Top Gum (TPGM) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ₪2.43B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 66.86K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.31
• Revenue Growth: 50.27%
• EPS Growth: -192.16%
• Country: IL
• Employees: 221
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Food Confectioners
• EPS (TTM): 5.50
• Shares Outstanding: 129,185,560
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 82,717
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 66,859
• PEG Ratio: 0.11
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.12
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.30
• P/FCF Ratio: -29.17
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 54 Neutral
• Price Target: 1,876.00 ▲(44.86% Upside)

The score is primarily held back by weak fundamentals—loss-making operations, negative ROE, and negative free cash flow—despite strong revenue growth. Technicals are supportive with strong trend and momentum, but overbought signals raise near-term risk. Valuation is a meaningful concern due to losses (negative P/E) and no dividend yield data.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth Trajectory

Consistent TTM revenue growth of ~21% signals durable demand for Top Gum’s products and successful commercial execution. Over the next several months this revenue base supports economies of scale, funds product development and market expansion, and underpins recovery of margins if cost control follows.

Multi-channel Distribution & Partnerships

A multi-channel sales model plus distributor partnerships and co-branded product lines creates durable market access and reduces customer concentration risk. These structural capabilities support steady shelf presence, incremental innovation routes, and resilient revenue streams across retail and wholesale channels.

Moderate Financial Leverage

A debt-to-equity ratio around 0.63 indicates moderate leverage that can finance growth without excessive solvency risk. If managed prudently it allows investment in capacity or marketing while maintaining financial flexibility, making capital structure supportive of medium-term strategic initiatives.

Negative Factors

Weak Profitability

Negative EBIT and net margins show operations are not yet profitable, limiting retained earnings and long-term reinvestment capacity. Persistent margin weakness undermines the company’s ability to fund growth internally and increases reliance on external capital, pressuring sustainability until margins improve.

Negative Free Cash Flow

Negative free cash flow is a durable constraint on Top Gum’s financial flexibility, reducing ability to invest in CAPEX, marketing, or R&D without raising external funds. Over months this raises refinancing and liquidity risk, and can slow strategic initiatives or require dilutive/expensive financing.

Poor Return on Equity

A negative ROE indicates the company’s capital base is not generating positive returns, signaling inefficiencies in asset utilization or cost structure. This long-term issue weakens investor confidence, limits ability to attract equity capital on favorable terms, and constrains shareholder value creation.

Top Gum Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Top Gum (TPGM) is a leading provider in the gum and confectionery industry, specializing in the production and distribution of high-quality chewing gum products. The company operates in various sectors, including consumer goods and food manufacturing, and focuses on innovative flavors and packaging solutions to enhance consumer experiences. Top Gum's core products include sugar-free gum, functional gum with added health benefits, and a variety of traditional chewing gum options, catering to a diverse range of consumer preferences.

How the Company Makes Money

Top Gum generates revenue primarily through the sale of its chewing gum products to retailers, wholesalers, and distributors globally. The company employs a multi-channel distribution model, selling directly to large retail chains and leveraging partnerships with distributors to reach smaller retailers. Additionally, Top Gum has developed strategic partnerships with various brands and health organizations to create co-branded products and functional gum lines, enhancing its market reach. The company also invests in marketing and brand promotion, which drives consumer demand and increases sales. Seasonal promotions and limited-edition flavors further contribute to revenue spikes throughout the year.

Top Gum Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong revenue growth (+21.04% TTM) is offset by weak profitability (negative EBIT and net profit margins), negative ROE, and negative free cash flow with limited cash generation from operations.

Income Statement

Top Gum's revenue has shown a strong growth trajectory, with a 21.04% increase in the TTM period. However, profitability remains a concern as indicated by negative EBIT and net profit margins. The company needs to improve operational efficiency to enhance profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects moderate leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.63. While the equity ratio is stable, the negative return on equity indicates challenges in generating returns for shareholders. Strengthening equity and managing debt levels could improve financial stability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a negative free cash flow, although there is a positive growth trend. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low, suggesting limited cash generation from operations. Improving cash flow management is essential for financial health.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	83.95M	59.27M	45.60M	43.91M	33.07M	25.60M
Gross Profit	49.06M	20.51M	15.10M	15.25M	9.89M	7.84M
EBITDA	17.28M	-2.61M	6.27M	6.23M	4.49M	3.47M
Net Income	1.54M	-6.49M	3.21M	3.63M	1.58M	774.00K
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	626.17M	108.20M	104.84M	63.68M	59.57M	28.74M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	74.44M	10.14M	12.11M	4.33M	17.93M	1.30M
Total Debt	41.37M	31.20M	25.06M	7.99M	2.40M	8.37M
Total Liabilities	260.22M	45.62M	37.26M	17.41M	12.13M	14.19M
Stockholders Equity	110.78M	62.58M	67.59M	46.27M	47.44M	14.55M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-10.48M	-6.70M	-25.43M	-12.18M	-6.48M	-400.24K
Operating Cash Flow	6.69M	6.69M	1.44M	1.08M	1.09M	1.01M
Investing Cash Flow	-43.38M	-12.99M	-28.22M	-13.40M	-7.51M	-1.13M
Financing Cash Flow	85.08M	4.50M	33.20M	263.00K	22.12M	699.72K

Top Gum Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 1295.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IL:TPGM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1295 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1599.50, below the 50-day MA of 1395.52, and above the 200-day MA of 1029.20, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 159.60 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 68.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.03 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for IL:TPGM.

Top Gum Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
KAFR	69 Neutral	₪659.08M	9.73	―	3.17%	-0.71%	2.35%
HLMS	67 Neutral	₪721.97M	21.15	―	5.30%	7.70%	-34.56%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
TPGM	54 Neutral	₪2.43B	-138.49	―	―	50.27%	-192.16%