Target Healthcare REIT (THRL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: N/A
• Dividend Yield: 6.15%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.12M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 3.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.78
• Revenue Growth: 4.86%
• EPS Growth: -16.65%
• Country: UK
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: General
• Sector Strength: N/A
• Industry: REIT - Healthcare Facilities
• EPS (TTM): 0.03
• Shares Outstanding: 620,237,370
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,213,923
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,116,333
• PEG Ratio: -0.58
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.91
• Price to Sales (P/S): 8.86
• P/FCF Ratio: 15.72
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.06
• Revenue Forecast (FY): £67.28M

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: 113.00 p ▲(15.42% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 12/11/25
• Date: Action: Reiterated 12/11/25

The overall stock score is driven by a solid valuation with a low P/E ratio and high dividend yield, despite concerns over declining cash flow growth and weak technical momentum.

Positive Factors

Contracted long-term lease income

THRL’s business model centres on contracted rent under long-term leases, creating predictable recurring cash flows and rental income. This structural revenue base supports stable distributions, financing capacity and asset-backed resilience over several months to years.

Stable revenue growth

Reported stable revenue growth (3.07% latest year) indicates steady demand and occupancy in purpose-built care homes. Persistent top-line growth helps sustain rental income, asset valuations and reinvestment capacity across a 2–6 month horizon and beyond.

Moderate leverage and healthy equity ratio

A moderate debt-to-equity position and healthy equity ratio provide financial flexibility to fund acquisitions, refinance maturities and maintain distributions. Balanced leverage reduces refinancing risk and supports long-term portfolio management.

Negative Factors

Declining free cash flow growth

A decline in free cash flow growth undermines the firm’s capacity to self-fund capex, developments or acquisitions and may pressure distribution coverage. Persisting weaker FCF reduces buffer against tenant stress or interest cost increases.

Erosion in operating margins

Falling EBIT/EBITDA margins point to weakening operational efficiency or higher operating costs. Margin compression reduces the company’s earnings resilience to cost or rate shocks and limits cash available for reinvestment and dividends.

Operator credit and rent collection risk

THRL’s cash flows depend on care-operator solvency and rent collection. Structural exposure to operator credit risk can impair occupancy and collections, creating sustained cash-flow volatility and raising asset-specific recovery risk over time.

Target Healthcare REIT Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Target Healthcare REIT provide a range of tailored funding solutions to support operators to increase the provision of modern, purpose-built care homes across the UK.

How the Company Makes Money

THRL makes money primarily by owning care home properties and generating rental income from leasing those properties to care home operators. Its core revenue stream is contracted rent under long-term lease agreements, which are typically structured to provide stable, recurring cash flows; where applicable, rents may include upward-only or inflation-linked review mechanisms, though specific lease terms vary by property and operator. The company’s earnings are driven by (1) the level of occupancy of its properties by operators (i.e., properties being fully let), (2) rent collection performance and the financial health of tenant operators, and (3) portfolio growth through acquisitions and development funding that add additional rent-producing assets. THRL can also realize gains (or losses) through changes in property valuations and through disposals of assets; however, these are not the primary, recurring source of operating cash flow. Financing structure (debt levels and interest costs) and operating expenses (property management, administration, and REIT compliance costs) affect net income and cash available for distributions.

Target Healthcare REIT Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Target Healthcare REIT shows stable revenue growth and profitability with a balanced financial structure. However, declining cash flow growth and operational efficiency are concerns.

Income Statement

The income statement shows a stable revenue growth rate of 3.07% in the latest year, with strong gross and net profit margins. However, there is a noticeable decline in EBIT and EBITDA margins compared to previous years, indicating potential pressure on operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a moderate debt-to-equity ratio, indicating a balanced leverage position. The return on equity has been positive, although it has shown some fluctuations. The equity ratio remains healthy, suggesting a stable financial structure.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a decline in free cash flow growth, which could be a concern. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio remains strong, indicating efficient cash generation relative to earnings.

Breakdown	TTM	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021	Jun 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	74.61M	72.93M	78.48M	67.75M	63.86M	49.98M
Gross Profit	66.40M	64.84M	78.48M	60.14M	56.55M	44.18M
EBITDA	82.27M	59.59M	58.00M	0.00	0.00	0.00
Net Income	77.93M	60.84M	73.02M	-6.57M	49.10M	43.88M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	976.51M	986.19M	967.37M	908.26M	963.66M	718.39M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	67.17M	39.64M	38.88M	15.37M	34.48M	21.11M
Total Debt	200.94M	240.29M	240.67M	227.05M	231.38M	127.90M
Total Liabilities	236.22M	273.73M	278.08M	253.45M	264.89M	153.21M
Stockholders Equity	740.28M	712.46M	689.29M	654.81M	698.77M	565.18M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	43.49M	41.10M	42.34M	29.66M	30.39M	24.96M
Operating Cash Flow	43.49M	41.10M	42.34M	29.66M	30.39M	24.96M
Investing Cash Flow	68.08M	-3.23M	3.42M	-3.55M	-202.63M	-43.58M
Financing Cash Flow	-82.31M	-37.11M	-22.24M	-45.23M	185.62M	3.29M

Target Healthcare REIT Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 97.90
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:THRL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 97.9 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 103.27, below the 50-day MA of 103.27, and above the 200-day MA of 96.70, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.73 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.26 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 42.33 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:THRL.

Target Healthcare REIT Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
THRL	71 Outperform	―	3.22	8.61%	6.15%	4.86%	-16.65%
PHP	63 Neutral	£2.37B	14.75	6.03%	7.30%	0.96%	―
SOHO	61 Neutral	£275.43M	-24.26	-11.64%	8.16%	-4.24%	-273.62%
Sector *	55 Neutral	$6.65B	3.83	-15.92%	6.20%	10.91%	7.18%
RESI	48 Neutral	£94.74M	-9.88	-6.64%	6.96%	―	―
LABS	48 Neutral	£135.45M	-1.34	-12.37%	―	4.55%	23.43%

Target Healthcare REIT Corporate Events

Target Healthcare REIT posts record half-year return as it recycles capital and strengthens balance sheet

Target Healthcare REIT, a specialist investor in modern UK care homes, owns 86 properties valued at £894.6 million and leases them to 32 tenants on long, inflation-linked contracts. Its portfolio is positioned at the premium end of the care home market, with energy-efficient, post-2000 buildings designed to offer en suite wet rooms and generous space for residents.

For the six months to 31 December 2025, the Group delivered a total accounting return of 6.8%, its strongest half-year since launch, as EPRA NTA per share rose 4% to 119.4p and adjusted earnings per share increased 8.5%. Management recycled capital by selling ten assets at an average 11.7% premium to book value and reinvesting about £45 million into high-performing Scottish homes, while reducing net LTV to 15.2%, extending debt maturities, and maintaining 99% rent collection and stable rent cover, reinforcing balance-sheet strength and sector outperformance.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:THRL) stock is a Hold with a £111.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Target Healthcare REIT stock, see the GB:THRL Stock Forecast page.

Target Healthcare REIT to Host Online Interim Results Presentation for Investors

Target Healthcare REIT has announced that senior representatives from its investment manager, Target Fund Managers, will host a live online presentation to discuss the company’s interim results. The event, scheduled for 23 March 2026 via the Investor Meet Company platform, is open to both existing and potential shareholders, who can submit questions in advance or during the session.

By using a broad, free-to-access digital platform, the company is enhancing transparency and engagement with its investor base, offering stakeholders a direct channel to management commentary on recent performance and outlook. This increased accessibility may support investor confidence and could help broaden the shareholder register by making detailed information on the REIT’s operations more widely available.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:THRL) stock is a Hold with a £111.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Target Healthcare REIT stock, see the GB:THRL Stock Forecast page.

Target Healthcare REIT sets date for half-year results as care home portfolio hits £894.6m

Target Healthcare REIT, a UK-listed FTSE 250 real estate investment trust, specialises in modern, purpose-built care homes and is externally managed to deliver income and capital growth to shareholders. Its portfolio stood at 86 properties let to 32 tenants, valued at £894.6 million as of 31 December 2025, reflecting a diversified exposure to the care home sector.

The company announced it will release its half-year results for the six months to 31 December 2025 on 18 March 2026, accompanied by a live audio webcast for analysts and investors. The forthcoming update is expected to provide insight into the performance of its care home portfolio and the resilience of its income streams, which are underpinned by long-term leases to operators with strong care and operational credentials.

By highlighting its collaborative approach with tenants and emphasis on high-quality, purpose-built facilities, Target Healthcare underlines its strategy of combining social care outcomes with financial returns. This positioning may be particularly significant for stakeholders seeking defensive, income-focused exposure to the UK healthcare real estate market amid ongoing demographic demand for elderly care.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:THRL) stock is a Hold with a £110.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Target Healthcare REIT stock, see the GB:THRL Stock Forecast page.

Target Healthcare REIT Boosts NAV and Prunes Portfolio as It Recycles Capital into Higher-Yield Care Homes

Target Healthcare REIT reported a 1.4% rise in EPRA Net Tangible Assets per share to 119.4p as at 31 December 2025, with a twelfth consecutive quarter of positive total returns driven by active portfolio recycling and inflation-linked rent reviews. The company completed the sale of nine care homes for £85.9m at an 11.6% premium to June 2025 carrying value and disposed of an additional asset at a similar premium, while redeploying more than half the proceeds into three modern, operational care homes in central Scotland and a forward-funded fourth asset, all at blended net initial yields above 6%. The portfolio now comprises 86 operational homes valued at £894.6m, with 99% rent collection, average rent cover of 2.0x on mature assets, a WAULT of 26.3 years, and 100% of properties rated EPC A or B, underscoring resilient cash flows and strong ESG credentials. Adjusted EPRA EPS was 1.69p for the quarter, fully covering the 1.508p dividend, and net LTV fell to 15.2% as proceeds are progressively redeployed, with around £100m of capital available and a growing pipeline of higher-yielding, purpose-built care home investments that are expected to lift leverage towards the 25% area.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:THRL) stock is a Hold with a £115.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Target Healthcare REIT stock, see the GB:THRL Stock Forecast page.