La Francaise des Jeux SA (FR:FDJU)
:FDJU
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La Francaise des Jeux SA
(FDJU)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
€25.00
▲(8.98% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/23/26
The score is held back primarily by financial quality concerns (2025 net income drop and higher leverage) and a weak technical setup with the stock trading below key moving averages. Offsetting factors include strong cash generation and a high dividend yield, while earnings-call guidance suggests resilience but remains constrained by significant tax and regulatory headwinds.
Positive Factors
Strong free cash flow generation
FDJ’s exceptionally high free cash flow and recurring EBITDA-to-cash conversion (87%) create a durable buffer to fund dividends, targeted debt reduction, capex and tech investments. Persistent cash conversion supports financial flexibility versus peers amid regulatory headwinds.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage and weaker equity cushion
Debt rising to near 2x equity and a declining equity base reduce financial flexibility and increase vulnerability to shocks. Higher leverage limits strategic optionality (M&A, sustained buybacks) and amplifies the impact of interest, tax or revenue shocks on solvency and ratings over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong free cash flow generation
FDJ’s exceptionally high free cash flow and recurring EBITDA-to-cash conversion (87%) create a durable buffer to fund dividends, targeted debt reduction, capex and tech investments. Persistent cash conversion supports financial flexibility versus peers amid regulatory headwinds.
Read all positive factors
La Francaise des Jeux SA (FDJU) vs. iShares MSCI France ETF (EWQ)
Market Cap
€4.57B
Dividend Yield8.77%
Average Volume (3M)338.27K
Price to Earnings (P/E)24.9
Beta (1Y)0.51
Revenue Growth19.98%
EPS Growth-55.99%
CountryFR
Employees5,678
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryGambling, Resorts & Casinos
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.43
Shares Outstanding185,270,000
10 Day Avg. Volume394,593
30 Day Avg. Volume338,269
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.44
Price to Book (P/B)4.49
Price to Sales (P/S)1.19
P/FCF Ratio8.82
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
€26.46Price Target Upside15.34% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)2.44
Revenue Forecast (FY)€3.68B
La Francaise des Jeux SA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
FDJ United engages in the gaming operation and distribution business in France and internationally. The company operates through Lottery; Sports Betting and Online Gaming Open to Competition; and Other Activities segments. It offers lottery games,...
How the Company Makes Money
FDJ primarily makes money by operating regulated gambling games and retaining a portion of stakes placed by players (often referred to as gross gaming revenue, i.e., stakes minus winnings paid out to players). Its key revenue streams are: (1) Lott...
La Francaise des Jeux SA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 19, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presents a mixed but resilient picture. Highlights include record free cash flow, strong LSF performance, completion of the Kindred integration, accelerated operational efficiencies (performance plan upgraded to €150m), and a proposed dividend increase — all signals of financial strength and execution. Offsetting these positives are material tax and regulatory headwinds (notably in the Netherlands and new UK taxation), an underperforming OBG BU with a sharp margin decline, sizeable nonrecurring impairments and higher short-term IT costs tied to platform migrations. Management’s actions (performance plan, tech roadmap, brand consolidation and responsible-gaming investments) and strong cash generation mitigate many risks, but the near-term outlook remains challenged by taxes and regulatory uncertainty.Positive Updates
Strong overall financial and cash generation
Group GGR c.€8.7bn, revenue c.€3.7bn and recurring EBITDA €902m (margin 24.5%). Record free cash flow €782m, +16% YoY, with recurring EBITDA-to-cash conversion at 87% (above the >80% guidance). Net financial debt €1.7bn (down ~€100m) and leverage ~1.9x.
Negative Updates
Significant tax and regulatory headwinds
Cumulative gaming tax increases (France, Netherlands, Romania, Sweden, others) reduced net gaming revenue by ~3% in 2025 and had >€50m negative impact on revenue and EBITDA in FY25. Management cites a 2026 incremental calendar effect: ~€140m impact on NGR vs 2024 and >€150m impact on EBITDA when including advertising tax. UK tax alone ~€30m in 2026 (rising to >€40m in 2027). Average tax on GGR ~59.9% (vs 58.5% in 2024).
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong overall financial and cash generation
Group GGR c.€8.7bn, revenue c.€3.7bn and recurring EBITDA €902m (margin 24.5%). Record free cash flow €782m, +16% YoY, with recurring EBITDA-to-cash conversion at 87% (above the >80% guidance). Net financial debt €1.7bn (down ~€100m) and leverage ~1.9x.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
FDJ United’s 2026 guidance targets GGR growth (stronger in H2) with OBG expected to drive higher GGR growth than LSF though revenue growth should be broadly comparable given new taxes, and management is targeting stability in recurring EBITDA margin versus 2025 (group 24.5%; LSF 36%; OBG 20%) while continuing the performance plan (€50m delivered in 2025, ~€50m incremental in 2026 for a ~€100m cumulative effect in 2026 and a raised target of €150m of recurrent efficiencies by end‑2028). Model assumptions include cumulative 2026 tax/calendar effects of ~€140m on NGR (>€150m EBITDA impact including ad tax), a UK tax hit of ~€30m in 2026 (rising to >€40m in 2027), Romanian annualization of ~€8m, PPA amortization ~€200m gross (~€170m net), CapEx ~€160m (c.4–5% of revenue), adjusted net income c.€487m, free cash‑flow conversion >80% (2025 was 87% with FCF €782m), net debt reduction of ~€100m (net debt/recurring EBITDA ~1.9x), and a proposed dividend of €2.10 per share with a commitment to annual increases and a payout policy above ~75% of adjusted net income.La Francaise des Jeux SA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
45
Neutral
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 3.68B | 3.07B | 2.62B | 2.46B | 2.26B |
| Gross Profit | 1.21B | 1.70B | 1.23B | 1.04B | 934.80M |
| EBITDA | 902.00M | 802.50M | 703.70M | 590.20M | 547.50M |
| Net Income | 175.90M | 398.80M | 425.10M | 307.90M | 294.20M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 5.84B | 6.56B | 3.76B | 3.34B | 3.21B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 794.10M | 843.20M | 749.70M | 720.40M | 688.40M |
| Total Debt | 2.37B | 2.33B | 428.80M | 468.20M | 518.90M |
| Total Liabilities | 4.86B | 5.37B | 2.69B | 2.41B | 2.38B |
| Stockholders Equity | 974.80M | 1.19B | 1.07B | 925.40M | 829.10M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 496.10M | 427.10M | 504.20M | 299.70M | 522.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 765.40M | 577.00M | 628.90M | 403.80M | 597.50M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -278.50M | -1.76B | -21.70M | -181.70M | -301.50M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -523.80M | 1.33B | -580.50M | -315.20M | -366.80M |
La Francaise des Jeux SA Technical Analysis
Positive
22.94
Price Trends
24.94
Positive
24.04
Positive
25.88
Positive
Market Momentum
0.33
Negative
67.32
Neutral
87.16
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FR:FDJU, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 22.94 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 25.46, below the 50-day MA of 24.94, and below the 200-day MA of 25.88, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.33 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.32 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.16 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FR:FDJU.
La Francaise des Jeux SA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
FR:FDJU
La Francaise des Jeux SA
24.72
-4.47
-15.31%
FR:BAIN
Monte-Carlo Societe des Bains de Mer
130.50
31.60
31.95%
FR:PARP
Groupe Partouche SA
17.90
0.18
1.04%
FR:FCMC
Societe Fermiere du Casino Municipal de Cannes SA
2,280.00
830.00
57.24%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.