Want to see GB:NWG full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
NatWest Group
(LSE:NWG)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
703.00 p
▲(12.30% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/04/26
The score is driven mainly by mixed fundamentals: strong profitability and improving leverage are offset by highly inconsistent (and most recently negative) operating/free cash flow. Technical indicators further weigh on the score due to weak momentum and trading below key moving averages. These risks are partially balanced by attractive valuation (low P/E, high dividend yield) and a generally positive earnings call with raised income guidance and strong capital generation.
Positive Factors
Lending growth
Sustained loan book expansion across mortgages and commercial clients supports long-term net interest income and diversification of funding returns. Broad-based growth (retail and C&I) increases scale, boosts franchise lending franchise revenue, and reduces single-segment dependency over coming quarters.
Negative Factors
Volatile cash generation
Inconsistent operating and free cash flow undermines earnings quality and reduces predictable internally generated funds for lending, investment, and distributions. Recurring negative cash conversion increases reliance on balance-sheet management and can pressure liquidity and regulatory buffers in stress periods.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Lending growth
Sustained loan book expansion across mortgages and commercial clients supports long-term net interest income and diversification of funding returns. Broad-based growth (retail and C&I) increases scale, boosts franchise lending franchise revenue, and reduces single-segment dependency over coming quarters.
Read all positive factors
NatWest Group (NWG) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
£53.24B
Dividend Yield3.85%
Average Volume (3M)21.15M
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.4
Beta (1Y)1.68
Revenue Growth2.05%
EPS Growth20.10%
CountryUK
Employees59,400
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Diversified
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.90
Shares Outstanding7,963,385,000
10 Day Avg. Volume15,436,107
30 Day Avg. Volume21,150,626
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.34
Price to Book (P/B)1.38
Price to Sales (P/S)1.76
P/FCF Ratio-3.03
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
£771.00Price Target Upside23.16% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)0.73
Revenue Forecast (FY)£18.04B
NatWest Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
NatWest Group plc, a venerable financial institution established in Edinburgh, UK, in 1727, delivers a comprehensive array of banking and financial services. Serving a broad spectrum of clients, including individual consumers, small and medium-siz...
How the Company Makes Money
NatWest Group makes money mainly by earning interest and fees from providing banking and related financial services.
1) Net interest income (interest margin): A core driver is the spread between (a) interest earned on assets such as mortgages, pe...
NatWest Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 01, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a broad set of positive operational and financial outcomes — robust lending and deposit growth, strong AUM inflows, improved efficiency, high RoTE, EPS and capital generation, and clearer medium-term income tailwinds from hedging — while acknowledging manageable near-term headwinds: a one-off macro-driven provision, mortgage margin re-pricing as COVID-era deals roll off, market-driven AUM volatility and some YoY cost increases tied to accelerated investment and restructuring. Management maintained full-year guidance (income now at the top end of the prior range), highlighted resilience in credit quality and strong stress-test performance, and signaled continued confidence despite geopolitical and competitive pressures.Positive Updates
Strong lending growth
Customer lending grew 6.6% year-on-year to GBP 400 billion with GBP 7.3 billion of lending growth in Q1 (including GBP 3.3 billion in mortgages and GBP 3.8 billion in Commercial & Institutional).
Negative Updates
Incremental impairment provision linked to macro uncertainty
Quarterly impairment charge was GBP 283 million (26 bps of loans), including an additional GBP 140 million provision driven by revised macroeconomic scenarios (higher inflation and rates remaining at 3.75%). Underlying impairment excluding this was 16 bps.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong lending growth
Customer lending grew 6.6% year-on-year to GBP 400 billion with GBP 7.3 billion of lending growth in Q1 (including GBP 3.3 billion in mortgages and GBP 3.8 billion in Commercial & Institutional).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management raised 2026 income guidance to the top end of the £17.2–£17.6bn range (ex‑Evelyn), kept full‑year costs around £8.2bn (ex‑Evelyn), and reiterated a loan impairment rate below 25bps for 2026 after taking a Q1 ECL provision of £140m (Q1 impairment £283m, 26bps; underlying 16bps); they also expect ~200bps of capital generation before distributions this year (65bps generated in Q1), plan to operate at around 13% CET1 (Q1 CET1 14.3%), see product hedge reinvestment at c.3.9% and equity hedge c.4.7%, and retain the >4% p.a. CAL growth target to 2028 (client assets & liabilities just over £900bn, up 5.2% y/y).NatWest Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
64
Positive
Cash Flow
38
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 29.79B | 29.84B | 14.34B | 14.17B | 12.98B | 11.75B |
| Gross Profit | 17.05B | 16.30B | 14.34B | 14.78B | 13.35B | 10.34B |
| EBITDA | 8.80B | 8.79B | 7.25B | 7.50B | 6.38B | 4.77B |
| Net Income | 5.99B | 5.83B | 4.80B | 4.64B | 3.59B | 3.27B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 749.64B | 714.55B | 707.99B | 692.67B | 720.05B | 781.99B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 135.78B | 98.23B | 182.46B | 104.52B | 145.06B | 177.76B |
| Total Debt | 6.64B | 71.83B | 65.92B | 127.26B | 116.55B | 125.60B |
| Total Liabilities | 705.97B | 671.94B | 668.61B | 655.49B | 683.56B | 740.19B |
| Stockholders Equity | 39.08B | 38.03B | 39.35B | 37.16B | 36.49B | 41.80B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | -17.35B | 694.00M | -14.92B | -44.24B | 52.79B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 0.00 | -16.68B | 1.77B | -13.37B | -43.60B | 53.69B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -15.91B | -12.70B | -14.69B | 19.06B | 3.06B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 0.00 | 22.41B | -1.89B | -23.52B | -10.65B | -2.60B |
NatWest Group Technical Analysis
Positive
626.00
Price Trends
621.88
Positive
597.56
Positive
592.77
Positive
Market Momentum
11.04
Positive
59.10
Neutral
61.73
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:NWG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 626 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 664.60, above the 50-day MA of 621.88, and above the 200-day MA of 592.77, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 11.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 59.10 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 61.73 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:NWG.
NatWest Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | £256.41B | 16.45 | 12.07% | 4.27% | -10.53% | 7.24% | |
70 Outperform | £69.69B | 11.66 | 9.46% | 1.50% | 7.44% | 15.64% | |
69 Neutral | £45.73B | 13.53 | 10.34% | 1.70% | -13.41% | 33.11% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | £64.78B | 14.39 | 10.75% | 3.41% | -18.98% | 23.57% | |
60 Neutral | £53.24B | 7.44 | 14.55% | 3.85% | 2.05% | 20.10% | |
53 Neutral | £296.25M | 37.20 | 1.89% | ― | 0.07% | ― |
* Financial Sector Average
GB:NWG
NatWest Group
669.40
194.89
41.07%
GB:STAN
Standard Chartered
2,103.00
798.51
61.21%
GB:BARC
Barclays
516.70
170.83
49.39%
GB:HSBA
HSBC Holdings
1,492.20
593.16
65.98%
GB:LLOY
Lloyds Banking
111.50
35.75
47.19%
GB:VANQ
Vanquis Banking Group
116.80
16.60
16.57%
NatWest Group Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
NatWest advances buyback with fresh share purchases and cancellations
Positive
Jul 17, 2026
NatWest Group has continued to execute its share buyback programme, purchasing several million ordinary shares over the past week from UBS across venues including the London Stock Exchange, CHIX and BATE. The transactions were made at prices in th...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
NatWest advances share buyback with July market purchases
Positive
Jul 10, 2026
NatWest Group has continued to execute its share buyback programme, purchasing more than 2.3 million ordinary shares over several trading days in July across the London Stock Exchange, Cboe Europe (CHIX) and BATE venues. The transactions were carr...
Business Operations and Strategy
NatWest Group Adds Jefferies as Joint Corporate Broker
Positive
Jul 7, 2026
NatWest Group plc is a major U.K.-based banking and financial services institution, offering retail, commercial and corporate banking solutions. The group serves a broad range of customers, from individuals to large corporates, and is a significan...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
NatWest Directors Lift Shareholdings Under Governance Policy
Positive
Jul 2, 2026
NatWest Group has disclosed that its chair and several non‑executive directors, including the senior independent director, purchased modest quantities of ordinary shares on 1 July 2026 on the London Stock Exchange under the company’s s...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
NatWest seals £2.7bn Evelyn Partners deal to build U.K. wealth giant
Positive
Jul 1, 2026
NatWest Group has completed its £2.7 billion acquisition of wealth manager Evelyn Partners, creating what it describes as the U.K.’s leading private banking and wealth management franchise. The deal combines Evelyn’s £69 bill...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
NatWest Updates Total Voting Rights and Share Capital
Neutral
Jun 30, 2026
NatWest Group plc reported its total voting rights and issued share capital as of 30 June 2026, detailing ordinary shares in circulation, those held in treasury and cumulative preference shares. The bank’s ordinary shares have a nominal valu...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
NatWest strengthens board with appointment of former BMO executive Ernie Johannson
Positive
Jun 29, 2026
NatWest Group has appointed Erminia (Ernie) Johannson as an independent non-executive director effective 1 July 2026, adding a seasoned executive with more than three decades of experience in banking and investment management to its board. Johanns...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
NatWest Discloses Share Sale by Interim Chief Risk Officer
Neutral
Jun 24, 2026
NatWest Group has disclosed a share transaction by interim group chief risk officer Sean Pilcher, who sold 35,328 ordinary shares in the bank at £6.57 each on 24 June 2026. The sale, conducted on the London Stock Exchange, was reported in lin...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
NatWest discloses share sale by Commercial & Institutional CEO
Neutral
Jun 17, 2026
NatWest Group has disclosed a share transaction by one of its senior executives under UK Market Abuse Regulation reporting rules. Robert Begbie, CEO of the bank’s Commercial Institutional division, sold 150,000 ordinary shares in the group ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
NatWest prices USD 1.25bn senior callable notes to bolster funding
Positive
Jun 16, 2026
NatWest Group plc has priced a USD 1.25 billion issuance of 4.983% Senior Callable Fixed-to-Fixed Reset Rate Notes due 2032, with proceeds earmarked to support its general banking business. The transaction, expected to close on 18 June 2026 subjec...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
NatWest steps up share buybacks with fresh £1 nominal stock repurchases
Positive
Jun 12, 2026
NatWest Group has continued its share buyback programme, purchasing more than 3.4 million ordinary shares over several trading venues between 8 and 11 June 2026 at volume-weighted average prices around 589 to 596 pence. The company has stated that...
Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
NatWest Executives Receive Vested Share Awards and Execute Planned Stock Sales
Neutral
Jun 10, 2026
NatWest Group has reported the vesting of deferred share awards under its 2024 Employee Share Plan to several senior executives, including CEO Paul Thwaite and CFO Katie Murray, with shares both retained and withheld to cover tax liabilities at a ...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
NatWest advances buyback with fresh share purchases and cancellations
Positive
Jun 5, 2026
NatWest Group has continued its existing share buyback programme, purchasing several tranches of ordinary shares over the period 1–5 June 2026 from UBS across multiple trading venues including the London Stock Exchange, CHI-X and BATS Europe...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
NatWest Continues Share Buyback, Cancels Newly Repurchased Stock
Positive
May 29, 2026
NatWest Group has continued its capital management strategy by repurchasing ordinary shares as part of its existing buyback programme, executing transactions through UBS on multiple trading venues. The bank intends to cancel the repurchased stock,...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
NatWest updates shareholders on total voting rights and share capital
Neutral
May 29, 2026
NatWest Group has confirmed the composition of its share capital and voting rights as of 29 May 2026, detailing nearly 8.16 billion shares in issue across ordinary and preference share classes. The disclosure shows approximately 7.97 billion ordin...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
NatWest discloses share sale by Private Banking & Wealth CEO
Neutral
May 29, 2026
NatWest Group has disclosed a share transaction involving one of its senior executives, in line with UK Market Abuse Regulation requirements. The group, a key player in UK retail and private banking, runs a significant Private Banking Wealth Mana...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
NatWest Continues Share Buyback, Plans Cancellation of Repurchased Shares
Positive
May 22, 2026
NatWest Group has continued executing its share buyback programme, repurchasing hundreds of thousands of ordinary shares over several trading venues between 18 and 21 May 2026. The purchases, carried out via UBS on the London Stock Exchange and al...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
NatWest Advances Buyback with New Round of Share Repurchases
Positive
May 15, 2026
NatWest Group has continued executing its existing share buyback programme, repurchasing several million ordinary shares over the past week through UBS across multiple trading venues, including the London Stock Exchange, CHIX and BATE. The purchas...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
NatWest grants and vests executive share awards under 2024 plan
Neutral
May 14, 2026
NatWest Group has granted and immediately vested Sharing in Success awards under its 2024 Employee Share Plan to several senior executives, including CEO Paul Thwaite and other key PDMRs, with shares subject to clawback for up to ten years and a 1...
Business Operations and Strategy
Fitch lifts NatWest subsidiaries’ ratings to AA, outlook stable
Positive
May 13, 2026
NatWest Group said Fitch Ratings has upgraded the long-term Issuer Default Ratings of several key banking subsidiaries, including National Westminster Bank, The Royal Bank of Scotland and NatWest Markets entities, to AA from AA-, following changes...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
NatWest Discloses Share Sale by Commercial and Institutional CEO
Neutral
May 12, 2026
NatWest Group has disclosed that Robert Begbie, its CEO for Commercial Institutional, sold 150,000 ordinary shares in the bank at a price of £5.8358 per share on 11 May 2026. The transaction, carried out on the London Stock Exchange, is repo...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
NatWest Advances Share Buyback, Cancels 2.75 Million Shares
Positive
May 8, 2026
NatWest Group has continued to execute its existing share buyback programme, purchasing around 2.75 million ordinary shares over the past week through UBS across the London Stock Exchange and other venues. The bank plans to cancel the repurchased ...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
NatWest Board Boosts Shareholdings via Dividend Reinvestment
Positive
May 7, 2026
NatWest Group has disclosed that several persons discharging managerial responsibility, including chair Rick Haythornthwaite and multiple independent non-executive directors, have increased their holdings in the bank through dividend reinvestment....
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
NatWest advances capital return with latest share buyback tranche
Positive
May 1, 2026
NatWest Group has continued its capital return strategy with further share buybacks, purchasing several million ordinary shares over the week to 1 May 2026 from UBS across the London Stock Exchange and alternative trading venues. The highest price...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
NatWest Updates £40bn Euro Medium-Term Note Programme with New Supplement
Neutral
May 1, 2026
NatWest Group has published a second supplementary prospectus to its £40 billion Euro Medium Term Note Programme, originally established in December 2025 and recently approved by the Financial Conduct Authority. The document, now available vi...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
NatWest posts strong Q1 2026 results and raises income guidance
Positive
May 1, 2026
NatWest Group reported a robust first quarter for 2026, with total income excluding notable items of £4.2 billion and operating profit of £2.0 billion, both ahead of the prior year. Attributable profit rose to £1.4 billion, earnings...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
NatWest lifts 2026 income outlook after strong first quarter
Positive
May 1, 2026
NatWest Group reported a strong start to 2026, with Q1 operating profit rising to £2.0 billion and attributable profit reaching £1.4 billion, driven by total income excluding notable items of £4.2 billion and an 18.2% return on tang...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
NatWest Updates Total Voting Rights and Share Capital as of 30 April 2026
Neutral
Apr 30, 2026
NatWest Group has disclosed its total voting rights and issued share capital as of 30 April 2026, detailing the number of ordinary shares in issue, those held in treasury, and cumulative preference shares. The company reported total issued shares ...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsShareholder Meetings
NatWest investors back all resolutions at 2026 AGM, approve 23p dividend
Positive
Apr 28, 2026
NatWest Group shareholders approved all resolutions at the 2026 annual general meeting in Edinburgh, including the receipt of the 2025 report and accounts and the appointment of PricewaterhouseCoopers as auditors. Investors also backed a final div...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsShareholder Meetings
NatWest Investors Back Board, Dividend and Capital Flexibility at AGM
Positive
Apr 28, 2026
NatWest Group shareholders overwhelmingly backed the board and management at the bank’s annual general meeting in Edinburgh, approving the 2025 report and accounts, the directors’ remuneration report and a final dividend of 23 pence pe...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesStock BuybackDividendsShareholder Meetings
NatWest pivots to growth-focused future after full return to private ownership
Positive
Apr 28, 2026
NatWest Group’s 2026 AGM marked the first full year since its return to complete private ownership after the UK government exited its stake in 2025, which the board framed as a symbolic shift from post‑crisis recovery to long‑ter...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
NatWest Advances Share Buyback With Multi‑Venue Repurchases
Positive
Apr 24, 2026
NatWest Group has continued to execute its share buyback strategy, repurchasing several million ordinary shares over the past week via UBS across the London Stock Exchange and alternative venues at prices mostly between about 579p and 613p. The ba...
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
NatWest Declares Half-Year Dividends on High-Coupon Preference Shares
Positive
Apr 20, 2026
NatWest Group has declared half-yearly dividends on its 11 per cent and 5.5 per cent cumulative preference shares for the period to 31 March 2026, continuing its practice of returning value to holders of these legacy instruments. The dividends, se...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.