Triple Point Social Housing REIT PLC (SOHO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: £289.59M
• Dividend Yield: 8.16%
• Average Volume (3M): 908.54K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.59
• Revenue Growth: -4.24%
• EPS Growth: -273.62%
• Country: UK
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: REIT - Residential
• EPS (TTM): N/A
• Shares Outstanding: 393,466,500
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 737,688
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 908,537
• PEG Ratio: 0.03
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.60
• Price to Sales (P/S): 5.97
• P/FCF Ratio: 8.04
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.06
• Revenue Forecast (FY): £40.70M

• Rating: 61 Neutral
• Price Target: 81.00p ▲(18.25% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 12/30/25
• Date: Action: Reiterated 12/30/25

The score is primarily held back by the 2024 earnings reversal to a net loss and weaker free cash flow despite solid operating margins and manageable leverage. Technicals are supportive with price above key moving averages and positive MACD. Valuation is mixed: an attractive dividend yield is offset by a negative P/E tied to losses, while recent dividend and governance-related events provide an additional, modest positive.

Positive Factors

Stable, inflation-linked rental income

SOHO’s core model is long-term leases to registered providers and specialist operators, often with rent review/indexation. That structure produces predictable, inflation-linked rental income, supporting durable dividend capacity and reducing revenue cyclicality vs transactional property models.

Strong operating margins

The business shows consistently high gross and operating margins, indicating efficient property operations and stable rental cash conversion. For a social-housing REIT this reflects low variable costs and scale benefits, supporting resilience of core earnings over the medium term.

Manageable leverage and balanced capital structure

Reported debt-to-equity in the ~0.45–0.67 range implies moderate gearing for a residential REIT, giving capacity to finance acquisitions and absorb interest-rate moves. A balanced capital structure helps preserve dividend flexibility and lowers refinancing strain relative to highly levered peers.

Negative Factors

2024 earnings reversal to net loss

A reversal to a net loss in 2024 signals material below-the-line volatility (revaluations, financing, or one-offs) that undermines earnings quality. Persistent losses would weaken retained earnings, pressure dividend sustainability, and erode investor confidence in long-term return generation.

Weaker, volatile free cash flow

A ~30% drop in free cash flow and inconsistent coverage metrics reduce the firm’s ability to reliably fund dividends, capex, and debt service. For a cash-distributing REIT, persistent FCF volatility increases refinancing risk and constrains strategic investments over the medium term.

Softening revenue trend

A decline in revenue interrupts prior growth momentum and may reflect pressures on occupancy, rent collection, or tenant funding in social housing. Continued top-line weakness would compress operating leverage, reduce margin headroom, and limit sustainable dividend coverage over multiple reporting periods.

Triple Point Social Housing REIT PLC Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Triple Point Social Housing REIT plc (the Company) is a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) incorporated in England and Wales under the Companies Act 2006 as a public company limited by shares on 12 June 2017. The address of the registered office is 1 King William Street, London, United Kingdom, EC4N 7AF. The Company is registered as an investment company under section 833 of the Companies Act 2006 and is domiciled in the United Kingdom. The principal activity of the Company is to act as the ultimate parent company of Triple Point Social Housing REIT plc and its subsidiaries (the Group) and to provide shareholders with an attractive level of income, together with the potential for capital growth from investing in a portfolio of social homes.

How the Company Makes Money

Triple Point Social Housing REIT PLC generates revenue primarily through the rental income derived from its portfolio of social housing properties. The company leases these properties to housing associations and care providers on a long-term basis, ensuring a stable and predictable cash flow. These leases are typically inflation-linked, providing a hedge against inflation and supporting revenue growth over time. Additionally, the company benefits from government-backed rental payments, as its tenants are often eligible for housing benefits, which further secures the revenue stream. The company's strategic partnerships with local authorities and care providers also contribute to its ability to maintain high occupancy rates and ensure consistent income generation.

Triple Point Social Housing REIT PLC Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Operating profitability remains strong and leverage appears reasonably balanced, but 2024 saw a sharp swing to a sizable net loss and a meaningful drop in free cash flow, increasing near-term earnings and cash-flow volatility.

Income Statement

Revenue has been broadly stable but has softened recently (down ~4% in 2024 vs. 2023 after prior years of growth). Profitability at the operating level remains strong with consistently high gross and operating margins, but 2024 saw a sharp swing to a net loss (net margin ~-93%) after solid profitability in 2021–2023, indicating elevated below-the-line volatility and weaker earnings quality in the most recent year.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks manageable for a residential REIT, with debt-to-equity generally in the ~0.45–0.67 range, though it has drifted higher versus 2019–2020 levels. Total assets and equity declined in 2024, and the move to negative return on equity in 2024 (after positive ROE in prior years) flags pressure on shareholder returns, but the capital structure still appears reasonably balanced rather than highly levered.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow remained positive and improved in 2024, but free cash flow fell sharply (down ~30% in 2024). Cash generation has been somewhat uneven over time, with stronger growth in some years and declines in others. A notable watch item is that cash flow coverage metrics appear inconsistent in 2024 (reported as 0.0), which clouds assessment of cash flow strength despite positive absolute cash generation.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	39.07M	39.18M	39.84M	37.41M	33.12M	28.93M
Gross Profit	33.46M	34.35M	34.61M	32.71M	28.57M	24.83M
EBITDA	25.21M	27.16M	0.00	0.00	0.00	22.26M
Net Income	-44.55M	-36.39M	34.99M	24.90M	28.41M	24.59M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	642.22M	658.81M	713.05M	705.01M	699.99M	630.06M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	25.14M	26.90M	29.45M	30.14M	52.47M	53.70M
Total Debt	261.58M	262.91M	262.65M	262.55M	260.16M	196.38M
Total Liabilities	266.24M	269.06M	265.43M	265.73M	263.88M	201.41M
Stockholders Equity	375.98M	389.74M	447.62M	439.29M	436.11M	428.65M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	12.95M	29.07M	25.86M	18.49M	19.10M	19.92M
Operating Cash Flow	23.11M	29.07M	25.86M	25.70M	24.71M	24.51M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.96M	-2.32M	7.55M	-18.49M	-61.24M	-94.37M
Financing Cash Flow	-21.67M	-28.86M	-34.10M	-29.55M	35.71M	57.99M

Triple Point Social Housing REIT PLC Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 68.50
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:SOHO, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 68.5 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 76.96, below the 50-day MA of 73.35, and above the 200-day MA of 68.38, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.71 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.89 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 28.56 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for GB:SOHO.

Triple Point Social Housing REIT PLC Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GRI	67 Neutral	£1.33B	7.07	10.30%	3.62%	-8.66%	553.35%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
SOHO	61 Neutral	£289.59M	-24.26	-10.89%	8.16%	-4.24%	-273.62%
KCR	59 Neutral	£4.27M	14.63	2.62%	―	4.96%	―
PSDL	51 Neutral	£161.62M	-6.51	―	―	―	―
RESI	48 Neutral	£102.14M	-9.88	―	6.96%	―	―

Triple Point Social Housing REIT PLC Corporate Events

Social Housing REIT Declares Interim Dividend for Q3 2025

Social Housing REIT plc has announced an interim dividend of 1.4055 pence per Ordinary Share for the period from 1 July 2025 to 30 September 2025, payable on or around 19 December 2025. The company aims for a total dividend of 5.622 pence per share for the financial year ending 31 December 2025. This announcement reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to providing sustainable income for its shareholders while supporting vulnerable adults through its specialised housing investments.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:SOHO) stock is a Hold with a £57.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Triple Point Social Housing REIT PLC stock, see the GB:SOHO Stock Forecast page.

Social Housing REIT Strengthens Board with New Appointments

Social Housing REIT plc has announced the appointment of Jos Short and Fionnuala Hogan as independent Non-Executive Directors, effective March 2026 and November 2025, respectively. These appointments are part of a planned succession strategy, with Jos succeeding Chris Phillips as Chair of the Board and Fionnuala succeeding Peter Coward as Audit Committee Chair. The new directors bring extensive experience in real estate and governance, which is expected to strengthen the company’s leadership and support its strategic goals.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:SOHO) stock is a Hold with a £57.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Triple Point Social Housing REIT PLC stock, see the GB:SOHO Stock Forecast page.