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Diageo plc (GB:DGE)
LSE:DGE

Diageo (DGE) AI Stock Analysis

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GB

Diageo

(LSE:DGE)

73Outperform
Diageo's overall stock score reflects strong financial performance and an attractive valuation, bolstered by a solid dividend yield. However, the stock faces bearish technical indicators, and the earnings call highlights significant challenges like tariffs and increased leverage. Recent corporate events signal positive strategic initiatives and confidence from management, contributing to the overall positive outlook.
Positive Factors
Cash Generation
Solid cash generation with $1.65bn significantly exceeding consensus expectations.
Financial Performance
Diageo reported in-line organic sales and EBIT growth, which was better than consensus expectations.
Market Share and Growth
1H25 featured signs of improvement, including market share gains and organic growth in 4/5 regions.
Negative Factors
Guidance Withdrawal
Diageo withdrew its medium-term guidance for +5-7% organic net sales growth due to macro and geopolitical uncertainty.
Industry Downturn
Lack of visibility to an inflection point in the spirits industry's long-lasting cyclical downturn keeps analysts on the sidelines.
Tariff Impact
US Tariffs remain the main question mark, particularly affecting tequila and Canadian whiskies.

Diageo (DGE) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Diageo Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionDiageo plc, together with its subsidiaries, produces, markets, and sells alcoholic beverages worldwide. The company offers scotch, whisky, gin, vodka, rum, ready to drink products, Irish cream liqueur, raki, liqueur, wine, tequila, Canadian whisky, American whiskey, cachaca, and brandy, as well as beer, including cider and non-alcoholic products. It provides its products under the Johnnie Walker, Crown Royal, Bulleit and Buchanan's whiskies, Smirnoff, Cîroc and Ketel One vodkas, Casamigos, DeLeon and Don Julio tequilas, Captain Morgan, Baileys, Tanqueray, and Guinness brands. The company has operations in North America, Europe, Turkey, Africa, Latin America, the Caribbean, the Asia Pacific, and internationally. The company was incorporated in 1886 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
How the Company Makes MoneyDiageo makes money primarily through the production, distribution, and sale of alcoholic beverages. Its revenue streams are largely derived from its extensive portfolio of spirits and beer brands, which are sold across various markets globally. The company capitalizes on strong brand recognition, premium pricing strategies, and a broad distribution network. Additionally, Diageo engages in strategic partnerships and marketing initiatives to enhance brand visibility. The company also benefits from its focus on premiumization, catering to consumer demand for high-quality and luxury products, which often carry higher profit margins. Furthermore, Diageo invests in innovation and product diversification to capture market trends and expand its consumer base.

Diageo Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Diageo demonstrates solid financial performance with steady revenue growth and strong operational margins. While leverage has increased, the company maintains a robust cash flow position. The slight dip in net profit margin and ROE indicates areas that require attention, but overall, Diageo is positioned well in the alcoholic beverages industry.
Income Statement
78
Positive
Diageo has shown a consistent revenue growth with a 2023 revenue of $17.11 billion compared to $15.45 billion in 2022, marking a growth rate of approximately 10.73%. The gross profit margin remains strong at 60.5% in 2023, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin decreased from 25.97% in 2022 to 22.63% in 2023, suggesting some pressure on net income. EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust, reflecting strong operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
The debt-to-equity ratio increased slightly from 2.11 in 2022 to 2.35 in 2023, indicating a higher leverage position which could pose risks in volatile markets. The return on equity (ROE) slightly decreased from 56.51% in 2022 to 49.73% in 2023, suggesting a slight decline in profitability relative to shareholders' equity. The equity ratio remained relatively stable, signifying a steady capital structure.
Cash Flow
75
Positive
Operating cash flow increased to $3.26 billion in 2023 from $3.02 billion in 2022, reflecting improved cash generation capabilities. The free cash flow to net income ratio improved, indicating better conversion of profits into cash. However, the free cash flow growth rate is moderate at 11.79% from 2022 to 2023, suggesting room for improvement in cash flow management.
Breakdown
Jun 2024Jun 2023Jun 2022Jun 2021Jun 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
16.10B17.11B15.45B12.73B11.75B
Gross Profit
9.74B10.21B9.48B7.70B7.10B
EBIT
6.00B4.63B4.41B3.73B2.14B
EBITDA
5.41B5.63B4.93B4.20B4.48B
Net Income Common Stockholders
3.87B4.45B3.94B2.66B1.73B
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.11B1.79B2.54B2.87B3.40B
Total Assets
35.97B35.62B36.52B31.95B33.31B
Total Debt
18.62B16.50B16.02B14.73B16.79B
Net Debt
17.49B15.06B13.73B11.98B13.46B
Total Liabilities
26.43B26.33B27.00B23.52B24.87B
Stockholders Equity
7.94B7.82B7.80B6.90B6.77B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
2.06B1.84B2.84B3.03B1.62B
Operating Cash Flow
3.26B3.02B3.94B3.65B2.32B
Investing Cash Flow
-1.44B-1.20B-1.34B-1.09B-805.00M
Financing Cash Flow
-2.46B-2.41B-3.26B-2.79B1.04B

Diageo Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price2053.00
Price Trends
50DMA
2109.40
Negative
100DMA
2262.04
Negative
200DMA
2347.25
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-26.38
Negative
RSI
48.01
Neutral
STOCH
61.86
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:DGE, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 2053 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2039.87, below the 50-day MA of 2109.40, and below the 200-day MA of 2347.25, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -26.38 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.01 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 61.86 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for GB:DGE.

Diageo Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
81
Outperform
£116.86B23.9530.27%3.17%-0.76%-12.83%
GBABF
80
Outperform
£14.43B10.3513.06%3.14%1.64%44.38%
GBDGE
73
Outperform
$45.62B16.2335.82%3.70%-3.88%-11.33%
71
Outperform
£21.94B13.7710.18%3.81%――
67
Neutral
£69.23B23.085.92%7.46%-5.19%―
63
Neutral
$20.85B14.17-16.36%3.22%1.30%4.55%
GBCCL
59
Neutral
£17.50B10.2625.36%―10.73%418.37%
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GB:DGE
Diageo
2,053.00
-625.14
-23.34%
GB:ABF
Associated British Foods
2,005.00
-308.77
-13.34%
GB:BATS
British American Tobacco
3,155.00
1,052.41
50.05%
GB:CCL
Carnival
1,197.00
162.00
15.65%
GB:TSCO
Tesco plc
327.70
52.25
18.97%
GB:ULVR
Unilever
4,671.00
1,022.63
28.03%

Diageo Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Feb 4, 2025 | % Change Since: -11.90% | Next Earnings Date: Aug 5, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed outlook with both positive momentum in sales and market share gains, particularly in Tequila and Guinness, but also highlighted challenges like operating profit decline, tariff impacts, and increased leverage. The company's strategy and investments are showing some positive results, but macroeconomic challenges and tariffs create significant uncertainties.
Highlights
Return to Organic Net Sales Growth
Organic net sales grew by 1% in the first half of fiscal '25, with growth in four out of five regions, including North America.
Market Share Gains
Held or gained market share in 65% of net sales in measured markets, with significant share gains in the U.S., Europe, and Greater China.
Strong Performance in Tequila and Guinness
Tequila organic net sales were up 21%, with Don Julio leading growth. Guinness achieved its 8th consecutive half of double-digit growth, delivering 17% organic net sales growth.
Improved Free Cash Flow
Free cash flow increased by $125 million to approximately $1.7 billion, driven by working capital management.
Positive Price Mix
Four out of five regions delivered positive price mix, driven by Tequila in North America and Guinness in Europe.
Lowlights
Decline in Organic Operating Profit
Organic operating profit declined by 1.2%, mainly due to increased overhead costs including staff costs and strategic investments.
Scotch Sales Decline
Scotch organic net sales declined by 5%, driven by softer industry performance in North America and Greater China.
Impact of Tariffs
Recent U.S. tariffs on goods imported from Canada and Mexico create uncertainty and could impact future growth.
EPS Decline
Pre-exceptional EPS declined by about 10%, mainly due to performance of Moet Hennessy and unfavorable foreign exchange.
Increased Leverage
Leverage ratio increased to 3.1x, above the target range, due to lower EBITDA and previous share buybacks.
Company Guidance
In the first half of fiscal 2025, Diageo reported an organic net sales growth of 1%, with significant contributions from regions like North America, which saw a slight but meaningful improvement. The company maintained or increased market share in 65% of its measured markets, with strong performances from brands like Don Julio and Guinness. Although organic operating profit declined by 1.2% due to increased overheads, gross profit rose by $83 million, aided by easing inflationary pressures. Free cash flow improved by $125 million, reaching approximately $1.7 billion. The company faced challenges like recent tariff announcements affecting 45% of U.S. net sales, particularly impacting tequila and Canadian whiskey. Despite this, Diageo remains focused on driving sustainable top-line growth, enhancing operating leverage, and maximizing shareholder returns through strategic investments and efficiency improvements.

Diageo Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Diageo Announces Executive Share Transactions Under Incentive Plan
Neutral
Apr 11, 2025

Diageo plc announced transactions under its 2001 Share Incentive Plan, where partnership shares were purchased and matching shares awarded to key executives, including the Chief Financial Officer and members of the Executive Committee. This move, disclosed in compliance with the UK Market Abuse Regulation, highlights Diageo’s ongoing commitment to incentivize its leadership team, potentially impacting its market positioning by aligning executive interests with shareholder value.

Spark’s Take on GB:DGE Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, GB:DGE is a Outperform.

Diageo’s overall stock score is driven by strong financial performance and attractive valuation, supported by a solid dividend yield. Despite these strengths, technical indicators suggest a bearish market trend, and earnings call uncertainties related to tariffs and increased leverage pose challenges. The executive’s share purchase signals confidence but is a secondary factor in the overall assessment.

To see Spark’s full report on GB:DGE stock, click here.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Diageo Launches $1.5 Billion Bond Offering
Positive
Apr 11, 2025

Diageo has announced the launch and pricing of a $1.5 billion bond offering, consisting of two tranches of fixed rate notes due in 2030 and 2035. The proceeds from this issuance will be used for general corporate purposes, and the bond offering is scheduled to settle on April 15, 2025. This strategic financial move is expected to support Diageo’s ongoing operations and strengthen its market position.

Spark’s Take on GB:DGE Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, GB:DGE is a Outperform.

Diageo’s overall stock score is driven by strong financial performance and attractive valuation, supported by a solid dividend yield. Despite these strengths, technical indicators suggest a bearish market trend, and earnings call uncertainties related to tariffs and increased leverage pose challenges. The executive’s share purchase signals confidence but is a secondary factor in the overall assessment.

To see Spark’s full report on GB:DGE stock, click here.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Diageo Chair Purchases Shares in Compliance with Market Regulations
Neutral
Apr 10, 2025

Diageo plc announced that Sir John Manzoni, the Chair, has purchased 315 ordinary shares at a price of £20.79 per share under an arrangement with the company. This transaction, conducted on April 10, 2025, on the London Stock Exchange, aligns with the UK Market Abuse Regulation, reflecting the company’s commitment to transparency in managerial dealings.

Spark’s Take on GB:DGE Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, GB:DGE is a Outperform.

Diageo’s overall stock score is driven by strong financial performance and attractive valuation, supported by a solid dividend yield. Despite these strengths, technical indicators suggest a bearish market trend, and earnings call uncertainties related to tariffs and increased leverage pose challenges. The executive’s share purchase signals confidence but is a secondary factor in the overall assessment.

To see Spark’s full report on GB:DGE stock, click here.

Dividends
Diageo Announces Sterling Equivalent of Interim Dividend
Neutral
Apr 9, 2025

Diageo has announced the Sterling equivalent of its interim dividend, set at 31.48 pence per ordinary share, based on a conversion rate of US$1=£0.77728. This announcement follows the earlier declaration of a 40.50 US cents interim dividend per share, with the payment scheduled for 24 April 2025. The exchange rate was determined through forward contracts, reflecting Diageo’s strategic financial management.

Spark’s Take on GB:DGE Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, GB:DGE is a Outperform.

Diageo’s overall stock score is driven by strong financial performance and attractive valuation, supported by a solid dividend yield. Despite these strengths, technical indicators suggest a bearish market trend, and earnings call uncertainties related to tariffs and increased leverage pose challenges. The executive’s share purchase signals confidence but is a secondary factor in the overall assessment.

To see Spark’s full report on GB:DGE stock, click here.

Other
Diageo Executive Purchases Company Shares
Positive
Apr 2, 2025

Diageo plc announced a transaction involving the purchase of its ordinary shares by Daniel Mobley, a member of the Executive Committee. This transaction, conducted on the London Stock Exchange, reflects managerial confidence in the company’s performance and may influence investor perceptions positively.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Diageo Grants Incentive Awards to Diageo India CEO-Designate
Neutral
Mar 14, 2025

Diageo has announced the grant of options and conditional awards to Praveen Someshwar, CEO-Designate of Diageo India, under its 2023 Long Term Incentive Plan. These awards, which are subject to performance conditions, aim to align management incentives with shareholder interests and enhance Diageo’s strategic positioning in the Indian market.

Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Diageo Executive’s Share Transactions Highlight Regulatory Compliance
Neutral
Mar 11, 2025

Diageo announced a transaction involving Hina Nagarajan, a member of its Executive Committee, who released ordinary shares under the company’s Long Term Incentive Plan and sold shares to cover tax liabilities. This transaction, conducted in compliance with UK Market Abuse Regulation, highlights the company’s ongoing commitment to transparency and regulatory adherence, potentially impacting stakeholder perceptions and market positioning.

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Diageo Announces Share Transactions Under Incentive Plan
Neutral
Mar 10, 2025

Diageo announced transactions involving its 2001 Share Incentive Plan, where partnership shares were purchased and matching shares awarded. This move, involving key executives, aligns with regulatory requirements and reflects Diageo’s commitment to employee investment, potentially impacting stakeholder confidence and market perception.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Diageo CFO Engages in Share Transactions
Neutral
Mar 4, 2025

Diageo announced that its Chief Financial Officer, Nik Jhangiani, engaged in transactions involving the release of Ordinary Shares under a Special Recruitment Award and the sale of shares to cover tax liabilities. This notification is in compliance with the UK Market Abuse Regulation and reflects the company’s transparency in disclosing managerial share dealings, potentially impacting investor confidence and stakeholder trust.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Diageo Announces Total Voting Rights and Capital Structure
Neutral
Mar 3, 2025

Diageo plc announced its total voting rights and capital structure as of February 28, 2025. The company reported an issued capital of 2,432,425,127 Ordinary Shares, with 207,238,114 shares held in Treasury. The total number of voting rights available to shareholders is 2,225,187,013, which is crucial for determining shareholder interests under regulatory guidelines.

Private Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Diageo Enhances Debt Issuance Program with Prospectus Supplement
Neutral
Feb 18, 2025

Diageo plc, along with its subsidiaries Diageo Finance plc and Diageo Capital B.V., has announced the publication of a supplement to the base prospectus for their debt issuance program, which was approved by the Financial Conduct Authority. This development indicates Diageo’s ongoing efforts to manage its financial instruments and potentially expand its capital-raising capabilities, reflecting its strategic focus on maintaining robust financial operations.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Diageo Announces Executive-Associated Share Purchase
Neutral
Feb 14, 2025

Diageo plc has announced a transaction involving the purchase of its ordinary shares by Diana Mobley, associated with Dan Mobley, a member of the Executive Committee. This transaction, compliant with the UK Market Abuse Regulation, involved 2,280 shares purchased at £21.81 each on the London Stock Exchange, potentially reflecting confidence in the company’s market position and future prospects.

Business Operations and Strategy
Diageo Completes Executive Share Transactions Under Incentive Plan
Neutral
Feb 10, 2025

Diageo has announced the completion of share transactions under the Diageo 2001 Share Incentive Plan, involving key executives and members of the executive committee. This initiative allows for the purchase of partnership shares and awards matching shares, enhancing employee investment in the company. By engaging top executives in share transactions, Diageo aims to align management interests with shareholder value, potentially impacting the company’s market positioning and stakeholder confidence.

DividendsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Diageo Reports 1% Organic Sales Growth Amid Market Challenges
Neutral
Feb 4, 2025

Diageo reported a slight decline in net sales due to unfavorable foreign exchange but achieved organic sales growth of 1% in the first half of the fiscal year. Despite challenging market conditions, the company maintained or grew its market share in 65% of measured markets. Notable growth was seen in the North American market, driven by brands like Don Julio and Crown Royal. The company faces uncertainties like tariffs in the US but remains confident about long-term industry fundamentals and strategic investments in digital capabilities and supply chain improvements. The interim dividend remains unchanged at 40.5 cents per share, and the company has removed medium-term guidance due to macroeconomic uncertainties.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Diageo Announces Total Voting Rights for January 2025
Neutral
Feb 3, 2025

Diageo plc announced that as of January 31, 2025, its issued capital consisted of over 2.4 billion Ordinary Shares, with approximately 207 million held in Treasury without voting rights. The total number of voting rights available to shareholders is over 2.2 billion, which is crucial for determining shareholder interests under regulatory guidelines.

Diageo Chairman Purchases Company Shares
Jan 13, 2025

Diageo plc has announced that its Chairman, Javier Ferrán, has purchased 332 ordinary shares at £24.96 each under an arrangement with the company. This transaction, conducted on the London Stock Exchange, aligns with UK Market Abuse Regulation requirements and is part of the company’s ongoing shareholding activities.

Diageo Announces Share Transactions under Incentive Plan
Jan 13, 2025

Diageo plc has announced transactions related to its 2001 Share Incentive Plan, involving the purchase of partnership shares and the awarding of matching shares. This initiative is part of the company’s efforts to align employee interests with corporate performance, potentially impacting stakeholder perception positively.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.