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Gold Royalty (GROY)
:GROY
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Gold Royalty
(NYSE MKT:GROY)
52Neutral
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
The company expects to post positive free cash flow, enhancing its balance sheet and financial flexibility.
Revenue Growth
Significant revenue growth was driven by the sale of more Gold Equivalent Ounces and increased gold pricing.
Negative Factors
Debt Concerns
The decreased price target is primarily driven by the company's increased debt total amid its slight dilution in the model.
Financial Estimates
Gold Royalty announced preliminary Q3/24 Total Revenue, Land Agreement Proceeds and Interest a bit below our estimates.
Gold Royalty (GROY) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$245.48M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.25M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.77
Revenue Growth186.18%
EPS Growth-125.58%
CountryUS
Employees13
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength60
IndustryOther Precious Metals
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.02
Shares Outstanding170,470,290
10 Day Avg. Volume2,065,996
30 Day Avg. Volume1,248,942
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)112.44
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)-1378.70
P/FCF Ratio27.30
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$3.28Price Target Upside132.62% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
Gold Royalty Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionGold Royalty Corp., a precious metals-focused royalty company, provides financing solutions to the metals and mining industry. It focuses on acquiring royalties, streams, and similar interests at varying stages of the mine life cycle to build a portfolio offering near, medium, and longer-term attractive returns for its investors. The company's portfolio consists of net smelter return royalties ranging from 0.5% to 2.0% on 17 gold properties located in the Americas. Gold Royalty Corp. was incorporated in 2020 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyGold Royalty Corp. generates revenue through its portfolio of royalty and streaming agreements with gold mining companies. Under these agreements, Gold Royalty provides upfront capital to mining operators in exchange for a percentage of the future revenue or gold produced from the mines. This model allows the company to earn a steady stream of income based on the performance and production levels of the partnered mines. The revenue from these agreements is typically structured as a percentage of the gross revenue or a fixed price per ounce of gold produced. Additionally, Gold Royalty may benefit from any appreciation in the price of gold, which can increase the value of its royalty or streaming income. Strategic partnerships with mining companies and the potential for acquiring new royalty interests are significant factors contributing to the company's earnings and growth.
Gold Royalty Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Gold Royalty demonstrates strong revenue growth and a solid equity base, but faces ongoing challenges with profitability and negative cash flows. The company must improve profitability and cash flow management to capitalize on growth opportunities.Income Statement
Gold Royalty shows a significant improvement in revenue, with a notable increase from $582,000 in 2022 to $7,764,000 in TTM, indicating a strong revenue growth trajectory. However, the company continues to face challenges with profitability, evidenced by negative net profit and EBIT margins. The gross profit margin has improved but remains overshadowed by substantial net losses.45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet is strong in terms of equity, with a high equity ratio of approximately 75.8% in TTM. The debt-to-equity ratio remains low, indicating conservative leverage. However, the company’s return on equity remains negative due to ongoing net losses, which poses a risk to financial health if profitability does not improve.60
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash flow from operations shows improvement, although still negative, signaling potential for operational cash generation. Free cash flow has also improved somewhat, but remains negative, highlighting the need for better cash flow management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio indicates inefficiencies, but financing activities have strengthened the cash position.50
Neutral
| Breakdown | |||
| Dec 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 | Sep 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | ||
| 3.05M | 3.94M | 191.99K | 0.00 | Gross Profit |
| 1.56M | 2.19M | 23.33K | ― | EBIT |
| -8.78M | -17.44M | -12.58M | -140.63K | EBITDA |
| -7.76M | -15.57M | -9.92M | -140.58K | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -26.76M | -17.35M | -17.43M | -140.63K |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | ||
| 1.78M | 14.25M | 11.02M | 37.54K | Total Assets |
| 698.30M | 688.61M | 279.50M | 55.46K | Total Debt |
| 33.06M | 9.66M | 47.61K | 0.00 | Net Debt |
| 31.61M | 2.61M | -9.86M | -37.54K | Total Liabilities |
| 177.35M | 152.40M | 54.18M | 196.38K | Stockholders Equity |
| 520.95M | 536.22M | 225.32M | -140.93K |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | ||
| -36.62M | -38.97M | -22.93M | ― | Operating Cash Flow |
| -7.92M | -19.26M | -11.95M | ― | Investing Cash Flow |
| -33.56M | 10.58M | -69.17M | 0.00 | Financing Cash Flow |
| 37.08M | 5.83M | 90.95M | 37.54K |
Gold Royalty Technical Analysis
Negative
1.41
Price Trends
1.40
Positive
1.33
Positive
1.36
Positive
Market Momentum
0.01
Positive
51.48
Neutral
58.90
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GROY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.41 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.44, above the 50-day MA of 1.40, and above the 200-day MA of 1.36, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.48 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 58.90 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GROY.
Gold Royalty Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (47)
Financial Indicators
Performance Comparison
GROY
Gold Royalty
1.41
-0.58
-29.15%
FNV
Franco-Nevada
157.01
39.25
33.33%
RGLD
Royal Gold
164.56
43.30
35.71%
WPM
Wheaton Precious Metals
77.66
28.12
56.76%
SAND
Sandstorm Gold
7.49
2.19
41.32%
OR
Osisko Gold Royalties
21.03
5.01
31.27%
Gold Royalty Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Mar 20, 2025 | % Change Since: -7.84% | Next Earnings Date: May 8, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted significant growth in revenue and production, driven by strategic acquisitions and successful ramp-up of key assets. Despite some concerns about potential production declines at specific mines and existing debt levels, the company remains optimistic about its long-term growth prospects.Highlights
Record Revenues and Positive Cash Flow
Gold Royalty reported record revenues and positive operating cash flows for the full year 2024, with total revenue, land agreement proceeds, and interest reaching $12.8 million, a 146% increase relative to 2023.
Significant GEO Growth Forecast
The company expects to produce between 5,700 and 7,000 GEOs in 2025, representing a midpoint increase of 16% relative to 2024. The five-year outlook forecasts 23,000 to 28,000 GEOs in 2029, an over 360% increase from 2024.
Successful Ramp-Up of Key Assets
Assets such as the Cote Gold mine, Vares copper stream, and Borborema are advancing well, contributing to increased revenue and production. Vares is expected to reach its Phase I run rate in the second half of 2025.
Long-Term Growth Supported by Strategic Acquisitions
The company's growth profile was achieved through strategic acquisitions, securing royalties on large-scale, long-life mines. These assets are expected to drive growth and free cash flow in the coming years.
Lowlights
Potential Production Declines at Certain Assets
Production at Canadian Malartic is expected to be relatively consistent year-over-year, with no growth expected. Additionally, Cozamin's copper production may decline over time as per current life of mine plans.
Debt Load Concerns
While the company plans to pay down its revolving credit facility, the existing debt load is noted as a concern by some analysts. The strategy involves balancing debt repayment with potential future acquisitions.
Company Guidance
During the Gold Royalty Corp. fourth quarter 2024 results conference call, the company provided guidance indicating a significant increase in gold equivalent ounces (GEOs) for the coming years. For 2025, they expect to receive between 5,700 and 7,000 GEOs, marking a midpoint increase of 16% compared to 2024. Looking further ahead, the company has set a five-year outlook, forecasting 23,000 to 28,000 GEOs by 2029, which represents an over 360% increase from 2024. The guidance is supported by the ramp-up of key assets such as Cote, Borborema, and Vares, along with contributions from cornerstone assets like Odyssey, Vares, and Cote. Gold Royalty Corp. also highlighted its focus on maintaining a stable operating cost structure and emphasized capital allocation priorities that include debt repayment and accretive strategic growth. The company assumes a gold price of $2,668 per ounce in 2025 and $2,212 per ounce in the five-year outlook, alongside a copper price of $4.23 and $4.24 per pound, respectively.Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.