Hertz Global (HTZ) AI Stock Analysis

Compare

1,111 Followers

Top Page

Hertz Global

(NASDAQ:HTZ)

Select Model

Neutral 47 (OpenAI - 5.2)

Rating:47Neutral

Price Target:

$4.00

▼(-4.31% Downside)

Action:ReiteratedDate:03/02/26

HTZ scores in the mid-range primarily due to weak financial quality (losses, falling TTM revenue, and a highly leveraged balance sheet with negative equity) and bearish technicals (below key moving averages with negative MACD). The score is partially supported by positive but volatile free cash flow and a more constructive earnings-call outlook that points to improving operations and maintained longer-term targets, albeit with near-term margin losses and a stated liquidity trough risk.

Positive Factors

Fleet renewal & utilization

A materially younger fleet and record utilization reduce maintenance costs, improve reliability and customer satisfaction, and raise revenue per unit. Over months, this supports better unit economics, stronger resale values and more efficient capital deployment across rental and remarketing channels.

Improving underlying profitability

Sustained EBITDA improvement and a return to positive EPS reflect operational leverage and pricing/mix gains. If maintained, higher EBITDA provides durable cash flow to service debt, fund fleet replacement, and support reinvestment, enabling a multi-quarter path toward structural profitability.

Asset-backed securitization to fund fleet

Using asset-backed notes ties financing to rental fleet cash flows, preserving unsecured capacity and matching funding to asset life. This durable funding source can lower refinancing risk, finance vehicle acquisitions, and help manage maturities if executed with disciplined covenant and amortization profiles.

Negative Factors

High leverage and negative equity

Severely negative equity and very high leverage constrain financial flexibility, increase refinancing risk and borrowing costs, and limit ability to absorb shocks. Long-term recovery depends on sustained cash generation to deleverage, which is challenging under stressed capital structure.

Persistent net losses and revenue decline

Chronic net losses and falling top-line undermine retained earnings and the company's ability to self-fund growth or debt reduction. Without durable revenue recovery or structural margin improvement, profitability remains fragile and reliant on continued operational improvements or external capital.

Negative free cash flow after capex

Negative free cash flow despite positive operations implies fleet investment and capex consume cash, limiting capacity to pay down debt or return capital. Over months, sustained negative FCF heightens refinancing and liquidity risk unless capex intensity eases or cash conversion improves.

Hertz Global (HTZ) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$1.31B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)5.87M

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)0.43

Revenue Growth-7.36%

EPS Growth62.27%

CountryUS

Employees26,000

SectorIndustrials

Sector Strength72

IndustryRental & Leasing Services

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-0.63

Shares Outstanding312,360,700

10 Day Avg. Volume5,004,613

30 Day Avg. Volume5,869,791

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.03

Price to Book (P/B)-3.47

Price to Sales (P/S)0.19

P/FCF Ratio-0.18

Enterprise Value/Market Cap14.82

Enterprise Value/Revenue2.28

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit18.70

Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.30

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$4.25

Price Target Upside1.67% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Sell

Number of Analyst Covering5

EPS Forecast (FY)-0.71

Revenue Forecast (FY)$8.86B

Hertz Global Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionHertz Global Holdings, Inc. operates as a vehicle rental company. It operates through two segments, Americas Rental Car and International Rental Car. The company provides vehicle rental services under the Hertz, Dollar, and Thrifty brands from company-owned, licensee, and franchisee locations in the United States, Africa, Asia, Australia, Canada, the Caribbean, Europe, Latin America, the Middle East, and New Zealand. It also sells vehicles; and operates the Firefly vehicle rental brand and Hertz 24/7 car sharing business in international markets. Hertz Global Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1918 and is headquartered in Estero, Florida.

How the Company Makes MoneyHertz makes money primarily by renting vehicles to customers and charging for associated products and services. Key revenue streams include: (1) Time-and-mileage rental charges: the core rental rate collected for vehicle use, typically priced by day/week/month and sometimes influenced by vehicle class, location, and demand; (2) Ancillary fees and add-ons: revenue from optional products and services such as loss damage waivers and other protection products, additional driver fees, underage renter fees, refueling/charging-related charges, toll programs/administrative fees, child seats and other equipment rentals, and upgrades; (3) Corporate and insurance replacement rentals: contracted and negotiated-rate business with companies and insurers/body shops, which can provide steadier demand than purely leisure travel; (4) Vehicle sales: proceeds from selling vehicles from its fleet (often referred to as ‘fleet remarketing’), which can be a meaningful contributor to overall results depending on used-vehicle market conditions and fleet rotation timing; and (5) Other mobility-related and service revenue: to the extent offered in a given period, this can include longer-term rentals/subscription-style offerings and fees related to partnerships or programs tied to fleet utilization. Major factors that influence earnings include fleet costs (vehicle acquisition, depreciation and/or lease costs), utilization rates, pricing (rate per day), residual values realized on vehicle sales, financing costs for fleet funding, and demand patterns tied to travel and local market conditions. Specific material partnerships beyond brand, travel-channel distribution, and corporate/insurance account relationships: null.

Hertz Global Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Income Before Taxes by Segment

Income Before Taxes by Segment
Shows profitability across different business segments, highlighting which areas drive earnings and where there might be financial challenges.

Chart InsightsHertz Global's U.S. Rental Cars segment has shown a volatile recovery, with a significant turnaround in Q2 2025, moving from deep losses to a positive income. This aligns with the company's strategic focus on fleet optimization and cost management, as highlighted in their earnings call. Despite challenges like pricing pressures and recall impacts, Hertz's improved fleet utilization and strong retail vehicle sales indicate a positive trajectory. The International Rental Cars segment also returned to profitability, reflecting operational improvements. The earnings call underscores a cautiously optimistic outlook, aiming for a $1 billion adjusted corporate EBITDA by 2027.

Data provided by:

The Fly

Hertz Global Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026

(Q4-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Apr 23, 2026

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The call presented substantial operational and strategic progress — including a >$1 billion full-year adjusted EBITDA improvement, fleet rotation, younger average fleet age, improved unit economics (DOE -6%), and a nearly 50% increase in Net Promoter Score — while acknowledging several pronounced but described as transitory headwinds in Q4 (elevated recalls, a $60M noncash depreciation charge from Black Book residuals, a ~$20M loss on asset sales, government shutdown impacts and temporary liquidity pressure). Management pointed to early 2026 revenue and RPD strength, maintained disciplined growth targets, and reiterated multi-year ambitions (including $1B adjusted EBITDA in 2027) while keeping 2026 guidance unchanged (3%–6% adjusted EBITDA margin). Overall, positives on execution, customer experience, fleet economics and strategic initiatives significantly outweighed the discrete quarter-specific challenges.

Q4-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Full-Year Adjusted EBITDA Improvement

Hertz achieved a full-year adjusted EBITDA improvement of more than $1.0 billion year-over-year for 2025, reflecting material progress on profitability versus the prior year.

Sequential Revenue and RPU/RPD Recovery

Revenue showed strong sequential improvement through 2025, with Q4 2025 being the company's strongest revenue result in nearly two years; adjusted Q4 revenue was about $2.0 billion and, excluding a prior-year loyalty adjustment, revenue grew year-over-year with RPD nearly flat.

Q4 and Q1 Momentum

Q4 adjusted revenue improved sequentially by ~4 percentage points (from down ~4% to about flat); early 2026 trends show January and February with positive year-over-year revenue and RPD, and management expects Q1 2026 revenue to be up mid-single digits year-over-year with low-single-digit fleet growth.

Unit Economics and Cost Improvement

Adjusted DOE (direct operating expense) per transaction day improved 6% year-over-year to $36.39, moving closer to the North Star target (low 30s), and adjusted EBITDA improved ~$150 million year-over-year in Q4.

Fleet Health and Rotation

Fleet rotation completed and model year 2026 purchases secured at target prices and volumes; average fleet age reduced to under 10 months — the youngest in almost a decade — and global fleet was 3% smaller year-over-year while delivering stronger revenue performance.

Customer Experience Gains

Net Promoter Score (customer satisfaction) improved nearly 50% year-over-year in 2025, with near-term effects on organic demand and direct website growth.

Hertz Car Sales and Retail Strategy

Hertz car sales is being transformed into an omnichannel retail-focused business; currently ~1/3 of cars sold via retail channels with an aspirational target of ~80%, and the business already ranks among the top 5 used car dealers by sales volume.

Mobility and Rideshare Growth

Mobility business (including rideshare) is growing revenue in double digits and Hertz operates the largest rideshare rental fleet in the world, representing a material long-term growth opportunity.

Negative Updates

Q4 Adjusted EBITDA Loss and Shortfall vs. Target

Q4 2025 adjusted EBITDA was approximately negative $200 million (a $150 million YoY improvement) but about $100 million below management's target for the quarter.

Elevated Recall Volumes and Operational Impact

Recall volumes peaked in mid-November/December, taking over 20,000 cars out of service (~3x normal), creating outsized pressure of well over $100 million on the business, forcing higher fleet carry and reducing utilization particularly in rideshare.

Residual Value Adjustment and Depreciation Charge

A late-quarter Black Book residual value forecast that was down nearly 5% year-over-year resulted in an approximately $60 million noncash depreciation charge, contributing to higher DPU in Q4.

Loss on Asset Sales and Vehicle Market Pressure

Q4 included about $20 million of loss on sale of assets due to an oversupply of cars in the marketplace that weighed on wholesale/residual values during the seasonal low period.

Government Shutdown and Tech Vendor Disruptions

An extended government shutdown and multiple technology vendor outages (plus FAA cancellations) amplified Q4 headwinds; management estimates the government shutdown cost the company an additional $10–$20 million of adjusted EBITDA in the quarter.

DPU Volatility — Q4 Above Target

Full-year net DPU for 2025 was $300 per unit (at the North Star), but Q4 DPU ended at ~$330 per unit — higher than expected — driven by the residual value adjustment and weaker-than-expected wholesale prices.

Liquidity Pressure and Near-Term Trough

Total liquidity at quarter end was ~ $1.5 billion but after a make-whole payment and timing impacts fell to just under $1.2 billion; management expects the liquidity low point at end of Q2 likely below $1.0 billion and is pursuing financing and other measures to add ~ $200 million plus additional opportunities > $500 million.

Higher Repair/Insurance Severity

Adjusted DOE improvement masked higher collision severity, repair costs and ongoing elevated insurance costs; these factors increased vehicle carrying and maintenance expense in the quarter.

Company Guidance

Hertz expects Q1 2026 transaction days and fleet to increase low‑single‑digits year‑over‑year, total fleet utilization to be roughly flat, and revenue to be up mid‑single‑digits with fleet growth only in the low‑single‑digits; Q1 margin guidance is negative high‑single‑digit to low‑double‑digit (an implied ~600–800 bps YoY improvement) assuming DPU around $300/unit. For the full year management is maintaining a 3%–6% adjusted EBITDA margin outlook and reiterated a $1 billion adjusted EBITDA target for 2027, while aiming to keep DPU at or below ~$300/month (FY2025 net DPU was $300/month; Q4 2025 DPU was $330/unit, down 21% YoY). Recent operating results cited include Q4 revenue of $2.0 billion (RPD ~‑1% YoY, nearly flat ex‑loyalty), Q4 adjusted EBITDA roughly negative $200 million (a $150 million YoY improvement), >$1 billion adjusted EBITDA improvement in 2025 vs. 2024, DOE per transaction day of $36.39 (‑6% YoY), total fleet ~3% smaller, utilization up ~200 bps YoY in Q4, and recall peaks of >20,000 vehicles (~3x normal) that should moderate in Q1. Liquidity ended Q4 at about $1.5 billion (≈$1.2 billion after recent payments); management expects a liquidity trough below $1.0 billion at end‑Q2 before finishing 2026 well north of $1.0 billion, supported by a ~+$200 million financing, >$500 million of additional opportunities and ~ $400 million of first‑lien capacity.

Hertz Global Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Results are pressured by a swing back to losses and declining TTM revenue (~-14.1%) despite a still-strong TTM EBITDA margin (~28.0%). The balance sheet is the key constraint: very high debt (~$17.1B) alongside negative equity (~-$0.46B) materially limits flexibility. Cash flow is supportive (TTM FCF ~$1.42B) but has weakened (FCF growth ~-28.1%) and has been volatile historically.

Income Statement

Negative

Profitability has deteriorated materially versus prior years. TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue fell ~14.1% and net losses persisted (net margin ~-12.1%), following a very weak 2024 (net margin ~-31.6% and negative operating profitability). While 2022–2023 showed strong margins and positive earnings, the recent downshift in revenue and return to losses outweighs the still-positive TTM EBITDA margin (~28.0%), pointing to elevated costs/charges below EBITDA and weaker earnings quality.

Balance Sheet

Very Negative

Leverage is high and the capital structure has weakened. TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) total debt is ~$17.1B against negative equity (~-$0.46B), which is a meaningful balance-sheet risk signal and reduces financial flexibility. The company previously had positive equity (e.g., ~$3.1B in 2023), but the sharp erosion into negative territory, alongside sustained high debt levels, increases refinancing and downturn vulnerability even though total assets remain sizable (~$22.3B TTM).

Cash Flow

Neutral

Cash generation is a relative bright spot, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow of ~$1.63B and positive free cash flow of ~$1.42B. However, momentum is mixed: TTM free cash flow declined sharply (growth ~-28.1%) and historical free cash flow has been highly volatile, including very large outflows in 2021–2024 despite positive operating cash flow in those years. Overall, cash flow is currently supportive, but variability and recent weakening reduce confidence in durability.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	8.50B	9.05B	9.37B	8.69B	7.34B
Gross Profit	1.03B	283.00M	1.73B	3.03B	2.74B
EBITDA	2.51B	1.85B	3.64B	3.84B	1.95B
Net Income	-747.00M	-2.86B	616.00M	2.06B	366.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	22.31B	21.80B	24.61B	22.50B	19.78B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.17B	592.00M	764.00M	943.00M	2.26B
Total Debt	19.20B	18.41B	17.83B	15.66B	4.50B
Total Liabilities	22.77B	21.65B	21.51B	19.85B	16.81B
Stockholders Equity	-459.00M	153.00M	3.09B	2.65B	2.98B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-8.65B	-8.40B	-7.23B	-1.71B	-5.42B
Operating Cash Flow	1.63B	2.22B	2.47B	2.54B	1.81B
Investing Cash Flow	-2.00B	-2.93B	-4.02B	-4.23B	-3.54B
Financing Cash Flow	372.00M	658.00M	1.31B	487.00M	2.85B

Hertz Global Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price4.18

Price Trends

50DMA

4.91

Negative

100DMA

5.15

Negative

200DMA

5.72

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.25

Negative

RSI

41.79

Neutral

STOCH

49.83

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HTZ, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.18 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.28, below the 50-day MA of 4.91, and below the 200-day MA of 5.72, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.25 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 41.79 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 49.83 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HTZ.

Hertz Global Risk Analysis

Hertz Global disclosed 50 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Hertz Global reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Hertz Global Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (63)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MGRC	70 Outperform	$2.59B	12.96	13.21%	1.79%	4.77%	-35.44%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
WLFC	63 Neutral	$1.14B	8.05	16.94%	0.82%	27.90%	19.25%
HRI	58 Neutral	$3.52B	4,644.29	0.06%	1.79%	19.40%	-120.47%
WSC	51 Neutral	$3.15B	-64.81	-5.35%	1.44%	-3.64%	867.62%
HTZ	47 Neutral	$1.31B	-2.13	193.77%	―	-7.36%	62.27%
CAR	43 Neutral	$3.58B	-5.08	32.05%	―	-1.22%	-639.34%

* Industrials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

HTZ

Hertz Global

4.18

0.53

14.52%

CAR

Avis Budget

101.52

40.62

66.70%

WSC

WillScot Mobile Mini Holdings

17.42

-12.95

-42.65%

HRI

Herc Holdings

105.59

-24.42

-18.78%

MGRC

Mcgrath Rentcorp

105.23

-8.57

-7.53%

WLFC

Willis Lease Finance

167.51

-17.81

-9.61%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Mar 02, 2026