BOC Aviation (2588) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: HK$56.28B
• Dividend Yield: 4.39%
• Average Volume (3M): 784.41K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.27
• Revenue Growth: 1.58%
• EPS Growth: -16.66%
• Country: HK
• Employees: 204
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Rental & Leasing Services
• EPS (TTM): 3.81
• Shares Outstanding: 694,010,300
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 752,393
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 784,412
• PEG Ratio: 0.28
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.85
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.45
• P/FCF Ratio: 57.08
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: HK$89.75
• Price Target Upside: 12.75% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): 8.12
• Revenue Forecast (FY): HK$19.22B

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: HK$89.00 ▲(11.81% Upside)

BOC Aviation's overall stock score reflects strong financial performance and attractive valuation. The company's robust cash flow management and profitability are significant strengths. However, technical indicators suggest caution in the short term, with the stock trading below key moving averages. The absence of recent earnings call data and corporate events limits additional insights.

Positive Factors

Free cash flow turnaround

A material shift from large negative to positive free cash flow improves the firm’s ability to fund aircraft purchases, leaseback cycles, and dividends without relying solely on external financing. This durable cash-generation improvement reduces refinancing risk and supports strategic fleet investment over multiple cycles.

Consistent revenue growth

Stable, recurring lease rental income and mid-single-digit revenue growth reflect durable demand for operating leases. Given long-term contracts and a diversified airline customer base, consistent top-line growth supports predictable cashflows and underpins long-term earnings resilience in a capital-intensive leasing model.

Improved return on equity

An ROE above mid-teens indicates effective use of equity to generate returns from leased assets. For a leveraged lessor, improving ROE suggests disciplined asset selection, yield capture on leases and operational efficiency that can sustain shareholder returns even as the business scales its fleet.

Negative Factors

High leverage

Substantial leverage is structural in aircraft leasing but raises long-term refinancing and interest-rate sensitivity. Elevated D/E constrains financial flexibility for fleet expansion, increases default risk under stress, and makes profitability more sensitive to funding cost swings over multiple market cycles.

Negative EPS trend

A declining EPS trend signals potential dilution, one-off charges, or variability in asset sales and accounting that can erode shareholder returns. Over the medium term, persistent EPS contraction would pressure dividend capacity and investor confidence, requiring operational or capital-structure remediation.

Residual value and airline credit exposure

BOC Aviation’s returns depend on airline solvency and used-aircraft values. Residual value volatility and concentrated airline default risk are enduring structural exposures in leasing, potentially causing losses on disposals or extended off-lease periods that compress long-term profitability.

BOC Aviation Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

BOC Aviation Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an aircraft operating leasing company worldwide. It offers a range of services to airlines and aircraft owners, including direct operating leases, sale and leaseback facilities, and third-party asset management. The company also provides aircraft remarketing and technical management services to airlines, banks, and other investors; arranges debt financing and other financial services for airlines and aircraft investors; and sells aircrafts. As of December 31, 2021, it had a fleet of 521 owned, managed, and on order aircraft. The company was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Singapore. BOC Aviation Limited is a subsidiary of Sky Splendor Limited.

How the Company Makes Money

BOC Aviation generates revenue primarily through its core business of leasing aircraft to airlines, which involves entering into long-term operating and finance lease agreements. The company earns lease income from these agreements, which provide a steady and predictable cash flow. Additionally, BOC Aviation engages in sale and leaseback transactions, where it purchases aircraft from airlines and leases them back, allowing airlines to unlock capital while maintaining access to the aircraft. The company also benefits from its strategic partnerships with aircraft manufacturers and its well-managed fleet, which enhances its competitiveness in the market. Furthermore, BOC Aviation's strong relationship with Bank of China provides it with favorable financing options, which can reduce its cost of capital and improve profitability.

BOC Aviation Financial Statement Overview

Summary

BOC Aviation has shown strong financial performance with consistent revenue growth and improved profitability margins. The company demonstrates resilience with better cash flow management, despite high leverage. Continued focus on maintaining operational efficiency and managing debt levels will be vital for sustaining its positive trajectory.

Income Statement

BOC Aviation has demonstrated consistent revenue growth with a notable increase from $2.07 billion in 2023 to $2.20 billion in 2024, reflecting a revenue growth rate of 6.11%. The gross profit margin is stable at approximately 26.95% in 2024, although the EBIT margin is not calculable due to the EBIT being zero. EBITDA margin remains strong at 62.42%, indicating robust operational efficiency. Net profit margin improved to 42.05% from 36.92% in the previous year, highlighting enhanced profitability.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a high debt-to-equity ratio of 2.61, which suggests substantial leverage. However, the return on equity (ROE) improved to 14.52% in 2024, indicating effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio of 25.39% suggests a moderate level of equity financing relative to total assets, which is a positive indicator of financial stability despite the high leverage.

Cash Flow

BOC Aviation shows a significant turnaround in free cash flow, increasing from a negative $1.36 billion in 2023 to a positive $94 million in 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 2.78, highlighting strong cash generation relative to net income. Additionally, the significant improvement in free cash flow to net income ratio from negative to 0.10 indicates better cash management and reduced capital expenditure burden.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.27B	2.20B	2.07B	1.92B	2.04B	1.96B
Gross Profit	664.39M	591.94M	548.89M	1.92B	696.06M	1.96B
EBITDA	1.39B	1.37B	1.35B	1.11B	1.16B	1.19B
Net Income	805.09M	923.59M	763.90M	20.06M	561.32M	509.84M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	25.57B	25.05B	24.17B	22.07B	23.88B	23.57B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	533.23M	671.33M	391.82M	391.91M	487.61M	408.25M
Total Debt	16.89B	16.59B	16.53B	15.14B	16.72B	16.89B
Total Liabilities	19.07B	18.69B	18.42B	16.87B	18.61B	18.79B
Stockholders Equity	6.50B	6.36B	5.75B	5.20B	5.27B	4.78B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-934.73M	94.42M	-1.36B	800.56M	-319.98M	-2.81B
Operating Cash Flow	2.67B	2.57B	2.28B	2.01B	1.80B	1.83B
Investing Cash Flow	-2.23B	-1.29B	-2.80B	193.04M	-1.06B	-4.25B
Financing Cash Flow	-437.71M	-1.00B	518.72M	-2.29B	-671.68M	2.58B

BOC Aviation Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 79.60
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:2588, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 79.6 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 81.06, above the 50-day MA of 76.02, and above the 200-day MA of 69.03, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.60 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.77 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 34.42 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for HK:2588.

BOC Aviation Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
3877	80 Outperform	HK$13.27B	7.02	13.91%	7.30%	0.17%	-12.66%
2588	73 Outperform	HK$56.28B	8.98	12.82%	4.39%	1.58%	-16.66%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
1848	58 Neutral	HK$3.63B	13.56	6.30%	6.29%	-7.56%	―

BOC Aviation Corporate Events

BOC Aviation Updates Information on Global Medium Term Note Programme

BOC Aviation Limited has updated the information relating to notes issued under its Global Medium Term Note Programme, and made the revised details available to investors via the Company Announcements section of the Singapore Exchange website. The move provides regulatory transparency for holders and potential investors in the company’s debt securities and underscores BOC Aviation’s ongoing use of capital markets funding, which is central to supporting its aircraft leasing operations and balance sheet management.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:2588) stock is a Buy with a HK$92.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BOC Aviation stock, see the HK:2588 Stock Forecast page.

BOC Aviation Prices US$500 Million 2033 Notes Under Global Medium Term Programme

BOC Aviation Limited has issued US$500 million fixed rate notes due 2033 under its global medium term note programme, with the notes listed on Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited as of 13 January 2026. The transaction underscores the company’s continued use of debt capital markets to diversify its funding sources and secure long-dated financing, supporting its aircraft leasing activities and reinforcing its position as a major player in aviation finance.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:2588) stock is a Buy with a HK$85.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BOC Aviation stock, see the HK:2588 Stock Forecast page.

BOC Aviation Lists US$500 Million 2033 Notes on Singapore Exchange

BOC Aviation Limited has issued US$500 million fixed-rate notes due 2033 under its global medium term note programme, further diversifying and extending the maturity of its funding profile in international debt markets. The notes will be listed and traded on the Singapore Exchange from 13 January 2026, underscoring the company’s continued access to global capital markets and supporting its ongoing aircraft leasing and financing activities for airline customers worldwide.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:2588) stock is a Buy with a HK$85.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BOC Aviation stock, see the HK:2588 Stock Forecast page.

BOC Aviation Boosts Order Book and Keeps Fleet Fully Utilised in 2025

BOC Aviation reported a strong operational performance for 2025, executing one of its largest annual volumes of transactions and reinforcing its standing as a leading global aircraft lessor. The company expanded its order book with 160 new aircraft purchase commitments, took delivery of 51 new aircraft, and sold 35 owned aircraft as part of its active portfolio management strategy, while maintaining 100% utilisation across its 451-strong owned fleet. As at 31 December 2025, BOC Aviation’s total portfolio comprised 815 aircraft and engines owned, managed and on order, with an average aircraft age of 5.0 years and an average remaining lease term of 7.8 years, underpinned by more than US$4 billion of funding raised during the year and 74 lease commitments. This combination of high utilisation, a young fleet profile, significant forward order book, and diversified customer base supports the company’s growth objectives and strengthens its competitive position in the global aircraft leasing market.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:2588) stock is a Buy with a HK$85.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BOC Aviation stock, see the HK:2588 Stock Forecast page.

BOC Aviation Appoints New Non-Executive Director

BOC Aviation Limited has announced the appointment of Mr. Chen Xiang as a Non-executive Director, as well as a member of the Remuneration and Nomination Committees, effective December 10, 2025. Mr. Chen, who has a significant background with the Bank of China, brings extensive experience in human resources and management, which is expected to strengthen BOC Aviation’s governance and strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:2588) stock is a Buy with a HK$85.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BOC Aviation stock, see the HK:2588 Stock Forecast page.

BOC Aviation Announces Board Restructuring

BOC Aviation Limited has announced changes to its Board of Directors and their respective roles, effective from December 10, 2025. This restructuring includes the appointment of Mr. Zhuo Chengwen as Chairman and Mr. Steven Matthew Townend as Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director. The announcement reflects the company’s ongoing efforts to strengthen its leadership team, potentially impacting its strategic direction and operational efficiency.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:2588) stock is a Buy with a HK$85.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BOC Aviation stock, see the HK:2588 Stock Forecast page.

BOC Aviation to Lease Back Two Airbus A350-1000 to Philippine Airlines

BOC Aviation Limited has announced a transaction with Philippine Airlines Inc. to purchase and lease back two Airbus A350-1000 aircraft. This transaction, which is part of the company’s Qualified Aircraft Leasing Activity, involves long-term operating leases for the aircraft, with deliveries scheduled for 2025 and 2026. The deal is in line with BOC Aviation’s ordinary business operations and is deemed fair and reasonable, benefiting the company and its shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:2588) stock is a Buy with a HK$85.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BOC Aviation stock, see the HK:2588 Stock Forecast page.

BOC Aviation Expands Fleet with Airbus A350-900 Leaseback Deal

BOC Aviation Limited has announced a discloseable transaction involving the purchase and leaseback of three Airbus A350-900 aircraft with EgyptAir Holding Company and EgyptAir Airlines Company. This transaction, which includes long-term finance leases, is part of BOC Aviation’s Qualified Aircraft Leasing Activity and is expected to enhance its leasing portfolio and strengthen its position in the global aircraft leasing market.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:2588) stock is a Buy with a HK$77.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BOC Aviation stock, see the HK:2588 Stock Forecast page.