HBT Financial (HBT) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $966.88M
• Dividend Yield: 3.21%
• Average Volume (3M): 35.33K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 10.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.91
• Revenue Growth: 3.86%
• EPS Growth: 12.33%
• Country: US
• Employees: 844
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 0.64
• Shares Outstanding: 36,931,923
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 46,377
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 35,325
• PEG Ratio: 1.41
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.32
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.77
• P/FCF Ratio: 11.13
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.89
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.94
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.68
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 7.88
• 1Y Price Target: $30.00
• Price Target Upside: 14.59% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.79
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $300.39M

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: $29.00 ▲(10.77% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/12/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/12/26

Score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (profitability and a strengthening balance sheet) and supportive valuation (low P/E and a solid dividend). Offsetting these positives, technical signals are currently bearish (below key moving averages with negative MACD), which meaningfully reduces the overall score; corporate events are constructive and provide additional support.

Positive Factors

Strengthening balance sheet and conservative leverage

A materially lower debt-to-equity and rising equity provide a durable capital cushion, improving regulatory flexibility and resilience to credit or rate shocks. Conservative leverage supports continued dividend capacity, M&A optionality and lowers solvency risk over the next several quarters.

Sustained high profitability and margins

Consistent revenue growth coupled with strong net and operating margins indicates durable earnings power. Robust margins across recent years support internal capital generation, cushion against margin compression and underpin sustainable shareholder returns like dividends and buybacks.

Strategic M&A and capital actions expanding scale and flexibility

The CNB deal materially expands footprint and lending/deposit scale, while subordinated notes bolster Tier 2 capital and a new repurchase program signals active capital allocation. Together these structural moves strengthen competitive position and provide flexible funding for growth and returns.

Negative Factors

Volatile cash flow with recent sharp FCF decline

Despite strong reported profits, volatile and recently negative free cash flow weakens the company’s internal funding reliability. Persistent cash-flow swings can constrain reinvestment, make dividends/repurchases more dependent on external funding, and increase sensitivity to credit cycles.

Acquisition-related expense and integration execution risk

Near-term expense increases from M&A-related costs and higher compensation can pressure efficiency ratios and reduce expected accretion. Integration complexity and execution risk may delay cost synergies, limiting the anticipated durable benefits from the CNB acquisition.

Moderating returns as capitalization strengthens

Higher capitalization improves stability but can dilute return on equity versus prior peaks. A sustained trade-off of lower leverage for safety may cap ROE and slower EPS growth, limiting upside from return-on-capital expansion absent stronger organic profit growth.

HBT Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

HBT Financial, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Heartland Bank and Trust Company that provides business, commercial, and retail banking products and services to individuals, businesses, and municipal entities. The company's deposits accounts consist of noninterest-bearing demand deposits, interest-bearing transaction accounts, money market accounts, savings accounts, certificates of deposits, health savings accounts, and individual retirement accounts. Its loan offering comprises owner and non-owner occupied commercial real estate; construction and land development and multi-family; commercial and industrial; agricultural and farmland; and one-to-four family residential loans, as well as municipal, consumer, and other loans. The company also offers wealth management services, including financial planning to consumers, trusts, and estates; trustee and custodial; investment management; corporate retirement plan consulting and administration; and retail brokerage services. In addition, it provides farmland management, farmland sales, and crop insurance services; and treasury management services, as well as originates and sells residential mortgage loans. Further, the company offers digital banking services, such as online and mobile banking, and digital payment services, as well as personal financial management tools. It operates through 57 branch locations in Central and Northeastern Illinois and four locations in Eastern Iowa. The company was formerly known as Heartland Bancorp, Inc. and changed its name to HBT Financial, Inc. in September 2019. HBT Financial, Inc. was founded in 1920 and is headquartered in Bloomington, Illinois.

How the Company Makes Money

HBT Financial primarily makes money through its banking subsidiary by earning net interest income and generating noninterest (fee-based) income. Net interest income is produced by collecting interest on loans and other interest-earning assets (such as investment securities and cash balances) and paying interest on funding sources (primarily customer deposits and, when used, wholesale borrowings); the spread between these yields and costs (net interest margin) is a core driver of earnings. Noninterest income generally comes from service charges and fees associated with deposit accounts and payment services (e.g., account maintenance, transaction-related fees), wealth or trust-related services where offered, and other banking fees and miscellaneous income tied to customer activity. Earnings are also influenced by credit performance (loan losses), loan and deposit growth, interest-rate conditions that affect asset yields and funding costs, and operating efficiency (expense management). Specific material partnerships or unusually significant revenue concentrations are null.

HBT Financial Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong overall fundamentals: steady multi-year revenue growth and solid profitability (net margin ~26% in 2025; EBIT margins mid-30%s in 2023–2025). Balance sheet is conservative and improving (debt-to-equity down to ~0.11 in 2025) with healthy ROE (~12–15%). Main risk is cash-flow volatility, including a sharp negative turn in free cash flow growth in 2025 despite good cash conversion versus net income.

Income Statement

Revenue has grown steadily from 2020–2025 (including a strong rebound in 2023 and continued gains in 2024–2025), and profitability is solid with net profit margin improving to ~26% in 2025 versus ~24% in 2020. Operating profitability remains strong (EBIT margin mid-30%s in 2023–2025), though margins are below the unusually high levels seen in 2021–2022, indicating some normalization/pressure versus peak profitability.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks conservative and improving: debt-to-equity declined sharply to ~0.11 in 2025 from ~0.75 in 2022, alongside rising equity over the period. Returns on equity are consistently healthy (roughly 12–15% range), suggesting good profitability without excessive balance-sheet risk; the main watch item is that ROE has moderated from 2022 highs, even as capitalization strengthened.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is generally supportive of earnings: free cash flow tracks net income closely (about 94–100% of net income across years), which is a good quality signal. However, free cash flow growth is volatile and turned sharply negative in 2025 (down materially versus 2024), and operating cash flow has not shown consistent upward momentum (notably lower in 2025 than 2024), which softens the cash-flow profile despite solid profitability.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	293.33M	285.21M	263.64M	186.72M	164.23M
Gross Profit	234.74M	219.33M	218.14M	180.25M	166.49M
EBITDA	109.58M	103.17M	94.36M	80.11M	80.69M
Net Income	77.01M	71.78M	65.84M	56.46M	56.27M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.07B	5.03B	5.07B	4.29B	4.31B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	837.52M	189.98M	901.22M	957.68M	1.35B
Total Debt	65.21M	134.60M	147.33M	280.26M	138.29M
Total Liabilities	4.46B	4.49B	4.58B	3.91B	3.90B
Stockholders Equity	615.50M	544.61M	489.50M	373.63M	411.88M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	73.02M	83.87M	62.70M	71.54M	42.07M
Operating Cash Flow	83.27M	89.37M	65.83M	72.59M	43.10M
Investing Cash Flow	-37.84M	32.35M	132.66M	-335.12M	-349.61M
Financing Cash Flow	-60.85M	-125.28M	-171.40M	-32.57M	403.33M

HBT Financial Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 26.18
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HBT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 26.18 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 26.85, below the 50-day MA of 27.30, and above the 200-day MA of 25.31, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.41 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.01 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 61.22 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HBT.

HBT Financial Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
HFWA	71 Outperform	$1.03B	11.89	7.51%	3.91%	8.27%	54.96%
HBT	70 Outperform	$966.88M	10.55	13.78%	3.21%	3.86%	12.33%
CPF	68 Neutral	$806.31M	10.73	11.65%	3.39%	1.22%	15.97%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
MCB	65 Neutral	$818.39M	11.38	8.80%	0.38%	6.48%	8.78%
EQBK	56 Neutral	$920.51M	37.40	3.37%	1.34%	6.45%	8.32%
HBNC	53 Neutral	$815.52M	-5.75	-20.64%	3.50%	-78.64%	-913.67%

HBT Financial Corporate Events

HBT Financial Issues $85 Million Subordinated Notes Offering

On March 11, 2026, HBT Financial, Inc. issued and sold $85 million of 5.75% fixed-to-floating rate subordinated notes due 2036 in a private placement to institutional accredited investors and qualified institutional buyers, with the securities priced at par and structured to qualify as Tier 2 regulatory capital. The notes pay a fixed 5.75% coupon until March 15, 2031, then reset quarterly at three-month SOFR plus 233 basis points, are callable by the company from 2031 or earlier in limited circumstances, and are unsecured subordinated obligations ranking junior to senior indebtedness.

The company plans to use the net proceeds for general corporate purposes, potentially including share repurchases, signaling both capital optimization and flexibility to support growth, balance-sheet management, or shareholder returns. By bolstering Tier 2 capital through long-dated subordinated debt, HBT Financial enhances its regulatory capital structure and funding profile, which may improve its ability to compete, absorb credit or rate-cycle volatility, and pursue strategic initiatives without immediate reliance on common equity issuance.

The most recent analyst rating on (HBT) stock is a Buy with a $30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on HBT Financial stock, see the HBT Stock Forecast page.

HBT Financial Closes CNB Acquisition, Expands Regional Footprint

On March 1, 2026, HBT Financial, Inc. completed its acquisition of CNB Bank Shares, Inc., folding CNB and its banking subsidiary into Heartland Bank and Trust Company in a stock-and-cash deal valued at about $34 million plus roughly 5.5 million HBT shares. CNB, which brought $1.8 billion in assets, $1.3 billion in loans and $1.5 billion in deposits as of Dec. 31, 2025, extends HBT’s reach in central Illinois as well as the Chicago and St. Louis metropolitan statistical areas.

The transaction, which resulted in CNB’s stock being delisted from the OTC QX Market, is expected to deepen HBT’s community banking presence and support its strategy of growth through acquisitions. In tandem with the merger, HBT and Heartland Bank expanded their boards and appointed former CNB leaders James T. Ashworth and Nancy L. Ruyle as directors effective March 1, 2026, aiming to leverage their community banking expertise as the combined franchise integrates operations and customer bases.

The most recent analyst rating on (HBT) stock is a Buy with a $31.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on HBT Financial stock, see the HBT Stock Forecast page.

HBT Financial Nears Completion of CNB Bank Shares Acquisition

On October 20, 2025, HBT Financial, Inc. entered into a merger agreement to acquire CNB Bank Shares, Inc. and its wholly owned bank subsidiary, CNB Bank & Trust, N.A., marking a strategic expansion of HBT’s community banking footprint. CNB shareholders approved the deal on January 26, 2026, and by January 30, 2026, all required regulatory approvals had been obtained, leaving only customary closing conditions before an expected closing on or around February 27, 2026, a step that is set to further consolidate HBT’s presence in its regional banking markets and potentially enhance its scale and competitive position for customers and investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (HBT) stock is a Buy with a $32.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on HBT Financial stock, see the HBT Stock Forecast page.

HBT Financial Raises Quarterly Dividend, Boosting Shareholder Returns

On January 27, 2026, HBT Financial, Inc.’s board of directors approved a quarterly cash dividend of $0.23 per share on its common stock, payable on February 17, 2026, to shareholders of record as of February 9, 2026. The move, which raises the quarterly payout by $0.02 from the prior $0.21 per share, signals a higher capital return to shareholders and may indicate management’s confidence in the company’s financial performance and outlook.

The most recent analyst rating on (HBT) stock is a Buy with a $32.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on HBT Financial stock, see the HBT Stock Forecast page.

HBT Financial reports Q4 2025 earnings and growth

On January 26, 2026, HBT Financial reported fourth-quarter 2025 net income of $18.9 million, or $0.60 per diluted share, down slightly from both the prior quarter and the year-earlier period, while adjusted net income rose year over year to $20.1 million, or $0.64 per diluted share. The bank posted strong profitability metrics with an adjusted return on average assets of 1.57% and adjusted return on average tangible common equity of 14.97%, supported by loan growth of $56.2 million on an annualized 6.6% basis, stable credit quality with nonperforming assets at 0.17% of total assets and annualized net charge-offs of 0.10%, and a still-robust net interest margin of 4.12% despite modest compression. Net interest income increased both sequentially and versus the fourth quarter of 2024, driven by lower funding costs and higher interest-earning assets, while noninterest income was essentially flat quarter over quarter and lower year over year due mainly to less favorable mortgage servicing rights fair value adjustments. Operating expenses rose due to $1.0 million of acquisition-related costs and higher compensation and benefits, although underlying noninterest expense excluding acquisition items declined sequentially. The company highlighted a 16.2% year-over-year increase in tangible book value per share to $17.20 and said it is progressing with its pending acquisition of CNB Bank Shares, Inc., which is expected to close and convert systems in the first quarter of 2026 and significantly deepen HBT’s presence in the Chicago and St. Louis markets while adding new central Illinois markets.

The most recent analyst rating on (HBT) stock is a Buy with a $30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on HBT Financial stock, see the HBT Stock Forecast page.

HBT Financial Authorizes New $30 Million Share Repurchase

On December 16, 2025, HBT Financial, Inc. approved a new stock repurchase program that will take effect when its existing buyback plan expires on January 1, 2026, authorizing the repurchase of up to $30 million of its common stock through January 1, 2027. The program allows management to buy shares in the open market or through privately negotiated transactions, subject to market conditions, pricing, trading volume and regulatory requirements, and while it signals ongoing capital management efforts that could support shareholder value and earnings-per-share, the company is not obligated to repurchase any specific amount and may suspend or discontinue the plan at any time without notice.

The most recent analyst rating on (HBT) stock is a Buy with a $28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on HBT Financial stock, see the HBT Stock Forecast page.