Q P Group Holdings Limited (1412) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: HK$627.76M
• Dividend Yield: 8.07%
• Average Volume (3M): 251.53K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 5.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.51
• Revenue Growth: 7.84%
• EPS Growth: 15.69%
• Country: HK
• Employees: 2,976
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Paper, Lumber & Forest Products
• EPS (TTM): 0.07
• Shares Outstanding: 532,000,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 532,200
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 251,533
• PEG Ratio: 0.08
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.67
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.49
• P/FCF Ratio: 4.61
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 67 Neutral
• Price Target: HK$1.50 ▼(-5.06% Downside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 01/20/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 01/20/26

The score is primarily supported by solid financial performance and a very strong balance sheet, plus attractive valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield). These positives are tempered by weak technical signals (below major moving averages and negative momentum) and cash flow reporting/visibility concerns.

Positive Factors

Revenue & margin improvement

Sustained 16.5% revenue growth alongside rising gross and net margins signals growing demand and better pricing or cost control. Over a 2-6 month horizon this underpins more predictable earnings, stronger internal funding for capex/dividends, and improved competitive positioning if execution continues.

Balance sheet strength

Extremely low leverage and a 75% equity ratio provide substantial financial flexibility to absorb cyclical shocks, fund capital expenditure, or pursue strategic investments without heavy refinancing. This durability supports long-term dividend capacity and lowers default risk.

Improving operational margins

Rising EBIT and EBITDA margins point to durable operational improvements and better cost structure across production and overhead. If maintained, these efficiency gains translate into sustained cash generation, improved reinvestment ability, and stronger resilience through commodity cycles.

Negative Factors

Cash flow visibility concerns

Absence of reported latest free cash flow and missing operating cash flow create uncertainty about the company's true cash-generating capacity. Over the medium term this complicates assessments of dividend sustainability, debt servicing and capital allocation, increasing execution risk despite accounting profits.

Cyclical industry exposure

Operating in paper, lumber and forest products means revenues and margins are exposed to end-market cyclicality and raw material price swings. Structural cyclicality can produce prolonged earnings volatility, requiring sustained balance sheet strength and margin discipline to preserve long-term cash flow stability.

Limited guidance & disclosures

Lack of earnings call guidance and few corporate events reduces visibility into management strategy, capital allocation and near-term operational priorities. Over months this makes it harder to gauge execution risk, management intent on dividends or growth, and to model future performance reliably.

Q P Group Holdings Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Q P Group Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and trades in paper products in the People's Republic of China, the United States, Europe, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Web Sales and Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) Sales. The company offers tabletop games, playing cards, puzzles, greeting cards, educational items, and packaging services. It also provides printing services, laboratory testing services, customer services, and information technology support for web sales. In addition, the company engages in property holding activities; and trading and retailing of merchandise. It sells its products to OEM customers, as well as to individual and corporate customers through online sales channels. The company was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in Sha Tin, Hong Kong. Q P Group Holdings Limited is a subsidiary of Good Elite Holdings Limited.

How the Company Makes Money

Q P Group Holdings Limited generates revenue through the manufacturing and distribution of its health and wellness products. The company earns money by selling its products directly to consumers, as well as through partnerships with retailers and e-commerce platforms. Key revenue streams include sales of dietary supplements, personal care items, and other lifestyle-related products. Additionally, the company may engage in strategic partnerships or collaborations with other brands to expand its market reach and enhance its product offerings, contributing further to its earnings.

Q P Group Holdings Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong profitability and growth (revenue +16.5% YoY; net margin up to 10.7%) and a very healthy balance sheet (debt-to-equity 0.06; equity ratio 75%). However, cash flow quality/visibility is a key weakness given missing latest free cash flow and no operating cash flow reported.

Income Statement

Q P Group Holdings has demonstrated robust revenue growth with a 16.5% increase in 2024 compared to 2023. The gross profit margin is strong at 36%, and the net profit margin improved to 10.7% from 7.7% the previous year. EBIT and EBITDA margins have also improved, indicating effective cost management and operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet is healthy with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.06, indicating low financial leverage. Return on equity is a decent 14.6%, reflecting effective use of shareholders' funds. The equity ratio stands at a strong 75%, suggesting solid financial stability and low risk.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows some concerns as free cash flow is not available for the latest period, and there is no operating cash flow reported. Past performance indicates fluctuations in free cash flow but overall positive operating cash flows. This could suggest potential risks in cash management or capital allocation.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.20B	1.21B	1.04B	1.28B	1.39B	1.23B
Gross Profit	438.73M	436.18M	356.09M	416.76M	430.11M	436.87M
EBITDA	194.52M	215.12M	156.93M	205.94M	191.09M	216.13M
Net Income	113.77M	129.12M	80.10M	126.84M	119.04M	129.35M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.25B	1.17B	1.09B	1.18B	1.22B	1.18B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	252.22M	254.21M	164.26M	306.42M	158.78M	236.67M
Total Debt	154.30M	54.13M	50.83M	119.18M	88.92M	92.94M
Total Liabilities	369.06M	288.65M	255.94M	336.39M	373.70M	396.30M
Stockholders Equity	882.61M	882.99M	833.65M	842.84M	846.31M	784.37M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	17.32M	129.18M	-9.09M	201.10M	-5.98M	148.43M
Operating Cash Flow	157.25M	204.95M	112.14M	268.99M	116.23M	193.63M
Investing Cash Flow	4.62M	0.00	-194.99M	-82.00M	-112.58M	-47.72M
Financing Cash Flow	28.87M	0.00	-143.60M	-47.86M	-82.93M	-17.94M

Q P Group Holdings Limited Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 1.58
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:1412, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.58 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.19, above the 50-day MA of 1.33, and above the 200-day MA of 1.50, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 37.30 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.51 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HK:1412.

Q P Group Holdings Limited Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
1412	67 Neutral	HK$627.76M	5.16	12.89%	8.07%	7.84%	15.69%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
8481	59 Neutral	HK$215.78M	5.30	18.36%	―	3.98%	54.49%
1822	56 Neutral	HK$148.03M	-30.30	106.25%	―	-17.96%	-95.06%
3363	46 Neutral	HK$180.00M	19.62	2.11%	6.11%	0.80%	81.27%
0731	45 Neutral	HK$233.41M	-1.62	0.19%	―	-9.44%	―
1580	41 Neutral	HK$328.70M	21.52	-116.56%	―	-35.61%	89.32%

Q P Group Holdings Limited Corporate Events

Q P Group Warns of Profit Halving on Weaker OEM Demand and Vietnam Transition Costs

Q P Group Holdings Limited has issued a profit warning, indicating that consolidated profit attributable to shareholders for the year ended 31 December 2025 is expected to fall to between HK$55 million and HK$65 million, down sharply from HK$129.1 million a year earlier. Management attributes the decline mainly to reduced OEM revenue amid weaker consumer demand in some markets and a lower OEM gross margin caused by transitional costs and reduced efficiency linked to consolidation of production capacity at its Vietnam plant, although web sales recorded mild growth. Despite the anticipated earnings drop, the board maintains confidence in the group’s financial position and long-term prospects, particularly in its trading card manufacturing and web sales businesses, and plans to pursue diversified strategies and expanded partnerships to drive sustainable growth, while cautioning investors that the figures are preliminary and unaudited.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1412) stock is a Hold with a HK$1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Q P Group Holdings Limited stock, see the HK:1412 Stock Forecast page.