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Flux Power Holdings (FLUX)
NASDAQ:FLUX
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Flux Power Holdings
(NASDAQ:FLUX)
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Rating:46Neutral
Price Target:
$1.00
▼(-21.26% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/19/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (ongoing losses and renewed TTM cash burn) and bearish technicals (price below major moving averages with negative MACD). The earnings call adds some support due to a first profitable quarter and improving margins/expenses, but near-term guidance risk from a major customer capital freeze and low cash materially caps the overall rating.
Positive Factors
First-time Profitability
Achieving the first reported net profit signals that operating leverage and recent cost reductions can produce sustainable positive results. If management maintains expense discipline and replaces lost customer volume, profitability can underpin reinvestment, reduce financing needs, and validate the business model over the next 2–6 months.
Product, Software & IP Strength
New telematics/software and a large installed base create a durable path to high‑margin recurring revenue and stronger customer lock‑in. AI-driven uptime gains and state‑of‑health IP position Flux to monetize lifecycle services, reducing dependence on one‑off pack sales and improving long‑term margin stability.
Margin & Cost Discipline
Material sequential opex cuts and a swing to positive adjusted EBITDA show management can structurally lower the expense run rate. Sustained cost control improves the likelihood that future revenue volatility won't immediately erode margins, supporting a more resilient operating model over coming quarters.
Negative Factors
Weak Cash Generation
Persistent TTM cash burn and minimal cash on hand create a structural liquidity vulnerability. With roughly negative $5M OCF and limited reserves, the company may need external financing or draw on credit lines, which can dilute equity or increase leverage and constrain investments in sales and product rollouts.
Customer Concentration / Capital Freeze
Dependence on a few large buyers means a single customer's capital restrictions can remove a sizable portion of demand. Replacing that volume requires time, OEM traction, and sales execution, making near‑to‑medium term revenue visibility and planning structurally uncertain until customer diversification improves.
Softer Revenue & Margin Pressure
Declining revenue and persistent negative operating/net margins indicate demand and profitability are not yet stabilized. Tariff cost pressures can further squeeze gross margins if not offset by pricing or efficiency, limiting the company's ability to convert product and software gains into consistent earnings.
Flux Power Holdings (FLUX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$27.10M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)498.09K
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.4
Beta (1Y)1.57
Revenue Growth2.14%
EPS Growth5.01%
CountryUS
Employees119
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryElectrical Equipment & Parts
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.03
Shares Outstanding21,340,136
10 Day Avg. Volume145,230
30 Day Avg. Volume498,092
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.19
Price to Book (P/B)-4.67
Price to Sales (P/S)0.38
P/FCF Ratio-587.07
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.98
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.44
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.34
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-9.75
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$5.33Price Target Upside319.69% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.24
Revenue Forecast (FY)$65.25M
Flux Power Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionFlux Power Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiary Flux Power, Inc., designs, develops, manufactures, and sells lithium-ion energy storage solutions for lift trucks, airport ground support equipment, and other industrial and commercial applications in the United States. It offers battery management system (BMS) that provides cell balancing, charging, discharging, monitoring, and communication between the pack and the forklift. The company also provides 24-volt onboard chargers for its Class 3 Walkie LiFT packs; and smart wall mounted chargers to interface with its BMS. The company sells its products directly to small companies and end-users, as well as through original equipment manufacturers, lift equipment dealers, and battery distributors. Flux Power Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 1998 and is based in Vista, California.
How the Company Makes MoneyFlux Power primarily makes money by selling lithium-ion battery packs and related energy storage solutions to customers using industrial and commercial electric equipment, with a major focus on the material handling/forklift market. Revenue is generally recognized from product sales (battery packs/systems) delivered to equipment OEMs, dealers/integrators, and end-users, depending on the customer channel. The company’s earnings are influenced by the volume of battery systems shipped, product mix (capacity/voltage/form factor tailored to specific vehicles), pricing, and its ability to manage manufacturing and component costs. Flux Power may also generate revenue from services and support tied to its battery systems (e.g., integration support, maintenance/service-related offerings, monitoring/telematics-enabled support), but specific amounts or relative contribution are null. Significant partnerships or customer concentration details are null.
Flux Power Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Backlog
Represents the value of unfulfilled orders, showing future revenue visibility and overall product demand strength.
Represents the value of unfulfilled orders, showing future revenue visibility and overall product demand strength.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyFlux Power Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 12, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented meaningful operational and financial progress: a first-ever profitable quarter, sizable sequential margin and expense improvements, positive adjusted EBITDA, and substantial product and software advancements (SkyLink, Sky EMS, state-of-health patent) that create a path to recurring revenue. However, material near-term risk was highlighted by a major customer's capital freeze that may significantly reduce revenue in Q3 and parts of calendar 2026, plus a modest cash balance and tariff-related cost pressures. On balance the company demonstrated strong internal execution and product differentiation but faces tangible short-term demand and liquidity risks that will determine whether profitability is sustained while new sales efforts ramp.Q2-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
First-Time Net Profitability
Reported net income of $600,000 ($0.03/share) in Q2 FY2026, the company's first profitable quarter in its history, compared to net losses of $2.6M in the prior quarter and $1.9M in the year-ago quarter.
Strong Sequential Revenue and Margin Improvement
Revenue for Q2 was $14.1M, up 6.8% sequentially from $13.2M, while gross margin expanded to 34.7% from 28.6% sequentially (a 610 basis point improvement) and from 32.5% year-ago (up 220 bps).
Operating Expense Reductions and Improved Profitability Metrics
Operating expenses declined ~31% sequentially to $4.1M from $5.9M driven by cost reduction initiatives and a ~$500k reversal of accrued employee bonuses. Adjusted EBITDA turned positive at $1.5M (vs. a -$1.4M loss last quarter) and non-GAAP net income was $1.0M ($0.04/share).
Product and Technology Advancements (SkyLink)
Released next-generation SkyLink telematics (quad-core 64-bit processor, 4x sensors versus prior generation, Wi-Fi/Bluetooth/cellular/GPS, onboard analytics/ML). SkyLink is in beta at multiple sites and planned for broad availability in a couple months.
Software Upgrades and Monetization Path
Sky EMS upgrades include AI-driven intelligent alerting expected to increase uptime by 10%–30% and a mobile interface estimated to reduce issue recognition time by 15%–40%. Company plans tiered software (standard and premium) to create recurring, high-margin revenue from 30,000+ batteries in the field.
State-of-Health Patent and IP Strength
Received a broad patent for state-of-health algorithms last quarter; company is integrating this capability into premium software offerings to enable lifecycle forecasting and capacity planning monetization opportunities.
Targeted Commercial Hiring and OEM Focus
Added experienced OEM Director, hiring VP of Sales for material handling and additional sales reps (California, Texas) to expand OEM and dealer channel coverage and pursue replacement/new customers.
Negative Updates
Major Customer Capital Freeze — Near-Term Revenue Risk
The company's largest customer communicated a capital freeze that may materially reduce revenue in Q3 and could impact a significant portion of calendar 2026, creating substantial near-term demand uncertainty.
Year-Over-Year Revenue Decline
Revenue declined year-over-year by 16.1% (from $16.8M in Q2 FY2025 to $14.1M in Q2 FY2026), indicating softer demand versus the prior year period.
Low Cash Balance and Balance Sheet Concentration
Cash and cash equivalents fell to $900,000 from $1.3M on 6/30/2025 (a ~30.8% decline). The company has dependence on availability under a $16.0M line of credit subject to collateral and covenants.
Tariff-Related Cost Pressures
Management noted lingering tariff effects and increased costs from tariffs that are outside the company's control, which could pressure margins if not offset by pricing or further cost reductions.
Concentration and Market Timing Risk
Dependence on a few large customers (including the one undergoing a capital freeze) and the timing required to replace that volume pose execution risk; near-term revenue replacement will require successful sales hires and OEM traction.
Company Guidance
Management guided that, despite achieving Q2 profitability (Q2 revenue $14.1M; gross margin 34.7%, a 610‑basis‑point sequential increase; operating expenses $4.1M, ~31% lower sequentially; net income $600K or $0.03/share; non‑GAAP net income $1.0M or $0.04/share; adjusted EBITDA +$1.5M; cash $900K; $16M borrowing capacity) they expect materially lower revenue in Q3 as a significant customer has implemented a capital freeze that may impact a sizable portion of calendar 2026, and have therefore enacted further cost‑reduction actions to lower the expense run rate. Longer term they reiterated an 8.8% CAGR for the lithium‑ion forklift segment through 2035, plan to roll out SkyLink telematics in a couple of months (and have 30,000+ batteries in the field), introduced GA315 and four GSE product lines, and highlighted software monetization opportunities—intelligent AI alerts that can improve uptime by 10–30% and mobile access that can reduce issue‑recognition time by 15–40%—backed by a newly granted state‑of‑health patent.Flux Power Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Mixed fundamentals: revenue is slightly down TTM and the company remains unprofitable (negative EBIT and net margins). Gross margin is relatively healthy (~32%) and leverage looks improved (debt ~$5.7M vs. equity ~$7.5M), but TTM operating and free cash flow are meaningfully negative again (OCF about -$5.0M; FCF about -$5.3M), keeping liquidity/funding risk elevated.Income Statement
TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue was about $60.8M and slightly down versus the prior year (reported growth around -4.3%). Profitability remains the key weakness: gross margin is a solid ~32%, but the company is still operating at a loss (EBIT margin ~-9%) and net losses persist (net margin ~-12%). The positive is that losses are materially narrower than earlier years (2021–2022 showed much deeper negative margins), indicating an improving but still unprofitable trajectory.34
Negative
Balance Sheet
Leverage looks more manageable in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) with total debt around $5.7M against ~$7.5M of equity, suggesting balance sheet repair versus the prior year when equity was near-zero and leverage appeared very high. Total assets are ~$30.1M, providing a reasonable base, but the recent history of weak/volatile equity levels increases financial risk and limits flexibility if operating losses continue.46
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash generation is the weakest area. TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow was about -$5.0M and free cash flow about -$5.3M, meaning the business is still consuming cash. While free cash flow was closer to breakeven in the 2025 annual period (roughly -$0.04M) versus large deficits in earlier years, the latest TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) reverts to meaningfully negative cash burn, raising funding and liquidity pressure if not stabilized.23
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Dec 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 60.77M | 66.43M | 60.82M | 66.49M | 42.33M | 26.26M |
| Gross Profit | 19.72M | 21.74M | 17.23M | 15.89M | 5.61M | 5.79M |
| EBITDA | -2.72M | -4.03M | -5.57M | -5.51M | -15.65M | -13.20M |
| Net Income | -5.08M | -6.67M | -8.33M | -7.74M | -16.47M | -12.79M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 30.11M | 34.75M | 32.30M | 35.70M | 29.06M | 26.26M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 928.00K | 1.33M | 643.00K | 2.38M | 485.00K | 4.71M |
| Total Debt | 5.90M | 16.06M | 16.16M | 13.03M | 7.75M | 3.30M |
| Total Liabilities | 22.58M | 40.16M | 32.11M | 26.16M | 16.95M | 13.26M |
| Stockholders Equity | 7.54M | -5.40M | 194.00K | 9.55M | 12.11M | 13.01M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -8.06M | -43.00K | -5.65M | -4.61M | -24.69M | -19.46M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -7.44M | 610.00K | -4.80M | -3.57M | -23.89M | -18.36M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -621.00K | -653.00K | -853.00K | -1.02M | -797.00K | -1.10M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 8.10M | 734.00K | 3.92M | 6.49M | 20.46M | 23.45M |
Flux Power Holdings Technical Analysis
Negative
1.27
Price Trends
1.41
Negative
1.76
Negative
2.11
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.02
Positive
42.48
Neutral
11.07
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FLUX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.27 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.45, below the 50-day MA of 1.41, and below the 200-day MA of 2.11, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.48 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.07 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for FLUX.
Flux Power Holdings Risk Analysis
Flux Power Holdings disclosed 33 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Flux Power Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Flux Power Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
64 Neutral | $111.88M | ― | -4.35% | ― | 12.94% | -81.09% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
56 Neutral | $1.98B | -0.66 | -249.07% | ― | ― | -394.37% | |
51 Neutral | $23.59M | -1.45 | 209.00% | ― | ― | 61.78% | |
48 Neutral | $84.12M | 7.57 | -5.40% | ― | -22.02% | -156.65% | |
46 Neutral | $27.10M | 10.40 | 365.40% | ― | 2.14% | 5.01% | |
45 Neutral | $34.78M | -0.43 | -265.36% | ― | -3.53% | 24.37% |
* Industrials Sector Average
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.