releases Q3 and 9M FY26 Earnings Call Transcript

TCPL Packaging Limited announced that it has released the official transcript of its earnings conference call for the third quarter and nine months of fiscal year 2026. The call, held with investors and analysts on February 16, 2026 and led by Executive Director Akshay Kanoria and GM (Finance) Vivek Dave, underscores the company’s ongoing efforts to maintain transparent communication with the market about its business performance.

The publication of the transcript provides stakeholders detailed insight into management’s discussion of recent results and strategic direction. This step supports improved disclosure practices and allows investors, analysts and other market participants to review the company’s commentary beyond the live event, reinforcing confidence and accessibility around its financial reporting.