FS Bancorp (FSBW) Risk Analysis

Our business depends on the creditworthiness of our customers. As with most financial institutions, we maintain an ACL on loans to reserve for estimated potential losses on loans from defaults and represents management's best estimate of expected credit losses inherent in the loan portfolio. Determining the appropriate level of the ACL on loans involves estimating future losses at the time a loan is originated or acquired, incorporating a broader range of information and future economic scenarios. The determination of the appropriate level of the ACL on loans inherently involves a high degree of subjectivity and requires us to make various assumptions and judgments about the collectability of our loan portfolio, including the creditworthiness of borrowers and the value of the real estate and other assets serving as collateral for the repayment of many of our loans. In determining the amount of the ACL on loans, we review loans and our historical loss and delinquency experience and evaluate economic conditions. Management also recognizes that significant new growth in loan portfolios, new loan products, and the refinancing of existing loans can result in portfolios comprised of unseasoned loans that may not perform in a historical or projected manner and will increase the risk that our ACL may be insufficient to absorb credit losses without significant additional provisions. If our assumptions are incorrect, our ACL on loans may not be sufficient to cover actual losses, resulting in additional provisions for credit losses on loans to replenish the ACL on loans. Deterioration in economic conditions, new information regarding existing loans, identification of additional problem loans or relationships, and other factors, both within and outside of our control, may increase our loan charge-offs and/or otherwise require an increase in our provision for credit losses on loans.  In addition, bank regulatory agencies periodically review our ACL on loans.  Based on their assessment, they may require additional provisions for credit losses or loan charge-offs. Any increase in the provision for credit losses on loans affects net income and could materially impact our financial condition, results of operations, and capital.

The Company has a residential mortgage warehouse lending program that focuses on three Pacific Northwest mortgage banking companies. Short-term funding is provided to the mortgage banking companies for the purpose of originating residential mortgage loans for sale into the secondary market. Our warehouse lending lines are secured by the underlying notes associated with mortgage loans made to borrowers by the mortgage banking company and we generally require guarantees from the principal shareholder(s) of the mortgage banking company. Because these loans are repaid when the note is sold by the mortgage bank into the secondary market, with the proceeds from the sale used to pay down our outstanding loan before being dispersed to the mortgage bank, interest rate fluctuation is also a key risk factor affecting repayment. At December 31, 2023, we had approved residential warehouse lending lines to three companies in varying amounts from $3.0 million to $10.0 million, for an aggregate amount of $22.0 million. At December 31, 2023, there was $573,000 outstanding under these residential warehouse lines, compared to no amounts outstanding at December 31, 2022. There are numerous risks associated with residential mortgage warehouse lending, which include, without limitation, (i) credit risks relating to the mortgage bankers that borrow from us, (ii) the risk of intentional misrepresentation or fraud by any of these mortgage bankers, (iii) changes in the market value of mortgage loans originated by the mortgage banker, the sale of which is the expected source of repayment of the borrowings under the warehouse line of credit, due to changes in interest rates during the time in warehouse, (iv) unsalable or impaired mortgage loans originated, which could lead to decreased collateral value and the failure of a purchaser of the mortgage loan to purchase the loan from the mortgage banker, and (v) the volatility of mortgage loan originations. The underlying collateral risks associated with our residential mortgage warehouse lines are similar to the risks related to our one-to-four-family residential mortgage loans. Additionally, the impact of interest rates on our residential mortgage warehouse lending business is similar to the impact on our mortgage banking operations as discussed below under "Revenue from mortgage banking operations is sensitive to changes in economic conditions, decreased economic activity, a slowdown in the housing market, higher interest rates or new legislation and may adversely impact our financial condition and results of operations."

Our lending activities include extending real estate construction loans to individuals and builders, primarily for residential property development.  As of December 31, 2023, our construction and development loan portfolio totaled $303.1 million, constituting 12.5% of our total gross loan portfolio, excluding $154.6 million in unfunded construction loan commitments.  Of this portfolio, $210.7 million was allocated to residential real estate projects. Additionally, we had four commercial note-secured lines of credit totaling $57.5 million in commitments, directed towards residential construction re-lenders with an outstanding balance of $17.0 million at December 31, 2023. The risks associated with the collateral underlying our commercial construction warehouse lines are similar to those associated with our residential construction and development loans. Construction financing inherently involves a higher degree of credit risk compared to longer-term financing on improved, owner-occupied real estate. Factors contributing to elevated risk levels in construction lending include advanced disbursement of funds based on estimated project costs to achieve future value at completion, uncertainties in estimating construction costs and the market value of completed projects, and the influence of governmental regulations on real property which may impact project valuations. Changes in demand for new housing and higher than anticipated building costs may cause actual results to vary significantly from those estimated. This type of lending also typically involves higher loan principal amounts and may be concentrated with a small number of builders. A downturn in housing, or the real estate market, could increase delinquencies, defaults and foreclosures, and significantly impair the value of our collateral and our ability to sell the collateral upon foreclosure. Some of the builders we deal with have more than one loan outstanding with us. Consequently, an adverse development with respect to one loan or one credit relationship can expose us to a significantly greater risk of loss. In addition, during the term of most of our construction loans, no payment from the borrower is required since the accumulated interest is added to the principal of the loan through an interest reserve. As a result, these loans often involve the disbursement of funds with repayment substantially dependent on the success of the ultimate project and the ability of the borrower to sell or lease the property or obtain permanent take-out financing, rather than the ability of the borrower or guarantor to repay principal and interest. If our appraisal of the value of a completed project proves to be overstated, we may have inadequate security for the repayment of the loan upon completion of construction of the project and may incur a loss. Also, construction loans require active monitoring of the building process, including cost comparisons and on-site inspections, making these loans more difficult and costly to monitor. Increases in market rates of interest can substantially increase borrowing costs for end-purchasers, potentially reducing the ability of homeowners to finance completed homes or overall demand for projects. Properties under construction are often difficult to sell and typically must be completed in order to be successfully sold which also complicates the process of working out problem construction loans. This may require us to advance additional funds and/or contract with another builder to complete construction and assume the market risk of selling the project at a future market price, which may or may not enable us to fully recover unpaid loan funds and associated construction and liquidation costs. Furthermore, a portion of our outstanding construction and development loans comprises $131.3 million in speculative one-to-four-family construction loans and $38.5 million in land acquisition and development loans as of December 31, 2023.  Speculative construction loans involve financing projects without a committed buyer in place, relying on market demand upon project completion for sale.  Consequently, the success of these loans heavily depends on prevailing market conditions at the project's completion. Fluctuations in market demand for such properties can significantly impact their salability and subsequent loan repayment. As these projects advance without a predetermined purchaser, completion and subsequent sale are imperative for loan repayment. The absence of a confirmed buyer during the construction phase introduces uncertainty and potential challenges in ensuring a successful project.  Land acquisition loans are often associated with properties lacking income-generating capabilities. Without income streams from the property, repayment primarily depends on successful development, sale, or lease of the land. Unlike developed properties, undeveloped land can be illiquid, meaning it may not readily convert to cash. The lack of income and potential challenges in liquidating the collateral could impact repayment capabilities in the event of default.  Given the inherent uncertainties associated with speculative construction and land loans, rigorous monitoring practices are essential. Active oversight, continuous evaluation of market conditions, and careful management of these loan types are crucial to mitigate associated risks and minimize potential adverse impacts on our loan portfolio and financial standing. At December 31, 2023, $4.7 million in real estate construction and development loans were nonperforming. A substantial increase in nonperforming loans in this segment could significantly affect our financial condition and results of operations.

At December 31, 2023, our commercial business loan portfolio included commercial and industrial loans of $238.3 million, or 9.8%, and warehouse lending of $17.6 million, or 0.7%, of our total gross loan portfolio. Commercial business lending involves risks that are different from those associated with residential and commercial real estate lending. Real estate lending is generally considered to be collateral-based lending with loan amounts based on predetermined loan to collateral values and liquidation of the underlying real estate collateral being viewed as the primary source of repayment in the event of borrower default. Our commercial and industrial business loans are primarily made based on the cash flow of the borrower and secondarily on the underlying collateral provided by the borrower. The borrowers' cash flow may be unpredictable and collateral securing these loans may fluctuate in value. This collateral may consist of equipment, inventory, accounts receivable, or other business assets. In the case of loans secured by accounts receivable, the availability of funds for the repayment of these loans may be substantially dependent on the ability of the borrower to collect amounts due from its customers. Other collateral securing these loans may depreciate over time, may be difficult to appraise, may be illiquid, and may fluctuate in value based on the specific type of business and equipment. As a result, the availability of funds for the repayment of commercial and industrial business loans may be substantially dependent on the success of the business itself, which, in turn, is often dependent in part upon general economic conditions and secondarily on the underlying collateral provided by the borrower. For additional information related to the risks of warehouse lending, see "Our residential mortgage warehouse lending and construction warehouse lending programs are subject to various risks that could adversely impact our results of operations and financial condition."

We employ hedging techniques to mitigate the adverse impacts of rising interest rates on our loans held for sale and interest rate locks provided to customers. Our hedging strategies adapt to varying interest rate levels and market dynamics, utilizing tools such as forward contracts, put and call options on securities, and other mortgage-backed derivatives. However, hedging strategies are not perfect and may not fully shield us from potential losses.  The effectiveness of interest rate hedging could be compromised due to several factors, including but not limited to the following: - Hedging strategies might not entirely align with the specific interest rate risks they aim to mitigate. - The duration of the hedge may not match the underlying liability's duration, impacting its effectiveness. - Risks arise from potential defaults or credit downgrades of counterparties involved in hedging transactions, impacting our ability to execute or assign our side of the hedge. - Changes in fair value adjustments mandated by accounting standards can affect the value of derivatives used for hedging, leading to mark-to-market losses. - Mark-to-market losses could reduce our stockholders' equity. We may enter into derivative financial instruments such as interest rate swaps in order to mitigate our interest rate risks.  These instruments expose us to several risks: - Potential loss due to variations in the spread between the interest rate contract and the hedged item. - Risks related to the counterparty's inability to fulfill obligations. - Exposure to fluctuations and uncertainties in underlying asset prices due to interest rates and market volatility. - Liquidity risk associated with the ease of buying or selling these instruments. Losses on interest rate hedging derivatives could adversely affect our business, financial condition and prospects, leading to decreased net income. We designate interest rate swaps as effective cash flow hedges under Accounting Standards Codification ("ASC") 815, "Derivatives and Hedging." Regular evaluations measure hedge effectiveness and any ineffectiveness may result from factors such as debt early retirement or counterparty creditworthiness.  Ineffective hedges could materially impact our operations and cash flows, causing volatility in our financial results. Additionally, changes in accounting standards related to these derivatives, particularly ASC 815, could significantly increase earnings volatility.

Our securities portfolio may be impacted by fluctuations in market value, potentially reducing accumulated other comprehensive income and/or earnings. Fluctuations in market value may be caused by changes in market interest rates, rating agency actions in respect to the securities, defaults by the issuer or with respect to the underlying securities, lower market prices for securities and limited investor demand. Our available-for-sale debt securities in an unrealized loss position are evaluated to determine whether the decline in fair value has resulted from credit losses or other factors. If a credit loss exists, an allowance for credit losses is recorded for the credit loss, resulting in a charge against earnings. Changes in interest rates can also have an adverse effect on our financial condition, as our available-for-sale securities are reported at their estimated fair value, and therefore are impacted by fluctuations in interest rates. Generally, the fair value of fixed-rate securities fluctuates inversely with changes in interest rates. Unrealized gains and losses on securities available-for-sale are reported as a separate component of AOCI, net of tax. Decreases in the fair value of securities available-for-sale resulting from increases in interest rates could have an adverse effect on shareholders' equity. There can be no assurance that the declines in market value will not result in credit losses, which would lead to additional provision for credit losses that could have a material adverse effect on our net income and capital levels.

We are required by federal regulatory authorities to maintain adequate levels of capital to support our operations.  At some point, we may need to raise additional capital or issue additional debt to support our growth or replenish future losses. Our ability to raise additional capital or issue additional debt depends on conditions in the capital markets, economic conditions, and a number of other factors, including investor perceptions regarding the banking industry, market conditions, and governmental activities, and on our financial condition and performance. Such borrowings or additional capital, if sought, may not be available to us or, if available, may not be on favorable terms. Accordingly, we cannot make assurances that we will be able to raise additional capital or issue additional debt if needed on terms that are acceptable to us, or at all. If we cannot raise additional capital or issue additional debt when needed, our ability to further expand our operations could be materially impaired and our financial condition and liquidity could be materially and adversely affected. In addition, any additional capital we obtain may dilute the interests of existing holders of our common stock. Further, if we are unable to raise additional capital when required by our bank regulators, we may be subject to adverse regulatory action.

Effective liquidity management is essential for the operation of our business. We require sufficient liquidity to meet customer loan requests, customer deposit maturities/withdrawals, payments on our debt obligations as they come due, and other cash commitments under both normal operating conditions and other unpredictable circumstances causing industry or general financial market stress. Our access to funding sources in amounts adequate to finance our activities on terms that are acceptable to us could be impaired by factors that affect us specifically, or the financial services industry or economy generally. Factors that could detrimentally impact our access to liquidity sources include a downturn in the geographic markets in which our loans and operations are concentrated or difficult credit markets. Our access to deposits may also be affected by the liquidity needs of our depositors. In particular, a majority of our liabilities are checking accounts and other liquid deposits, which are payable on demand or upon several days' notice, while by comparison, a substantial majority of our assets are loans, which cannot be called or sold in the same time frame. Although we have historically been able to replace maturing deposits and advances as necessary, we might not be able to replace such funds in the future, especially if a large number of our depositors seek to withdraw their accounts, regardless of the reason. A failure to maintain adequate liquidity could materially and adversely affect our business, results of operations, or financial condition. See "Item 7. Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations – Liquidity" of this Form 10–K.

Our earnings and cash flows are largely dependent upon our net interest income. Interest rates are highly sensitive to many factors that are beyond our control, including general economic conditions and policies of various governmental and regulatory agencies and, in particular, the Federal Reserve. Since March 2022, in response to inflation, the Federal Open Market Committee ("FOMC") of the Federal Reserve has increased the target range for the federal funds rate by 525 basis points, including 100 basis points during 2023, to a range of 5.25% to 5.50% as of December 31, 2023. The FOMC has paused increases to the target federal funds rate but has not ruled out future increases. If the FOMC further increases the targeted federal funds rates, overall interest rates will likely rise, which will negatively impact our net interest income and may negatively impact both the housing market by reducing refinancing activity and new home purchases and the U.S. economy. We principally manage interest rate risk by managing our volume and mix of our earning assets and funding liabilities. If we are unable to manage interest rate risk effectively, our business, financial condition, and results of operations could be materially affected. Changes in interest rates could also have a negative impact on our results of operations by reducing the ability of borrowers to repay their current loan obligations or by reducing our margins and profitability. Our net interest margin is the difference between the yield we earn on our interest-earning assets and the interest rate we pay for deposits and our other sources of funding. Changes in interest rates-up or down-could adversely affect our net interest margin and, as a result, our net interest income. Although the yield we earn on our interest-earning assets and our funding costs tend to move in the same direction in response to changes in interest rates, one can rise or fall faster than the other, causing our net interest margin to expand or contract. Our interest-bearing liabilities tend to be shorter in duration than our interest-earning assets, so they may adjust faster in response to changes in interest rates. As a result, when interest rates rise, our funding costs may rise faster than the yield we earn on our interest-earning assets, causing our net interest margin to contract until the yields on interest-earning assets catch up. Changes in the slope of the "yield curve", or the spread between short-term and long-term interest rates could also reduce our net interest margin. Normally, the yield curve is upward sloping, meaning short-term rates are lower than long-term rates. Because our interest-bearing liabilities tend to be shorter in duration than our interest-earning assets, when the yield curve flattens or even inverts, we could experience pressure on our net interest margin as our cost of funds increases relative to the yield we can earn on our interest-earning assets. Also, interest rate decreases can lead to increased prepayments of loans and mortgage-backed securities as borrowers refinance their loans to reduce borrowing costs. Under these circumstances, we are subject to reinvestment risk as we may have to redeploy such repayment proceeds into lower yielding investments, which would likely hurt our income. A sustained increase in market interest rates could adversely affect our earnings. As is the case with many financial institutions, we attempt to increase core deposits, those deposits bearing no or a relatively low rate of interest with no stated maturity date, which has been challenging over the last couple of years. At December 31, 2023, we had $863.4 million in certificates of deposit that mature within one year and $1.43 billion in noninterest bearing, NOW checking, savings and money market accounts. We would incur a higher cost of funds to retain these deposits in a rising interest rate environment. If the interest rates paid on deposits and other borrowings increase at a faster rate than the interest rates received on loans and other investments, our net interest income, and therefore earnings, could be adversely affected. In addition, a substantial amount of our residential mortgage loans and home equity lines of credit have adjustable interest rates. As a result, these loans may experience a higher rate of default in a rising interest rate environment. Our net income can also be reduced by the impact that changes in interest rates can have on the fair value of our capitalized MSRs. At December 31, 2023, we serviced $2.83 billion of loans sold to third parties, and the servicing rights associated with such loans had an amortized cost of $17.2 million and an estimated fair value, at that date, of $38.2 million. Because the estimated life and estimated income to be derived from servicing the underlying loans generally increase with rising interest rates and decrease with falling interest rates, the value of MSRs generally increases as interest rates rise and decreases as interest rates fall. For example, a decrease in mortgage interest rates typically increases the prepayment speeds of MSRs and therefore decreases the fair value of the MSRs.  Future decreases in mortgage interest rates could decrease the fair value of our MSRs below their recorded amount, which would decrease our earnings. For additional information, see "Note 1 - Basis of Presentation and Summary of Significant Account Policies - Subsequent Events", "Note 5 – Mortgage Servicing Rights" and "Note 16 – Fair Value Measurements" of the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements included in "Item 8. Financial Statements and Supplementary Data" of this Form 10–K. Changes in interest rates also affect the value of our interest-earning assets and in particular, our investment securities portfolio. Generally, the fair value of fixed-rate securities fluctuates inversely with changes in interest rates. Unrealized gains and losses on securities available for sale are reported as a separate component of equity, net of tax. Decreases in the fair value of securities available for sale resulting from increases in interest rates could have an adverse effect on stockholders' equity. Changes in interest rates also affect the current market value of our interest-earning securities portfolio. Generally, the value of securities moves inversely with changes in interest rates. At December 31, 2023, the fair value of our investment securities available for sale totaled $292.9 million. Unrealized net losses on these available for sale securities totaled approximately $35.8 million at December 31, 2023 and are reported as a separate component of stockholders' equity. Decreases in the fair value of securities available for sale in future periods would have an adverse effect on stockholders' equity. Although management believes it has implemented effective asset and liability management strategies to reduce the potential effects of changes in interest rates on our results of operations, any substantial, unexpected, or prolonged change in market interest rates could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations. Also, our interest rate risk modeling techniques and assumptions likely may not fully predict or capture the impact of actual interest rate changes on our balance sheet or projected operating results. See "Item 7. Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations – Asset and Liability Management and Market Risk" of this Form 10–K.