Nine Dragons Paper Holdings (HK:2689)
:2689
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Nine Dragons Paper Holdings
(2689)
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Rating:57Neutral
Price Target:
HK$7.50
▲(18.67% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/16/26
The score is held back primarily by weak cash generation and higher leverage despite the FY2025 profit recovery. Technicals are moderately supportive with neutral momentum, and valuation appears relatively low based on the P/E multiple.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
A ~43% revenue increase in FY2025 shows meaningful demand and/or pricing recovery for containerboard. Sustained top-line growth supports higher mill utilization, spreads fixed costs across volume, and strengthens the foundation for durable earnings improvement if market demand holds.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
Leverage near 1.54x meaningfully reduces financial flexibility and elevates refinancing and interest-rate risk. High debt limits strategic optionality and increases vulnerability if pricing weakens, making the capital structure a persistent constraint on durability.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue Growth
A ~43% revenue increase in FY2025 shows meaningful demand and/or pricing recovery for containerboard. Sustained top-line growth supports higher mill utilization, spreads fixed costs across volume, and strengthens the foundation for durable earnings improvement if market demand holds.
Read all positive factors
Nine Dragons Paper Holdings (2689) vs. iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF (EWH)
Market Cap
HK$30.45B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)12.68M
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.8
Beta (1Y)1.23
Revenue Growth7.38%
EPS Growth252.52%
CountryHK
Employees25,410
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryPaper, Lumber & Forest Products
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.72
Shares Outstanding4,692,220,700
10 Day Avg. Volume12,039,682
30 Day Avg. Volume12,678,575
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.06
Price to Book (P/B)0.34
Price to Sales (P/S)0.27
P/FCF Ratio-1.54
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
HK$11.01Price Target Upside74.29% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)0.75
Revenue Forecast (FY)HK$71.87B
Nine Dragons Paper Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited, together with its affiliated companies, operates primarily within the People's Republic of China, where it manufactures and markets a diverse array of paper and pulp goods. The company's core offerings span p...
How the Company Makes Money
Nine Dragons primarily makes money by manufacturing and selling packaging paper products at scale. Its core revenue stream is the sale of containerboard—such as linerboard and corrugating medium—to converters (e.g., corrugated cardboard and box ma...
Nine Dragons Paper Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
48
Neutral
Cash Flow
34
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 67.00B | 63.24B | 59.50B | 56.74B | 64.54B | 61.57B |
| Gross Profit | 9.40B | 7.25B | 5.71B | 1.53B | 6.99B | 11.69B |
| EBITDA | 9.34B | 7.24B | 6.18B | 2.17B | 6.68B | 11.31B |
| Net Income | 3.67B | 2.17B | 772.35M | -2.38B | 3.28B | 7.10B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 148.95B | 149.04B | 138.37B | 120.65B | 107.08B | 92.17B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 6.65B | 11.27B | 10.68B | 10.44B | 9.78B | 10.15B |
| Total Debt | 85.95B | 77.18B | 69.03B | 56.76B | 44.20B | 34.14B |
| Total Liabilities | 99.28B | 98.43B | 89.89B | 75.51B | 59.58B | 45.78B |
| Stockholders Equity | 49.13B | 50.10B | 48.01B | 44.65B | 47.05B | 45.93B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -10.06B | -10.94B | -13.61B | -10.77B | -9.59B | -3.54B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 3.65B | 5.07B | -794.20M | 6.92B | 3.03B | 2.52B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -13.82B | -16.04B | -12.66B | -17.42B | -12.32B | -5.64B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 4.61B | 11.61B | 13.67B | 11.14B | 8.92B | 7.63B |
Nine Dragons Paper Holdings Technical Analysis
Negative
6.32
Price Trends
6.53
Negative
7.28
Negative
6.62
Negative
Market Momentum
0.03
Positive
46.73
Neutral
26.77
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:2689, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6.32 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.72, below the 50-day MA of 6.53, and below the 200-day MA of 6.62, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.73 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.77 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HK:2689.
Nine Dragons Paper Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
61 Neutral | HK$553.28M | 9.32 | 6.67% | 8.07% | -7.06% | -54.02% | |
59 Neutral | HK$12.15B | 6.29 | 6.55% | 3.92% | 2.49% | 47.91% | |
57 Neutral | HK$30.45B | 7.82 | 7.39% | ― | 7.38% | 252.52% | |
47 Neutral | HK$862.77M | 4.68 | 3.27% | 3.45% | -3.12% | -41.12% | |
45 Neutral | HK$565.84M | -8.70 | -37.51% | ― | 9.60% | -399.43% | |
41 Neutral | HK$4.26B | -0.76 | ― | ― | -48.87% | 16.69% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
HK:2689
Nine Dragons Paper Holdings
6.49
3.26
100.93%
HK:2314
Lee & Man Paper Manufacturing
2.83
0.67
31.14%
HK:1812
Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Co., Ltd. Class H
0.62
-0.07
-10.14%
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Q P Group Holdings Limited
1.04
-0.37
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China Sunshine Paper Holdings Co. Ltd.
0.81
-0.90
-52.63%
HK:0731
C&D Newin Paper & Pulp Corporation Limited
0.40
0.21
111.64%
Nine Dragons Paper Holdings Corporate Events
Nine Dragons Paper Secures RMB2 Billion Loan Tied to Founding Family Control
Jun 14, 2026
Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited has secured a three-year term loan facility of RMB2 billion from a syndicate of banks, providing additional funding capacity to support its operations and financial needs. The facility, agreed in June 2026, un...
Nine Dragons Paper delays circular on renewed connected supply deals
Jun 12, 2026
Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited has postponed the despatch of a shareholder circular detailing renewed continuing connected transactions, including a Chemical Purchase Agreement and a Recovered Paper, Pulp Products and Woodchips Agreement. T...
Nine Dragons renews connected transactions, triggers independent review
May 18, 2026
Nine Dragons Paper Holdings has renewed its suite of continuing connected transaction agreements originally entered into in 2023, ahead of their expiry on 30 June 2026. The renewed arrangements cover purchases and supplies of packaging materials, ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.