BNP Paribas (BNP) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €97.55B
• Dividend Yield: 9.16%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.24M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 7.4
• Beta (1Y): 1.28
• Revenue Growth: -6.55%
• EPS Growth: 14.18%
• Country: FR
• Employees: 178,000
• Sector: General
• Sector Strength: N/A
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 2.63
• Shares Outstanding: 1,116,784,800
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,668,600
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,236,784
• PEG Ratio: 0.98
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.72
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.76
• P/FCF Ratio: 7.36
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €98.60
• Price Target Upside: 10.39% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11
• EPS Forecast (FY): 11.8
• Revenue Forecast (FY): €54.43B

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: €102.00 ▲(14.20% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 02/07/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 02/07/26

The score is driven primarily by mixed financial quality—steady profitability but constrained by high leverage and volatile cash flows—while valuation is a clear positive (low P/E and high dividend yield). Technicals are supportive but somewhat overextended (RSI ~75), moderating the overall rating.

Positive Factors

Diversified Business Model

BNP Paribas' multi‑segment business (retail, corporate/institutional, asset management, investment solutions) provides durable revenue diversification, reducing dependence on any single cycle. This structural mix supports cross‑sell, steady fee streams, and resilience across economic conditions.

Steady Profitability and ROE

Consistent net income and mid‑single digit ROE indicate an entrenched earnings base. Durable profitability enables reinvestment, dividend capacity and regulatory capital build, and gives management flexibility to fund strategic initiatives through normal cycles.

Large Equity Base and Scale

A substantial equity buffer and large asset base provide loss absorption, support regulatory capital ratios, and enable scale benefits. Size helps preserve client relationships and market access, underpinning long‑term competitive position in European banking.

Negative Factors

Materially Higher Leverage

The rise in leverage materially increases sensitivity to funding costs and credit stress. Higher debt/equity constrains capital flexibility, raises refinancing risk in adverse markets, and can amplify losses during downturns, pressuring long‑term solvency metrics.

Volatile Cash Generation

Highly uneven operating and free cash flow reduces predictability of internal funding for dividends, buybacks and loan growth. This variability forces reliance on external markets or capital actions in weak years, increasing structural funding and execution risk.

Revenue and Margin Volatility

Large swings in revenue and inconsistent margins weaken earnings quality and make forecasting and capital allocation harder. Structural volatility limits the bank's ability to plan long‑term investments and may increase regulatory scrutiny of provisioning.

BNP Paribas Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

BNP Paribas SA provides a range of banking and financial services in Europe, North America, Asia Pacific, and internationally. The company offers corporate and institutional banking services, such as consulting, financing and transaction banking for corporate clients and institutional investors; capital markets investment and financing; securities clearing, and custody services. It also provides commercial, and personal banking and services, including financing and leasing services, financing of individuals, and digital banking services, as well as current and savings account products, equipment leasing and financing solutions, and consumer loans. In addition, the company offers investment and protection services, which includes borrowers' insurance, which protects the insured party from the unexpected when taking out a mortgage, personal, auto, or consumer loan; savings and protection solutions comprising life insurance, employee savings, retirement savings, etc.; asset management, wealth management, and real estate services. The company was formerly known as Banque Nationale de Paris and changed its name to BNP Paribas SA in May 2000. BNP Paribas SA was founded in 1822 and is headquartered in Paris, France.

How the Company Makes Money

BNP Paribas generates revenue through multiple avenues, primarily through its banking operations. Key revenue streams include interest income from loans and advances, fees from banking services, asset management fees, and commissions from investment banking activities. The bank's retail banking segment contributes significantly to its earnings through personal and business banking services. Corporate and institutional banking provides revenues through advisory services, capital markets activities, and trade finance. Additionally, BNP Paribas has strategic partnerships and joint ventures that enhance its service offerings and market reach, which further contribute to its overall profitability.

BNP Paribas Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability is solid and fairly steady (net income ~€9.5–€11.7B and ~8%–9% ROE), but the score is held back by meaningfully higher leverage versus 2022 (debt-to-equity ~5.4x–6.4x in 2023–2025) and pronounced cash-flow volatility, including deeply negative operating/free cash flow in 2023–2024 before a rebound in 2025.

Income Statement

Profitability is solid and fairly steady: net income has remained around €9.5–€11.7B from 2021–2025, with return from operations supported by positive EBIT margins most years. Revenue growth is volatile (including a very large jump in 2025 and sharp swings in prior years), which reduces confidence in the underlying growth trajectory. Margins also show inconsistency across years (notably much lower net margin in 2025 versus 2023–2024), indicating earnings quality and comparability may be uneven period to period.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows stable equity (€112.8B to €128.1B range) and consistent returns on equity around ~8%–9%, which is constructive for a large bank. However, leverage is high and has risen meaningfully versus 2022: debt-to-equity moved from ~2.4x (2022) back to ~5.4x–6.4x (2023–2025), which increases sensitivity to funding conditions and credit-cycle stress. Overall asset size is large and relatively steady, but the leverage profile is the key constraint on the score.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is the most volatile area. Operating and free cash flow were deeply negative in 2023 and 2024, then rebounded to positive in 2025, creating an uneven pattern that limits visibility. While 2025 free cash flow covered a large portion of net income (about 81%), the negative cash flow years and declining free cash flow growth in 2025 point to higher variability in cash conversion and funding dynamics across periods.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	119.13B	45.74B	42.82B	42.47B	107.81B
Gross Profit	68.80B	65.87B	59.73B	42.47B	41.63B
EBITDA	18.66B	23.46B	17.97B	19.68B	13.65B
Net Income	12.22B	11.69B	10.97B	9.85B	9.49B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.79T	2.70T	2.59T	2.67T	2.63T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	326.96B	786.01B	296.61B	474.92B	484.27B
Total Debt	809.21B	727.82B	673.44B	293.98B	718.22B
Total Liabilities	2.66T	2.57T	2.46T	2.55T	2.52T
Stockholders Equity	125.51B	128.14B	123.74B	121.24B	117.89B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	12.28B	-99.51B	-36.46B	21.28B	26.18B
Operating Cash Flow	15.16B	-97.38B	-34.24B	23.81B	27.84B
Investing Cash Flow	25.35B	-180.00M	7.30B	-78.81B	13.35B
Financing Cash Flow	-6.82B	-6.42B	-4.68B	9.25B	14.52B

BNP Paribas Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 89.32
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FR:BNP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 89.32 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 93.11, above the 50-day MA of 88.51, and above the 200-day MA of 77.83, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.28 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.64 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 34.82 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for FR:BNP.

BNP Paribas Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BNP	68 Neutral	€97.55B	7.40	9.50%	9.16%	-6.55%	14.18%
ACA	60 Neutral	€53.18B	4.65	10.82%	6.26%	-3.99%	14.76%
Sector *	55 Neutral	$6.65B	3.83	-15.92%	6.20%	10.91%	7.18%
GLE	54 Neutral	€45.56B	9.82	7.47%	2.49%	-14.11%	180.83%